UFC 129 Predictions

Saturday, April 30th marks UFC 129. Coming live from Ontario, the event has sold a UFC-record 55,000 seats and features a stacked card, highlighted by the main event of UFC Welterweight Champ Georges St. Pierre against Jake Shields and Randy Couture taking on Lyoto Machida in what Couture is saying will be his final match. I’m pretty stoked for this card, as it has the potential to be one of the most memorable ones this year. Let’s get right to the predictions.

Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: This lightweight scrap pits the former WEC champ Henderson against the solid UFC vet Bocek. I don’t know too much about Bocek, but I like Bendo and if I had to guess, I would say this is going to be the Fight of the Night. Bocek is a submission expert, with seven of his nine wins coming that way, but Bendo has eight of his twelve wins the same way. I look for this to be an exciting, fast-paced bout and I’m going to go with Henderson by decision.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: The last time we saw Matyushenko, he was rebounding from a dominating loss to Jon Jones by knocking out some dude I’ve never heard of at UFC 122 last November. Brilz has not been seen since almost upsetting Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 114, when he replaced an injured Forrest Griffin on short notice. I do not expect this to be a very good fight, as they are both slower fighters with wrestling bases and that combination can be lethally boring. I would say Matyushenko is a better striker, has better finishing abilities, a better nickname (The Janitor, as opposed to The Hitman) and has fought better competition throughout his career, plus Brilz hasn’t fought in nearly a year. Brilz is not a good enough fighter to make up for such a lengthy layoff. I’m going to say that Matyushenko wins this one by decision.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: This is a fight I don’t think many people would have expected to happen two years ago. Back then, Randy was coming off being finished by Lesnar and was a few months away from losing to Big Nog. Machida was on the cusp of annihilating Rashad Evans and becoming the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Fast forward to now and Randy has peeled off three straight victories and Machida received a KO loss at the hands of Shogun Rua and a split decision loss to Rampage Jackson, the first two defeats in his career. This fight is now a must-win for Machida, as three straight losses would send him spiraling down in the division. For Randy, this fight is allegedly going to be his last one, and he certainly picked a great opponent to go out on. The key to this fight is going to be distance. If Machida can keep the distance, he should be able to pick away at Randy with his arsenal of karate kicks and punches. If Randy can close the distance and bully Machida up against the fence, he could win this. The thing is, Randy is considerably slower than Machida and the much faster Rashad Evans was unable to mount any kind of serious offense against Machida when they fought. Another interesting thing to look out for wil be Machida’s mindset. How is he going to react coming off two straight losses? Will he eschew his more cautious style and attempt to push the pace more? In the end, I see this being Machida’s fight. I wouldn’t be stunned if Randy pulls off a victory, as anything is possible with that dude. I see this going two ways: Machida picks him apart from the outside for a decision win, or knowing he needs to make a statement in a big way finishes Couture. I’m going with the second option and picking Machida by 2nd Round KO.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo, Jr. vs. Mark Hominick: Jose Aldo is a bad dude and this will be his first fight in the UFC, and first since knocking the hell out of Manny Gamburyan last September. Hominick is a veteran fighter coming off a first round knockout win against George Roop in January. I don’t know anything about Hominick other than that he trains with Shawn Tompkins and is supposed to be a pretty good striker, but I do know Aldo and that man is a killing machine. I worry about him though, since he is coming off of a neck injury suffered back in January. Despite that and claims of Hominick being a devastating puncher, I am going with Aldo. That man’s kicks are beastly and I think he will use them brutally and effectively. Aldo by 3rd Round TKO.

UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: The main event of the evening, and one of the toughest matches GSP has ever had to face, as Shields’ wrestling and jiu jitsu are on par with his. GSP has a marked advantage in striking however, as Shields’ standup is barely above rudimentary. The bigger story going into this fight has been whether or not GSP moves up to middleweight after this fight and takes on Anderson Silva. People, myself included, are severely overlooking Shields in this fight by doing that. If he can get Georges down and get top control, he could at the very least steal a round or two. His top game is smothering and he has the potential to get submissions anytime he is in control. I don’t know that he can get Georges down though. If he does, who knows how good GSP’s defense is from the bottom? I can’t even remember the last time that St. Pierre was in a position to defend himself off his back. The only thing I know is that Georges has not reacted the best when put in a disadvantageous situation, like in Hughes I and Serra I. Shields’ best chance to win is to get GSP down early and look for a submission. If he can’t get one by the second round, he isn’t going to win this fight. If Georges keeps the fight standing, through the early rounds he can wear Shields down on his way to a late finish or another decision win. I don’t think taking Shields down and trying the ground and pound is the best option early, as Shields’ ground defense is very good. The standup is the way to go. I think he picks Shields apart for three rounds with his superior and GSP finishes this by a 4th Round TKO from strikes.

If you get the chance to see this pay per view, by all means you should. Even the prelims are looking to be exciting, as Nate Diaz will be fighting on the Spike TV undercard. As always, thanks for reading and if you have predictions of your own please feel free to post them in the comments or on facebook or let me know and I’ll post them here on the blog.