Sunday, March 27, 2011

Hate to say I told you so...

It's funny.  When the Knicks traded for Carmelo Anthony, ESPN (on tv, not internet to be fair) started to tout New York as a team that could make a lengthy playoff run.  Once the Knicks won a bunch of games immediately following the trade, you would have thought it was 1994 and Ewing and Starks were back.  Now, reality has set in and the Knicks have a losing record post-trade, and are below .500 for the first time since early in the season.

Carmelo is going to get a lot of the blame, but it isn't because he is playing poorly.  It is really the fault of the Knicks for going with the trend of signing "stars" without thought to how well multpile stars with similar games will fit together, or that there needs to be a clear pecking order in a team's structure and role players ready and able to chip in a timely basket or stop.

The other factor in this is that Mike D'Antoni's offense is based on needing certain players to perform certain tasks and play in specific spots on the floor.  Due to the trade, the Knicks can no longer play the "Seven Seconds or Less" (SSOL) offense that D'Antoni has championed.

In Phoenix and pre-trade New York, the offense was based on each player fitting a certain role.  There is the power forward/center that operates from about 15-20 feet out to all the way around the basket.  On both teams, that was Amar'e Stoudemire's role.  Then the other two front court spots are usually at least one person who stands out on the wings to shoot open threes and the other either does clean up rebounding or also hovers on the three-point line.  In Phoenix these roles have been done over the years by Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Quentin Richardson, and Boris Diaw.  The Knicks haven't been able to fill both of these slots well, but one of them would be filled by Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Then the shooting guard position is someone who can shoot open threes.  Phoenix has used Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, and now Vince Carter.  The Knicks use Landry Fields.  The final piece is the point guard that can hit from anywhere on the floor and dishes to everyone else on the floor.  For the Suns, that's been Steve Nash and for the Knicks it has been Ray Felton and Chauncey Billups.

The SSOL offense requires constant and fast ball movement and sound decision making, which is where the Knicks fall flat.  Carmelo holds the ball for awhile before making a decision.  Plus, he isn't really a perimeter player and fills the same space on the floor as Stoudemire.  This means that one of the two is always going to be out of the action.  Without Gallinari and Chandler, this closes the floor alot and makes it easier to stop STAT and Melo by just crowding the lane.

This is the main reason why the Knicks aren't scoring as much.  Melo slows down the pace of their offense considerably, plus their they are hitting fewer threes per game.  Their defense is still terrible, but it doesn't seem like they allow as many points because the pace of the game has slowed down considerably.  Billups is a good point guard, but he isn't the right one for the D'Antoni's system.  In Phoenix, Nash was the primary ballhandler and distributor.  In New York, the ball is staying in Carmelo or Stoudemire's hands for the bulk of each possession.

D'Antoni is taking a lot of heat for how the Knicks are playing, with pundits saying his system doesn't work.  The problem is that the personnel he was given doesn't match what he needs.  New York, like seemingly every team, is in love with the concept of having multiple superstars of equal or near equal stature and abilities.  This doesn't work unless someone is willing to become a secondary player for the team.  Miami is currently experiencing that because Wade and LeBron currently occupy the same spaces and like the ball in the same places at the same times.  Boston has had success because Pierce has been delineated as the primary scorer, Allen is willing to float off screens, and Garnett has harnessed his energy into the defensive end of the floor.  Chicago has a clear top dog with Rose, while Deng and Boozer are the supporting scorers.  The Lakers have Kobe as the alpha male, with Pau, Odom, and Bynum as the support.

New York doesn't even have the cast of Miami.  Chris Bosh fills the third fiddle role that New York doesn't have, plus LeBron and Wade (while similar players) are both considerably better and more complete than Stoudemire and Anthony.  And Knicks fans shouldn't get their hopes up for Chris Paul or Deron Williams either.  Paul will help more than Williams since D-Will scores more, but the issues of depth would still persist.  Although to be fair, depth issues and lack of steam at the end of season would be a D'Antoni trademark.

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