Tomorrow is UFC 153 live from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil! It should be a pretty good card since Brazilians are in every fight and they are the best mixed martial artists. The main event of UFC Middleweight Champion and king of MMA Anderson Silva fighting at light heavyweight for the first time in three years against Stephan Bonnar in what UFC President Dana White has said is a “fun fight” should be pretty exciting, and frankly any time Silva is in action the card is worth getting. Also, Minotauro Nogueira is back in action for the first time in 10 months against Dave Herman. This is a show that was in danger thanks to injuries, but it now promises to have a fun top three fights, and a good card overall if Jon Fitch doesn’t win. Let’s check out what’s on tap.
Demian Maia (16-4) vs. Rick Story (14-5): I won’t lie to you, this fight holds no interest to me. I know I’ve seen Rick Story fight a few times but I can’t remember anything other than his stupid nickname, “The Horror.” Well hopefully the American Horror Story (see what I did there?) loses to the Brazilian Maia. This is Maia’s second fight at welterweight, a weight he hopes to have some success in since he had nothing to offer at middleweight anymore. Maia had a strange TKO victory over Dong Hyun Kim at 148 in which he took Kim down and punched him twice and Kim was done because he had a muscle spasm. Maia has eight submission wins, and unless he gets one on Story this fight is going to decision. Maia wins a decision.
Phil Davis (9-1, 1NC) vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 1NC): This is essentially a continuation of their fight that went a minute and a half at the UFC on Fox card in August. Davis accidently poked the Brazilian Prado in the eye and it was declared a no contest when Prado couldn’t continue. Davis has some good wrestling and the UFC is high on him, hoping he’ll become a contender one day. Prado has one decision win and seven knockout victories on his record. He could be pumped up in front of the Brazilian crowd and add an eighth to that, but I don’t think so. Davis wins a decision.
Jon Fitch (26-4-1, 1NC) vs. Erick Silva (14-2, 1NC): Nap time! Jon Fitch is the most boring fighter in history. I have fallen asleep during his fights before, and I plan on doing it again. Unless of course this goes like Fitch’s last fight, in which Johny Hendricks knocked him out in 12 seconds. Silva has shown a penchant for going for the finish these last two years and is currently 2-1 in the UFC with his loss being a DQ for strikes to the back of the head. His two wins were by KO and by submission. Fitch is the king of decision wins in the UFC and a win by decision tomorrow gives him the UFC record with 10. Silva is an exciting prospect though, and Fitch got whooped by BJ Penn in the first round of their fight and then was knocked out in 12 seconds. Silva by TKO in round 2.
Glover Teixeira (18-2) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-5): Teixeira is one of the big light heavyweight prospects right now. He will likely be an opponent for Jon Jones within the next year or so if he keeps up his winning ways. He has good boxing and jiu jitsu. Maldonado is replacing Rampage Jackson, who pulled out of this fight with an injury. Maldonado is riding a two fight losing streak, but has the fact he has never lost by knockout going for him. Sadly, Teixeira is one of those guys like Alexander Gustafsson and Phil Davis who are expected to be the next batch of contenders for that belt Jon Jones has. Teixeira by first round knockout.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (33-7-1, 1NC) vs. Dave Herman (21-4): Last year it seemed like Big Nog was going to reclaim his title as the greatest heavyweight fighter in the universe. He took a year off to get healthy after getting laid out by Cain Velasquez in 2010, and last year knocked out Brendan Schaub in Rio. Next up was Frank Mir, and Nog was about to knock him out until he decided that the best way to get revenge for Mir knocking him out would be to make him submit. Nogueira went for a choke and Mir managed to reverse it into a kimura and broke Nog’s arm, putting him on the shelf for these last 10 months. Nog is fighting in his home country for just the second time ever, and Herman has been knocked out twice this year. Herman’s striking could give Nog some problems if he’s got a lot of ring rust, but if not, Minotauro will rise again. Here is a guy who has beautiful boxing and the greatest jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Nogueira by second round submission.
Anderson Silva (30-4) vs. Stephan Bonnar (17-7): This fight will only be three rounds rather than the usual five for a main event. After injuries forced the featherweight title fight from the card, Silva offered to fight at light heavyweight to give the card a main event. The last time Anderson Silva fought at light heavyweight, he humiliated Ultimate Fighter season one winner Forrest Griffin. Tomorrow he faces Griffin’s opponent from the TUF Finale, Stephan Bonnar. The UFC says Griffin-Bonnar is the greatest fight in UFC history, and I can say I was one of those people lucky enough to turn on Spike that night and catch the insane war they had seven years ago. That night Bonnar lost a close decision, and that could very well be the case when he steps in the octagon against the GOAT on Saturday. Bonnar has two TKO losses in his career, both of them because of cuts and not because of strikes.
He has never been actually finished in his career, be it by knockout or submission. Of course, Yushin Okami hadn’t been finished for eight years until he fought Silva last year, and Vitor Belfort had never been knocked clean out in his career until he fought Silva either. Bonnar is a very tough fighter and always a game opponent, but Anderson Silva has the greatest striking in MMA history. Bonnar’s best bet is to get in on Silva, but the clinch against Anderson is so dangerous. Watch Silva’s fights with Rich Franklin for a textbook case as to why you don’t want to get in the clinch. Bonnar will also want to get Silva to the ground, but Travis Lutter, Dan Henderson, and Chael Sonnen all got finished doing that. Silva’s strength may not be what it is at middleweight since Bonnar is a big guy, but he remains the most talented fighter in the history of the sport. Bonnar can give Silva a very good fight and maybe force a decision, but ultimately it is still Anderson Silva. Stephan Bonnar is on a three fight win streak and always gives his best, but it is still Anderson Silva in Brazil. Silva wins by third round TKO.
That's everything. Watch this show since Anderson Silva's career is winding down and we need to cherish each performance since you don't know when that will be it.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Friday, October 12, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Joe's UFC 144 Predictions
This Saturday is the UFC’s first show in Japan since December of 2000. It will be taking place in the Saitama Super Arena, the legendary arena which used to host the old PRIDE shows and is even featured in the disgustingly awesome UFC Undisputed 3 video game. I’m not paid to advertise but the game is so nasty I feel I need to give it some props somehow. While most UFC shows run about three hours, this show is going to run about four, meaning for us east coast dwellers it won’t be done until around two in the morning. A great deal of coffee will be consumed to stay alert to enjoy what should be a pretty awesome card, highlighted by a main even that promises to blow doors down. As was once a regular occurrence here before work and school prevented as many updates, there are predictions for what hopefully will be a great show.
Anthony Pettis (14-2) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6): Lauzon is coming off a win over Melvin Guillard which was supposed to be Guillard’s step into the big time but instead he threw a good punch and started celebrating, only for Lauzon to choke him out 47 seconds into the fight. Pettis defeated Ben Henderson and gave us one of the all-time great MMA highlights to become WEC Lightweight Champion before the UFC merger, but he lost to Clay Guida then won a split decision over Jeremy Stephens so a bout between champions with Frankie Edgar never came to fruition. As is the case with most lightweight fights, it should be very exciting. Lauzon has nasty submissions and has only been to decision once in his career, but I think that changes on Saturday. Pettis has good submissions also so I don’t think he’ll get caught in something, and he has a pretty clear stand-up advantage that I think he’ll exploit. I think Pettis by decision.
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14): Hioki is currently ranked as one of the top featherweights in the world but he is in for a challenge with Palaszewski. Hioki does have great submissions but he is coming off a less than stellar split decision victory while Palaszekski is coming off a big time knockout win over Tyson Griffin. Palaszewski has more wins by submission than Hioki (12 to 9) and considerably more by knockout (17 to 4). Even though Hioki will most likely be pumped up fighting in front of his home crowd, I think Palaszewski wins by second round TKO.
Yushin Okami (26-6) vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4): The last time the world saw Yushin Okami, Anderson Silva was demoralizing him in front of a rabid crowd in Rio. Okami has only lost by TKO twice in his career, in that fight with Silva and all the way back in 2003. I don’t think Boetsch knocking him out is worth considering. I think this fight will be pretty straight forward with Okami feeding off the energy from the Japanese crowd and using his wrestling to keep Boetsch down for most of the fight. I think Okami wins a decision.
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1): Sexyama and Shields have both been very unimpressive in the UFC. Shields was undefeated for six years entering the UFC and first won a nonsense decision over Martin Kampmann and then had one of the worst fights ever with Georges St-Pierre, losing a boring decision. Then Jake Ellenberger cleaned him out inside of a minute. Akiyama won a very close split decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100 and has gone on to lose the three fights he’s had since then. Whoever loses most likely is going to have a difficult time staying in the UFC. The fact Shields may have the advantage on the feet says how rough this fight is going to be. Akiyama has also had serious cardio problems every time I’ve seen him so I expect Shields to just outlast him. While Akiyama wins Fight of the Night a lot, he doesn't win a lot. I expect this fight to be boring and Shields will win by decision.
Mark Hunt (7-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6): Hunt is 37 and known for his impressive run in PRIDE, beating Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. After a good stretch in PRIDE, Hunt went on a six fight losing streak though he has won his last two. Kongo has heavy hands and good kickboxing. Hunt is also a kickboxer and has only been knocked out once in MMA competition with the rest of his losses coming by way of submission. Luckily Hunt won’t have to worry about submissions here but Kongo has never been knocked out and is going to have a pretty big reach and height advantage over Hunt and that is most likely going to seal Hunt’s fate. Kongo wins by first round knockout.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2): Bader was working his way towards the top of the light heavyweight division until he faced Jon Jones and got choked out, then faced Tito Ortiz and got choked out. He knocked out Jason Brilz in just over a minute at 139 and is looking to become a contender again. It has been over three years since Rampage knocked anybody out and nobody is really sure just how serious he is about fighting still. It is safe to assume Rampage is going to be pumped about his return to Japan since he was an animal in PRIDE and constantly talks about how those were the best days of his career and how much he loves Japan. People think Bader’s wrestling will help him, but you can’t take Rampage down very easily and people forget Rampage does have good wrestling. The fight isn’t going to the ground, and after we saw Bader get rocked by Tito Ortiz do you really think an inspired Rampage fighting in the place he’s been begging to fight in for ages won’t put him down? Rampage wins by second round knockout.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2): Every time I see either of these two it always winds up being one of the craziest fights. Henderson’s fight with Anthony Pettis for the WEC Lightweight title was brilliant and his last fight with Clay Guida was an epic that left me tired out just from watching it. Edgar of course won back-to-back fights over BJ Penn, not even losing a single round in their second fight. He then went on to have two of the greatest fights of all time in his second and third bouts with Gray Maynard. I’ve seen every Lightweight Championship fight Frankie Edgar has had and I’ve learned one thing from them: Frankie Edgar can never be counted out. Henderson is a complete fighter and an amazing grappler with wicked submissions, but I can’t see him finishing Edgar. Maybe he gets him with a submission in the championship rounds, but I think it is far more likely that fight goes to decision.
I have a hard time believing that Henderson can finish Edgar if BJ Penn didn’t finish Edgar in two fights and Edgar was fine after the mauling he took at the hands of Gray Maynard in the first round of their last two fights. Also Frankie Edgar never finishes fights aside from laying out Maynard a few months ago so I’m feeling pretty good about this being a decision. Edgar has good wrestling but he most likely will try to keep the fight standing since he is faster and for some reason people can’t figure out his boxing game, and you also don’t want Henderson grappling with you since he’ll do work. Edgar is a small lightweight so Ben Smooth will have a size advantage and Henderson, like Edgar, has tremendous cardio and is going to keep coming for all five rounds. I don’t like this type of speculation before the fight even happens, but this could very well be one of the best fights we will ever see. It should be exciting and a non-stop battle for five rounds. in which Edgar wins a close decision.
So that's what it is. It should be a great show and I'm more pumped for this than I have been for any UFC show in a long time.
Anthony Pettis (14-2) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6): Lauzon is coming off a win over Melvin Guillard which was supposed to be Guillard’s step into the big time but instead he threw a good punch and started celebrating, only for Lauzon to choke him out 47 seconds into the fight. Pettis defeated Ben Henderson and gave us one of the all-time great MMA highlights to become WEC Lightweight Champion before the UFC merger, but he lost to Clay Guida then won a split decision over Jeremy Stephens so a bout between champions with Frankie Edgar never came to fruition. As is the case with most lightweight fights, it should be very exciting. Lauzon has nasty submissions and has only been to decision once in his career, but I think that changes on Saturday. Pettis has good submissions also so I don’t think he’ll get caught in something, and he has a pretty clear stand-up advantage that I think he’ll exploit. I think Pettis by decision.
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14): Hioki is currently ranked as one of the top featherweights in the world but he is in for a challenge with Palaszewski. Hioki does have great submissions but he is coming off a less than stellar split decision victory while Palaszekski is coming off a big time knockout win over Tyson Griffin. Palaszewski has more wins by submission than Hioki (12 to 9) and considerably more by knockout (17 to 4). Even though Hioki will most likely be pumped up fighting in front of his home crowd, I think Palaszewski wins by second round TKO.
Yushin Okami (26-6) vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4): The last time the world saw Yushin Okami, Anderson Silva was demoralizing him in front of a rabid crowd in Rio. Okami has only lost by TKO twice in his career, in that fight with Silva and all the way back in 2003. I don’t think Boetsch knocking him out is worth considering. I think this fight will be pretty straight forward with Okami feeding off the energy from the Japanese crowd and using his wrestling to keep Boetsch down for most of the fight. I think Okami wins a decision.
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1): Sexyama and Shields have both been very unimpressive in the UFC. Shields was undefeated for six years entering the UFC and first won a nonsense decision over Martin Kampmann and then had one of the worst fights ever with Georges St-Pierre, losing a boring decision. Then Jake Ellenberger cleaned him out inside of a minute. Akiyama won a very close split decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100 and has gone on to lose the three fights he’s had since then. Whoever loses most likely is going to have a difficult time staying in the UFC. The fact Shields may have the advantage on the feet says how rough this fight is going to be. Akiyama has also had serious cardio problems every time I’ve seen him so I expect Shields to just outlast him. While Akiyama wins Fight of the Night a lot, he doesn't win a lot. I expect this fight to be boring and Shields will win by decision.
Mark Hunt (7-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6): Hunt is 37 and known for his impressive run in PRIDE, beating Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. After a good stretch in PRIDE, Hunt went on a six fight losing streak though he has won his last two. Kongo has heavy hands and good kickboxing. Hunt is also a kickboxer and has only been knocked out once in MMA competition with the rest of his losses coming by way of submission. Luckily Hunt won’t have to worry about submissions here but Kongo has never been knocked out and is going to have a pretty big reach and height advantage over Hunt and that is most likely going to seal Hunt’s fate. Kongo wins by first round knockout.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2): Bader was working his way towards the top of the light heavyweight division until he faced Jon Jones and got choked out, then faced Tito Ortiz and got choked out. He knocked out Jason Brilz in just over a minute at 139 and is looking to become a contender again. It has been over three years since Rampage knocked anybody out and nobody is really sure just how serious he is about fighting still. It is safe to assume Rampage is going to be pumped about his return to Japan since he was an animal in PRIDE and constantly talks about how those were the best days of his career and how much he loves Japan. People think Bader’s wrestling will help him, but you can’t take Rampage down very easily and people forget Rampage does have good wrestling. The fight isn’t going to the ground, and after we saw Bader get rocked by Tito Ortiz do you really think an inspired Rampage fighting in the place he’s been begging to fight in for ages won’t put him down? Rampage wins by second round knockout.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2): Every time I see either of these two it always winds up being one of the craziest fights. Henderson’s fight with Anthony Pettis for the WEC Lightweight title was brilliant and his last fight with Clay Guida was an epic that left me tired out just from watching it. Edgar of course won back-to-back fights over BJ Penn, not even losing a single round in their second fight. He then went on to have two of the greatest fights of all time in his second and third bouts with Gray Maynard. I’ve seen every Lightweight Championship fight Frankie Edgar has had and I’ve learned one thing from them: Frankie Edgar can never be counted out. Henderson is a complete fighter and an amazing grappler with wicked submissions, but I can’t see him finishing Edgar. Maybe he gets him with a submission in the championship rounds, but I think it is far more likely that fight goes to decision.
I have a hard time believing that Henderson can finish Edgar if BJ Penn didn’t finish Edgar in two fights and Edgar was fine after the mauling he took at the hands of Gray Maynard in the first round of their last two fights. Also Frankie Edgar never finishes fights aside from laying out Maynard a few months ago so I’m feeling pretty good about this being a decision. Edgar has good wrestling but he most likely will try to keep the fight standing since he is faster and for some reason people can’t figure out his boxing game, and you also don’t want Henderson grappling with you since he’ll do work. Edgar is a small lightweight so Ben Smooth will have a size advantage and Henderson, like Edgar, has tremendous cardio and is going to keep coming for all five rounds. I don’t like this type of speculation before the fight even happens, but this could very well be one of the best fights we will ever see. It should be exciting and a non-stop battle for five rounds. in which Edgar wins a close decision.
So that's what it is. It should be a great show and I'm more pumped for this than I have been for any UFC show in a long time.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
UFC 141 Predictions
Zuffacaps off another year of big fights on Friday, December 30 with UFC 141. It features a massive main event, both literally and figuratively, as Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon after a lengthy battle with diverticulitis and takes on fellow behemoth Alistair “the Demoltion Man” Overeem for the right to take on Junior Dos Santos in a title fight next year. The co-main event features what should be a very exciting lightweight scrap between Nate Diaz and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. The rest of the card is a little “meh,” but with Brock Lesnar’s return the UFC doesn’t need to stack the card to increase interest. To be fair, it is still a better undercard than Penn/Diaz and Rampage/Hamill. Let’s get into it.
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes: This is a featherweight bout featuring one dude I’ve never heard of (Hettes) against someone I don’t care for (Phan). Hettes looks like he is a prospect with sick submission skills and Phan is a striker who has fought Leonard Garcia twice in the past year, losing one questionably and almost getting knocked out while dominating the second. I wasn’t impressed with Phan in his win against Garcia and he lost to Mike Thomas Brown, who has seen better days. Hettes beat some dude from the same season of the Ultimate Fighter Phan was on, so I assume this fight is to build him up some more. I’m going to go with Hettes by second round submission.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Matyushenko has been fighting MMA since the USSR collapsed and Gustafsson is supposed to be part of the future of the light heavyweight division. This should be a real test of where he stands, as “The Janitor” should be a game opponent for Gustafsson. Vlad really only loses to the top level guys, or people on their way to that point. His only defeats are to Jon Jones (2010), Little Nog (2009), Andrei Arlovski (2003), Tito Ortiz (2001), and Vernon White (1999). Gustafsson recently beat Matt Hamill to a pulp (and into retirement) and has looked much improved since his loss to fellow up and comer Phil Davis last year. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gustafsson to dominate. Matyushenko needs to grapple and grind away to win. Gustafsson thwarted Hamill’s wrestling based game; I expect him to do the same to Matyushenko. I don’t know that he’ll finish him, so let’s say Gustafsson by decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: No one took the news of GSP’s injury better than Fitch, I presume. The perennial number 2 welterweight in the world could potentially get himself in a title fight next year if he continues his winning ways here. His opponent, Hendricks, is no pushover though. Hendricks is also a wrestling based fighter, with top notch NCAA credentials, but can also trade on the feet (unlike Fitch). I expect this fight to be a bit of a snoozer, as Jon Fitch fights make me weep if I manage to stay awake through them. I really can’t decide who I want to win, as Fitch is dull and Hendricks spells his first name like a goof. People seem to think Hendricks has a good chance to win this and I feel like Fitch hasn’t looked great in his past few fights, but he is still the most dominant UFC fighter not named St. Pierre or Silva in the past five years. With a potential chance at a title shot, I expect him to put forth a better effort than lately, where it seems like he was treading water because he knew he wasn’t getting GSP again. Fitch by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone has been on a tear this year, going 4-0 since joining the UFC after the WEC was closed for business. He is looking for a fifth win in 2011, an impressive feat to be sure. Diaz is looking refreshed since moving back to lightweight after a stint at welterweight. Diaz looked great against the ghost of Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 and Cerrone crushed Dennis Siver at UFC 137. The winner of this fight could be a fringe title contender next year, probably only needing one more win to get a shot. Diaz struggles against wrestlers with strong top games and Cerrone struggles against Ben Henderson, so neither of their weaknesses should come into play here. I lean towards Diaz, due to the fact he has fought consistently tougher competition the past several years and I like the way the Diaz brothers throw down. In what should be the fight of the night, Diaz by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: This is like Thor vs. the Incredible Hulk, two monsters in the cage going at it. There are so many questions going into this fight. For Lesnar - 1.) Is he in good health after battling diverticulitis for the past two years? 2.) Is he still afraid to get punched? 3.) Have his overall skills improved? 4.) Does he still have the dominant wrestling he used against Frank Mir? For Overeem - 1.) Can he stop Lesnar’s takedowns/can he keep the fight standing? 2.) Have the steroid allegations and his mother’s illness distracted him? 3.) Is he underestimating Lesnar by looking past him? 4.) Is he all hype, or actually a legit top 5 heavyweight? Lesnar’s inability to set up takedowns because of his poor striking game was exposed by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, but both of those men have extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds. Overeem is not a wrestling machine and has not ever fought someone with Lesnar’s skill in that department. Two things can happen when Lesnar comes in with that chest high takedown he goes for when he is trying to avoid striking - 1.) he could walk right into one of Overeem’s lethal knee strikes or patented standing guillotine or 2.) Overeem could get bulldozed into the mat and be at the mercy of Lesnar’s vicious ground strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t establish the takedown, I don’t have much faith in his abilities to stand with the Reem. Cain Velasquez was able to tee off on Brock and he is nowhere near Overeem’s level of striker. If it stays standing, I expect Overeem to finish within two rounds. For Overeem, he needs to defend the takedown and get up quickly if brought down. Just as importantly, he needs to do this without gassing out. I have no faith in his abilities to persevere through a round or two of takedowns and ground and pound. I tend to think that Overeem’s takedown defense (his biggest weakness) is not nearly as crippling as Lesnar’s weakness in responding to strikes. On the other hand, I feel like Lesnar may be able to turn a knee to the body into a takedown. He seems to be able physically to take a shot, but not mentally. If he eats a hard punch or knee to the face, he’s done. I think this is what happens. Lesnar is going to come out blazing for a takedown. If he gets it, he pounds on Overeem en route to a second round TKO. If he doesn’t, he gets caught and stumbles. From there, Overeem blasts away with knees to the body and punches and gets a first round TKO. I’m torn over which option happens. In some ways it doesn’t matter because I think Junior Dos Santos can beat both men, although the Reem would be tougher for him. Let’s go Overeem by first round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions.
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes: This is a featherweight bout featuring one dude I’ve never heard of (Hettes) against someone I don’t care for (Phan). Hettes looks like he is a prospect with sick submission skills and Phan is a striker who has fought Leonard Garcia twice in the past year, losing one questionably and almost getting knocked out while dominating the second. I wasn’t impressed with Phan in his win against Garcia and he lost to Mike Thomas Brown, who has seen better days. Hettes beat some dude from the same season of the Ultimate Fighter Phan was on, so I assume this fight is to build him up some more. I’m going to go with Hettes by second round submission.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Matyushenko has been fighting MMA since the USSR collapsed and Gustafsson is supposed to be part of the future of the light heavyweight division. This should be a real test of where he stands, as “The Janitor” should be a game opponent for Gustafsson. Vlad really only loses to the top level guys, or people on their way to that point. His only defeats are to Jon Jones (2010), Little Nog (2009), Andrei Arlovski (2003), Tito Ortiz (2001), and Vernon White (1999). Gustafsson recently beat Matt Hamill to a pulp (and into retirement) and has looked much improved since his loss to fellow up and comer Phil Davis last year. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gustafsson to dominate. Matyushenko needs to grapple and grind away to win. Gustafsson thwarted Hamill’s wrestling based game; I expect him to do the same to Matyushenko. I don’t know that he’ll finish him, so let’s say Gustafsson by decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: No one took the news of GSP’s injury better than Fitch, I presume. The perennial number 2 welterweight in the world could potentially get himself in a title fight next year if he continues his winning ways here. His opponent, Hendricks, is no pushover though. Hendricks is also a wrestling based fighter, with top notch NCAA credentials, but can also trade on the feet (unlike Fitch). I expect this fight to be a bit of a snoozer, as Jon Fitch fights make me weep if I manage to stay awake through them. I really can’t decide who I want to win, as Fitch is dull and Hendricks spells his first name like a goof. People seem to think Hendricks has a good chance to win this and I feel like Fitch hasn’t looked great in his past few fights, but he is still the most dominant UFC fighter not named St. Pierre or Silva in the past five years. With a potential chance at a title shot, I expect him to put forth a better effort than lately, where it seems like he was treading water because he knew he wasn’t getting GSP again. Fitch by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone has been on a tear this year, going 4-0 since joining the UFC after the WEC was closed for business. He is looking for a fifth win in 2011, an impressive feat to be sure. Diaz is looking refreshed since moving back to lightweight after a stint at welterweight. Diaz looked great against the ghost of Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 and Cerrone crushed Dennis Siver at UFC 137. The winner of this fight could be a fringe title contender next year, probably only needing one more win to get a shot. Diaz struggles against wrestlers with strong top games and Cerrone struggles against Ben Henderson, so neither of their weaknesses should come into play here. I lean towards Diaz, due to the fact he has fought consistently tougher competition the past several years and I like the way the Diaz brothers throw down. In what should be the fight of the night, Diaz by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: This is like Thor vs. the Incredible Hulk, two monsters in the cage going at it. There are so many questions going into this fight. For Lesnar - 1.) Is he in good health after battling diverticulitis for the past two years? 2.) Is he still afraid to get punched? 3.) Have his overall skills improved? 4.) Does he still have the dominant wrestling he used against Frank Mir? For Overeem - 1.) Can he stop Lesnar’s takedowns/can he keep the fight standing? 2.) Have the steroid allegations and his mother’s illness distracted him? 3.) Is he underestimating Lesnar by looking past him? 4.) Is he all hype, or actually a legit top 5 heavyweight? Lesnar’s inability to set up takedowns because of his poor striking game was exposed by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, but both of those men have extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds. Overeem is not a wrestling machine and has not ever fought someone with Lesnar’s skill in that department. Two things can happen when Lesnar comes in with that chest high takedown he goes for when he is trying to avoid striking - 1.) he could walk right into one of Overeem’s lethal knee strikes or patented standing guillotine or 2.) Overeem could get bulldozed into the mat and be at the mercy of Lesnar’s vicious ground strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t establish the takedown, I don’t have much faith in his abilities to stand with the Reem. Cain Velasquez was able to tee off on Brock and he is nowhere near Overeem’s level of striker. If it stays standing, I expect Overeem to finish within two rounds. For Overeem, he needs to defend the takedown and get up quickly if brought down. Just as importantly, he needs to do this without gassing out. I have no faith in his abilities to persevere through a round or two of takedowns and ground and pound. I tend to think that Overeem’s takedown defense (his biggest weakness) is not nearly as crippling as Lesnar’s weakness in responding to strikes. On the other hand, I feel like Lesnar may be able to turn a knee to the body into a takedown. He seems to be able physically to take a shot, but not mentally. If he eats a hard punch or knee to the face, he’s done. I think this is what happens. Lesnar is going to come out blazing for a takedown. If he gets it, he pounds on Overeem en route to a second round TKO. If he doesn’t, he gets caught and stumbles. From there, Overeem blasts away with knees to the body and punches and gets a first round TKO. I’m torn over which option happens. In some ways it doesn’t matter because I think Junior Dos Santos can beat both men, although the Reem would be tougher for him. Let’s go Overeem by first round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
UFC 139 Predictions
This Saturday ends another autumn streak of UFC shows with UFC 139, the fourth weekend in a row of fights. Late September/early October had a similar run and it is alternately awesome and tiring (and expensive). I said this about UFC 137 and it turned out to be incorrect, but this should be an exciting night of fights. It’s headlined by a battle between top 5 light heavyweights and PRIDE veterans Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson in what could establish the next number one contender for the title. The co-main event is an interesting fight between fading star Wanderlei Silva and karate expert Cung Le. The other fights on the main card all look to have the potential to be entertaining as well. Let’s delve into them.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Bonnar is a journeyman fighter still hanging around due to his performance in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. Kingsbury is a younger guy that lost in like the eighth season of that show. This fight doesn’t really have much relevance, but I assume the goal is to get Kingsbury a win over a ‘name’ opponent to establish him at light heavyweight or get Bonnar into a fight after nearly a year off. Kingsbury’s resume doesn’t seem too impressive and Bonnar is usually a pretty tough out who is usually in fairly entertaining scraps. I’m going to say that Bonnar wins by decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: This welterweight bout features two fighter who could conceivably be two to three fights away from title contention. Kampmann is coming off two consecutive controversial decision losses while Story is coming off a loss to Charlie Brenneman that ended a six fight winning streak. This is very much a “striker vs. grappler” match, with Kampmann being the kickboxer and Story being the wrestler. I like Kampmann, but I don’t recall him having particularly strong takedown defense and Story was able to take down Thiago Alves fairly easily. This one could be dull if it is just takedown, takedown, takedown. Story by decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This is likely a title eliminator, with the winner getting another shot at Dominick Cruz’s Bantamweight Title at some point next year. A Faber win would be better for business, but I don’t know that either man can beat Cruz. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bowles fight but I do know his only loss is to Cruz. I didn’t think Faber looked particularly impressive in his fight against Eddie Wineland and was too tentative against Cruz. I will probably cheer for Faber since he’s pretty likeable, but I think it is going to be Bowles by decision.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This fight was originally supposed to be Vitor Belfort taking on Cung Le, but he withdrew due to injury. The UFC fans buying the show may not be familiar with the 39 year old Le, but the live audience in San Jose will love him because of his affiliation with Strikeforce since its days as a regional promotion in the area. Le only has 9 (8-1 record) fights to his record and each one of them has ended by a knockout. This one should be no different. Popular opinion seems to be that Wand’s aggression will be too much for Le, who needs to set up and establish range and distance in order to employ his style of Shan Shou karate. I love Wanderlei and his willingness to throw down, but he doesn’t have a chin against guys with knockout abilities. While seeing Wanderlei revert to his PRIDE days and beast on someone would be incredible and he deserves an exciting win in what has been a poor showing for him in his UFC career, I don’t think it happens. I think Le stays away from Wand’s wild flurries throughout the first and settles in in the second. At that time, it will be Cung Le by 2nd Round KO.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: I am ridiculously excited for this fight. Hendo always seems to bring it when he fights at light heavyweight (much more so than at middleweight) and Shogun never phones it in. This one is going to come down to whether or not Shogun can get him early and if his knees are repaired enough for him to potentially make it through a war of attrition. We know Henderson can go five rounds; Rua’s endurance is questionable due to the poor condition of his knees. If he is limping or dragging his legs, Hendo will just wear him down and win a decision. If he can strike early and pounce, it could be Shogun’s night. I don’t think Rua can win a decision unless he is lights out in the first three rounds. His cardio isn’t as solid as Hendo’s. I tend to think that Rua will put on a gutsy performance and have some moments early on, but Henderson will weather the storm like he does (he is damn nigh impossible to finish) and will use some of his clinch work and wrestling to wear down Rua and either win a decision or finish late. Either way, I expect it to be a pretty good fight. Henderson by 4th round TKO.
There you have it. Feel free to leave your picks here or on facebook.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Bonnar is a journeyman fighter still hanging around due to his performance in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. Kingsbury is a younger guy that lost in like the eighth season of that show. This fight doesn’t really have much relevance, but I assume the goal is to get Kingsbury a win over a ‘name’ opponent to establish him at light heavyweight or get Bonnar into a fight after nearly a year off. Kingsbury’s resume doesn’t seem too impressive and Bonnar is usually a pretty tough out who is usually in fairly entertaining scraps. I’m going to say that Bonnar wins by decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: This welterweight bout features two fighter who could conceivably be two to three fights away from title contention. Kampmann is coming off two consecutive controversial decision losses while Story is coming off a loss to Charlie Brenneman that ended a six fight winning streak. This is very much a “striker vs. grappler” match, with Kampmann being the kickboxer and Story being the wrestler. I like Kampmann, but I don’t recall him having particularly strong takedown defense and Story was able to take down Thiago Alves fairly easily. This one could be dull if it is just takedown, takedown, takedown. Story by decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This is likely a title eliminator, with the winner getting another shot at Dominick Cruz’s Bantamweight Title at some point next year. A Faber win would be better for business, but I don’t know that either man can beat Cruz. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bowles fight but I do know his only loss is to Cruz. I didn’t think Faber looked particularly impressive in his fight against Eddie Wineland and was too tentative against Cruz. I will probably cheer for Faber since he’s pretty likeable, but I think it is going to be Bowles by decision.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This fight was originally supposed to be Vitor Belfort taking on Cung Le, but he withdrew due to injury. The UFC fans buying the show may not be familiar with the 39 year old Le, but the live audience in San Jose will love him because of his affiliation with Strikeforce since its days as a regional promotion in the area. Le only has 9 (8-1 record) fights to his record and each one of them has ended by a knockout. This one should be no different. Popular opinion seems to be that Wand’s aggression will be too much for Le, who needs to set up and establish range and distance in order to employ his style of Shan Shou karate. I love Wanderlei and his willingness to throw down, but he doesn’t have a chin against guys with knockout abilities. While seeing Wanderlei revert to his PRIDE days and beast on someone would be incredible and he deserves an exciting win in what has been a poor showing for him in his UFC career, I don’t think it happens. I think Le stays away from Wand’s wild flurries throughout the first and settles in in the second. At that time, it will be Cung Le by 2nd Round KO.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: I am ridiculously excited for this fight. Hendo always seems to bring it when he fights at light heavyweight (much more so than at middleweight) and Shogun never phones it in. This one is going to come down to whether or not Shogun can get him early and if his knees are repaired enough for him to potentially make it through a war of attrition. We know Henderson can go five rounds; Rua’s endurance is questionable due to the poor condition of his knees. If he is limping or dragging his legs, Hendo will just wear him down and win a decision. If he can strike early and pounce, it could be Shogun’s night. I don’t think Rua can win a decision unless he is lights out in the first three rounds. His cardio isn’t as solid as Hendo’s. I tend to think that Rua will put on a gutsy performance and have some moments early on, but Henderson will weather the storm like he does (he is damn nigh impossible to finish) and will use some of his clinch work and wrestling to wear down Rua and either win a decision or finish late. Either way, I expect it to be a pretty good fight. Henderson by 4th round TKO.
There you have it. Feel free to leave your picks here or on facebook.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
UFC on Fox 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos Preview
This Saturday, November 12 marks a momentous occasion for MMA - the UFC’s debut on network television with the UFC on Fox. Prior to this event CBS had played host to cards from the now defunct Elite XC and the nearly defunct Strikeforce, but this event will be the first time that the world’s premier MMA promotion airs live fights on network television. Curiously, the powers that be at Zuffa and Fox are only going to air one fight, but its a doozy of one: UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will be facing top contender Junior Dos Santos.
I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.
Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.
Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.
Takedowns and Takedown Defense: Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez
Ground Game: Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez
Tangibles/Intangibles: First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.
I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.
Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.
Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.
Takedowns and Takedown Defense: Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez
Ground Game: Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez
Tangibles/Intangibles: First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Joe's UFC 137 Predictions
UFC 137 is tomorrow, so as is the tradition here on BBB I have composed my preview of the fights we’ll be seeing on the main card. Originally 137 was going to be a great show with Georges St-Pierre defending his Welterweight Championship against Nick Diaz in the main event, and a co-main of BJ Penn against Carlos Condit. Diaz then skipped out on the media events to promote the show so Condit moved up to fight GSP and Diaz was dropped down to fighting Penn. Then GSP got injured, so now the main event is Penn against Diaz and a strange and underwhelming co-main of Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione. However, the first two fights on the main card are in the featherweight and bantamweight divisions respectively and the little guys are always exciting so this could be a pretty good show. But on the other hand this seems like one of those cards where almost every fight is going to go to decision and be pretty underwhelming. Who knows. Here’s the predictions…
Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1): I have no idea who either of these guys are, but looking at their records I can make some sort of feeble prediction. Hioki’s four losses have all been by decision, and for that to happen in 30 fights says a lot about his toughness. Twelve of his 24 wins have been by submission, and four of Roop’s seven losses have come by submission. In Roop’s last five fights he’s 2-2-1. In Hioki’s last five fights he’s 4-1, with the one loss coming as a split decision back in 2009. I’m thinking Hioki by second round submission.
Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curan (33-13-1): Once again, I haven’t a clue as to who either of these guys are, but Jorgensen is coming off a knockout win after losing a decision for the Bantamweight Championship. Curan is 34 with an insane 47 fights under his belt, but he’s got good submissions. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in a decision, and four of Jorgensen’s last six have gone to decision. I think Jorgensen wins by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 1 NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6): This is incredibly sad as it is essentially the Mirko Cro Cop retirement party. Mirko is a sad shell of the destroyer he once was. He used to possess devastating kicks, once describing them with the amazing quote, “Right leg, hospital; left leg, cemetery.” However he has been laid out in his last two fights and was demolished by heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos at the end of 09. Two underwhelming wins fill the gap between dos Santos brutalizing him and his two knockout losses. Cro Cop is cooked, and Roy Nelson will most likely finish his career off. Nelson is a disgusting slob of a person, coming into fights with a huge gut and obviously in no shape to go longer than a round, but he packs a devastating right hand. Sadly Mirko’s shown he can’t take many big shots anymore, nor can he give them out. Even before he submitted Pat Barry at 115 he was getting dropped by little punches the entire first round. Nelson is fat and disgusting and an insult to the sport, but he can take a beating in the unlikely even Mirko can throw out some strikes, and he can dish out some big punches of his own. Nelson wins by second round KO.
Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0): Mitrione is a rising star in the heavyweight division. Known affectionately as “Meathead” from his time on The Ultimate Fighter, he has gone from being one of the most easily hate-worthy fighters to being an easily likable prospect. It is amazing. As for Kongo, he possesses awesome knockout power. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Pat Barry which was total crap since Barry was out on his feet for about a minute and the ref never stopped the fight, then Barry his Kongo with a freak punch and put him down. Kongo is a tough guy, only being knocked out once in his career. This fight could either be really exciting or really boring since that’s how it goes with the heavyweights. I'm sure the first round will be kind of intense, then the pace is going to go way down. I don’t like picking against either one of them really, but I think Mitrione wins a decision.
BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0, 1 NC): Though his record doesn’t make it seem so, BJ is the greatest lightweight of all time. Now he’s moved back up to welterweight, where he had won his first championship in the UFC against the legendary Matt Hughes. Nick Diaz is back in the UFC after a run as Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. BJ has been said to have the best boxing in MMA history, and Diaz’s striking is also very good. Both like to work submissions as well. It is a curious fight since BJ is known for coming out early and whooping ass, then gassing out later in the fight (see fights with Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre). BJ will be giving up some size but that has never mattered to him before. Diaz is extremely tough, having lost by TKO one time in the last 9 years. BJ's only true TKO loss came five years ago, while his other was just a corner stoppage since he was too tired and beaten up for go a fifth round with GSP. Neither has ever been submitted, and it is hard to see either fighter knocking the other out. As long as BJ doesn't gas out, this should be a very close fight. I feel bad picking against a Diaz brother, but BJ Penn is BJ Penn and you can't go against that. I think BJ will win a decision, though I could easily see him gassing out and getting beat convincingly by Diaz.
Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1): I have no idea who either of these guys are, but looking at their records I can make some sort of feeble prediction. Hioki’s four losses have all been by decision, and for that to happen in 30 fights says a lot about his toughness. Twelve of his 24 wins have been by submission, and four of Roop’s seven losses have come by submission. In Roop’s last five fights he’s 2-2-1. In Hioki’s last five fights he’s 4-1, with the one loss coming as a split decision back in 2009. I’m thinking Hioki by second round submission.
Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curan (33-13-1): Once again, I haven’t a clue as to who either of these guys are, but Jorgensen is coming off a knockout win after losing a decision for the Bantamweight Championship. Curan is 34 with an insane 47 fights under his belt, but he’s got good submissions. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in a decision, and four of Jorgensen’s last six have gone to decision. I think Jorgensen wins by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 1 NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6): This is incredibly sad as it is essentially the Mirko Cro Cop retirement party. Mirko is a sad shell of the destroyer he once was. He used to possess devastating kicks, once describing them with the amazing quote, “Right leg, hospital; left leg, cemetery.” However he has been laid out in his last two fights and was demolished by heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos at the end of 09. Two underwhelming wins fill the gap between dos Santos brutalizing him and his two knockout losses. Cro Cop is cooked, and Roy Nelson will most likely finish his career off. Nelson is a disgusting slob of a person, coming into fights with a huge gut and obviously in no shape to go longer than a round, but he packs a devastating right hand. Sadly Mirko’s shown he can’t take many big shots anymore, nor can he give them out. Even before he submitted Pat Barry at 115 he was getting dropped by little punches the entire first round. Nelson is fat and disgusting and an insult to the sport, but he can take a beating in the unlikely even Mirko can throw out some strikes, and he can dish out some big punches of his own. Nelson wins by second round KO.
Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0): Mitrione is a rising star in the heavyweight division. Known affectionately as “Meathead” from his time on The Ultimate Fighter, he has gone from being one of the most easily hate-worthy fighters to being an easily likable prospect. It is amazing. As for Kongo, he possesses awesome knockout power. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Pat Barry which was total crap since Barry was out on his feet for about a minute and the ref never stopped the fight, then Barry his Kongo with a freak punch and put him down. Kongo is a tough guy, only being knocked out once in his career. This fight could either be really exciting or really boring since that’s how it goes with the heavyweights. I'm sure the first round will be kind of intense, then the pace is going to go way down. I don’t like picking against either one of them really, but I think Mitrione wins a decision.
BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0, 1 NC): Though his record doesn’t make it seem so, BJ is the greatest lightweight of all time. Now he’s moved back up to welterweight, where he had won his first championship in the UFC against the legendary Matt Hughes. Nick Diaz is back in the UFC after a run as Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. BJ has been said to have the best boxing in MMA history, and Diaz’s striking is also very good. Both like to work submissions as well. It is a curious fight since BJ is known for coming out early and whooping ass, then gassing out later in the fight (see fights with Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre). BJ will be giving up some size but that has never mattered to him before. Diaz is extremely tough, having lost by TKO one time in the last 9 years. BJ's only true TKO loss came five years ago, while his other was just a corner stoppage since he was too tired and beaten up for go a fifth round with GSP. Neither has ever been submitted, and it is hard to see either fighter knocking the other out. As long as BJ doesn't gas out, this should be a very close fight. I feel bad picking against a Diaz brother, but BJ Penn is BJ Penn and you can't go against that. I think BJ will win a decision, though I could easily see him gassing out and getting beat convincingly by Diaz.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
UFC 136 Predictions
UFC 136 is coming up, so that means more predictions. If it seems like I just did one of these, you’re right. For some reason, Zuffa decided to put this card two weeks after UFC 135, and one week after a UFC card on Versus. However unlike UFC 135, this has to be considered one of the best cards of the year (even if I don’t like either guy in the main event). It features two title fights: Lightweight Champ Frankie Edgar against Gray Maynard and Feathweight Champ Jose Aldo against Kenny Florian. It also has Chael Sonnen against Brian Stann in a title eliminator and top ten lightweight Melvin Guillard will be in action as well. Let’s just get down to predictions.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon: Guillard is a top ten lightweight that is on the cusp of a title shot, while Joe Lauzon is probably somewhere in the 11-25 range in that class. Guillard is a striker with solid takedown defense, like a 155 lb version of Chuck Liddell but much more athletic. Lauzon is a submission specialist. I like Lauzon and he is a good fighter, but he isn’t good enough to beat the top of the division and Guillard has been on an absolute tear for the past year and a half. His time at Greg Jackson’s camp has really helped shape him into a much better fighter and he has the most knockout power in the division. He’ll use it to devastating effect here. Guillard by second round KO.
Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia: This fight was bumped to the main card after Dave Herman pulled out of his fight with Mike Russow due to injury. This is a rematch of a fight from last December, where Garcia somehow won a split decision in a battle he clearly lost. This has the potential to be an entertaining brawl, one that Phan needs to win in order to stay employed. Garcia will always have a job because he just brawls, for better or worse. He isn’t actually that good and he wings punches with no real force, but he can take a punch and always comes forward. Phan isn’t a particularly good fighter, but he is more technically sound and should end up the winner. Nam Phan by decision.
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann: I should preface this by making it clear that I loathe Sonnen. He is a cheating, obnoxious, lying lowlife scumbag that shouldn’t even be allowed to fight, much less do so in a top contender’s bout. Stann is an American war hero and by all accounts, a good guy. People want to see if Sonnen could beat Silva in a rematch. I am not one of them. He was on the roids and Silva was injured, but Chael still lost. In a rematch, Silva will beat his head in nine ways to Sunday. That being said, this fight comes down to whether or not Stann can stuff Sonnen’s takedowns and nullify his top game. If he keeps it standing, there is a good chance he can either KO or bust open the paper thin skin of Sonnen and get a doctor stoppage. If it does go to the ground, Stann does have one win by triangle choke so he should be able to beat Sonnen there. Stann has also been improving steadily with each fight at middleweight and even if he wasn’t, there is no way I’m picking Sonnen. Stann by second round TKO.
UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian: This is the main reason I’m buying this card. I love Jose Aldo. He is an absolutely vicious striker and has been a one man wrecking crew since he started fighting. Florian is a veteran who was on the Ultimate Fighter Season One as an undersized middleweight, then became a successful lightweight that lost two title shots and a number one contender’s bout before moving to featherweight this year. Florian looked OK in his lone match, but it was obvious the weight cut was not the easiest. At the age of 35, this is likely Florian’s last chance at gold before he hangs it up. He will come into this fight as the larger fighter and is probably the most well rounded fighter Aldo has faced and ever will go against. His range and Muay Thai could make it difficult for Jose, but Florian has never gone up against someone as explosive as Aldo. I expect his speed and power to cause KenFlo some problems and he showed decent ground defense and takedowns against Mark Hominick, so I don’t think Florian can grind away a decision. I expect Aldo to make use of some brutal leg kicks to wear Florian down like he did to Urijah Faber last year to win the belt. Aldo by decision.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: Speaking of decisions, this is a fight between two men that had a draw in their last fight and combined haven’t finished a fight since 2007. I’m just happy this fight is happening so that the lightweight division doesn’t have to be at a standstill anymore like it has been all year. By all accounts, their January fight was a wild, exciting affair. I’m having a hard time getting excited for this fight, as I think Maynard is about as exciting as a Joe Biden speech and Edgar doesn’t particularly interest me. I don’t see Edgar finishing the bigger, stronger Maynard but I also don’t see Gray finishing it either. If he couldn’t after putting the beating of a lifetime on Edgar in the first round of their last fight, how could he now? I just want to see the winner get slapped around by Ben Henderson (provided he gets by Clay Guida). I guess I would prefer Edgar because I think both Bendo and Guida can beat him, whereas only Bendo would beat Maynard. I think I lean towards Edgar on the strength of the fact he beat BJ Penn twice and would have won the Maynard fight if he hadn’t had to overcome such a lopsided first round. Edgar by decision.
That does it for this batch of picks. Feel free to leave yours on the comments section or on facebook.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon: Guillard is a top ten lightweight that is on the cusp of a title shot, while Joe Lauzon is probably somewhere in the 11-25 range in that class. Guillard is a striker with solid takedown defense, like a 155 lb version of Chuck Liddell but much more athletic. Lauzon is a submission specialist. I like Lauzon and he is a good fighter, but he isn’t good enough to beat the top of the division and Guillard has been on an absolute tear for the past year and a half. His time at Greg Jackson’s camp has really helped shape him into a much better fighter and he has the most knockout power in the division. He’ll use it to devastating effect here. Guillard by second round KO.
Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia: This fight was bumped to the main card after Dave Herman pulled out of his fight with Mike Russow due to injury. This is a rematch of a fight from last December, where Garcia somehow won a split decision in a battle he clearly lost. This has the potential to be an entertaining brawl, one that Phan needs to win in order to stay employed. Garcia will always have a job because he just brawls, for better or worse. He isn’t actually that good and he wings punches with no real force, but he can take a punch and always comes forward. Phan isn’t a particularly good fighter, but he is more technically sound and should end up the winner. Nam Phan by decision.
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann: I should preface this by making it clear that I loathe Sonnen. He is a cheating, obnoxious, lying lowlife scumbag that shouldn’t even be allowed to fight, much less do so in a top contender’s bout. Stann is an American war hero and by all accounts, a good guy. People want to see if Sonnen could beat Silva in a rematch. I am not one of them. He was on the roids and Silva was injured, but Chael still lost. In a rematch, Silva will beat his head in nine ways to Sunday. That being said, this fight comes down to whether or not Stann can stuff Sonnen’s takedowns and nullify his top game. If he keeps it standing, there is a good chance he can either KO or bust open the paper thin skin of Sonnen and get a doctor stoppage. If it does go to the ground, Stann does have one win by triangle choke so he should be able to beat Sonnen there. Stann has also been improving steadily with each fight at middleweight and even if he wasn’t, there is no way I’m picking Sonnen. Stann by second round TKO.
UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian: This is the main reason I’m buying this card. I love Jose Aldo. He is an absolutely vicious striker and has been a one man wrecking crew since he started fighting. Florian is a veteran who was on the Ultimate Fighter Season One as an undersized middleweight, then became a successful lightweight that lost two title shots and a number one contender’s bout before moving to featherweight this year. Florian looked OK in his lone match, but it was obvious the weight cut was not the easiest. At the age of 35, this is likely Florian’s last chance at gold before he hangs it up. He will come into this fight as the larger fighter and is probably the most well rounded fighter Aldo has faced and ever will go against. His range and Muay Thai could make it difficult for Jose, but Florian has never gone up against someone as explosive as Aldo. I expect his speed and power to cause KenFlo some problems and he showed decent ground defense and takedowns against Mark Hominick, so I don’t think Florian can grind away a decision. I expect Aldo to make use of some brutal leg kicks to wear Florian down like he did to Urijah Faber last year to win the belt. Aldo by decision.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: Speaking of decisions, this is a fight between two men that had a draw in their last fight and combined haven’t finished a fight since 2007. I’m just happy this fight is happening so that the lightweight division doesn’t have to be at a standstill anymore like it has been all year. By all accounts, their January fight was a wild, exciting affair. I’m having a hard time getting excited for this fight, as I think Maynard is about as exciting as a Joe Biden speech and Edgar doesn’t particularly interest me. I don’t see Edgar finishing the bigger, stronger Maynard but I also don’t see Gray finishing it either. If he couldn’t after putting the beating of a lifetime on Edgar in the first round of their last fight, how could he now? I just want to see the winner get slapped around by Ben Henderson (provided he gets by Clay Guida). I guess I would prefer Edgar because I think both Bendo and Guida can beat him, whereas only Bendo would beat Maynard. I think I lean towards Edgar on the strength of the fact he beat BJ Penn twice and would have won the Maynard fight if he hadn’t had to overcome such a lopsided first round. Edgar by decision.
That does it for this batch of picks. Feel free to leave yours on the comments section or on facebook.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
UFC 135 Predictions
Hard to believe that it’s time for another UFC ppv, as it seems like the very exciting UFC 134 just happened. On the surface, UFC 135 does not appear to be on that level. It is a top heavy card, with a really strong main event of wunderkind Jon Jones making his first light heavyweight title defense against veteran and fan favorite Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and a co-main event of Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck that could be really dull or potentially interesting. The rest of the card is hit or miss, since it is short on name fighters and has two heavyweight fights on the main card. That could be disastrous, but at least there is a lightweight fight that could be really good.
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt: Both men in this heavyweight tilt are veterans, with Rothwell fighting for the first time since winning a decision over Gilbert Yvel in 2010 and Hunt fighting for the first time since blasting Chris Tuscherer out of the UFC earlier this year. Hunt looked pretty good in that fight, weighing close to 100 lbs less than he did in his PRIDE days, when he was an exciting knockout artist susceptible to submisisons. I’ve never been particularly impressed by Rothwell, dude just looks like a schlub. Coming off a long layoff can’t be good for Rothwell, but he has a lot of wins by submission and Hunt is not exactly a world beater. His win over Tuscherer was his first in nearly five years. I’m going to cheer for Hunt to throw down a KO, but it is going to be Rothwell by second round submission.
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi: This lightweight scrap is my pick for fight of the night. It’s kind of neat, since five years ago Gomi fought Nick Diaz at PRIDE 33 and lost in one of the most exciting battles of all time. Both fighters here have struggled as of late, which I like to blame on the fact that they have both been pitted against wrestlers, which neither of these men are. I expect a fast paced brawl. I’m not sold on Nate Diaz, he is like a less skilled version of Nick. I also don’t know if Gomi is still any good. He was exciting in PRIDE, but has struggled since that organization folded. I do think he has better striking than Nate and if he doesn’t get involved in any grappling exchanges, I think it will be Gomi by decision.
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton: This heavyweight match pits one guy who I’ve seen knock out Stefan Struve and get dominated by Cheick Kongo (Browne) against someone I’ve never heard of. Browne seems to be someone that the UFC thinks has potential, since he has been up against midlevel competition like Struve and Kongo. I’m just going to guess and say Browne by second round TKO.
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck: This was originally supposed to be Hughes vs. Diego Sanchez, but Sanchez pulled out last week with an injury and Koscheck stepped up on two weeks notice to take the fight. I think that Hughes had a better shot of winning when it was Sanchez, even if Kos is stepping up on short notice after recovering from an eye injury. I can’t stand Koscheck; he’s obnoxious and cheats, but I respect that he is willing to take on anyone at any time and that shows a certain respect for fans and the sport that is commendable. Sanchez is a small welterweight, Kos is a large one. Kos also has more power than Sanchez and is arguably as good a wrestler as Hughes. Koscheck should also be closer to his prime than Hughes, who has fought roughly a million fights in his career. What makes this fight interesting is the claim that Koscheck has made for years that Hughes has avoided fighting him like the plague. I think in this battle of two wrestlers, most of it will be on the feet. That’s how these things always end up. In this case, Hughes has woeful standup and while Kos’ is overrated, he is still better at it than Hughes. Kos can also take a punch better than Matt, so let’s say Koscheck by second round knockout.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson: Jon Jones will be looking to be the first fighter since Machida in 2009 to successfully defend the light heavyweight belt while Rampage looks to become only the second two-time champ in the division’s history. For Jackson, this is in all likelihood his last shot at UFC gold. He’s been around a while and with a burgeoning movie career and newer, more dynamic fighters coming up his chances of getting to the top again are slim. For Jones, this is the chance to solidify himself as the best 205er in the world and not just someone who pummeled a crippled Shogun to win the belt. While I would tilt the odds heavily towards Jones in this fight, I wouldn’t count Rampage out. Jones will have a significant reach, size, and speed advantage over the lumbering Jackson. I would say Rampage has better boxing and footwork, as well as arguably more power in his strikes. Jones, while dynamic, doesn’t really set his feet and blast people. Quinton has some of the best boxing in MMA and can crush someone with his hooks or uppercuts. Jones has great trips, throws, and takedowns but Rampage will easily have the best takedown defense of anyone Jones has faced. What favors Jones is that Rampage is too one dimensional. He doesn’t go for takedowns or the slams that were a trademark of his PRIDE days. He is content to stuff takedowns and box. He is going to have to be more active if he wants to win and fight in a fashion similar to his fight with Machida last year. I think that something else working in his favor is that Jones is the most arrogant fighter not named Anderson Silva and unlike Jones, Silva has earned that right to be arrogant. There is a chance he is overlooking Rampage or gets too cocky and gets sloppy. The best way for Jones to win would be to take either the Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans route by keeping distance and utilizing leg kicks or by grinding away in the clinch as opposed to getting into any firefights with Jackson. I’ll be cheering for Rampage, but I think that realistically he has about a 25% chance of winning this fight. I think that Machida is the best stylistically to beat Jones and will be the first one to do it, but that won’t stop me from rooting for Jackson. I do think that Jones grinds out a decision or possibly 4th round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions in the comment section or on my facebook page.
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt: Both men in this heavyweight tilt are veterans, with Rothwell fighting for the first time since winning a decision over Gilbert Yvel in 2010 and Hunt fighting for the first time since blasting Chris Tuscherer out of the UFC earlier this year. Hunt looked pretty good in that fight, weighing close to 100 lbs less than he did in his PRIDE days, when he was an exciting knockout artist susceptible to submisisons. I’ve never been particularly impressed by Rothwell, dude just looks like a schlub. Coming off a long layoff can’t be good for Rothwell, but he has a lot of wins by submission and Hunt is not exactly a world beater. His win over Tuscherer was his first in nearly five years. I’m going to cheer for Hunt to throw down a KO, but it is going to be Rothwell by second round submission.
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi: This lightweight scrap is my pick for fight of the night. It’s kind of neat, since five years ago Gomi fought Nick Diaz at PRIDE 33 and lost in one of the most exciting battles of all time. Both fighters here have struggled as of late, which I like to blame on the fact that they have both been pitted against wrestlers, which neither of these men are. I expect a fast paced brawl. I’m not sold on Nate Diaz, he is like a less skilled version of Nick. I also don’t know if Gomi is still any good. He was exciting in PRIDE, but has struggled since that organization folded. I do think he has better striking than Nate and if he doesn’t get involved in any grappling exchanges, I think it will be Gomi by decision.
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton: This heavyweight match pits one guy who I’ve seen knock out Stefan Struve and get dominated by Cheick Kongo (Browne) against someone I’ve never heard of. Browne seems to be someone that the UFC thinks has potential, since he has been up against midlevel competition like Struve and Kongo. I’m just going to guess and say Browne by second round TKO.
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck: This was originally supposed to be Hughes vs. Diego Sanchez, but Sanchez pulled out last week with an injury and Koscheck stepped up on two weeks notice to take the fight. I think that Hughes had a better shot of winning when it was Sanchez, even if Kos is stepping up on short notice after recovering from an eye injury. I can’t stand Koscheck; he’s obnoxious and cheats, but I respect that he is willing to take on anyone at any time and that shows a certain respect for fans and the sport that is commendable. Sanchez is a small welterweight, Kos is a large one. Kos also has more power than Sanchez and is arguably as good a wrestler as Hughes. Koscheck should also be closer to his prime than Hughes, who has fought roughly a million fights in his career. What makes this fight interesting is the claim that Koscheck has made for years that Hughes has avoided fighting him like the plague. I think in this battle of two wrestlers, most of it will be on the feet. That’s how these things always end up. In this case, Hughes has woeful standup and while Kos’ is overrated, he is still better at it than Hughes. Kos can also take a punch better than Matt, so let’s say Koscheck by second round knockout.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson: Jon Jones will be looking to be the first fighter since Machida in 2009 to successfully defend the light heavyweight belt while Rampage looks to become only the second two-time champ in the division’s history. For Jackson, this is in all likelihood his last shot at UFC gold. He’s been around a while and with a burgeoning movie career and newer, more dynamic fighters coming up his chances of getting to the top again are slim. For Jones, this is the chance to solidify himself as the best 205er in the world and not just someone who pummeled a crippled Shogun to win the belt. While I would tilt the odds heavily towards Jones in this fight, I wouldn’t count Rampage out. Jones will have a significant reach, size, and speed advantage over the lumbering Jackson. I would say Rampage has better boxing and footwork, as well as arguably more power in his strikes. Jones, while dynamic, doesn’t really set his feet and blast people. Quinton has some of the best boxing in MMA and can crush someone with his hooks or uppercuts. Jones has great trips, throws, and takedowns but Rampage will easily have the best takedown defense of anyone Jones has faced. What favors Jones is that Rampage is too one dimensional. He doesn’t go for takedowns or the slams that were a trademark of his PRIDE days. He is content to stuff takedowns and box. He is going to have to be more active if he wants to win and fight in a fashion similar to his fight with Machida last year. I think that something else working in his favor is that Jones is the most arrogant fighter not named Anderson Silva and unlike Jones, Silva has earned that right to be arrogant. There is a chance he is overlooking Rampage or gets too cocky and gets sloppy. The best way for Jones to win would be to take either the Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans route by keeping distance and utilizing leg kicks or by grinding away in the clinch as opposed to getting into any firefights with Jackson. I’ll be cheering for Rampage, but I think that realistically he has about a 25% chance of winning this fight. I think that Machida is the best stylistically to beat Jones and will be the first one to do it, but that won’t stop me from rooting for Jackson. I do think that Jones grinds out a decision or possibly 4th round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions in the comment section or on my facebook page.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Will those of us who pick Rampage regret it?
“Do you really want to be on the wrong side of history?”
That was a question my brother once posed when we were discussing how silly it was people were going to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008. Obama was clearly going to win and with his priorities on the economy over the war he seemed like a more logical choice than McCain, but some people seemed to think McCain was the one. Of course this isn’t a political blog, but the question still holds a lot of weight in everything from politics to sports.
This Saturday is UFC 135 and features one of the most intriguing and exciting main events the Ultimate Fighting Championship will probably ever have. UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones defends his title against Quentin “Rampage” Jackson. Rampage is looking to become only the second man to be a two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, and Bones Jones is looking to continue his quest to become the greatest talent mixed martial arts has ever seen. Predictions for the show will undoubtedly come later in the week, but I’ll state right now I both think and hope Rampage Jackson will lay out Jones to regain his belt. It is with that prediction I step back and think of Jimmy’s question: Do you really want to be on the wrong side of history?
I think of that question and I think of Michael Jordan. MJ is the undisputed greatest athlete in the history of any sport ever. Six championships in eight years, which could have easily been eight straight or even nine straight had he not retired, make him the leader of one of the NBA’s all time great dynasties. I think of how the Bulls made the 1991 NBA Finals and critics said Jordan was too selfish to win a title, but then he went out and the Bulls effectively ended Magic Johnson and the Lakers to become champs. I think of the 1992 NBA Finals in which people said Clyde Drexler was on Jordan’s level and the Portland Trailblazers could stop the Bulls from repeating as champions. I think of how in Game 1 Jordan scores 36 first half points and simply shrugs, cementing his place as the best in the world and Drexler’s inferiority. They won the title that year too, and again next year against a tough Phoenix Suns team people thought could give the Bulls a run for their money.
I think of the last two championships the Chicago Bulls won, in 1997 and 1998, and how there were people who really thought the Utah Jazz could beat them. In ’97 Jordan put on one of the two greatest performances in the history of the NBA when he scored 38 points in Game 5 despite being sick as hell and eventually propelled Chicago to a Game 6 championship win. Of course in 1998 age and injures slowed the Bulls big time, but they had one weapon no other team had: Michael fucking Jordan. In Game 6 Jordan puts on the other one of the two greatest performances in NBA history as the Bulls win title number six. Now I’m sure somebody is wondering why I just gave this longwinded explanation of the Bulls title wins. I’ll get to that.
Now we have Jon Jones. He is an incredible athletic specimen. He’s in great shape; he’s got great speed and great strength. His wrestling is good and his striking has proven to be vicious. If you’ve ever seen him fight then you’ve heard commentators Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg hype Jones up as the guy who very likely may go down as the greatest fighter ever. He has looked like a juggernaut in his first 14 fights, with his only loss coming after an illegal elbow during the midst of demolishing Matt Hamill. Jones has 8 wins by way of knockout and 3 by submission. Everybody he has faced has been beaten and beaten badly. And he is very young, so as he gets older and moves closer to his prime he’s only getting better. It is because of this that I start to wonder if I’m making the right pick.
But there is a chance I’m not wrong. When you look at the list of people Jones has beaten, it isn’t particularly impressive. His big standout win is the one over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the championship, but once you get past the surface the win isn’t that impressive. Shogun’s legs were badly hobbled going into the fight and he looked to be in piss poor shape. He had no stamina and no lower half of his leg and clearly had no chance. Of course I went against history and picked Shogun to win because he was amazing back in the day, but that’s not the case anymore. I was in denial at the time and thought he could slow down Jones’ meteoric rise to the top. Whoops.
Shogun’s injuries proved to be too much for him to overcome and he shouldn’t have even been in the octagon fighting. Jones completely overwhelmed him en route to becoming champion. A win over a legend like Shogun Rua makes your legacy, but when you realize Rua was in no condition to even fight it weakens the moment. Jones fought sloppy in that fight and Rua took his back on several occasions, Rua was so small and weak he couldn’t capitalize. That right there serves as my hope that I’m not betting against history by picking Rampage Jackson this Saturday.
If Jones gets inside, tries one of those spinning elbows, and Rampage ends up taking his back he won’t just hold Jones there like Shogun did. Rampage is well known for once having devastating slams, and with the title on the line in such a big moment, I doubt he’d forget about using them. Rampage also has devastating boxing, with an uppercut that could stop a train. Jones has never been hit so we have no idea what his chin is like. If Rampage belts him in the jaw, Jones could very likely be taking a nap. But that’s when I stop and think.
What about those people who said Jordan was too selfish to win in ’91? What about the people who said Drexler could take Jordan off his throne in ’92? What about people who thought Charles Barkley and the Suns could stop the Bulls from getting the historic “three-peat” in 1993? The 1996 Bulls were the greatest team ever so there was no real doubt, but what about the people in ’97 and ’98 who thought John Stockton, Karl Malone, and their coach Jerry Sloan were destined to finally become NBA Champions? Imagine how foolish all of those doubters must have felt by the end of June in 1998. They must have felt like the biggest assholes ever since here they were constantly betting against a guy who ended up being the greatest basketball player of all time.
For the second straight fight now, I’m betting against the fighter who could potentially go down as the best. But Jones has yet to beat a real fighter in prime condition so who knows if the hype is deserved. Of course if Rampage loses a lot of people will say it is because he’s past his prime, but he’s still near the top of the division so should Jones win he’s still proven himself. And if Jones wins I once again have to sit here with egg on my face and claim to know and understand the sport but for some reason keep picking wrong when it comes to the new golden boy. With the potential happiness I’ll feel if I see Rampage Jackson land a few big punches, howl, and become the new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, I will take the chance.
That was a question my brother once posed when we were discussing how silly it was people were going to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008. Obama was clearly going to win and with his priorities on the economy over the war he seemed like a more logical choice than McCain, but some people seemed to think McCain was the one. Of course this isn’t a political blog, but the question still holds a lot of weight in everything from politics to sports.
This Saturday is UFC 135 and features one of the most intriguing and exciting main events the Ultimate Fighting Championship will probably ever have. UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones defends his title against Quentin “Rampage” Jackson. Rampage is looking to become only the second man to be a two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, and Bones Jones is looking to continue his quest to become the greatest talent mixed martial arts has ever seen. Predictions for the show will undoubtedly come later in the week, but I’ll state right now I both think and hope Rampage Jackson will lay out Jones to regain his belt. It is with that prediction I step back and think of Jimmy’s question: Do you really want to be on the wrong side of history?
I think of that question and I think of Michael Jordan. MJ is the undisputed greatest athlete in the history of any sport ever. Six championships in eight years, which could have easily been eight straight or even nine straight had he not retired, make him the leader of one of the NBA’s all time great dynasties. I think of how the Bulls made the 1991 NBA Finals and critics said Jordan was too selfish to win a title, but then he went out and the Bulls effectively ended Magic Johnson and the Lakers to become champs. I think of the 1992 NBA Finals in which people said Clyde Drexler was on Jordan’s level and the Portland Trailblazers could stop the Bulls from repeating as champions. I think of how in Game 1 Jordan scores 36 first half points and simply shrugs, cementing his place as the best in the world and Drexler’s inferiority. They won the title that year too, and again next year against a tough Phoenix Suns team people thought could give the Bulls a run for their money.
I think of the last two championships the Chicago Bulls won, in 1997 and 1998, and how there were people who really thought the Utah Jazz could beat them. In ’97 Jordan put on one of the two greatest performances in the history of the NBA when he scored 38 points in Game 5 despite being sick as hell and eventually propelled Chicago to a Game 6 championship win. Of course in 1998 age and injures slowed the Bulls big time, but they had one weapon no other team had: Michael fucking Jordan. In Game 6 Jordan puts on the other one of the two greatest performances in NBA history as the Bulls win title number six. Now I’m sure somebody is wondering why I just gave this longwinded explanation of the Bulls title wins. I’ll get to that.
Now we have Jon Jones. He is an incredible athletic specimen. He’s in great shape; he’s got great speed and great strength. His wrestling is good and his striking has proven to be vicious. If you’ve ever seen him fight then you’ve heard commentators Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg hype Jones up as the guy who very likely may go down as the greatest fighter ever. He has looked like a juggernaut in his first 14 fights, with his only loss coming after an illegal elbow during the midst of demolishing Matt Hamill. Jones has 8 wins by way of knockout and 3 by submission. Everybody he has faced has been beaten and beaten badly. And he is very young, so as he gets older and moves closer to his prime he’s only getting better. It is because of this that I start to wonder if I’m making the right pick.
But there is a chance I’m not wrong. When you look at the list of people Jones has beaten, it isn’t particularly impressive. His big standout win is the one over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the championship, but once you get past the surface the win isn’t that impressive. Shogun’s legs were badly hobbled going into the fight and he looked to be in piss poor shape. He had no stamina and no lower half of his leg and clearly had no chance. Of course I went against history and picked Shogun to win because he was amazing back in the day, but that’s not the case anymore. I was in denial at the time and thought he could slow down Jones’ meteoric rise to the top. Whoops.
Shogun’s injuries proved to be too much for him to overcome and he shouldn’t have even been in the octagon fighting. Jones completely overwhelmed him en route to becoming champion. A win over a legend like Shogun Rua makes your legacy, but when you realize Rua was in no condition to even fight it weakens the moment. Jones fought sloppy in that fight and Rua took his back on several occasions, Rua was so small and weak he couldn’t capitalize. That right there serves as my hope that I’m not betting against history by picking Rampage Jackson this Saturday.
If Jones gets inside, tries one of those spinning elbows, and Rampage ends up taking his back he won’t just hold Jones there like Shogun did. Rampage is well known for once having devastating slams, and with the title on the line in such a big moment, I doubt he’d forget about using them. Rampage also has devastating boxing, with an uppercut that could stop a train. Jones has never been hit so we have no idea what his chin is like. If Rampage belts him in the jaw, Jones could very likely be taking a nap. But that’s when I stop and think.
What about those people who said Jordan was too selfish to win in ’91? What about the people who said Drexler could take Jordan off his throne in ’92? What about people who thought Charles Barkley and the Suns could stop the Bulls from getting the historic “three-peat” in 1993? The 1996 Bulls were the greatest team ever so there was no real doubt, but what about the people in ’97 and ’98 who thought John Stockton, Karl Malone, and their coach Jerry Sloan were destined to finally become NBA Champions? Imagine how foolish all of those doubters must have felt by the end of June in 1998. They must have felt like the biggest assholes ever since here they were constantly betting against a guy who ended up being the greatest basketball player of all time.
For the second straight fight now, I’m betting against the fighter who could potentially go down as the best. But Jones has yet to beat a real fighter in prime condition so who knows if the hype is deserved. Of course if Rampage loses a lot of people will say it is because he’s past his prime, but he’s still near the top of the division so should Jones win he’s still proven himself. And if Jones wins I once again have to sit here with egg on my face and claim to know and understand the sport but for some reason keep picking wrong when it comes to the new golden boy. With the potential happiness I’ll feel if I see Rampage Jackson land a few big punches, howl, and become the new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, I will take the chance.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Joe's UFC 134 Predictions
The UFC is known to hype every fight up as the most important fight of the ever. Of course that’s what any good sports company does to sell tickets, pay per views, merchandise, etc. Sometimes the hype isn’t warranted (Cro Cop vs. Mir) but other times, like this Saturday, it is an event so momentous that all who care about the sport must take notice. For the first time in 13 years, the Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to Rio for UFC 134. It promises to be an exciting card, mainly because the main event features the greatest of all time and current UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva taking on the last man to defeat him, Yushin Okami. With the exception of one of the preliminary bouts, every fight features at least one Brazilian fighter. Personally I’m pretty excited for this card, and as the title of the post states, I’ve made some predictions. So here we go.
Luiz Cane (11-3, 1NC) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (11-0): Nedkov will be making his UFC debut and I feel a little bad he’s got to go up against a Brazilian in the first major UFC event the country is having. That will put a lot of pressure on him I feel. Meanwhile, I don’t remember seeing Luiz Cane since Rogerio Nogueira finished him two years ago. This is not a fight I’m pretty excited for. I predict Cane by decision.
Ross Pearson (12-4) vs. Edson Barboza (8-0): I would like Barboza a lot more if it were spelled Barbosa like the awesome former Phoenix Sun. As for Ross Pearson, my brother said it best when he said any man named Ross has to make his nickname “The Boss.” Pearson did not adhere to this rule and instead went with “The Real Deal.” Lame nickname and the fact I hate British people except for the most beautiful woman in the world Emily Blunt and the Rolling Stones makes me not want to pick him, as well as the fact British fighters scrap but never seem to win a lot. Barboza is the only man I’ve ever seen with not just one, but TWO wins by TKO due to leg kicks. I’m expecting a Barboza second round TKO.
Brendan Schaub (8-1) vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (32-6-1, 1NC): Big Nog, one of the probably three greatest heavyweights to ever fight, looks to come back after taking more than a year off to fight in his native Brazil for the first time. Nogueira went from never being finished in his epic career in Japan over the course of 9 years, to coming to the UFC and getting knocked out by Frank Mir in 2008, then again by Cain Velasquez in 2009. Big Nog used to have terrific boxing and is most likely the greatest submission specialist in heavyweight history. He has more wins by submission (20) than anybody else I’ve named on this card so far has fights. However he fought sick and injured his last few fights and hasn’t looked like the man he was in Pride FC. Whereas he used to be able to take horrific beatings for 20 minutes and then slap on a submission and win, he now can hardly take a punch. Meanwhile Brendan Schaub looks to finish off the Pride legacy by knocking out Nogueira like he did with Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop just a couple months ago. Big Nog has promised a submission victory for his hometown fans, but I don’t see him having enough left in the tank to deliver. As much as it breaks my heart, I say Schaub by first round knockout.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-5) vs. Forrest Griffin (18-6): A rematch of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Four years ago, Shogun came to the UFC ranked as the best light heavyweight in the world. However, when he made his UFC debut against Griffin he looked completely unconditioned and Forrest caught him with a choke in the closing seconds of the fight to win. Shogun’s had knee troubles and some conditioning issues, as evidenced in his mauling at the hands of Bones Jones earlier this year, so I don’t know if he’ll be able to last much more than a round with the larger Griffin on him. If he is actually healthy and in good condition he could easily take Griffin, but with such a spotty UFC run I don’t know if Shogun is going to be the man he was in Pride. Forrest also worries me since he seems to look at fighting as work and not something he loves doing anymore so who knows what his mindset is. Forrest is coming off a win against Rich Franklin in February and hasn’t had to recover from anything like what Shogun is going through. I think Forrest will win by decision.
Main Event – UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (30-4) vs. Yushin Okami (26-5): This is one of the most important fights of Silva’s career. It was just a year ago that Chael Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva only to be choked out in the final minutes of the fight. With people thinking Silva was now beatable, he went against Vitor Belfort and finished him with a devastating kick in the first round. Now Silva goes against the last man to defeat him. Before both men were in the UFC they faced off in a promotion called Rumble on the Rock. Okami won by disqualification when Silva threw an illegal kick. Okami was given the option to continue but instead took the DQ, which has prompted Silva to call him a coward for the last five years. Yes, that fight was 2006. Since then Silva has reeled off 14 straight wins and cemented himself as the best to ever throw on a pair of gloves.
Okami’s stand up has improved and he has good wrestling, but he also has losses to Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin, fighters who suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Silva. Silva played dead for four and a half rounds against Sonnen, only to come alive and submit him in the closing moments just because Sonnen had offended him in the pre-fight trash talk and Silva wanted to embarrass him. Silva’s had five years to work up any ill will he can for this fight against Okami. The Michael Jordan of MMA steps into the Octagon against the last man to defeat him and does it in front of a massive hometown crowd. Silva is 36 and slowing down, but as he showed to anybody who had their doubts in the Belfort fight he is still the king of MMA. Silva wins by second round TKO.
That’s all I got.
Luiz Cane (11-3, 1NC) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (11-0): Nedkov will be making his UFC debut and I feel a little bad he’s got to go up against a Brazilian in the first major UFC event the country is having. That will put a lot of pressure on him I feel. Meanwhile, I don’t remember seeing Luiz Cane since Rogerio Nogueira finished him two years ago. This is not a fight I’m pretty excited for. I predict Cane by decision.
Ross Pearson (12-4) vs. Edson Barboza (8-0): I would like Barboza a lot more if it were spelled Barbosa like the awesome former Phoenix Sun. As for Ross Pearson, my brother said it best when he said any man named Ross has to make his nickname “The Boss.” Pearson did not adhere to this rule and instead went with “The Real Deal.” Lame nickname and the fact I hate British people except for the most beautiful woman in the world Emily Blunt and the Rolling Stones makes me not want to pick him, as well as the fact British fighters scrap but never seem to win a lot. Barboza is the only man I’ve ever seen with not just one, but TWO wins by TKO due to leg kicks. I’m expecting a Barboza second round TKO.
Brendan Schaub (8-1) vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (32-6-1, 1NC): Big Nog, one of the probably three greatest heavyweights to ever fight, looks to come back after taking more than a year off to fight in his native Brazil for the first time. Nogueira went from never being finished in his epic career in Japan over the course of 9 years, to coming to the UFC and getting knocked out by Frank Mir in 2008, then again by Cain Velasquez in 2009. Big Nog used to have terrific boxing and is most likely the greatest submission specialist in heavyweight history. He has more wins by submission (20) than anybody else I’ve named on this card so far has fights. However he fought sick and injured his last few fights and hasn’t looked like the man he was in Pride FC. Whereas he used to be able to take horrific beatings for 20 minutes and then slap on a submission and win, he now can hardly take a punch. Meanwhile Brendan Schaub looks to finish off the Pride legacy by knocking out Nogueira like he did with Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop just a couple months ago. Big Nog has promised a submission victory for his hometown fans, but I don’t see him having enough left in the tank to deliver. As much as it breaks my heart, I say Schaub by first round knockout.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-5) vs. Forrest Griffin (18-6): A rematch of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Four years ago, Shogun came to the UFC ranked as the best light heavyweight in the world. However, when he made his UFC debut against Griffin he looked completely unconditioned and Forrest caught him with a choke in the closing seconds of the fight to win. Shogun’s had knee troubles and some conditioning issues, as evidenced in his mauling at the hands of Bones Jones earlier this year, so I don’t know if he’ll be able to last much more than a round with the larger Griffin on him. If he is actually healthy and in good condition he could easily take Griffin, but with such a spotty UFC run I don’t know if Shogun is going to be the man he was in Pride. Forrest also worries me since he seems to look at fighting as work and not something he loves doing anymore so who knows what his mindset is. Forrest is coming off a win against Rich Franklin in February and hasn’t had to recover from anything like what Shogun is going through. I think Forrest will win by decision.
Main Event – UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (30-4) vs. Yushin Okami (26-5): This is one of the most important fights of Silva’s career. It was just a year ago that Chael Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva only to be choked out in the final minutes of the fight. With people thinking Silva was now beatable, he went against Vitor Belfort and finished him with a devastating kick in the first round. Now Silva goes against the last man to defeat him. Before both men were in the UFC they faced off in a promotion called Rumble on the Rock. Okami won by disqualification when Silva threw an illegal kick. Okami was given the option to continue but instead took the DQ, which has prompted Silva to call him a coward for the last five years. Yes, that fight was 2006. Since then Silva has reeled off 14 straight wins and cemented himself as the best to ever throw on a pair of gloves.
Okami’s stand up has improved and he has good wrestling, but he also has losses to Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin, fighters who suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Silva. Silva played dead for four and a half rounds against Sonnen, only to come alive and submit him in the closing moments just because Sonnen had offended him in the pre-fight trash talk and Silva wanted to embarrass him. Silva’s had five years to work up any ill will he can for this fight against Okami. The Michael Jordan of MMA steps into the Octagon against the last man to defeat him and does it in front of a massive hometown crowd. Silva is 36 and slowing down, but as he showed to anybody who had their doubts in the Belfort fight he is still the king of MMA. Silva wins by second round TKO.
That’s all I got.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
UFC 132 Predictions
Greetings readers! It's been a long time coming, but I'm updating the blog with an easy post: predictions for this weekend's UFC 132. It looks to be a great card, headlined by a main event of UFC Bantamweight Champ Dominick Cruz taking on "The California Kid" Urijah Faber and a co-main of Chris Leben vs. PRIDE legend Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva." Since I'm typing this up while I'm at work, let's just get down to it.
Main Card
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman: This is a lightweight scrap featuring two men who have each won seven of their past eight fights. I don't know too much about Wiman besides the fact he was on a season of Ultimate Fighter in 2007 and didn't win. I'm also not sure I've ever seen him fight. I've seen Siver and he is an impressive kickboxer with a solid ground game. He's coming off a decision win against top contender George Sotiropoulos and is looking like he could be a potential contender within the next six to twelve months. I hate going with a fighter just because I know him more, but Siver has the more impressive record and a skillset I'm aware of. Let's go with Siver by decision.
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a welterweight fight featuring two of the top fighters in the division, with both men probably one or two fights away from a title shot. Condit is coming off two impressive knockouts - a first round KO of Dan Hardy in October and a third round miracle TKO against Rory McDonald last June. Kim has shown effective wrestling and grappling in winning fights over Amir Sadollah and Nate Diaz. Condit has been out of action for a long time and is coming off of surgery, so ring rust could be a major factor for him. I think Kim has the grappling to win this by decision, but Condit is exciting and fights hard. I'm a fan of his and so I'm going to with Condit by 3rd Round TKO.
Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader: This fight has a better than forty precent chance of being really boring, as both men are wrestlers with some weak striking. Bader is coming off his first loss ever after being tooled by Jon Jones and submitted. Tito hasn't won a fight since beating the piss out of Ken Shamrock in 2006. Since then he has lost a decision to Lyoto Machida (where he almost pulled off a submission), had a draw with Rashad Evans after having a point deducted for grabbing the cage, a split decision loss to Forrest Griffin that shouldn't have been split, and was dominated by Matt Hamill this past fall en route to a decision loss. With the exception of the Hamill fight, he has only lost to top flight competition and he hasn't been finished in any of them. He's been competitive for the most part, but he isn't good enough to win or bad enough to just get crushed like Chuck Liddell over the past few years. Bader is another tough fight, as he was considered a top light heavyweight with a lot of potential before Jones tooled him. It will be interesting to see how he recovers from that. He should be able to beat Tito, as he is a younger version of of Ortiz. I'll be cheering for Tito just because that dude deserves to win at least once more before he retires, but I'm almost certain this is going to be Bader by decision.
Co-Main Event
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben: This is a fight that has been a year in the making, but Wand had about fifteen surgeries and hasn't fought since February 2010, when he beat Michael Bisping by decision. Leben took Silva's place in May and beat Yoshihiro Akiyama by third round submission in one of the best fights I've ever seen and then followed that up with a DWI and a first round knockout loss to Brian Stann this past January. This should be an exciting brawl, since both men do not go to the ground and will stand and trade punches all day. I think it is a near certainty someone is getting knocked out. Leben's chin has come into question after Stann finished him in a way that had only been done once prior, and Silva's chin has been called into question consistently over the past few years. I would like to see Wand go into PRIDE mode and beast on Leben with a knockout, but I think that his chin won't hold up to his opponent's punching power. I want Wanderlei by 2nd round KO, but think it will be Leben by 2nd round KO.
Main Event
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber: This fight pits the dominant champ in Cruz, who has not lost in four years against Faber, the former featherweight kingpin and the only man to beat Cruz. Cruz employs a technical striking style that, although lacking in finishing power, has not been deciphered by any opponent yet. The odds of Cruz finishing Faber are pretty much nil, as no one finishes the California Kid. Faber is in his third fight at 135 lbs. and his last fight was a disappointing decision win over Eddie Wineland. What makes this fight especially interesting, other than Cruz attempting to avenge his lone loss, is that these two dudes can't stand each other. They have been sniping at each other for a couple of years now, so it should be interesting to get to see them face off again. Faber can't stand and box with Cruz, or he will lose a decision. He needs to push the pace, bully Cruz against the cage, work some takedowns and try to throw him off his game early. If he doesn't, he'll lose a decision. I will be desperately cheering for a Faber win, as he is exciting and seems like a good dude. I doubt how much Faber has left in the tank though. He had to drop to bantamweight after it became apparent he could no longer compete for the title at featherweight, and his last fight at 135 was not very impressive. Cruz, on the other hand, should be entering the prime of his career. I think it's going to be Cruz by decision.
As always, feel free to leave your predictions on the comments page or my facebook page.
Main Card
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman: This is a lightweight scrap featuring two men who have each won seven of their past eight fights. I don't know too much about Wiman besides the fact he was on a season of Ultimate Fighter in 2007 and didn't win. I'm also not sure I've ever seen him fight. I've seen Siver and he is an impressive kickboxer with a solid ground game. He's coming off a decision win against top contender George Sotiropoulos and is looking like he could be a potential contender within the next six to twelve months. I hate going with a fighter just because I know him more, but Siver has the more impressive record and a skillset I'm aware of. Let's go with Siver by decision.
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a welterweight fight featuring two of the top fighters in the division, with both men probably one or two fights away from a title shot. Condit is coming off two impressive knockouts - a first round KO of Dan Hardy in October and a third round miracle TKO against Rory McDonald last June. Kim has shown effective wrestling and grappling in winning fights over Amir Sadollah and Nate Diaz. Condit has been out of action for a long time and is coming off of surgery, so ring rust could be a major factor for him. I think Kim has the grappling to win this by decision, but Condit is exciting and fights hard. I'm a fan of his and so I'm going to with Condit by 3rd Round TKO.
Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader: This fight has a better than forty precent chance of being really boring, as both men are wrestlers with some weak striking. Bader is coming off his first loss ever after being tooled by Jon Jones and submitted. Tito hasn't won a fight since beating the piss out of Ken Shamrock in 2006. Since then he has lost a decision to Lyoto Machida (where he almost pulled off a submission), had a draw with Rashad Evans after having a point deducted for grabbing the cage, a split decision loss to Forrest Griffin that shouldn't have been split, and was dominated by Matt Hamill this past fall en route to a decision loss. With the exception of the Hamill fight, he has only lost to top flight competition and he hasn't been finished in any of them. He's been competitive for the most part, but he isn't good enough to win or bad enough to just get crushed like Chuck Liddell over the past few years. Bader is another tough fight, as he was considered a top light heavyweight with a lot of potential before Jones tooled him. It will be interesting to see how he recovers from that. He should be able to beat Tito, as he is a younger version of of Ortiz. I'll be cheering for Tito just because that dude deserves to win at least once more before he retires, but I'm almost certain this is going to be Bader by decision.
Co-Main Event
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben: This is a fight that has been a year in the making, but Wand had about fifteen surgeries and hasn't fought since February 2010, when he beat Michael Bisping by decision. Leben took Silva's place in May and beat Yoshihiro Akiyama by third round submission in one of the best fights I've ever seen and then followed that up with a DWI and a first round knockout loss to Brian Stann this past January. This should be an exciting brawl, since both men do not go to the ground and will stand and trade punches all day. I think it is a near certainty someone is getting knocked out. Leben's chin has come into question after Stann finished him in a way that had only been done once prior, and Silva's chin has been called into question consistently over the past few years. I would like to see Wand go into PRIDE mode and beast on Leben with a knockout, but I think that his chin won't hold up to his opponent's punching power. I want Wanderlei by 2nd round KO, but think it will be Leben by 2nd round KO.
Main Event
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber: This fight pits the dominant champ in Cruz, who has not lost in four years against Faber, the former featherweight kingpin and the only man to beat Cruz. Cruz employs a technical striking style that, although lacking in finishing power, has not been deciphered by any opponent yet. The odds of Cruz finishing Faber are pretty much nil, as no one finishes the California Kid. Faber is in his third fight at 135 lbs. and his last fight was a disappointing decision win over Eddie Wineland. What makes this fight especially interesting, other than Cruz attempting to avenge his lone loss, is that these two dudes can't stand each other. They have been sniping at each other for a couple of years now, so it should be interesting to get to see them face off again. Faber can't stand and box with Cruz, or he will lose a decision. He needs to push the pace, bully Cruz against the cage, work some takedowns and try to throw him off his game early. If he doesn't, he'll lose a decision. I will be desperately cheering for a Faber win, as he is exciting and seems like a good dude. I doubt how much Faber has left in the tank though. He had to drop to bantamweight after it became apparent he could no longer compete for the title at featherweight, and his last fight at 135 was not very impressive. Cruz, on the other hand, should be entering the prime of his career. I think it's going to be Cruz by decision.
As always, feel free to leave your predictions on the comments page or my facebook page.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
UFC 130 Predictions
This Saturday is UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill. It was originally UFC 130: Edgar vs. Maynard III for the UFC Lightweight Title, but both men had to pull out with injuries. The co-main event of Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Matt "The Hammer" Hamill has been promoted to main event, while Frank Mir and Roy Nelson are bumped to co-main status. Seeing as how I can't stand Maynard or Edgar and these two fights have the potential to be perversely entertaining, it is quite the upgrade in my book. Actually this card isn't bad, featuring a welterweight scrap between Thiago Alves and Rick Story, as well as a middleweight fight between Brian Stann and Jorge Santiago. Since I'm at work and God knows that I never set aside time to update this thing, let's get right into it.
Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago: Stann is coming off an impressive KO win over Chris Leben back in January and was lobbying for a fight with Wanderlei Silva, but instead gets Jorge Santiago, who is returning to the UFC. In his first stint, Santiago went 1-2 and has gone 11-1 since. This should be a good stand up fight between men who excel in striking. Santiago is more polished and experienced, but Stann should only be getting better at this point in his career. I'm going to with Stann by decision, as he has fought the better competition and should be a fighter on the rise, where Santiago should be somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Thiago Alves vs Rick Story: This welterweight match pits top-five weltwerweight Thiago Alves against the entertaining and tough Rick Story. Alves seems to have overcome some of his issues with weight cutting due to a switch to the Dolce Diet, helping him outlast John Howard by decision in his last fight. If Alves shows up in good shape, this should be his fight to win. He is three fights removed from his decision loss to GSP, so a few wins could move him back up the ladder. For Story, a win could propel him into the top ten in the division. I lean towards Alves by decision since he hasn't really finished anyone in a while and Story is a solid dude who has only lost by decision. On the other hand, Thiago's striking should be much better than Story's, and his takedown defense should be enough to keep him out of trouble.
Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne: This battle features two of the lower tier fighters in the heavyweight division, although to be fair there is only an upper tier and a lower tier. Struve is a decent prospect, but the dude needs to add some weight to his 6'11 frame so he doesn't crumple every time he gets blasted. His fights are usually pretty exciting and at age 23, he has a lot of time to grow and mature as a fighter. Browne, I know nothing about other than that he had a lame fight with Cheick Kongo and he beat James McSweeney, a castmember from the awful Ultimate Fighter Season 10. If I remember correctly from the Kongo scrap, Browne's takedown and ground defense is not great and Struve has a decent ground game. Barring a first round mauling, I like Struve by second round submission.
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson: This fight cracks me up since I, as well as everyone I'm watching this card with, cannot stand either man. Mir is obnoxious and not nearly as good as he likes to think and Nelson is a fat ass novelty act. The intrigue in this fight comes to two things - Nelson beat Mir six years and 60 pounds ago in a jiu jitsu grappling competition and the winner of this fight could be one or two fights away from a title shot, with their next opponent being the winner of Schaub-Nogueira in a title eliminator. I think that Mir is probably better standing than Nelson and they are probably even on the ground, with Nelson having a better top game than Mir does. I've never seen Nelson have to work off his back, but Mir has always been good on his back unless against Lesnar or Carwin. I would expect this fight to stay standing, and if Junior Dos Santos and his skilled striking couldn't KO Nelson, I don't see how Mir will. I do think that Mir is probably just above Nelson in terms of ranking, with Nelson being a solid midlevel heavyweight and Mir being in between the middle and upper level. I think this fight goes to Mir by decision.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Matt Hamill: This fight is hilarious, as Rampage is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and has main evented several cards, while Hamill's biggest fights are his DQ win against Jon Jones due to illegal elbows in a fight where he was getting straight mauled and a decision win over the ghost of Tito Ortiz. Jackson was supposed to fight Thiago Silva on this card, but Silva was taken off after testing positive for PEDs after his last fight and Hamill begged to get a crack at Rampage. In theory, Rampage should knock Hamill's head into the cheap seats, but his conditioning and motivation are always suspect. This rings especially true for this fight, as Hamill is older and slower, his takedowns are nullified by Jackson's takedown defense, and he cannot stand and trade punches with him. Rampage has nothing to gain from this fight and has been openly discussing retiring in two years. That said, he knows that if he has an impressive showing against Hamill, he will probably be fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title this fall against Jon Jones, which should be a big seller and earn him a fat paycheck. While a Hamill decision win wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever since the odds of him working far harder than Rampage are not too shabby, I think Rampage has been annoyed a bit by Hamill's trash talk and knows that he can put down Hamill. Also, undersized light heavyweight Rich Franklin put Hamill down with a liver kick and Rampage hits much, much harder than "Ace." I'm going with Rampage by second round KO.
That concludes the predictions for UFC 130. My brother may put up predictions; he may not. If the Bulls lose to the Heat this week there may be a period of mourning here at Black Belt Basketball, but I digress a bit. If you want to share your thoughts and predictions on the upcoming card, feel free to leave a comment here or on my or Joe's Facebook walls.
Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago: Stann is coming off an impressive KO win over Chris Leben back in January and was lobbying for a fight with Wanderlei Silva, but instead gets Jorge Santiago, who is returning to the UFC. In his first stint, Santiago went 1-2 and has gone 11-1 since. This should be a good stand up fight between men who excel in striking. Santiago is more polished and experienced, but Stann should only be getting better at this point in his career. I'm going to with Stann by decision, as he has fought the better competition and should be a fighter on the rise, where Santiago should be somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Thiago Alves vs Rick Story: This welterweight match pits top-five weltwerweight Thiago Alves against the entertaining and tough Rick Story. Alves seems to have overcome some of his issues with weight cutting due to a switch to the Dolce Diet, helping him outlast John Howard by decision in his last fight. If Alves shows up in good shape, this should be his fight to win. He is three fights removed from his decision loss to GSP, so a few wins could move him back up the ladder. For Story, a win could propel him into the top ten in the division. I lean towards Alves by decision since he hasn't really finished anyone in a while and Story is a solid dude who has only lost by decision. On the other hand, Thiago's striking should be much better than Story's, and his takedown defense should be enough to keep him out of trouble.
Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne: This battle features two of the lower tier fighters in the heavyweight division, although to be fair there is only an upper tier and a lower tier. Struve is a decent prospect, but the dude needs to add some weight to his 6'11 frame so he doesn't crumple every time he gets blasted. His fights are usually pretty exciting and at age 23, he has a lot of time to grow and mature as a fighter. Browne, I know nothing about other than that he had a lame fight with Cheick Kongo and he beat James McSweeney, a castmember from the awful Ultimate Fighter Season 10. If I remember correctly from the Kongo scrap, Browne's takedown and ground defense is not great and Struve has a decent ground game. Barring a first round mauling, I like Struve by second round submission.
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson: This fight cracks me up since I, as well as everyone I'm watching this card with, cannot stand either man. Mir is obnoxious and not nearly as good as he likes to think and Nelson is a fat ass novelty act. The intrigue in this fight comes to two things - Nelson beat Mir six years and 60 pounds ago in a jiu jitsu grappling competition and the winner of this fight could be one or two fights away from a title shot, with their next opponent being the winner of Schaub-Nogueira in a title eliminator. I think that Mir is probably better standing than Nelson and they are probably even on the ground, with Nelson having a better top game than Mir does. I've never seen Nelson have to work off his back, but Mir has always been good on his back unless against Lesnar or Carwin. I would expect this fight to stay standing, and if Junior Dos Santos and his skilled striking couldn't KO Nelson, I don't see how Mir will. I do think that Mir is probably just above Nelson in terms of ranking, with Nelson being a solid midlevel heavyweight and Mir being in between the middle and upper level. I think this fight goes to Mir by decision.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Matt Hamill: This fight is hilarious, as Rampage is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and has main evented several cards, while Hamill's biggest fights are his DQ win against Jon Jones due to illegal elbows in a fight where he was getting straight mauled and a decision win over the ghost of Tito Ortiz. Jackson was supposed to fight Thiago Silva on this card, but Silva was taken off after testing positive for PEDs after his last fight and Hamill begged to get a crack at Rampage. In theory, Rampage should knock Hamill's head into the cheap seats, but his conditioning and motivation are always suspect. This rings especially true for this fight, as Hamill is older and slower, his takedowns are nullified by Jackson's takedown defense, and he cannot stand and trade punches with him. Rampage has nothing to gain from this fight and has been openly discussing retiring in two years. That said, he knows that if he has an impressive showing against Hamill, he will probably be fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title this fall against Jon Jones, which should be a big seller and earn him a fat paycheck. While a Hamill decision win wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever since the odds of him working far harder than Rampage are not too shabby, I think Rampage has been annoyed a bit by Hamill's trash talk and knows that he can put down Hamill. Also, undersized light heavyweight Rich Franklin put Hamill down with a liver kick and Rampage hits much, much harder than "Ace." I'm going with Rampage by second round KO.
That concludes the predictions for UFC 130. My brother may put up predictions; he may not. If the Bulls lose to the Heat this week there may be a period of mourning here at Black Belt Basketball, but I digress a bit. If you want to share your thoughts and predictions on the upcoming card, feel free to leave a comment here or on my or Joe's Facebook walls.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Bulls vs. Heat: A long time coming
It began in December 4th, 2009. The 13-5 Cleveland Cavaliers went up against the 7-9 Chicago Bulls. Just a month earlier the Bulls eked out a one point victory against the Cavs. When they faced off again, LeBron James made sure to bask in the glory of beating on a team that had lost five of six in the games previous and was below .500. LeBron danced and pranced as the Cavs were blowing out the Bulls, which prompted Joakim Noah to start jawing at him. Keep in mind the Cavs were predicted to finish with the best record in the NBA and did end up doing that, while people didn’t even know if the Bulls would make the playoffs. We've never seen LeBron dance while beating a good team.
LeBron’s arrogance on that night and through the rest of the season prompted Noah to say he wanted to face off against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls battled back from injuries to their entire starting line up and managed to secure the 8 seed, granting Noah his wish of playing Cleveland. Noah supplied classic quotes about the city of Cleveland and every game was closely contested even though it only lasted five games. Derrick Rose and Noah had a great series but the Cavs eliminated them. The Cavs went on to get embarrassed by the Boston Celtics in the next round, and the years of rumors about LeBron leaving Cleveland blasted to historic levels.
At the same time, Chris Bosh of the Toronto Raptors made it clear before the season even ended that he had no intention of staying come summer. He tanked most of the season and seemed disinterested in the Raptors’s success, or lack thereof. He even took to Twitter asking where he should play the 2010-11 season. Meanwhile in South Beach, Dwyane Wade seemed like he might be leaving Miami since they had dropped off hard since winning the 2006 Championship. An ass-kicking at the hands of the Celtics in the first round of the 2010 playoffs when many thought the Heat would knock off Boston seemed to be the straw that would break the camel’s back.
When the free agency period began in July following the season, Bosh made it clear he was going to just follow Wade or LeBron. Wade and Bosh both met with the Chicago Bulls multiple times and it seemed like Chicago was going to be their likely destination. LeBron James had his ego stroked the most, carrying out his decision over the course of a week and inviting six teams to meet with him and pitch their plans for the future. They were the Clippers, Nets, Knicks, Cavaliers, Bulls, and Heat. Chicago seemed like the likely pick early on, but when Wade and Bosh said they were uniting in Miami, everybody knew where LeBron was going.
In one of the most unbelievable (and not the good kind) moments in sports history, LeBron made ESPN devote an hour to his choice in a program called The Decision. It was an hour long infomercial about his self-proclaimed greatness, which culminated in him going on live national television and kicking the Cavaliers organization in the nuts. That is another rant for another time. LeBron made his decision by saying, “I’m going to take my talents to South Beach.” LeBron headed down to Miami and held lavish celebration after lavish celebration. The Heat organization even had the big three get together for what was essentially a championship celebration before the season even began. The line in the sand was drawn: You were either jumping on the band wagon, or you wanted to see these showboats get beat.
But while other teams were falling head over heels for LeBron, the Chicago Bulls were not. Derrick Rose texted James one time to tell him he’d like to play with him, Noah reached out but never heard back, Carlos Boozer reached out to LeBron briefly after he signed with Chicago, and the Bulls made their pitch in LeBron’s little free agency summit. But as evidenced with Rose’s lack of eagerness to sway LeBron, Chicago was prepared to live without him. The Bulls did however want Dwyane Wade. Derrick Rose contacted Wade multiple times about coming to Chicago, but Wade never responded. What would happen in Chicago after The Decision would shape a season almost nobody other than die hard fans and the Bulls organization expected.
Joakim Noah was seen walking through the streets with a huge grin on his face after LeBron announced he was going to Miami. He seemed genuinely glad he wouldn’t have to team up with James. Noah even went so far as to say, “It’s perfect.” He even came out and said that the Bulls would be the team that would take it to Miami when everything was on the line. Tough talk for a guy on a team people expected to finish maybe around the 4 or 5 seed.
Derrick Rose was so driven by the way LeBron, Wade, and Bosh acted that he went into the gym and busted his ass all summer to become a killer. He improved his defense, his shooting, his passing, and he came into training camp wondering out loud about winning the Most Valuable Player award. Again, tough talk for a guy on a team who people didn’t think would amount to the Celtics or Magic or the new superbeast in Miami.
The Bulls hired Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach and he along with executives Gar Forman and John Paxson built a roster that would end up becoming the deepest in the league. Thibodeau’s defense-first mindset took hold over the roster and they were primed to do serious damage over the course of the season.
Then the season began with Miami as the league’s biggest tale, but with injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah somehow Derrick Rose carried the Bulls to elite status. As the season went on, Rose built a reputation for being a great closer while the Heat’s inability to win close games made them an easy target. The Bulls beat Miami in all three regular season meetings, never winning by more than four but still doing damage. In fact after the third loss to Chicago, Heat players were crying in the locker room. But Chicago still wasn’t on the top of Miami’s hit list.
All summer the Heat built themselves up with the mission of beating the Boston Celtics. The C’s were the defending Eastern Conference champs and LeBron and Wade wanted revenge for their post-season failures against them. All year their focus was to take it to Boston. The Heat got their wish, dismantling the old Celtics in five games and making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. But now that they've got there, they’re facing a team that has prepared for this since the summer.
The Bulls have the MVP in Derrick Rose and the Coach of the Year in Tom Thibodeau. They have the deepest roster in the league and the best defense. While they lacked the flashiness of the Heat, all season they’ve displayed the heart it seems Miami is too often missing. And all season they worked their asses off to get the best record in the NBA. The catalyst for all of this amazing success the Bulls are enjoying this year? The Miami Heat.
Just the other night after eliminating the Atlanta Hawks, Noah stated this is what the Bulls have wanted all season. Rose and Noah have wanted to send a message since last summer. They’ve wanted to prove themselves to the big three. Rose, Noah, and the entire Bulls team are out to show that while the Heat’s big three are concerned with the glamour and notoriety that comes with success, there is a hard-working team that is all about winning regardless of who gets the credit for it. That is what makes this next part so painful.
While it is no secret I am a die hard Bulls fan, I have to state that my prediction for this series is the Heat in six. Derrick Rose can’t be the only Bull to create if they want to win, Carlos Boozer needs to consistently perform well if they want to win, and Luol Deng needs to survive playing 45 minutes of a 48 minute game every night. All of those becoming realities seem too unlikely against a team like Miami. Also since the NBA does pick who they want (if you type in “rigging games” in a Yahoo search the first Also Try result is “nba rigging games”), I can’t imagine the Bulls getting to the foul line anywhere near as much as the Heat since Miami making the Finals would be a huge story.
But NBA conspiracies aside, the Bulls have only sparingly been dominant in the post-season. They’re going to need to be dominant every night if they want to win this series. However with Miami's focus being on Boston and LeBron acting like he won the championship following the victory against the C's there is a chance Miami is not ready for what the Bulls can bring. While I’m sure the result of the series will leave me with massive heartache, I’m so pumped for this series just because of the build up. Chicago never really wanted LeBron and they’ve wanted to slap the taste out of his mouth in the playoffs for a long time. Now with Derrick Rose on the cusp of solidifying his place as the game’s top player, this series takes on a whole new level of intensity. Game 1 is tonight at 8. I don’t know what is going to happen, but I know we might be in for some of the most intense basketball of the season.
LeBron’s arrogance on that night and through the rest of the season prompted Noah to say he wanted to face off against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls battled back from injuries to their entire starting line up and managed to secure the 8 seed, granting Noah his wish of playing Cleveland. Noah supplied classic quotes about the city of Cleveland and every game was closely contested even though it only lasted five games. Derrick Rose and Noah had a great series but the Cavs eliminated them. The Cavs went on to get embarrassed by the Boston Celtics in the next round, and the years of rumors about LeBron leaving Cleveland blasted to historic levels.
At the same time, Chris Bosh of the Toronto Raptors made it clear before the season even ended that he had no intention of staying come summer. He tanked most of the season and seemed disinterested in the Raptors’s success, or lack thereof. He even took to Twitter asking where he should play the 2010-11 season. Meanwhile in South Beach, Dwyane Wade seemed like he might be leaving Miami since they had dropped off hard since winning the 2006 Championship. An ass-kicking at the hands of the Celtics in the first round of the 2010 playoffs when many thought the Heat would knock off Boston seemed to be the straw that would break the camel’s back.
When the free agency period began in July following the season, Bosh made it clear he was going to just follow Wade or LeBron. Wade and Bosh both met with the Chicago Bulls multiple times and it seemed like Chicago was going to be their likely destination. LeBron James had his ego stroked the most, carrying out his decision over the course of a week and inviting six teams to meet with him and pitch their plans for the future. They were the Clippers, Nets, Knicks, Cavaliers, Bulls, and Heat. Chicago seemed like the likely pick early on, but when Wade and Bosh said they were uniting in Miami, everybody knew where LeBron was going.
In one of the most unbelievable (and not the good kind) moments in sports history, LeBron made ESPN devote an hour to his choice in a program called The Decision. It was an hour long infomercial about his self-proclaimed greatness, which culminated in him going on live national television and kicking the Cavaliers organization in the nuts. That is another rant for another time. LeBron made his decision by saying, “I’m going to take my talents to South Beach.” LeBron headed down to Miami and held lavish celebration after lavish celebration. The Heat organization even had the big three get together for what was essentially a championship celebration before the season even began. The line in the sand was drawn: You were either jumping on the band wagon, or you wanted to see these showboats get beat.
But while other teams were falling head over heels for LeBron, the Chicago Bulls were not. Derrick Rose texted James one time to tell him he’d like to play with him, Noah reached out but never heard back, Carlos Boozer reached out to LeBron briefly after he signed with Chicago, and the Bulls made their pitch in LeBron’s little free agency summit. But as evidenced with Rose’s lack of eagerness to sway LeBron, Chicago was prepared to live without him. The Bulls did however want Dwyane Wade. Derrick Rose contacted Wade multiple times about coming to Chicago, but Wade never responded. What would happen in Chicago after The Decision would shape a season almost nobody other than die hard fans and the Bulls organization expected.
Joakim Noah was seen walking through the streets with a huge grin on his face after LeBron announced he was going to Miami. He seemed genuinely glad he wouldn’t have to team up with James. Noah even went so far as to say, “It’s perfect.” He even came out and said that the Bulls would be the team that would take it to Miami when everything was on the line. Tough talk for a guy on a team people expected to finish maybe around the 4 or 5 seed.
Derrick Rose was so driven by the way LeBron, Wade, and Bosh acted that he went into the gym and busted his ass all summer to become a killer. He improved his defense, his shooting, his passing, and he came into training camp wondering out loud about winning the Most Valuable Player award. Again, tough talk for a guy on a team who people didn’t think would amount to the Celtics or Magic or the new superbeast in Miami.
The Bulls hired Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach and he along with executives Gar Forman and John Paxson built a roster that would end up becoming the deepest in the league. Thibodeau’s defense-first mindset took hold over the roster and they were primed to do serious damage over the course of the season.
Then the season began with Miami as the league’s biggest tale, but with injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah somehow Derrick Rose carried the Bulls to elite status. As the season went on, Rose built a reputation for being a great closer while the Heat’s inability to win close games made them an easy target. The Bulls beat Miami in all three regular season meetings, never winning by more than four but still doing damage. In fact after the third loss to Chicago, Heat players were crying in the locker room. But Chicago still wasn’t on the top of Miami’s hit list.
All summer the Heat built themselves up with the mission of beating the Boston Celtics. The C’s were the defending Eastern Conference champs and LeBron and Wade wanted revenge for their post-season failures against them. All year their focus was to take it to Boston. The Heat got their wish, dismantling the old Celtics in five games and making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. But now that they've got there, they’re facing a team that has prepared for this since the summer.
The Bulls have the MVP in Derrick Rose and the Coach of the Year in Tom Thibodeau. They have the deepest roster in the league and the best defense. While they lacked the flashiness of the Heat, all season they’ve displayed the heart it seems Miami is too often missing. And all season they worked their asses off to get the best record in the NBA. The catalyst for all of this amazing success the Bulls are enjoying this year? The Miami Heat.
Just the other night after eliminating the Atlanta Hawks, Noah stated this is what the Bulls have wanted all season. Rose and Noah have wanted to send a message since last summer. They’ve wanted to prove themselves to the big three. Rose, Noah, and the entire Bulls team are out to show that while the Heat’s big three are concerned with the glamour and notoriety that comes with success, there is a hard-working team that is all about winning regardless of who gets the credit for it. That is what makes this next part so painful.
While it is no secret I am a die hard Bulls fan, I have to state that my prediction for this series is the Heat in six. Derrick Rose can’t be the only Bull to create if they want to win, Carlos Boozer needs to consistently perform well if they want to win, and Luol Deng needs to survive playing 45 minutes of a 48 minute game every night. All of those becoming realities seem too unlikely against a team like Miami. Also since the NBA does pick who they want (if you type in “rigging games” in a Yahoo search the first Also Try result is “nba rigging games”), I can’t imagine the Bulls getting to the foul line anywhere near as much as the Heat since Miami making the Finals would be a huge story.
But NBA conspiracies aside, the Bulls have only sparingly been dominant in the post-season. They’re going to need to be dominant every night if they want to win this series. However with Miami's focus being on Boston and LeBron acting like he won the championship following the victory against the C's there is a chance Miami is not ready for what the Bulls can bring. While I’m sure the result of the series will leave me with massive heartache, I’m so pumped for this series just because of the build up. Chicago never really wanted LeBron and they’ve wanted to slap the taste out of his mouth in the playoffs for a long time. Now with Derrick Rose on the cusp of solidifying his place as the game’s top player, this series takes on a whole new level of intensity. Game 1 is tonight at 8. I don’t know what is going to happen, but I know we might be in for some of the most intense basketball of the season.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
NBA Playoff Predictions, Round Two
Well, the first round of the NBA Playoffs has come to a close and there have been some surprises, like the Lakers and Bulls struggling with their competition and the Spurs
WESTERN CONFERENCE
4.) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8.) Memphis Grizzlies: The Thunder dispatched the Nuggets in a five game stretch where Kevin Durant proved himself to be the greatest scorer in the history of the world, and Russell Westbrook tried to be the Stringer Bell to Durant's Avon Barksdale and usurp his power. The Griz upset the top seed Spurs in six games by destroying them down low with the Randolph/Gasol combo. This should be a fun, competitive series. The Grizzlies beat the Thunder three out of four times this season, but their frontcourt advantage won't be as pronounced since OKC now has Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka playing significant time down low and they can put a body on Memphis' bigs. Durant might struggle a bit with Shane Battier on him, but I don't think that Mike Conley can handle Westbrook. Memphis has a good chance to win the series, but I think OKC is the Western Conference Team of Destiny. I'm going to go with Thunder in seven.
2.) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3.) Dallas Mavericks: The Lakers got here by surprisingly struggling to beat the Hornets in six games and the Mavs advanced by surprisingly (to me) beating the TrailBlazers in six games. This could be an interesting series, as Dallas is capable of beating L.A., even though I'm near certain that they will not. If the Lakers are going to play like big boys again, they should be able to beat Dallas convincingly. There's no Chris Paul here to give the Lakers fits, and Dirk Nowitzki can be stifled by the Bynum/Odom/Gasol/Artest/Barnes frontcourt. After Dirk, no one else on the Mavericks can really score, while the Lakers have four guys who can put up 20 points each. I think Dallas wins a couple to make it interesting, but ultimately it will be Lakers in six.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1.) Chicago Bulls vs. 5.) Atlanta Hawks: The Bulls got here by beating the Pacers in a tough five game series (the only series I predicted exactly right in terms of winner and amount of games), while the Hawks managed to finally topple Orlando in six games. As a Bulls fan, the Hawks scare me because they can randomly be really good and then be terrible the next night. Their offense and defense is erratic, while the Bulls have an erratic offense and consistently stingy defense. I expect Hinrich to get a lot of burn for Atlanta, as he usually defends Rose well. I expect Boozer to play considerably better, as he won't be outsized physically by larger defenders as he was against Indiana. Like the last round, I expect these games to be close more often than not, but Chicago is more consistent and has the better depth and talent. Bulls in seven.
2.) Miami Heat vs. 3.) Boston Celtics: The series everyone has been waiting for, albeit a round earlier than everyone expected. The Heat got to the second round by dispatching the 76ers in a tough five game series, while the Celtics swept the Knicks and finished strongly with two blowout wins to seal that matchup. The Celtics won three of four against the Heat during the regular season, but Miami won the most recent game in dominating fashion. This series could really go either way, but I think that if Shaq is healthy then the Celtics should have a huge advantage in depth. They can trot out the O'Neals, Big Baby, Garnett, and Kristic and the Heat really only have Bosh, Dampier, Joel Anthony, and Juwan Howard. Not impressive. If Rondo's play against the Knicks wasn't an aberration and he is back to his early season form, the Bibby/Chalmers combo won't get it done and as it has been all season, Miami will need Wade and LBJ to carry them. The other interesting thing is that Wade and LBJ have yet to really jell together as teammates and now they have to try to do it against a stingy Boston defense. I think that this is Boston's series to lose, despite not having homecourt advantage and being the older team. If the Celtics stay healthy, they should have the overall team and psychological edge. It should be a tough, tough series and both teams can be unpredictable, but I have to go with Celtics in seven.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
4.) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8.) Memphis Grizzlies: The Thunder dispatched the Nuggets in a five game stretch where Kevin Durant proved himself to be the greatest scorer in the history of the world, and Russell Westbrook tried to be the Stringer Bell to Durant's Avon Barksdale and usurp his power. The Griz upset the top seed Spurs in six games by destroying them down low with the Randolph/Gasol combo. This should be a fun, competitive series. The Grizzlies beat the Thunder three out of four times this season, but their frontcourt advantage won't be as pronounced since OKC now has Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka playing significant time down low and they can put a body on Memphis' bigs. Durant might struggle a bit with Shane Battier on him, but I don't think that Mike Conley can handle Westbrook. Memphis has a good chance to win the series, but I think OKC is the Western Conference Team of Destiny. I'm going to go with Thunder in seven.
2.) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3.) Dallas Mavericks: The Lakers got here by surprisingly struggling to beat the Hornets in six games and the Mavs advanced by surprisingly (to me) beating the TrailBlazers in six games. This could be an interesting series, as Dallas is capable of beating L.A., even though I'm near certain that they will not. If the Lakers are going to play like big boys again, they should be able to beat Dallas convincingly. There's no Chris Paul here to give the Lakers fits, and Dirk Nowitzki can be stifled by the Bynum/Odom/Gasol/Artest/Barnes frontcourt. After Dirk, no one else on the Mavericks can really score, while the Lakers have four guys who can put up 20 points each. I think Dallas wins a couple to make it interesting, but ultimately it will be Lakers in six.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1.) Chicago Bulls vs. 5.) Atlanta Hawks: The Bulls got here by beating the Pacers in a tough five game series (the only series I predicted exactly right in terms of winner and amount of games), while the Hawks managed to finally topple Orlando in six games. As a Bulls fan, the Hawks scare me because they can randomly be really good and then be terrible the next night. Their offense and defense is erratic, while the Bulls have an erratic offense and consistently stingy defense. I expect Hinrich to get a lot of burn for Atlanta, as he usually defends Rose well. I expect Boozer to play considerably better, as he won't be outsized physically by larger defenders as he was against Indiana. Like the last round, I expect these games to be close more often than not, but Chicago is more consistent and has the better depth and talent. Bulls in seven.
2.) Miami Heat vs. 3.) Boston Celtics: The series everyone has been waiting for, albeit a round earlier than everyone expected. The Heat got to the second round by dispatching the 76ers in a tough five game series, while the Celtics swept the Knicks and finished strongly with two blowout wins to seal that matchup. The Celtics won three of four against the Heat during the regular season, but Miami won the most recent game in dominating fashion. This series could really go either way, but I think that if Shaq is healthy then the Celtics should have a huge advantage in depth. They can trot out the O'Neals, Big Baby, Garnett, and Kristic and the Heat really only have Bosh, Dampier, Joel Anthony, and Juwan Howard. Not impressive. If Rondo's play against the Knicks wasn't an aberration and he is back to his early season form, the Bibby/Chalmers combo won't get it done and as it has been all season, Miami will need Wade and LBJ to carry them. The other interesting thing is that Wade and LBJ have yet to really jell together as teammates and now they have to try to do it against a stingy Boston defense. I think that this is Boston's series to lose, despite not having homecourt advantage and being the older team. If the Celtics stay healthy, they should have the overall team and psychological edge. It should be a tough, tough series and both teams can be unpredictable, but I have to go with Celtics in seven.
Joe's UFC 129 Predictions
UFC 129 goes down tonight in Ontario in front of a crowd of 55,000. UFC Welterweight Champion and Canadian Georges St. Pierre will be defending his title against Jake Shields, and UFC Hall of Famer Randy “The Natural” Couture will be fighting his final fight against former light heavyweight champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. I will not see the card tonight as I have prior engagements to attend, but I will be freaking out over that Couture fight all evening. Here are my predictions, aside from pain.
Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: I haven’t the slightest clue who Mark Bocek is, but Ben Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champion. He lost his title to Anthony Pettis in a really great fight highlighted by Pettis nailing Henderson with the “Showtime Kick.” I’ll go with Henderson by decision.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Matyushenko’s nickname is The Janitor. I’m a fan. I was not aware the Janitor fought after getting fucked up by Jon Jones until I read my brother’s predictions earlier. Brilz couldn’t even beat the washed up Rogerio Nogueira almost a year ago so I’m not looking forward to his performance. He’ll most likely have some serious ring rust issues, and not being able to beat the weak Lil Nog doesn’t make me hopeful. I sense the Janitor by second round TKO.
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Couture is my hero. Here is a guy who is the second best of all time, surpassed only recently by Anderson Silva. Randy will turn 48 soon, so it is good he’s getting out of there since he can’t really take a punch at all anymore. Randy’s game plans have gotten him so many great victories over guys like Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. He knows how to cut off the octagon and trap his opponents and beat them down and bloody them up. But Lyoto Machida is the best fighter Randy has ever faced. The Dragon was undefeated up until a knockout victory to Shogun Rua last year, and then he lost a split decision to Rampage Jackson. Machida really should have won the Rampage fight, but that’s why you can’t leave it to the judges. Machida won’t leave this fight to the judges however. A few years ago Randy could’ve put up a big fight, but I’m not seeing that. Randy can’t take a punch, Machida is too fast and elusive, and Randy just doesn’t have it anymore. Machida wins by first round knockout.
UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: Aldo is friends with Anderson Silva. I’ve only seen highlights of Aldo’s work and that’s enough to know he’s violent. Hominick doesn’t stand a chance. Aldo by second round TKO.
UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: This is going to be a tough fight for GSP if Shields can go longer than a round or two, which after his fight against Martin Kampann I’m not so sure he can. Shields has great jiu jitsu and wrestling, but GSP hasn’t lost a round in years. I only care about this fight since if GSP wins there’s talk of a superfight with Anderson Silva. Other than that I have no desire to see another GSP fight in which he takes a guy down for five rounds and doesn’t finish them. I do think Shields could potentially pull off an Anderson Silva style submission in the later rounds. However, if and when Shields gasses out, I think GSP gets the TKO in the third round.
Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: I haven’t the slightest clue who Mark Bocek is, but Ben Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champion. He lost his title to Anthony Pettis in a really great fight highlighted by Pettis nailing Henderson with the “Showtime Kick.” I’ll go with Henderson by decision.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Matyushenko’s nickname is The Janitor. I’m a fan. I was not aware the Janitor fought after getting fucked up by Jon Jones until I read my brother’s predictions earlier. Brilz couldn’t even beat the washed up Rogerio Nogueira almost a year ago so I’m not looking forward to his performance. He’ll most likely have some serious ring rust issues, and not being able to beat the weak Lil Nog doesn’t make me hopeful. I sense the Janitor by second round TKO.
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Couture is my hero. Here is a guy who is the second best of all time, surpassed only recently by Anderson Silva. Randy will turn 48 soon, so it is good he’s getting out of there since he can’t really take a punch at all anymore. Randy’s game plans have gotten him so many great victories over guys like Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. He knows how to cut off the octagon and trap his opponents and beat them down and bloody them up. But Lyoto Machida is the best fighter Randy has ever faced. The Dragon was undefeated up until a knockout victory to Shogun Rua last year, and then he lost a split decision to Rampage Jackson. Machida really should have won the Rampage fight, but that’s why you can’t leave it to the judges. Machida won’t leave this fight to the judges however. A few years ago Randy could’ve put up a big fight, but I’m not seeing that. Randy can’t take a punch, Machida is too fast and elusive, and Randy just doesn’t have it anymore. Machida wins by first round knockout.
UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: Aldo is friends with Anderson Silva. I’ve only seen highlights of Aldo’s work and that’s enough to know he’s violent. Hominick doesn’t stand a chance. Aldo by second round TKO.
UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: This is going to be a tough fight for GSP if Shields can go longer than a round or two, which after his fight against Martin Kampann I’m not so sure he can. Shields has great jiu jitsu and wrestling, but GSP hasn’t lost a round in years. I only care about this fight since if GSP wins there’s talk of a superfight with Anderson Silva. Other than that I have no desire to see another GSP fight in which he takes a guy down for five rounds and doesn’t finish them. I do think Shields could potentially pull off an Anderson Silva style submission in the later rounds. However, if and when Shields gasses out, I think GSP gets the TKO in the third round.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Catch you in the second round!
Last night three series reached their epic conclusion and we can now start to look forward to the second round. I’ve included some brief second round predictions at the end, but first let’s check out how we got here. The Mavericks somehow eliminated the Portland Trailblazers, the Lakers remembered the Hornets suck, and Atlanta finally got rid of the Orlando Magic despite blowing a 12 point fourth quarter lead. A season or two ago I never would’ve believed what I’m about to say, but I was very happy about that last one happening.
The Orlando Magic used to be exciting and a team you would think about as a championship winner in the future. They’ve since turned into a team with players who don’t live up to expectations and make their star player suffer. Now I’m no fan of Dwight Howard, but I give the dude props since his game had been huge all season. He was clearly the number 2 MVP candidate behind Derrick Rose. However he is a baby always acting like the league is out to get him.
I also can’t stand Stan Van Gundy anymore since he’s become a huge baby as well always bitching about how everybody’s how to get Dwight and himself. Stan Van has also become a god-awful coach. Nobody on the Magic other than Dwight Howard is able to play any kind of defense. That game when they roared back from like 20 down to beat Miami, I turned that shit off because it was horrible to watch. Orlando’s offensive strategy consisted of standing around and shooting threes, or have Dwight dunk it. I guess they got hot in the second half and came back to win, but it didn’t look like that would be the case early on.
Today Basketbawful even made fun of their offensive strategy saying it should be called “Dunk or a Three.” I didn’t know that had become their regular thing, I figured it was just something they were doing against the Heat that night. But after watching their series with Atlanta I’ve learned that is all they do. That is why they fail. Even the run ‘n gun Suns don’t just camp out and shoot threes all game. And the Magic weren’t even the top three point shooting team in the league, but that is still their strategy. What the fuck?
Van Gundy’s piss poor offensive strategy has driven me nuts for the last couple months, and the fact nobody on that team plays defense and Van Gundy doesn’t seem to make it priority and that only makes me crazier. Howard and Van Gundy have also turned into huge babies since they haven’t been able to get over the hump and win a championship, further annoying me. Howard is always getting technicals and costs his team, and Van Gundy complains about how the league just hates the Magic. All this bitching made me take great joy in watching them lose last night.
What made it even better was somebody’s sign in the Atlanta crowd that read something like, “Don’t worry Jameer, we’ll tell Derrick you said hello in the second round.” I thought that was just some fans talking shit because they were eliminating the Magic, but as it turns out there was a larger purpose. I was watching the game on NBA TV and I can’t remember if it was the NBA TV people or if it was the people in the local Atlanta feed the game was airing on, but they showed a clip of Jameer Nelson telling Derrick Rose, “Catch you in the second round” after the Bulls beat Orlando near the end of the regular season. Owned! When you talk that shit while finishing the season poorly you deserve to get eliminated in the first round.
Meanwhile the Blazers sadly lost to the Mavs, bringing the best series of the playoffs thus far to an end. I was hoping Dallas won that series initially, but after Brandon Roy suddenly came back like a force and all the Blazers played their asses off I had to change my stance. The Blazers worked real hard so I felt bad they had to go out like this. I felt even worse since I missed the Mavs come back. I was watching the game and the Blazers looked to be in control, then I fell asleep and found out this morning the Mavericks won and now move on to round two. Great now we can watch the Lakers run through them in five games.
The Lakers closed out the Hornets last night, with Ron Artest kissing the guns and everything. I fucking hate Kobe Bryant so as much as it pains me to root against a Phil Jackson coached team, I hope Dallas can suddenly become good enough to beat a real ass team in the playoffs and get Los Angeles out of there. I do hope Pau Gasol can, as Lil Jon would scream, step his game up since I’m a fan of his work. He played like mildly better Carlos Boozer in this last series it seemed, and that’s not what LA needs from him.
Meanwhile the Spurs/Grizzlies series continues tonight back in Memphis for Game 6. The Grizzlies could become just the second 8 seed to beat the 1 seed since the first round became seven games. The Spurs comeback to win in overtime in Game 5 was one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen in my life so I’m excited for this game. The winner of this series will become cannon fodder for the OKC Thunder in the next round, but I’m still excited to see if the Grizzlies can win this series or if the Spurs can complete the come back from being down 3-1.
Either way, our second round matchups are nearly all set. Out in the East we shall see:
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics
Then out West it shall be:
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Winner of Spurs/Grizzlies
(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks
For fear of jinxing Chicago I will not comment on that series. For fear of putting some kind of curse on the Heat/Celtics series, I will not comment on it other than saying that is going to be the series to watch. It has been hyped up since July of last year when LeBron said he was taking his talents to South Beach. It is going to be crazy.
Out West OKC will finish off Memphis in five or San Antonio in six. The Lakers will dispose of Dallas in five most likely. I hope that isn’t the case, but I’m sure Los Angeles will once again be in the conference finals. We will catch them in the third round.
The Orlando Magic used to be exciting and a team you would think about as a championship winner in the future. They’ve since turned into a team with players who don’t live up to expectations and make their star player suffer. Now I’m no fan of Dwight Howard, but I give the dude props since his game had been huge all season. He was clearly the number 2 MVP candidate behind Derrick Rose. However he is a baby always acting like the league is out to get him.
I also can’t stand Stan Van Gundy anymore since he’s become a huge baby as well always bitching about how everybody’s how to get Dwight and himself. Stan Van has also become a god-awful coach. Nobody on the Magic other than Dwight Howard is able to play any kind of defense. That game when they roared back from like 20 down to beat Miami, I turned that shit off because it was horrible to watch. Orlando’s offensive strategy consisted of standing around and shooting threes, or have Dwight dunk it. I guess they got hot in the second half and came back to win, but it didn’t look like that would be the case early on.
Today Basketbawful even made fun of their offensive strategy saying it should be called “Dunk or a Three.” I didn’t know that had become their regular thing, I figured it was just something they were doing against the Heat that night. But after watching their series with Atlanta I’ve learned that is all they do. That is why they fail. Even the run ‘n gun Suns don’t just camp out and shoot threes all game. And the Magic weren’t even the top three point shooting team in the league, but that is still their strategy. What the fuck?
Van Gundy’s piss poor offensive strategy has driven me nuts for the last couple months, and the fact nobody on that team plays defense and Van Gundy doesn’t seem to make it priority and that only makes me crazier. Howard and Van Gundy have also turned into huge babies since they haven’t been able to get over the hump and win a championship, further annoying me. Howard is always getting technicals and costs his team, and Van Gundy complains about how the league just hates the Magic. All this bitching made me take great joy in watching them lose last night.
What made it even better was somebody’s sign in the Atlanta crowd that read something like, “Don’t worry Jameer, we’ll tell Derrick you said hello in the second round.” I thought that was just some fans talking shit because they were eliminating the Magic, but as it turns out there was a larger purpose. I was watching the game on NBA TV and I can’t remember if it was the NBA TV people or if it was the people in the local Atlanta feed the game was airing on, but they showed a clip of Jameer Nelson telling Derrick Rose, “Catch you in the second round” after the Bulls beat Orlando near the end of the regular season. Owned! When you talk that shit while finishing the season poorly you deserve to get eliminated in the first round.
Meanwhile the Blazers sadly lost to the Mavs, bringing the best series of the playoffs thus far to an end. I was hoping Dallas won that series initially, but after Brandon Roy suddenly came back like a force and all the Blazers played their asses off I had to change my stance. The Blazers worked real hard so I felt bad they had to go out like this. I felt even worse since I missed the Mavs come back. I was watching the game and the Blazers looked to be in control, then I fell asleep and found out this morning the Mavericks won and now move on to round two. Great now we can watch the Lakers run through them in five games.
The Lakers closed out the Hornets last night, with Ron Artest kissing the guns and everything. I fucking hate Kobe Bryant so as much as it pains me to root against a Phil Jackson coached team, I hope Dallas can suddenly become good enough to beat a real ass team in the playoffs and get Los Angeles out of there. I do hope Pau Gasol can, as Lil Jon would scream, step his game up since I’m a fan of his work. He played like mildly better Carlos Boozer in this last series it seemed, and that’s not what LA needs from him.
Meanwhile the Spurs/Grizzlies series continues tonight back in Memphis for Game 6. The Grizzlies could become just the second 8 seed to beat the 1 seed since the first round became seven games. The Spurs comeback to win in overtime in Game 5 was one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen in my life so I’m excited for this game. The winner of this series will become cannon fodder for the OKC Thunder in the next round, but I’m still excited to see if the Grizzlies can win this series or if the Spurs can complete the come back from being down 3-1.
Either way, our second round matchups are nearly all set. Out in the East we shall see:
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics
Then out West it shall be:
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Winner of Spurs/Grizzlies
(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks
For fear of jinxing Chicago I will not comment on that series. For fear of putting some kind of curse on the Heat/Celtics series, I will not comment on it other than saying that is going to be the series to watch. It has been hyped up since July of last year when LeBron said he was taking his talents to South Beach. It is going to be crazy.
Out West OKC will finish off Memphis in five or San Antonio in six. The Lakers will dispose of Dallas in five most likely. I hope that isn’t the case, but I’m sure Los Angeles will once again be in the conference finals. We will catch them in the third round.
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