UFC 129: Thoughts and What's Next?

UFC 129 was the other night and aside from a stinker of a main event between Georges St. Pierre and Jake Shields, was one of the best cards all the way through in a long, long time.  Lyoto Machida brutally finished Randy Couture's career with a crane kick to the jaw that sent teeth flying from the Natural's mouth.  Jose Aldo put a massive hematoma on Mark Hominick's skull and then survived a massive beatdown in the fifth round to keep his UFC Featherweight Title.  In the opening fight, Ben Henderson became my favorite fighter in the 155 lb division after his exciting decision win over Mark Bocek.  GSP put on a weak boxing exhibition and was actually outstruck by the flatfooted and awkward Jake Shields.  More on all this once we break down each fighter and what he should be up to next.

Ben Henderson: Bendo showed a lot of tenacity in overcoming Bocek's takedowns and responding with violent flurries of punches and knees.  Although he didn't get the finish, he certainly threw down a fast paced beating and showed he can hold his own with at least the middle of the pack at 155.  I would like to see him up against Jim Miller or the loser of Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard to see where he stacks up amongst the elite of the division.

Vladimir Matyushenko: Pardon the pun, but the Janitor mopped the floor with Jason Brilz, flooring him in about 20 seconds.  A solid middle of the pack light heavyweight and 40 years old, Vlad is in no way going to ever be close to a title shot.  A match with Stephan Bonnar would be a decent scrap between two men in roughly the same caliber and ranking.  If Zuffa wanted to get nostalgic, it could put him up against Tito Ortiz in a rematch of their title fight from UFC 33 or against Little Nog, who he KOed in 2006.

Randy Couture: Retirement, and a dentist.  Machida kicked out two of his teeth, one of which was on the opposite side of his face from where he was kicked.  Randy, despite getting beaten severly, should be commended for even accepting this fight.  Machida is one of the best in the world at 205 and is easily one of, if not THE, best fighter Randy has gone up against.  Other fighters have avoided Machida like the plague, but Randy stepped up and took the challenge.  Not the best finish to a career, but nothing to be ashamed of either.

Lyoto Machida: Machida put up one of the most vicious knockouts ever with his crane kick on Couture.  I think that Lyoto stands the best chance of challenging and defeating Jon Jones, but he is still at least one win away from a title shot.  His unorthodox striking and angles, as well as his underrated grappling and unrelenting patience could stymie Jones much more than Rashad Evans' or Rampage Jackson's styles.  I would put him up against the winner of UFC 133's Rashad Evans-Phil Davis match, with that person facing the victor of Jon Jones and Rampage Jackson (presuming Rampage beats Matt Hamill at the end of the month).

Jose Aldo, Jr: Dana White has already announced that Chad "Money" Mendes is the next challenger for the 145 lb title, so that one is set in stone.  Hopefully Jose will put on a better performance than he did in this fight, where he gassed early and showed some signs of ring rust, although this may have been part of a rumored illness he was suffering from.  The thing about this fight that baffled me was that Aldo went away from the leg kicks after devastating Hominick with them in the first round.  If he had continued to use them, I'm certain Aldo would have finished him by the third or fourth round.  Despite this, he probably still should have gotten a doctor stoppage for the basketball sized bruise he put on Hominick's head.  Hopefully in his next defense, he can show UFC fans why he is regarded so highly.

Jake Shields: Boxing lessons.  I forgot how painful it is to watch Jake Shields stand and strike.  His feet are flat, his back is rigid, and there is absolutely no power coming from his hands.  Absolutely dreadful.  He should have been destroyed by GSP, but St. Pierre suffered a minor eye injury and basically stopped fighting.  In two fights in the UFC, Shields has yet to show why his signing there was such a major coup for Dana White.  Putting him up against Jon Fitch would provide him a chance to show his grappling skills against one of the two other best wrestlers in the UFC.  It would also provide me a card to skip so I don't have to watch either man bore me to tears.  Seriously though, a match with Jon Fitch or maybe Diego Sanchez (once he is done with Matt Hughes) could work to his strengths.

Georges St. Pierre: Not since Anderson Silva decided to make a mockery of Damien Maia has a man lost so much in victory.  GSP put up a real stinker of a performance in this fight.  He apparently suffered an eye injury from an eye poke in the second round and basically coasted after that.  His stand up, which has always been at worst effective, was able to be evaded by the striking inept Shields.  Between rounds, GSP was panicking about his eye to the point that the fight just should have been stopped if it was that hard for him to do anything.  More than anything, this fight convinced me that Georges has no business moving up and challenging Anderson Silva, as Silva would annihilate the St. Pierre that showed up in this fight.  Silva preys on weakness and this was the weakest I have ever seen GSP.  This was about more than not finishing a fight.  This was about basically giving up and looking to merely survive against an opponent that couldn't have done anything even if Georges stuck his chin right out for Shields to blast.  If Anderson saw someone so weak, he would punt his head clean off his shoulders.  Anderson had broken ribs against Chael Sonnen and continued to go at it, culminating in a submission victory.  I don't know that GSP has that fortitude.  Since losing to Serra, Georges has seemed to lose that killer instinct that he possessed when he ran roughshod over the welterweight division.  He fights not to lose more than he does to win.  This has only been exacerbated by giving him inferior challengers that pose no real threat to him.  That is why he should fight the Strikeforce Welterweight Champ Nick Diaz.  Diaz is a tough hombre and he won't let GSP coast at any point in a fight.  Nick would bring out the best in GSP because he doesn't let up, has strong boxing, and can work off his back.  His intensity and taunting would force Georges to either fight to finish like he did against Matt Serra, or lose.  There's no way he could coast against Diaz.  Nick just doesn't roll like that.  At this point in his career, GSP needs that kind of opponent more than ever, a man who can truly bring out the best in him and can test his mettle.

I'll probably write more on this topic, plus Anderson Silva at some other point in time.  In the meantime, if you saw the show and have any thoughts on it, please share.

Joe's UFC 129 Predictions

UFC 129 goes down tonight in Ontario in front of a crowd of 55,000. UFC Welterweight Champion and Canadian Georges St. Pierre will be defending his title against Jake Shields, and UFC Hall of Famer Randy “The Natural” Couture will be fighting his final fight against former light heavyweight champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. I will not see the card tonight as I have prior engagements to attend, but I will be freaking out over that Couture fight all evening. Here are my predictions, aside from pain.

Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: I haven’t the slightest clue who Mark Bocek is, but Ben Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champion. He lost his title to Anthony Pettis in a really great fight highlighted by Pettis nailing Henderson with the “Showtime Kick.” I’ll go with Henderson by decision.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Matyushenko’s nickname is The Janitor. I’m a fan. I was not aware the Janitor fought after getting fucked up by Jon Jones until I read my brother’s predictions earlier. Brilz couldn’t even beat the washed up Rogerio Nogueira almost a year ago so I’m not looking forward to his performance. He’ll most likely have some serious ring rust issues, and not being able to beat the weak Lil Nog doesn’t make me hopeful. I sense the Janitor by second round TKO.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Couture is my hero. Here is a guy who is the second best of all time, surpassed only recently by Anderson Silva. Randy will turn 48 soon, so it is good he’s getting out of there since he can’t really take a punch at all anymore. Randy’s game plans have gotten him so many great victories over guys like Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. He knows how to cut off the octagon and trap his opponents and beat them down and bloody them up. But Lyoto Machida is the best fighter Randy has ever faced. The Dragon was undefeated up until a knockout victory to Shogun Rua last year, and then he lost a split decision to Rampage Jackson. Machida really should have won the Rampage fight, but that’s why you can’t leave it to the judges. Machida won’t leave this fight to the judges however. A few years ago Randy could’ve put up a big fight, but I’m not seeing that. Randy can’t take a punch, Machida is too fast and elusive, and Randy just doesn’t have it anymore. Machida wins by first round knockout.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: Aldo is friends with Anderson Silva. I’ve only seen highlights of Aldo’s work and that’s enough to know he’s violent. Hominick doesn’t stand a chance. Aldo by second round TKO.

UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: This is going to be a tough fight for GSP if Shields can go longer than a round or two, which after his fight against Martin Kampann I’m not so sure he can. Shields has great jiu jitsu and wrestling, but GSP hasn’t lost a round in years. I only care about this fight since if GSP wins there’s talk of a superfight with Anderson Silva. Other than that I have no desire to see another GSP fight in which he takes a guy down for five rounds and doesn’t finish them. I do think Shields could potentially pull off an Anderson Silva style submission in the later rounds. However, if and when Shields gasses out, I think GSP gets the TKO in the third round.

UFC 129 Predictions

Saturday, April 30th marks UFC 129. Coming live from Ontario, the event has sold a UFC-record 55,000 seats and features a stacked card, highlighted by the main event of UFC Welterweight Champ Georges St. Pierre against Jake Shields and Randy Couture taking on Lyoto Machida in what Couture is saying will be his final match. I’m pretty stoked for this card, as it has the potential to be one of the most memorable ones this year. Let’s get right to the predictions.

Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: This lightweight scrap pits the former WEC champ Henderson against the solid UFC vet Bocek. I don’t know too much about Bocek, but I like Bendo and if I had to guess, I would say this is going to be the Fight of the Night. Bocek is a submission expert, with seven of his nine wins coming that way, but Bendo has eight of his twelve wins the same way. I look for this to be an exciting, fast-paced bout and I’m going to go with Henderson by decision.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: The last time we saw Matyushenko, he was rebounding from a dominating loss to Jon Jones by knocking out some dude I’ve never heard of at UFC 122 last November. Brilz has not been seen since almost upsetting Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 114, when he replaced an injured Forrest Griffin on short notice. I do not expect this to be a very good fight, as they are both slower fighters with wrestling bases and that combination can be lethally boring. I would say Matyushenko is a better striker, has better finishing abilities, a better nickname (The Janitor, as opposed to The Hitman) and has fought better competition throughout his career, plus Brilz hasn’t fought in nearly a year. Brilz is not a good enough fighter to make up for such a lengthy layoff. I’m going to say that Matyushenko wins this one by decision.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: This is a fight I don’t think many people would have expected to happen two years ago. Back then, Randy was coming off being finished by Lesnar and was a few months away from losing to Big Nog. Machida was on the cusp of annihilating Rashad Evans and becoming the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Fast forward to now and Randy has peeled off three straight victories and Machida received a KO loss at the hands of Shogun Rua and a split decision loss to Rampage Jackson, the first two defeats in his career. This fight is now a must-win for Machida, as three straight losses would send him spiraling down in the division. For Randy, this fight is allegedly going to be his last one, and he certainly picked a great opponent to go out on. The key to this fight is going to be distance. If Machida can keep the distance, he should be able to pick away at Randy with his arsenal of karate kicks and punches. If Randy can close the distance and bully Machida up against the fence, he could win this. The thing is, Randy is considerably slower than Machida and the much faster Rashad Evans was unable to mount any kind of serious offense against Machida when they fought. Another interesting thing to look out for wil be Machida’s mindset. How is he going to react coming off two straight losses? Will he eschew his more cautious style and attempt to push the pace more? In the end, I see this being Machida’s fight. I wouldn’t be stunned if Randy pulls off a victory, as anything is possible with that dude. I see this going two ways: Machida picks him apart from the outside for a decision win, or knowing he needs to make a statement in a big way finishes Couture. I’m going with the second option and picking Machida by 2nd Round KO.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo, Jr. vs. Mark Hominick: Jose Aldo is a bad dude and this will be his first fight in the UFC, and first since knocking the hell out of Manny Gamburyan last September. Hominick is a veteran fighter coming off a first round knockout win against George Roop in January. I don’t know anything about Hominick other than that he trains with Shawn Tompkins and is supposed to be a pretty good striker, but I do know Aldo and that man is a killing machine. I worry about him though, since he is coming off of a neck injury suffered back in January. Despite that and claims of Hominick being a devastating puncher, I am going with Aldo. That man’s kicks are beastly and I think he will use them brutally and effectively. Aldo by 3rd Round TKO.

UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: The main event of the evening, and one of the toughest matches GSP has ever had to face, as Shields’ wrestling and jiu jitsu are on par with his. GSP has a marked advantage in striking however, as Shields’ standup is barely above rudimentary. The bigger story going into this fight has been whether or not GSP moves up to middleweight after this fight and takes on Anderson Silva. People, myself included, are severely overlooking Shields in this fight by doing that. If he can get Georges down and get top control, he could at the very least steal a round or two. His top game is smothering and he has the potential to get submissions anytime he is in control. I don’t know that he can get Georges down though. If he does, who knows how good GSP’s defense is from the bottom? I can’t even remember the last time that St. Pierre was in a position to defend himself off his back. The only thing I know is that Georges has not reacted the best when put in a disadvantageous situation, like in Hughes I and Serra I. Shields’ best chance to win is to get GSP down early and look for a submission. If he can’t get one by the second round, he isn’t going to win this fight. If Georges keeps the fight standing, through the early rounds he can wear Shields down on his way to a late finish or another decision win. I don’t think taking Shields down and trying the ground and pound is the best option early, as Shields’ ground defense is very good. The standup is the way to go. I think he picks Shields apart for three rounds with his superior and GSP finishes this by a 4th Round TKO from strikes.

If you get the chance to see this pay per view, by all means you should. Even the prelims are looking to be exciting, as Nate Diaz will be fighting on the Spike TV undercard. As always, thanks for reading and if you have predictions of your own please feel free to post them in the comments or on facebook or let me know and I’ll post them here on the blog.