It is almost time for Playoffs baby!

With the NBA regular season in its final games, anybody with a soul is gearing up for what is sure to be one of the most awesome post-seasons in history. After all, the NBA has advertised this 2010-11 season as the best one yet, so it would only make sense the Playoffs would bring a greater deal of excitement than the other post-seasons in recent years. With so many powerhouse teams set to do battle, I for one am nearly shitting myself with excitement. I don’t have a clear focus with what I want to talk about here, I’m just going to list off some teams in each conference I feel will make for a good playoff story. Here we go.

The Eastern Conference – Normally we’d look at this as the Leastern Conference because the winner would likely fall prey to a more powerful force from the West, or Bestern Conference. That’s how has been the last two years, and for nine of the last twelve Finals. It doesn’t look that way now. The way the East is shaping up, it appears that the battle is going to come down to two. Much like the Ultimate Warrior and Hulk Hogan before them, the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics are clearly the top two. The battle will come down to them and them only. Let me elaborate.

• Chicago Bulls - Currently the top seed in the East, but there's still plenty of time left for that to change. The Bulls have stunned everybody, even some loyal fans, with how amazing they've been this year. Derrick Rose is likely going to win the MVP award, Tom Thibodeau is a top candidate for Coach of the Year, and the Bulls seem more and more likely to be the team representing the East in the NBA Finals. They have the best record against elite teams, they have become a monster defensive force, and the scariest piece of the puzzle is not that they have Derrick Rose but rather some legendary team chemistry and really believe they can win it all. They've had the second easiest schedule in the last stretch of the season, but at the start of the season it would've seemed likely a stretch like this would give the Bulls problems. They had a habit of playing down to a weaker team's level and losing. Now they're coming into every game with such force they're striking fear into other teams. There was the monster 40 point victory of the Kings followed by a 30 point domination of the Hawks the next night. Then the other night with the Bulls down 87-83 against the Bucks with three minutes left, Derrick Rose had two assists, two free throws, and three baskets to lead the Bulls to victory. This team is looking like a monster and poses a serious threat to teams like the Celtics or Lakers.


• Boston Celtics - While they may be in danger of dropping down to the 3 seed due to a recent slump, there's no reason for concern. This is the same team that looked like they were knocking on the door of a first round elimination to Dwyane Wade's Heat last year and they wound up playing in the Finals and nearly winning. Why? Defense. They lock people down. It doesn't matter where the game is or who it is against, the Celtics will beat you down and drain you in a series. This is of course if they are healthy. Aside from a finger injury to Rajon Rondo they appear to be much healthier than last year. They'll need Shaquille O'Neal or Jermaine O'Neal to actually play some games, but as long as they have healthy players then no team in the conference poses any kind of a threat except Chicago. They made some big changes at the trade deadline, but they are still the Boston Celtics. Pierce and Garnett are healthy, and that spells certain doom for almost every team. With Garnett anchoring the defense, Rondo being on the floor, Allen's shot falling, and Pierce healthy and able to come through in the clutch, the C's have a great chance of winning their second title in four years.


• Miami Heat - People can say all this crap about how nobody wants to play the Heat in a seven game series and talk about how they've done so well in the home stretch of the season, but don't buy into it. The Heat have the easiest schedule in the last part of the season and are doing what they've done all year, beast on bad teams. I'm not impressed with the Heat still dominating the lower level teams. They've done it time and time again. I want to know if they're going to have any answer for getting clowned by the defenses of Boston and Chicago. We've been through it a million times. The Heat have been a step behind the major teams all year and come Playoffs I'm not so sure that's going to change. I may be wrong, but I doubt it.


• Orlando Magic - Man will that city be heartbroken when Dwight Howard leaves soon because of suffering post-season elimination after post-season elimination.


• New York Knicks - They might not even make the Playoffs if these losing ways continue. Hah!

The Western Conference - Man is this conference going to be nuts. Seeds 1-5 are going to make for some interesting basketball, dear readers.

• San Antonio Spurs - Early on it looked as though the Spurs could become the second team in history to win 70 games. Before the All Star break they were the best team in the NBA and looked like the biggest threat in the West to stop the Lakers from making their fourth straight Finals appearance. After the All Star break it hasn't looked so amazing for the Spurs. They've lost three straight, injuries have taken Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, and losses to the Lakers and Heat have people wondering if the Spurs are as good as we all thought they were. I hope they are, but you never know. If Tim Duncan isn't healthy and ready to go come Playoffs, then the Spurs are dead meat. Same goes for if Manu Ginobili's thigh contusion leaves him out for any serious length of time. Even healthy the Spurs have to prove they can take out the Lakers. They match up well with the Mavericks, but LA still takes it to them.


• Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers have won 15 of 16 after the All Star break and look like they're going to run train come Playoffs and possibly win their third straight title. This isn't a surprise since this is a team coached by Phil Jackson and Phil can only win championships in threes. Kobe is starting to play much better than he did early on, Pau Gasol is still having another amazing year, and Andrew Bynum is seemingly playing better than he ever has. That's cause for concern for everybody in the West. The Lakers have been there, done that, and they look like they might just do it all again. People were counting them out early on, but they way they've been playing lately has shut up all of the doubters. Much like Phil Jackson's Bulls teams of the mid to late 90s, the Lakers let the league get their licks in early and now are running the gauntlet over everybody in the final stretch. If I didn't hate Kobe Bryant I'd be really excited that the Lakers are putting together such an epic stretch.


• Dallas Mavericks - While the Lakers and Spurs are the biggest stories in the West, the Mavericks have a great chance of making it to the Finals. They aren't quite overlooked, but they aren't really focused on enough. This is a team that seems much hungrier and much more talented than the team that made the Finals in 2006. Dirk is having another fantastic year, Shawn Marion is playing like it is 2006, Jason Terry is having a great year, Tyson Chandler is a monster force on the defensive end, and Jason Kidd continues to stun in the later stages of his career. The Mavericks have so much depth and have rebounded from losing Caron Butler in a big time way. They've got great rebounders and shooters and as I said before they have a way greater desire to win a championship than they ever have. Chandler's defense and rebounding will give that frontcourt of the Lakers a headache. The speed of Terry and JJ Barea give them an advantage over a lot of teams as well, and nobody in the conference has a point guard who can do as much as Jason Kidd. The Mavericks constantly collapse in the Playoffs so there's a lot of question marks around them, but if they can get it all together then they are a serious threat to win the West.


• Oklahoma City Thunder - Before the season started we had to hear about what a great young team this is. After picking up Kendrick Perkins they look like a huge spoiler team. Perk's defense and size will help them out so much as will the defense of Serge Ibaka, and having Thabo Sefolosha's defense on the wing is always dangerous. As we've heard all season, Westbrook and Durant are fantastic players and MVP candidates. The hype has been off the charts all year, and it will still be high come playoffs. They could make a pretty good run this year and are built to do some damage in the future too.


• Denver Nuggets - Trading Carmelo Anthony was the best thing they've done. They're in the 5th seed and look to stay there and have been playing the best basketball we've seen out of Denver in ages. They're not going to make a run for the title or anything, but they could be a big time spoiler team and make a push. The Nuggets are the team I'm most excited for in the West come Playoffs because while they aren't an elite team and don't have a superstar, they're playing so well they could cause a lot of problems for a lot of teams.

That's all I got. Man I hope the Knicks don't make the Playoffs.

Hate to say I told you so...

It's funny.  When the Knicks traded for Carmelo Anthony, ESPN (on tv, not internet to be fair) started to tout New York as a team that could make a lengthy playoff run.  Once the Knicks won a bunch of games immediately following the trade, you would have thought it was 1994 and Ewing and Starks were back.  Now, reality has set in and the Knicks have a losing record post-trade, and are below .500 for the first time since early in the season.

Carmelo is going to get a lot of the blame, but it isn't because he is playing poorly.  It is really the fault of the Knicks for going with the trend of signing "stars" without thought to how well multpile stars with similar games will fit together, or that there needs to be a clear pecking order in a team's structure and role players ready and able to chip in a timely basket or stop.

The other factor in this is that Mike D'Antoni's offense is based on needing certain players to perform certain tasks and play in specific spots on the floor.  Due to the trade, the Knicks can no longer play the "Seven Seconds or Less" (SSOL) offense that D'Antoni has championed.

In Phoenix and pre-trade New York, the offense was based on each player fitting a certain role.  There is the power forward/center that operates from about 15-20 feet out to all the way around the basket.  On both teams, that was Amar'e Stoudemire's role.  Then the other two front court spots are usually at least one person who stands out on the wings to shoot open threes and the other either does clean up rebounding or also hovers on the three-point line.  In Phoenix these roles have been done over the years by Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Quentin Richardson, and Boris Diaw.  The Knicks haven't been able to fill both of these slots well, but one of them would be filled by Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Then the shooting guard position is someone who can shoot open threes.  Phoenix has used Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, and now Vince Carter.  The Knicks use Landry Fields.  The final piece is the point guard that can hit from anywhere on the floor and dishes to everyone else on the floor.  For the Suns, that's been Steve Nash and for the Knicks it has been Ray Felton and Chauncey Billups.

The SSOL offense requires constant and fast ball movement and sound decision making, which is where the Knicks fall flat.  Carmelo holds the ball for awhile before making a decision.  Plus, he isn't really a perimeter player and fills the same space on the floor as Stoudemire.  This means that one of the two is always going to be out of the action.  Without Gallinari and Chandler, this closes the floor alot and makes it easier to stop STAT and Melo by just crowding the lane.

This is the main reason why the Knicks aren't scoring as much.  Melo slows down the pace of their offense considerably, plus their they are hitting fewer threes per game.  Their defense is still terrible, but it doesn't seem like they allow as many points because the pace of the game has slowed down considerably.  Billups is a good point guard, but he isn't the right one for the D'Antoni's system.  In Phoenix, Nash was the primary ballhandler and distributor.  In New York, the ball is staying in Carmelo or Stoudemire's hands for the bulk of each possession.

D'Antoni is taking a lot of heat for how the Knicks are playing, with pundits saying his system doesn't work.  The problem is that the personnel he was given doesn't match what he needs.  New York, like seemingly every team, is in love with the concept of having multiple superstars of equal or near equal stature and abilities.  This doesn't work unless someone is willing to become a secondary player for the team.  Miami is currently experiencing that because Wade and LeBron currently occupy the same spaces and like the ball in the same places at the same times.  Boston has had success because Pierce has been delineated as the primary scorer, Allen is willing to float off screens, and Garnett has harnessed his energy into the defensive end of the floor.  Chicago has a clear top dog with Rose, while Deng and Boozer are the supporting scorers.  The Lakers have Kobe as the alpha male, with Pau, Odom, and Bynum as the support.

New York doesn't even have the cast of Miami.  Chris Bosh fills the third fiddle role that New York doesn't have, plus LeBron and Wade (while similar players) are both considerably better and more complete than Stoudemire and Anthony.  And Knicks fans shouldn't get their hopes up for Chris Paul or Deron Williams either.  Paul will help more than Williams since D-Will scores more, but the issues of depth would still persist.  Although to be fair, depth issues and lack of steam at the end of season would be a D'Antoni trademark.

Derrick Rose is My Basketball Jesus

“I’m gonna have to apologize to the people; I don’t think I can really be objective.”

That was said by Bobby “The Brain” Heenan while doing commentary in the 1992 Royal Rumble and cheering for the wrestler he was managing, “The Nature Boy” Ric Flair. It is also the first thing I thought of when I realized every piece about the NBA I want to write is just about how Derrick Rose is the best player in the Association this year. Rose is my favorite player so I will always go nuts over everything he does, though I do feel I did a pretty good job of staying unbiased in the first post I had here on Black Belt Basketball. Rose’s major statistical improvements and the unexpected rise of the Chicago Bulls speak volumes for Rose’s MVP candidacy. As a student of the game I’m able to see that.

But as a Chicago Bulls fan, this has been the greatest season for the league in 13 years. I can’t help but start buying into the hype. The Bulls currently hold the top spot in the Eastern Conference and according to ESPN they have the best chance of winning the championship this year and being a dynasty in the future. I don’t want to jinx them so I won’t say they’re going to win it all, but as a fan this pumps me up to see other people saying it. And all of this is because of Derrick Rose.

When Rose came into the league people said he wasn’t clutch and couldn’t play defense. This year he’s shattered those misconceptions. Ask Chris Paul and Deron Williams if Rose can play defense. Following a loss to the Blazers, Portland’s Nicolas Batum said Rose can’t guard anybody. Chicago’s next game was against the Jazz, and Rose forced Williams into 38% shooting and 5 turnovers. It wasn’t done there. The next game was against the Hornets and Chris Paul was held to 3-10 shooting and only 6 assists. The top two point guards in the league decimated in back to back games. The on St. Patrick’s Day the Bulls played the Nets who now have Deron Williams. Williams is apparently nursing an injured wrist, but Rose still held him to 1-12 shooting and had a beast block on him in the fourth quarter. Then against Indiana last week the Pacers had a chance to win in the closing moments of the fourth but Rose blocked the shot. I don’t think Rose can guard people.

As for him being clutch, that isn’t even a debate anymore. Rose unloaded 19 fourth quarter points to send that game with Indiana to overtime. In the first game against Houston this year, Rose scored 17 points in the fourth to carry Chicago to victory. In the second meeting with Houston this year Rose hit that three to send the game to overtime then scored five of Chicago’s ten points in the OT period. Against the Phoenix Suns, D. Rose hit clutch shot after clutch shot and even scored more points than the entire Suns team in the second overtime. Rose also made big plays against the Lakers, and has been making big plays all year. Some people would say Rose is a killer now, but I like the way Brian Scalabrine put it:

"[Killers] are the guys who get you the need baskets. I have a different word for killers. I call them motherfuckers. And right now, Derrick Rose is the baddest motherfucker in the league by far. He is the reason we win."

Yes he is. He’s playing like an animal and I am so happy because of it. When the Bulls drafted him I was so happy. I don’t pay attention to college basketball so I had no real knowledge of what Rose had done previous, but to get the local boy with the first pick in the draft and excite the entire fan base was a big thing. I’ve followed every game of his career. I’ve seen every big game he’s had, from the 36 point explosion against the Celtics in Game 1 of the 2009 Playoff series all the way up to his 42 point onslaught against the league-best San Antonio Spurs this season. I was walking around the room with my arms in the air in triumph during the Bulls’ demolition of the Hawks last night in which Rose had 30 and 10 and hit six 3 pointers.

Every time Derrick Rose steps on the court I turn into a 10 year old. Every time he goes to the hoop and hits one of his unreal acrobatic layups I stand up pumping my fist. When he hits a three right over a defender I walk around the room with my fist in the air. When he dunks on somebody I get crazy eyes and just start yelling “Yeah!” When he hits a big shot in the fourth I get up and run around the room with my hand over my face screaming. I’m not embarrassed. It just goes to show that Derrick Rose is so good he can make a grown ass man act like a bitch.

This of course would probably lead you to ask why in the blue hell I get like this over Derrick Rose. Rose embodies everything I’d want to see in a player in my favorite sport. The best thing about him is the fact he’s so humble. He could easily brag about the damage he’s doing to teams this year, but instead he gets very shy if you tell him he’s been the best in the league this far. After beating Miami for the third time, Rose was interviewed after the game and rather than celebrate having a good game and winning he freaked out about how he nearly cost his team the game with two turnovers and missing a jumper. He felt terrible that he nearly ruined the game for his teammates. When the reporter interviewing him tried to get him to talk a little trash about Miami’s big three and say something about the great season he’s been having, Rose just shook his head and smiled and said it was all about the team’s success and it doesn’t matter what he does on his own.

That’s pretty big for a superstar to do. When Boston beat the Lakers in the 2008 Finals, I remember Kobe saying the loss hurts because it had been such a big year for him. LeBron James constantly talks about himself like he’s a global icon. Derrick Rose has been playing better than both of them all season but doesn’t want to hear about how good he’s been, he just wants you to talk about what a great team the Bulls have been. Saying he wanted to be MVP before the season started was the only time Rose has ever gotten cocky. Other than that he’s always respectful and reserved. I love it.

The other thing that makes Rose so great is that killer instinct he has. Over the summer he contacted both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James about coming to Chicago. He contacted Wade a few times, but Wade blew him off. Then when the big three decided to form in Miami, Rose hit the gym and went nuts. He developed a three point shot, his free throw shooting has gone way up, his defense is way better, and he’s approached the season with a determination nobody knew he had. All the effort he’s put into this year started because of the free agency period in which the Bulls management wanted him to court James and Wade. Rose knew he could lead the Bulls on his own and when LBJ and Wade went to South Beach he set out to prove to everybody he can. That’s the type of drive that brings to memory a certain guard who also played for the Bulls.

Rose also preaches Tom Thibodeau’s message constantly and has helped Thibs transform the culture of the Bulls this year. He doesn’t call Thibs out and make it seem like his coach is the issue if the Bulls lose a game. He doesn’t slam into Thibs on the sideline if he’s mad about his decisions like some stars. He trusts what Thibodeau brings to the table and he believes in him. That faith and loyalty to a coach is something you’d expect out of a truly dedicated star, but because of the bond Rose and his coach have developed it has the Bulls playing at a level nobody except the most serious of Bulls fans would have believed.

Derrick Rose is such a special player. When he proclaimed he could win the MVP award deep down I wished it would happen, but on my other blog I still said Kevin Durant would be the one who wins it because I hadn’t seen exactly how much Rose had improved in just a few months. On my other blog I had said the Bulls would be the 4 seed in the East, but in conversations before the season started with my brother and my friend Josh, both Bulls fans, I said I believed they had the parts to contend right away because Rose was going to be that good. It was just the extremely biased Bulls fan in me saying what I really wanted to happen this year. But now it is happening. I’m stunned.

I texted Josh earlier saying Derrick Rose is the second coming of either Jesus or Michael Jordan. Josh responded that Rose has taken the best parts of both of them and combined them into one superhuman. He may be right. After the Bulls beat the Hornets in that game I mentioned earlier, Carlos Boozer said of Rose, “He’s a monster, man. And I keep telling people, when it’s all said and done—he’s 22—he’s going to be the best one.” I don’t know about him being better than MJ, but we’re witnessing a special player this year. He’s so humble and so driven and has his team playing at an unbelievable level. I’m so happy I’ve been supporting him from the moment the Bulls drafted him.

I’ve never cheered for an athlete the way I’ve been cheering for D. Rose (I don’t know if I could give almost three pages to Steve Nash), and I’ve never pulled for a team the way I’m pulling for the Bulls. I’m so pumped for the next 12 games and the Playoffs, as well as the many years of success the Bulls likely have in store. Knock on wood.

UFC 128: Thoughts, Observations, and Where Do We Go From Here?

UFC 128 is in the books and now there's a new Light Heavyweight Champion, and his name is Jon Jones.  My prediction of a Shogun submission was misguided, although I did say a 2nd or 3rd round Jones win by TKO was very possible.  It turned out to be a 3rd round TKO for Jonny Bones, in a fight that could only be characterized as lopsided.

Jones annihilated Shogun in a way that no one ever has.  From the onset until the end, Jones was all over him.  Shogun's face was a swollen, bloody mess and his body was littered with welts from an onslaught of body shots and knees.  According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Shogun 102 to 11.  Jones effectively used his range and takedowns and went through the fight unscathed while landing everything he wanted to at will.  If he continues to improve at the rate he has from fight to fight, he could end up being the most terrifying specimen in MMA history.

Other Thoughts:

• What was the deal with the fans chanting "USA" during the main event?  They didn't chant it during the Cro Cop-Schaub fight or the Miller-Shalorus one, and that featured a Jersey native against an Iranian.  To chant that during the main event was disrespectful to Shogun, a true legend in the sport, and moronic.  This isn't the World Cup.  It isn't about country vs. country.  It's just a fight.
• I thought the Greg Jackson fighters on the card tonight, except Nate Marquardt, fought dirty.  Brendan Schaub was deducted a point for punches to the back of the head, something he did throughout the fight.  Jones got away with a lot of illegal choking via forearm and the rape choke during his fight.  He also headbutted Shogun in the midsection, which I'm pretty sure is illegal as well.  Herb Dean was the referee in both matches, and he is usually on the money, but I thought he really dropped the ball with that.  Especially in the Jones fight, as Jones was dominating even without having to resort to choking.  Speaking of Jones, his push kicks to Shogun's surgically repaired knee, while legal, were a bit cheap.  He already had a speed, strength, and size advanage and didn't need to resort to that.  I don't like it when Anderson Silva does that either.  It can cripple an opponent and to do it to someone coming off of knee surgery is double uncool.
• I mentioned Brendan Schaub a few sentences ago, and I must say that he was lucky.  He did nothing for two and a half rounds except for rabbit punches, wall and stall, and lay and pray.  He was gassed and Mirko seemed to have risen from the grave in the third round and was really taking it to him.  It looked like Cro Cop was going to salvage a draw or even a victory, before a lucky shot crumpled him.  Upon multiple viewings, I thought that the punch was to the back of the head.  When Joe Rogan said that Schaub was scary because he has wins over two legends, Gabe Gonzaga and Cro Cop, I had to laugh.  Gonzaga is no legend, and he struggled mightily against a Cro Cop that hasn't been considered truly dangerous since Gonzaga of all people knocked him out in 2007.
• The brothers Miller crying in the locker room was a touching scene.  Evidently, it would have been the second birthday of Dan Miller's deceased son.  Combined with Dan's tough (but clear cut) decision loss and Jim's knockout victory, the emotions were running wild in their locker room.  Words can't really do it justice.
• With the knockouts of both Cro Cop and Shogun, Pride was pretty much buried for good.  Cro Cop has been finished for awhile, but Shogun has never been handled in that fashion.  It seems like there are only two guys who achieved a great deal of success in Pride that are relevant still: Quinton Jackson and Dan Henderson.  Over the next few weeks, I'm going to try to write a series of articles on Pride and its legacy in MMA, including the death of the Pride superstars.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Jon Jones: A battle against former training partner Rashad Evans has been confirmed, one in which I would expect the undersized Evans to be manhandled by Jones.  Evans usually succeeds due to better wrestling and a speed advantage, neither of which he will have in this fight.  I think Lyoto Machida, if he can get himself back into title contention, would be the biggest challenge to Jones.  Jones exposed his back and legs a few times to Shogun, who was too beat up to really capitalize.  Machida is a much better grappler than Rua and more willing to let Jones come to him, rather than try and fail to get in on Jones' monster reach advantage.  People are clamoring for Anderson Silva to move up and face Jones, which would be an exciting fight and, as a fan of Silva's, a terrifying one.  Silva has enough reach and is lanky enough that he could succeed in attaining the head and arm triangles that the shorter Rua could not get.  Silva's biggest weakness is wrestling and Jones is one of the best in the sport at it.  And unlike Chael Sonnen, Jones can finish his oponents.  It would be the first time Silva would be at such a massive disadvantage in size and reach.  If they were to fight, it needs to happen before the year ends, otherwise Anderson will be far too old for a youngster like Jonny Bones.
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua: Maybe a rematch with Forrest Griffin, or Rampage Jackson if he somehow loses to Matt Hamill.  Randy Couture would be an option as well.  I think a lot of Shogun's future hinges on that of his knees.  Was he slow and sluggish because Jones made him look that way, or was it because his layoff and knee surgery made him a lot slower.  His next fight should go a long ways in figuring that out.  A move to middleweight has been floated around, but I think that should only be considered if he loses his next fight at 205 lbs.  The Jones fight is the only one really in his entire career where he has been dominated.  On the other hand, I would say the odds of him ever beating Jones would be nil, so a move to 185 may be better long term.
Urijah Faber: Either a title match with Dominick Cruz or a fight with longtime 135 fan favorite Miguel Torres.  That fight seems less exciting now that Torres has decided to fight a much safer style, but it would still be a big one for fans of the lower weight classes.  The title match makes the most sense because Faber was the biggest draw in the WEC and putting him in the title picture will help put more interest in that weight class and in champion Cruz.
Jim Miller: A title eliminator, maybe with Melvin Guillard.  Miller has the longest winning streak in the lightweight division and has been taking care of business in exciting fashion.  I think that after the Pettis-Guida fight determines the next contender, Miller-Guillard should be the next contender.
Nate Marquardt: Who knows?  Marquardt is one step above gatekeeper status, but one step below top contender.  He just lost to Okami and Sonnen in the past thirteen months, so maybe Michael Bisping or Vitor Belfort would be the best bet for him.  A winner between Bisping and Marquardt could be the next contender for the MW title after Okami, or potentially GSP if he moves up in weight.
Brendan Schaub: A class in not punching the back of the head?  I'm not impressed by Schaub, although he has decent size and power.  He is still a prospect at this point.  He has no business with the big boys in the division, as they would lay him to waste.  I guess Stefan Struve would be a good next step, with the winner of that one fighting the winner of Frank Mir-Roy Nelson.  It's more likely he'll go right to the winner of Mir-Nelson.
Mirko Cro Cop: According to Dana White, retirement from the UFC.  It's fair, as he has not been very good in his stints inside the octagon, but he looked better than he has in some time in this fight.  He was active, moving, and actually looked motivated.  Besides, how many chances did Chuck Liddell get after a first round KO loss?  At least Mirko's last two losses have come in the third round, and this one after multiple hits to the back of the head.  I think he should at least get a retirement match against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, as neither of them really have much business fighting anymore and it would be cool as a fanboy to see those two go at it again.

That's it for now.  There's a Fight Night this weekend, so hopefully I'll figure out a way to access those fights and comment on them.

A Rant on Ring Rust

After Jon “Bones” Jones dismantled Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday to become the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in history, people have been writing stories about how this is the dawn of the Jones Era and how Bones will go down as an all time great. Of course there was one piece which pointed out that while Jones put on an impressive show, he did break some rules on his way to victory. But while people can rave about the amazing wrestling and striking abilities of Bones Jones or acknowledge that he cheaply resorted to elbowing Shogun in the throat and gouging at his face and head butting him, the one thing nobody seems to really be touching on is ring rust. Long layoffs have a huge effect on a fighter’s performance and have had an effect on at least three main event fights that come to mind immediately.

Shogun was in danger the moment Rashad Evans had to drop out of the title fight and was replaced with the much larger Jon Jones. Bones had a huge size advantage in the fight, so much so that even Joe Rogan commented that it seemed like Shogun wasn’t even in the same weight class. But regardless of his opponent, going into the fight Shogun had a massive challenge in front of him since he hadn’t fought since May 8, 2010.

Ten months off in the world of mixed martial arts is almost like a life time. The concerns of Shogun being too rusty weren’t that high initially since he was going to be fighting Rashad Evans, who hasn’t fought since May 29, 2010. It would be two guys not quite at their peak but still seemingly even matched, aside from the fact Shogun doesn’t do well against wrestlers and was coming back from knee surgery. But once Rashad got hurt and Bones Jones stepped in, there should have been red flags everywhere. Not only was Shogun going to be going against an opponent who looked like a giant next to him and had strengths that played into his weaknesses, but he’d be fighting a fresh and young fighter who could expose just how slow and sluggish almost a year off really makes you.

Shogun being slow following a knee surgery isn’t surprising since that’s how almost his entire UFC run has been aside from his five round war with Lyoto Machida and his lightning fast knockout of Machida in the rematch. But against Jones it didn’t appear Shogun was all that comfortable the moment the fight started. He was also completely gassed within the first few minutes. This could’ve been because Jones was smothering him with a brutal ground game, but the time off really does a lot to throw off your timing and cardio. Shogun’s gas tank was completely empty by the end of the first round, and for a guy who went five rounds with the most elusive striker in the division it seems likely that being on the sidelines for so long took a lot out of him. Rashad is already on death watch since he’s the next challenger to the title and Bones will demolish him, but having been off since May of last year is going to make his struggles even tougher.

Look at Rashad’s last fight for a classic example of what ring rust does to a fighter. Rashad faced off against Rampage Jackson in what was to be the biggest grudge match in UFC history. Rampage hadn’t fought since March of 2009. People didn’t focus on the ring rust factor since they were so pumped for the fight to finally happen, but when the fight stared it was very clear that Rampage had not been in the octagon in over a year. He spent nearly the entire fight gassed and unable to do anything other than get held against the cage. In the third round he finally rocked Rashad and it looked like he was about to finish the fight, only he got tired.

A few months later when Rampage fought Lyoto Machida he looked like a completely different fighter. His striking looked crisper, his movement was much better, and grappling didn’t leave him completely tired out like it did against Evans. If Rampage had fought like that against Rashad, that would’ve completely changed the title picture in the 205 division. Rampage would’ve been the number one contender, and when Shogun went down he probably would’ve had an interim title fight with Machida. But that year layoff led to a severe case of ring rust which changed the entire championship scene.

A few months before Rashad and Rampage fought, Tito Ortiz made his return to the UFC and had a rematch with Forrest Griffin. This was in November of 2009. Tito’s last fight before that had been in May of 2008. Tito looked fine as the fight against Forrest started, but by the end he had nothing going for him. His takedowns had no explosiveness on them, his striking was becoming lethargic, and he just looked largely unimpressive. Well over a year off will do that to you.

One fight that should’ve raised a lot of concern for the potential dangers of ring rust was Anderson Silva’s title defense against Vitor Befort last month. Belfort had last fought when he had returned to the UFC in September of 2009 and beat Rich Franklin. Again, his fight with Silva was last month, meaning February of 2011. Of course the greater concern was the sheer fact Belfort was fighting the greatest of all time and the deadliest striker in the history of the sport in a fight where Silva was coming in to send a message that he is unstoppable. Had Silva not destroyed Belfort with the greatest kick in history, Belfort’s performance later in the fight could have been subject to a great deal of ring rust since he hadn’t fought in about 17 months. People who wanted to see Silva lose so badly were ignoring the fact that it had been over 500 days since Belfort’s last fight. Though it seems doubtful you can make a case that ring rust cost Belfort since regardless of when his last fight was it is highly unlikely he could’ve defended that kick.

Again this isn’t to say that Jon Jones could not have beaten Shogun Rua if it wasn’t for that ten month layoff. Jones had such a size advantage and so much speed, Shogun was in serious danger no matter the condition of his knee or when his last fight had been. Shogun’s struggles with wrestling also would’ve been there regardless of how many months he had been off. But if he hadn’t been off for 10 months, it is hard to believe Shogun looking so drained and sluggish still. The outcome of the fight likely would’ve been the same, but it would’ve been much more competitive. There isn’t really anything the UFC can do to stop ring rust, but it is something more people need to take notice of when analyzing a fight.

Jon Jones: Too Much Too Soon...Or, Shogun's Last Stand?

This Saturday’s UFC Light Heavyweight Championship match between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Jon “Bones” Jones has a ton of interesting subplots and storylines heading into the fight and beyond it, really. I touched on a lot of them in my prediction post, but I want to use this space to delve further into them. I’ll try to break them up by topic to make everything easier to follow.

Is Jon Jones the future?
As stated by pretty much everyone, Jon Jones has the combination of skill, athleticism, youth, and charisma to be the future of the sport. At only 23 and in his eighth fight in the UFC, he finds himself gunning for a championship. Jones has so much hype surrounding him right now, that the Wall Street Journal just featured an article on him where he is being touted as the “transcendent star” the UFC has been looking for. On Thursday night, Spike TV is airing a 30-minute special on his meteoric rise from JUCO wrestling champion to top contender. His offense is unorthodox, constantly evolving, and heretofore unstoppable and; his preparations for opponents are intense; his 6’5 frame and 85” reach make him difficult to hit or control physically; and he comes across as clean-cut, intelligent, and articulate. These factors all make him someone who is easy to promote as the image of the sport. So to answer the above question, barring any unforeseen events, yes.

Does Jon Jones buy into his own hype? Will all the hype distract him?
A little bit, for the first part. He has been stating for the past six weeks that in his mind the fight is over and he has been the champion for some time. His confidence in his abilities in comparison to Shogun’s skills has come across as a bit irrational at best, and arrogant at worst. When combined with the media attention and betting lines that have him set as the favorite, it seems like Jones has bought into that hype quite a bit. He has been engaged in a bit of a tiff with fellow Greg Jackson trained fighter Rashad Evans after Jones said he would be willing to defend the title against him. Evans has responded to this poorly, with both parties forgetting that Jones has to beat Shogun first before any Evans/Jones title fight can occur. That being said, I think that Jones may be a bit distracted by being anointed the Chosen One, although a victory on Saturday would dispel me of that opinion pretty easily.

Why is Jones the favorite?
Jones is the favorite by a decent margin, but it isn’t surprising. Shogun has missed nearly a year of action due to knee surgery, his third major knee surgery over the past five years. On top of that, he has struggled against wrestlers and takedown defense is the weakest part of his game. Jones’ top game is smothering and his takedowns are damn nigh unstoppable. He will have a significant size advantage going into this fight, in theory making it difficult for Shogun to close the distance on him in the standup. His cardio should also be better than Shogun’s, as Rua has shown a tendency to gas against strong wrestlers. If anything, this is a much tougher fight for Shogun than the originally slated bout with Rashad Evans.

Is Shogun Rua being overlooked?
Oh, most definitely. If his knees are healthy, Shogun Rua is extremely dangerous. While Jones is being touted as the future, Shogun once had that expectation and right now at age 29 should be in the prime of his career. The last time Shogun was considered an underdog was against Lyoto Machida, and that did not work out well for Machida. People have forgotten that prior to his knee surgeries and 2007 loss to Forrest Griffin, Rua was the top ranked light heavyweight in the world, a position he currently holds. This is an extremely difficult fight for Jon Jones, so any discussion of Jones as the best should be stopped until the smoke clears Saturday night.

How much does Shogun’s experience help?
It helps a great deal. Rua has more than an idea of what it is like to be 23 and hyped. When Shogun was that age, he won the 2005 Pride Grand Prix. During that five month span, he gave Rampage Jackson the beating of a lifetime, beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in what I believe to be the greatest fight of all-time, mauled Alistair Overeem, and destroyed Ricardo Arona. His bouts with Lyoto Machida were the first time anyone ever really even hit Machida, much less knocked him out. Over the same period in his career, Jones has finished Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader. None of these men are slouches, but none are of the quality of fighters Shogun faced. Jones has never really been in a competitive fight before, so this is a big test for him.

If Jones is such a juggernaut, why and how could Rua win?Well, for starters Shogun has faced larger opponents before and won. Alistair Overeem is similar in height and build, and Rua finished him twice. He has beaten strong wrestlers in Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman. He has beaten unorthodox fighters like Machida. The hard part for Shogun is that Jones is all of these things rolled into one. Jones on the other hand, has really only fought wrestlers. He has never faced anyone with muay thai and jiu jitsu abilities before, much less someone of Rua’s caliber in those fields. Shogun holds a decisive advantage in finishing ability standing up and could conceivably knock out Jones, although it will not be easy for him to get inside enough to do so while managing to avoid Jones’ barrage of strikes and takedowns. I think his best and most likely chance to win comes via submission. It is inevitable that Jones will get him to the ground to uncork his ridiculous arsenal of elbows. Where Jones is weak, and what no analyst points out, is his posture. He is content to rain down strikes from open guard, but when he does so and when he postures up, he leaves his upper body and lanky arms dangling out there. Hamill, Vera, Matyushenko, and Bader are not submission experts and could not take advantage of this one glimmer of hope. Shogun is savvy and talented enough to do so, and I believe he will.


If your prediction is wrong, would you be surprised?
No, the only thing that would surprise me would be if it goes to decision. This is very much a “pick ‘em” fight. Jones has the look of someone who could dominate for a long time to come, but this is a lot of pressure and a tough battle for someone so young. Shogun is a legend in the sport, but he is going up against someone who is extremely talented and improving with each fight. Each man is capable of finishing the other one in spectacular fashion. It’s why I’m so excited about this fight and why every MMA fan should be too. Saturday night could usher in a new era with a Jones win, or Shogun Rua could set himself up as a dominant champion in a division lacking one since Chuck Liddell lost the belt five years ago. I can’t wait!

NBA: Three Up, Three in the Middle, Three Down

This is a new feature that I'm going to try to update weekly during the NBA season, and I'll try to tweak it for the Playoffs and maybe for MMA cards to show who's on the rise, treading water, and slumping.  I would like to note that this was written yesterday, before the Heat got beat by the Thunder, the Celtics showed some signs of life again, and the Mavericks beat the Warriors.

Three Up
Chicago Bulls: Winners of nine of their past ten, the Bulls have surged into first in the Eastern Conference for the first time since the Jordan Era.  Notable in that span are two wins over the Heat and wins over Atlanta, Orlando, and New Orleans.  ESPN has them currently rated as the team most likely to win the NBA title and are number one in ESPN's future power rankings, measuring who should be the best over the next three years.  Derrick Rose is the leading candidate for MVP and Tom Thibodeau is amongst the leading candidates for Coach of the Year.  All in all, not a bad time to be a Bulls fan.
Denver Nuggets: Denver is surging post-Carmelo Anthony with a 9-2 record after the trade, which is quite a bit better than the Knicks' mark during that span.  George Karl has the team playing an exciting brand of basketball and it is obvious that a weight has been lifted off the team's shoulders.  They actually look like they enjoy playing basketball again.  They are currently a five seed in the West, and could potentially play spoiler to the Thunder in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers: Also winners of nine of the past ten, the Lakers are finally starting to round into playoff form.  Following the close loss to Miami, they beat the Mavericks and Magic, and prior to the Heat game they thrashed the Spurs.  Of the top four seeds out West they are probably the most dangerous, although they should hope they don't have to play the Grizzlies, TrailBlazers, or Nuggets in the first round as they struggle against them.

Three in the Middle
Boston Celtics: It seems that Boston is content to let everybody heal up before the postseason, hence the struggle over the past five or six games.  They obliterated the Bucks over the weekend, but those losses to the Clippers and Nets are brutal and losing to potential first round opponent Philadelphia hurts.  The 76ers have matched up well with Boston all season and would make it a tough series for the Celtics.  That being said, Boston still holds tiebreakers over Chicago and Miami and they don't really care about beating a team on the road, so seeding for the playoffs isn't that important.  What is important is that Rondo has been playing poorly and when he doesn't go, neither do the Celtics.
Miami Heat: Recovered from that losing skid to beat the Lakers in a close game, then blow out the Grizzlies and Spurs by thirty each.  I still don't think they can beat Boston or Chicago in a seven game series due to their lack of cohesiveness and effectiveness in the halfcourt game.  Wade and LeBron still don't really know how to play together unless it's on the fast break.  With a few tweaks and a healthy Haslem, the Heat could still make some noise in the playoffs.
Philadelphia 76ers: Beat Boston last week and played the Thunder close, but lost to Utah and got thrashed by the Bucks.  Still, they have recovered from a poor start and are now above .500 and have the second best record in the East since the All-Star break behind Chicago.  They have the potential to make the first round of the playoffs very interesting.  Doug Collins has done a great job coaching a young team that has no one scoring more than 17 a game.

Three Down
San Antonio Spurs:  Have bookend blowout losses to the Lakers and Heat, with wins over bad teams in the middle.  They should finish with homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, but their play against good teams has been troubling as of late.  Their defense has been sub-par this season and it has shown against the better teams.  They need a win over Dallas at the end of the month to reassert themselves as the favorite in the Western Conference.
New York Knicks: After the excitement of trading for Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks have gone 6-6.  Knicks fans are shocked to see that 'Melo doesn't play defense or pass the ball very much/well.  They also can't defend.  Anyone.  At all.  It doesn't matter how great a clutch shooter 'Melo is if you can't stop anyone in a close game.  The two straight losses to the Pacers put them in the seventh seed, where they would have a difficult time competing against the Celtics.  If the Knicks want to make any noise, they need to get to the sixth seed and a more favorable matchup with the Heat.
Dallas Mavericks: Their losses to the Lakers and potential first round opponent Portland have dropped the Mavericks into the third seed out West.  They could still conceivably win the conference, but they could also conceivably lose to the TrailBlazers in the first round.  The seventh seed Hornets are a much easier matchup.  They play the Hornets and the Spurs before the month is out and wins there would help their caue a great deal.

That's it for this week's installment.  Feel free to comment if you agree, disagree, or think I missed something.

Joe's UFC 128 Predictions (That I'm pretty sure are the exact same as my brother's)

UFC 128 goes down this Saturday. My brother posted his picks for the fights earlier today. My picks are basically the exact same except for the finishes. Oh well. I feel a little cocky about picking finishes since I told my brother on the phone days before and in the hours leading up to Anderson Silva's legendary push kick victory of Vitor Belfort that Silva would win within the first three minutes. It took just over three minutes. Hell yeah.

I had been writing my predictions for the UFC 128 main event in my head a little while ago and just read Jimmy's picks and saw he said the same shit I was going to say about Shogun Rua almost. Great minds think alike I guess. Either way, UFC 128 has a monster main event of light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua against Jon "Bones" Jones. They could just chared 45 bucks for that fight and nothing else and I'd be pumped, but there are sadly other fights that must be witnessed. This card is noteworthy because for the first time what I feel like has been a long time I have little knowledge of most of the people involved. I feel like an amateur now. Whatever. Here are the picks:

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (27-8-2) vs. Brendan Schaub (7-1): Mirko Cro Cop used to be death. Pre-UFC Mirko laid all to waste. Every time I hear "Bloodline" by Slayer all I can picture is Mirko kicking people in the head and ending them. Cro Cop always used to say, "Right leg, hospital; left leg; cemetery." Sadly now he's been reduced to a mere mortal doomed to suffer embarassing losses and ruin his legacy, like when Junior Dos Santos kept punching Mirko in the face and Cro Cop quit because he couldn't see. Mirko's fight with Pat Barry was fun but not all that impressive. As my brother stated earlier, Schaub is the type of fighter who would be a dead man walking if he were fighting Cro Cop back in Pride. But instead Schaub looks like he's going to build a name for himself. The only thing I know about Schaub is he got laid out by Roy Nelson in the Ultimate Fighter finale. He's decent but you know something is wrong with the world when he poses a serious threat to the once unstoppable Mirko Cro Cop. I'm calling Schaub by third round knockout.

Dan Miller (13-4) vs. Nate "The Great" Marquardt (30-10-2): I have no idea who Dan Miller is really. Looking at his fights, I've seen him a few times but I don't remember him at all. I do know Nate Marquardt and I know I am not a fan. I was initially excited for this fight because it was to be Marquardt against Yoshihiro Akiyama (or Sexyama as he's known in some circles). I'm a fan of Sexyama and was hoping to see him take out Nate the Great. Instead I'm gonig to watch as Marquardt wins by boring decision.

Jim Miller (19-2) vs. Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2): Much like his brother Dan, I've seen Jim Miller fight a few times and still have no idea who he is. I also have no clue who Kamal Shalorus is. Two guys I've never heard of, fighting right before the co-main event. Needless to say I'm pumped for this fight and can't wait to see a victory for Kamal Shalorus by first round TKO.

Co-Main Event - Urijah Faber (24-4) vs. Eddie Wineland (18-6-1): I'm very excited for this fight since it will be my first time seeing Urijah Faber, the California Kid, going to work. People are saying this move down to 135 is a great move for him. He is a former champ at 145 and is looking to contend at 135 should he win on Saturday. I've never heard of Eddie Wineland. I don't expect him to win. I'm feeling Faber by third round submission.

Main Event - UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (19-4) vs. Jon "Bones" Jones (12-1): I am so excited for this. On one hand you have the most handsome man in all of MMA, Shogun Rua. I'm not even gay and I have a crush on this guy. He is handsome. The man used to be a model before he fought. He's the man. On the other hand you have Jon "Bones" Jones. The man the UFC is clearly hyping as the future of the sport. Jones is young (23), athletic, charismatic, big (6'5" with a UFC record 85" reach and walks around at 220 according to the research I did, otherwise known as reading my brother's picks) and has dismantled everybody he's fought. His only loss came when he devestated Matt Hamill with elbows that were illegal, but he was still crushing Hamill in that fight. Jones has brutal ground and pound. He's the fastest rising star in the business and guaranteed to go down as one of the all time greats. The only problem is he's yet to be truly tested. Jones has looked like a devestating striker and wrestler, but he's been fighting competition that isn't that great. He beat Stephan Bonnar and a man nicknamed The Janitor. Shogun has problems against wrestlers and is coming off a third knee surgery, but we can't forget who we're talking about here.

When the UFC brought Shogun in, he was hyped as the best light heavyweight in the world. Nagging knee injuries kept him from looking like the super killer, but after sealing Chuck Liddell's career up he was given a title shot against Lyoto Machida who was undefeated and is the most elusive fighter in the division. Machida won maybe the most controversial decision in the history of life as Shogun dominated him and picked him apart for five rounds. Rua looked the like the Shogun the UFC had been promising for so long. Then in the rematch he absolutely demolished Machida in the first round. Shogun's striking is legendary. Bones Jones has never faced somebody with such deadly strikes. Shogun is also only 28, which means in theory he's entering his athletic prime. Assuming he's fine after that knee surgery, a healthy Shogun means a deadly Shogun. I guess Shogun has jiu jitsu, and with Bones Jones throwing those elbows like a mad man on the ground that leaves him open to get put in something, but I don't see the fight going that way. People can climb on the Bones Jones train and I know there's a very good chance both my brother and I will look silly for prediciting Shogun to win, but I can't believe it going any other way. As my brother said, Bones Jones has turmoil within his camp and all this hype as well as having just fought six weeks ago to deal with. Shogun hasn't fought since May of last year and had knee surgery so that makes things hard for him as well, but I still think that the fight will be stopped due to a knockout in the second round for the winner (read this part in your best Bruce Buffer voice) and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World...Mauricio SHOGUN Rua!!!!

And that's all I have to say about that. Keep fighting.

Jimbley's UFC 128 Predictions

UFC 128 is this weekend and features a huge main event of Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon "Bones"" Jones for the Light Heavyweight Title.  Overall, it isn't the best card on paper, but it should still be pretty good.  I'm going to run through the main pay per view card and give my predictions in each fight.

Undercard

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic [27-8-2] vs. Brendan Schaub [7-1]: I've already devoted space to how devastating Mirko Cro Cop once was.  Unfortunately and unexplainably, he has dropped off to the point where he is opening this card against a guy who is just above a prospect at this point.  Schaub is an ex-football player turned kickboxer whose two biggest fights were a brutal knockout loss to Roy Nelson and a decision win against Gabriel Gonzaga.  In Pride five years ago, a man of Schaub's caliber and style would be dead within five minutes against Mirko.  Now, he is a solid favorite in the betting lines.  Cro Cop claims to be in the best shape of his life and prepared to make one last run.  He says this every time.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me four times shame on everyone who has seen you in Pride.  As much as I want a Cro Cop KO, it is going to be Schaub by decision.

Dan Miller [13-4] vs. Nate Marquardt [30-10-2]: Miller is a late replacement for Yoshihiro Akiyama, who dropped out to tend to family in Japan.  Miller is a tough and scrappy guy, but Nate has been a top contender for the MW title for the past year or two, with losses to Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami keeping him from rematching Anderson Silva.  I like Miller and he's no slouch, he just isn't in Marquardt's class.  His biggest win is against Joe Doerksen.  I would very much like to see Miller win, but I'm going to go with Marquardt by decision.

Jim Miller [19-2] vs. Kamal Shalorus [7-0-2]: Jim Miller, brother of the aforementioned Dan, is a borderline contender in the crowded lightweight division.  Shalorus is a transfer from the WEC fighting his first match under the UFC banner.  Miller is a veteran whose only two losses are to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the top two fighters in the division.  This should be a decent scrap and Shalorus has a decent chance at an upset, but I think it will be Miller by decision.

Co-Main Event

Urijah Faber [24-4] vs. Eddie Wineland [18-6-1]: This is Faber's UFC debut, after being the face of the WEC for years.  This is his second fight at 135 lbs after being the 145 lb. champ and top contender for a long time.  Wineland is a former champ at 135 lb. champ and is very much a game opponent.  In the striking, Wineland has a slight advantage standing, but on the ground Faber is much better.  This should be fight of the night, as Faber is always exciting and relentless, even in defeat (ex. the Mike Brown fight where he broke both his hands and the Jose Aldo fight where Aldo absolutely destroyed Faber's leg).  He has more tools in his arsenal than Wineland at his disposal and a win for him would put him in line to fight the champ, Dominick Cruz in a highly anticipated match pitting Cruz against the only man to ever defeat him.  Going to go with Faber by second round submission.

Main Event

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua [19-4] vs. Jon Jones [12-1]: I'm so pumped for this fight, I can hardly stand it.  Jones is very much the future of the sport.  He's a dynamic striker with a relentless ground and pound and wrestling game.  He has proven thus far to be unstoppable and based on his youth (23 years old) and size (6'5" and naturally about 220 lbs with a UFC record 85" reach), could eventually end up as the most dominant heavyweight in MMA history, as well as the dominant light heavyweight of the next few years.  Shogun should be in his athletic prime (28 years old), but is coming off his third knee surgery in five years and a nearly one year layoff after a devastating knockout win over previously undefeated champ Lyoto Machida.  Betting lines have Jones as a slight favorite with the odds slowly tipping more in his favor as we get closer to the fight.  I don't think this is fair, as this is really an anything goes type fight.  Shogun's weakness is wrestling, which is Jones's forte.  Jones has never fought a devastating striker like Shogun, as his fights have been against mostly slower and older wrestlers.  This could be negated by Shogun's recovery from surgery.  Jones has also never fought a solid BJJ guy like Shogun, but on the flip side who knows how good Shogun's jiu jitsu is since he has only submitted Kevin Randleman in his career?  Tying in with Jones never facing a striker like Shogun is the fact that Shogun has faced larger fighters before, beating current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ Alistair Overeem twice decisively and Overeem is the same height as Jones, but bulkier.  I don't think anyone has mentioned this really when describing Jones's smothering top game, but while he is content to level his opponents from the open guard he does tend to leave his arms dangling out there for his opponent while he postures up.  This is dangerous against anyone with a jiu jitsu knowledge.  I could go on about this fight for a whole entry, as I think it is fascinating, but I'll get down to it and maybe write something about this whole thing later.  I see this fight going one of two ways:  either a Jones second or third round TKO by ground strikes, or Shogun via 2nd round KO or 3rd round submission.  I think Jones is getting caught up in a lot of hype right now between the media and his own camp that could distract him, plus he just fought five or six weeks ago.  Even though it was an easy win, it isn't easy to train again for a new opponent and peak again.  I'm going to take the underdog and say Shogun Rua by 3rd Round submission.

There you have it.  I don't know if my brother will post his picks, but I think I'm going to write another piece later about the Jones and Shogun fight and all the interesting storylines going into it.

Odds and Sods

Didn't really have any particular topic to discuss today, but there are a bunch of little stories I felt like going over.

• This topic has already been gone over extensively by the mainstream media and on this page, but allegedly the Miami Heat had players crying after their loss to the Bulls over the weekend.  I don't necessarily think its a sign of them being weak, but to cry after a losing streak in March is a bit weak.  If anyone on that team should be crying it should be Coach Spoelstra and Dwyane Wade.  Spo because he's going to get fired after this season when the losses aren't his fault.  Dwyane Wade because he has become the odd man out on his own team.  LeBron needs to stop shooting so much in the fourth quarter, as he becomes a stagnant jump shooter or lofts challenged layups that have little chance of going in.  Get Wade, a proven closer, the ball more in the clutch and there won't be so many choke jobs.  Also, perhaps implementing the Triangle/Motion offense would greatly help them, that and an offseason of learning to work off the ball.  Also, don't hold a championship celebration before the season starts and perhaps the media and fans won't revel in your failures.
• Dan Henderson justified my ranking him as the ninth best MMA fighter of all-time by winning the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Title this past Saturday.  He probably couldn't contend for that same title in the UFC, but he is still relevant at the age of 40 and has a nuclear missile of a right hand.  I think the UFC missed the boat by not keeping him around, as he can still fight and win against a high level of competition.  Anderson Silva would still eat him for lunch, but he is still probably capable of winning a round against him like he did in their first fight.
• I don't know how ESPN's John Hollinger develops his metric statistics, but his playoff odds now features the Chicago Bulls as the team most likely to make it to and win the NBA Finals.  Hollinger has not expressed much in the way of praise of the Bulls, so this came as quite a shock to me.  I don't want to talk too much about it, since I'm a die-hard Bulls fan and I fear jinxing them, but it is about time the Bulls get some respect from ESPN.  They are the only team to beat all the Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks, Celtics, Magic, and Heat.  They have managed to do this with Noah and Boozer both missing significant chunks of the season and without a decent starting shooting guard.  I'm not certain of their championship chances, but that team has believed in themselves from day one and have had great chemistry and it is nice to see that paying off.
• ,UFC 128 is coming up next week, and I believe that both my brother and I will have our predictions up for that.  The main event is Jon "Bones" Jones against UFC Light Heavyweight Champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.  Jones has been very vocal in his confidence by saying things like, "In my mind I've already won."  Nothing major, but over the past year it seems as if Jones has started to buy into his hype as the future of MMA.  Shogun is coming into this fight after knee surgery and a lengthy layoff (nearly a year).  This, and the aforementioned hype contribute to the fact Jones is a slight favorite heading into their fight.  But it seems to me that Jones and a lot of fans are forgetting that Shogun Rua is a bad, bad man.  Jones has never faced a man with the power and striking abilities of Shogun.  Also, Shogun is no slouch off his back either and at age 28, should be in his athletic prime.  While Jones is inexperienced with someone of Rua's style, Shogun has fought and defeated a wide range of people, from strong wrestlers like Mark Coleman to another skilled striker and grappler with a huge size advantage in Alistair Overeem, and was the first man to figure out how to beat Lyoto Machida.  While Jones is favored and rightly so, I just think that people are overlooking just how good Shogun Rua is.

That's it for now.  I do have some other articles coming up in the future, like how to fix the NBA salary cap and about Rashad Evans and his refusal to fight people he trains with.  In the meantime, feel free to leave a comment or something.

The losing doesn't surprise me, but the crying does

To quote sarcastic television personality Simon Cowell, “Wow that’s a shock. It’s like being told Santa Claus isn’t real. Unbelievable.” That was how I’ve been reacting to the Miami Heat dropping five of their last six, and four coming off LeBron misses in the final seconds to either win or go to overtime. First there was the 93-89 loss to Chicago in which the Bulls charged back from being down 9 and LeBron missed a three pointer to tie with seconds left.

Then they beat the lowly Washington Wizards but celebrated the victory by losing 91-86 to the Knicks, a game in which New York came back from being down 15 in the first half and LeBron had the shit stuffed out of him on a go ahead bucket and missed a game tying three.

Then they blew a 24 point lead against the Magic and lost 99-96 when LeBron missed a game tying three. To follow up that, they got blown out 125-95 against the league best Spurs. But surely their losing ways were done since they’d be hosting the Chicago Bulls who were playing the last game of a long road trip and were sure to be weary. Right?

Wrong! The Bulls once again charged back from a 9 point halftime deficit and won 87-86 when LeBron badly missed an awkward left handed lay up over the 7-foot Joakim Noah, only to have Dwyane Wade grab the board and miss a highly contested fade away jumper.

Six games. Four against the NBA’s upper echelon and one against the Knicks. Five losses. This doesn’t surprise me at all since the Heat roster is weak, they haven’t been able to beat teams above .500 all season, and LeBron is not this clutch world beater people want to believe he can be just so he can be like Michael Jordan. The Heat only boss bad teams, hence the one victory over the Wizards in their last six. Other than beating on the bad teams, it has been a rough time for the South Beach Heatles. Let us look at Miami’s record against the top teams in the league:

vs. Boston: 0-3
vs. Chicago: 0-3
vs. Dallas: 0-2
vs. Los Angeles: 1-0
vs. San Antonio: 0-1

That’s 1-9 against the top five teams in the league. Their one victory came against the Lakers in the Christmas game the Lakers publically stated they don’t give a shit about. Other than that they’ve gotten told and suffered defeat after defeat to the NBA’s best. Orlando is still an elite team and beat them twice, and the Knicks will be the 6 seed in the East and roared back from being down big to win. Both of those losses, as well as the two losses to Chicago, came off unclutch moments from LeBron. He keeps taking these threes when he isn’t that good of a three point shooter, and the ball keeps finding its way into his hands despite Dwyane Wade being on the team. Wade is a proven big time player, hence the 2006 Heat championship, but for some reason LeBron James is getting the star treatment on a team that should be under the leadership of a proven winner like Wade. Instead LeBron has claimed the Heat to be his. He said, “I told my team I’m not going to continue to fail them in close games,” following the loss to the Bulls. His team? Even Wade doesn’t know what to think.

After that same loss to the Bulls Wade gave a sad sack interview about how he’s used to having the ball in the fourth and how everybody has to get used to making sacrifices. He has a point. After all he’s done for that organization, why should Wade have to sacrifice being the man? Wade has proven he can destroy teams when it matters most, but for some reason LBJ is the one with the ball in the big moments. But while it is easy to agree with Wade on that, it was what else he said that irks me.

Wade sat stunned and sad at the podium and said, “The Miami Heat are exactly what everyone wanted, losing games. The world is a better place because the Heat is losing.” Way to act like a little baby because people don’t always want to cheer for your team. But it gets better. It came out that people on the roster were actually crying after the loss to Chicago. That basically confirms suspicions that Chris Bosh had been crying after the loss to Orlando then. Who cries after a regular season game in March?

Kevin Garnett only cried because he was wasting his prime carrying a crappy Timberwolves squad. Steve Nash only cried because the Spurs eliminated the Suns from the playoffs and the pursuit for a title was over. The Heat players are crying because they’ve lost four straight regular season games and people are booing them. What type of men are these? Who cries because people are rooting against them and they lost four straight games? Some people are trying to defend the tears by saying this game means a lot to the players, but go back and read the first two sentences of this paragraph. It is one thing to cry because you know your chance to win is nearly gone or you’re wasting your best years on a team destined to fail, but to cry because you can’t handle being cheered against and losing regular season games when you’re still have a chance to be the number 1 seed in your conference is lame and childish.

Seriously, who the hell cries over a regular season game? People are defending it by saying a lot of the losses have been close so it hurts. So? Man up! As a loyal fan, I cried when the Spurs eliminated the Suns in 2007 because that was horrible, but I didn’t cry when the Spurs beat the Suns on Christmas a couple years back off a Roger Mason game winning three. It is just the regular season. Play hard and take it seriously, but don’t act like bitches and cry if things aren’t going the way you hoped. They’re not running roughshod over the league and people aren’t cheering for them. And they’re actually surprised by the negative reception they’re getting.

Why would anybody boo them? LeBron James only toyed with the Cavaliers organization for two years about re-signing only to have an hour long special on ESPN in which he kicked them in the nuts and embarrassed them for the world to see. LBJ only quit on the Cavaliers in the playoffs last year. The Big 3 only danced and flexed on a stage like idiots then partied with Team USA and told anybody who would listen that the Heat would win over 70 games and dominate all. They brought the hate on themselves by acting like clowns. Even then it has gotten worse thanks to things like LeBron tweeting that karma’s a bitch after the Cavs lost by 55 to the Lakers a few months ago. Who would cheer for somebody so dickish?

Now after this losing streak and the crying and the gloomy press conferences, the Heat don’t look like focused and driven competitors prepared to learn from their losses and come back ready to destroy. Instead they look like babies who can’t handle adversity and the fact this season isn’t as easy as they were telling everybody it would be. Even Wade and James are starting to find themselves at odds with one another. This all isn’t surprising to anybody who really follows the NBA and put time into thinking about how this South Beach experiment would turn out, but that doesn’t make it any less awesome to see.

When has one team celebrated all off season like they’d be the rulers of the league only to go 1-18 on clutch shots and fail to beat good teams? And Basketbawful pointed out that the Cavaliers had a better record last year after 63 games than the Heat do this year. I wonder if LeBron finds that funny. I know I certainly do.

Top Ten MMA Fighters Of All-Time, According to iJames

The title of this is self-explanatory.  It is safe to assume that the coauthor of this blog might not agree with all my selections and the order they are in, so I made sure to put in the title that this is only this humble author's opinion.  Before I get into the top ten, I figured that I would throw out a few names of some people who could make the list in the next few years, depending on how their career pans out.

Potential Additions
Lyoto Machida: "The Dragon" was undefeated in his career until losing twice last year.  Before that, he was one of the most technically sound and elusive fighters in MMA history.  He could crack the top ten if he manages to get back on track and regain his dominance in the light heavyweight division.
Cain Velasquez: Cain recently won the UFC Heavyweight Title in October 2010 when he destroyed Brock Lesnar in the first round of their bout.  He is currently 9-0, and has won every round thus far in his career.  If he maintains this pace, he could go down in history as the greatest heavyweight in MMA history.  Time will tell for Cain.
Jon Jones: Jon Jones is the most highly regarded prospect in MMA right now.  He has an exciting and unique striking style, unstoppable takedowns and ground and pound, as well as powerful submissions.  He is the future of the sport and he could make himself the present if he wins the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on March 19 against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.  If he does that and has the lengthy title reign people expect, his entry into the top ten is a no-brainer.
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua: Shogun made a name for himself in Pride by winning the 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix in a dominant fashion and prior to his UFC debut, was considered the best in the world at 205 lbs.  His entry into the UFC was rough, with a loss to Forrest Griffin in his first match and a terrible win over Mark Coleman, but he has rebounded with a knockout win over Chuck Liddell and a brutal knockout of the previously undefeated Lyoto Machida.  If he manages to hold onto the belt for a few defenses, his resume would make him a borderline top ten fighter.

The Top Ten
10.) Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: (32-6-1-1) Nogueira is probably the greatest practicioner of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in MMA history.  He is the former Pride Heavyweight Champion, which he successfully defended five times.  He has beaten every big name in the sport, with the exception of Fedor Emelianenko.  He is a top notch boxer and a legend in the sport.
9.) Dan Henderson: (26-8) Hendo is a top notch wrestler and has a vicious right hand.  He is the only man to ever hold the 205 and 185 titles at the same time, which he did in Pride.  He holds a knockout win over Wanderlei Silva and his knockout win over Michael Bisping was highlight reel worthy.
8.) Wanderlei Silva: (33-10-1-1) The Axe Murderer is a legend in the sport and his reign over the Pride Middleweight division was legendary, not losing over a four year time frame.  His knockouts of Rampage Jackson in Pride were brutal and unforgettable.  A string of brutal knockout losses to Henderson and Mirko Cro Cop, followed by a decision loss to Chuck Liddell knocks him back a bit on the list.
7.) Chuck Liddell: (21-8) Chuck was the long reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, holding it for two years.  He holds two knockout wins over Randy Couture and is the only man to TKO Tito Ortiz, doing so twice.  Both his knockouts of Babalu Sobral are highlight reel worthy.  He also holds a knockout victory over current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ Alistair Overeem.  He was also responsible for the growth of MMA in the second half of the 2000s.  He would have been higher, but he stuck around two years too long and was on the receiving end of knockouts against Rampage Jackson, Rashad Evans, Shogun Rua, and Rich Franklin.
6.) BJ Penn: (16-7-2)  BJ is the most talented fighter in MMA history.  He was a jiu jitsu legend by the age of 18 and has some of the best boxing skills in the sport's history.  He is one of only two people in UFC history to hold titles in two different weight classes.  He beat Matt Hughes by knockout at a time that no one was beating Hughes.  The bigger the challenge, typically the better he fought.  He has the tools to be the greatest of all-time, but motivation and lackluster training methods have stopped him from reaching his full potential as a fighter.  Despite that, he is still a legend in the sport and his accomplishments are impressive.
5.) Matt Hughes: (45-8) Hughes, until Georges St. Pierre, was the most dominant UFC Welterweight Champ.  His slam of Carlos Newton and his submissions of Frank Trigg are incredible.  He also holds submission wins over Georges St. Pierre and BJ Penn and has the most wins in UFC history with 16.
4.) Fedor Emelianenko: (31-3-1) Fedor was the greatest heavyweight in the world for nearly a decade.  He holds two victories over Nogueira and he dominated Mirko Cro Cop at the peak of his career.  He has won the bulk of his fights by finishing his opponent.  His streak was very impressive and the main reason he isn't higher is due to the fact that his level competition has not been particularly impressive the past four years and his mystique has gone after two straight losses and a seeming unwillingness to expand his game and shore up any deficiencies he has.
3.) Randy Couture: (19-10) Don't judge Randy by his record.  His accomplishments in the sport and the fact he is so competitive as he nears 50 are no joke.  He is the first man to win titles in two divisions (heavyweight and light heavyweight) and came out of retirement to win the UFC Heavyweight Championship in 2007.  He was the first man in four years to defeat Chuck Liddell, as well as being the first in four years to defeat Tito Ortiz.  Randy has been in some of the biggest fights in the history of MMA and is a great ambassador for the sport.  The fact that he did all this while in his early 40s when fighting is a young man's game is all the more amazing.
2.) Georges St. Pierre: (21-2) GSP is the biggest star in MMA today.  He has endorsement deals with Gatorade and UnderArmous, thus making him the highest profile person in the sport.  He has held the UFC Welterweight title for nearly three years.  He hasn't even lost a round since losing the first round against Josh Koscheck in August 2007.  He has been the second most dominant fighter in the UFC over the past decade and holds wins over BJ Penn, John Fitch, Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra.  The only man to be more dominant than him is the man ranked number one.
1.) Anderson Silva: (28-4) Anderson Silva is the current UFC Middleweight Champ and hasn't lost since he joined the company in 2006.  If you discount his disqualification loss to Yushin Okami in 2006, he hasn't lost since December 2004.  He holds the record for most consecutive wins in the UFC with 13 and the most title defenses with seven.  He is the greatest striker in MMA and has shown an ability to submit people.  He is a once in a generation athlete and performer, the equivalent of Michael Jordan.  At some point, there will be at least one whole article on this site devoted to Anderson Silva.

Strikeforce is blowing it...

The first round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix was a couple of weeks ago and it was well received and provided a vicious knockout of former UFC Champ Andrei Arlovski by Pride veteran Sergei Kharitonov, as well as the incredible upset of Fedor Emelianenko by Antonio "Big Foot" Silva.  It was the second loss in a row for Fedor, both coming after ten straight years without a loss.  After the excitement delivered by these two fights, Strikeforce was gaining quite a bit of momentum.  The next installment of the tournament was supposed to feature Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem against the man who beat him five years ago and beat Fedor in June, Fabricio Werdum.  The other fight would pit perennial top ranked heavyweight Josh Barnett against Brett Rogers.   The date was supposed to be on April 9, 2010 and all the card needed was a venue.

Now, Strikeforce has decided to postpone the tournament until June 18 and is instead going to have a welterweight title bout between Nick Diaz, who just fought for Strikeforce in late January, and UFC castoff Paul Daley on April 9.  Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker said that this gives them more time to promote the fights and sets up for the semi-finals to be in September and the finals in December.  Coker is delusional.

This puts the winners from the first batch of fights on hold for seven months, a rather long layoff for fighters.  This also gives the winners of the potential June fights a pretty short layoff of about two months, dependent on health issues.  If a winner isn't allowed to fight for medical concerns, then the next round wouldn't be able to happen until October and would push the finals into next year, a year after the tournament started.

Coker is also mistaken in thinking the extra time to promote it is a good thing.  There was a ton of buzz after the first fights and Strikeforce is crazy not to take advantage of that immediately.  They will never top the UFC, but they can be a solid second source for mixed martial arts.  The heavyweight Grand Prix was something different that the UFC would never use, so it set Strikeforce apart as something besides a place for prospects and UFC castoffs.  It makes so much more sense to roll the momentum from the February fights into the early April ones.  If those went well, they could have done the semi-finals in late summer/early fall and the finals in December with ease.

Instead, Strikeforce is going to have to compete with the UFC during their peak season.  June should see a Brock Lesnar fight; a potential light heavyweight title match involving a combination of Shogun Rua, Jon Jones, Rashad Evans, and Rampage Jackson; the UFC's first card in Brazil in the Zuffa era; and a possible Anderson Silva-GSP fight.  Strikeforce is going to be lost in the shuffle of the annual summer MMA dominance of the UFC.  By running the Grand Prix in early April, late-August/early September, and early/mid-December, Strikeforce could be running with minimal opposition.

Strikeforce has the opportunity to do something special to set it apart from the UFC for a spell.  They have a heavyweight division that is arguably as good as that in the UFC and if they were running the Grand Prix more coherently (I didn't even get into the absurd rules and injury replacements), could do something really special for the sport.  Even Dana White said he was intrigued by the tournament, and that dude never gives compliments to the opposition.  If you can't take advantage of a situation where the man who tries to run every competitor into the ground is interested in what you're doing, there is something seriously wrong.  Strikeforce is blowing it.