UFC 128 is this weekend and features a huge main event of Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon "Bones"" Jones for the Light Heavyweight Title. Overall, it isn't the best card on paper, but it should still be pretty good. I'm going to run through the main pay per view card and give my predictions in each fight.
Undercard
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic [27-8-2] vs. Brendan Schaub [7-1]: I've already devoted space to how devastating Mirko Cro Cop once was. Unfortunately and unexplainably, he has dropped off to the point where he is opening this card against a guy who is just above a prospect at this point. Schaub is an ex-football player turned kickboxer whose two biggest fights were a brutal knockout loss to Roy Nelson and a decision win against Gabriel Gonzaga. In Pride five years ago, a man of Schaub's caliber and style would be dead within five minutes against Mirko. Now, he is a solid favorite in the betting lines. Cro Cop claims to be in the best shape of his life and prepared to make one last run. He says this every time. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me four times shame on everyone who has seen you in Pride. As much as I want a Cro Cop KO, it is going to be Schaub by decision.
Dan Miller [13-4] vs. Nate Marquardt [30-10-2]: Miller is a late replacement for Yoshihiro Akiyama, who dropped out to tend to family in Japan. Miller is a tough and scrappy guy, but Nate has been a top contender for the MW title for the past year or two, with losses to Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami keeping him from rematching Anderson Silva. I like Miller and he's no slouch, he just isn't in Marquardt's class. His biggest win is against Joe Doerksen. I would very much like to see Miller win, but I'm going to go with Marquardt by decision.
Jim Miller [19-2] vs. Kamal Shalorus [7-0-2]: Jim Miller, brother of the aforementioned Dan, is a borderline contender in the crowded lightweight division. Shalorus is a transfer from the WEC fighting his first match under the UFC banner. Miller is a veteran whose only two losses are to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the top two fighters in the division. This should be a decent scrap and Shalorus has a decent chance at an upset, but I think it will be Miller by decision.
Co-Main Event
Urijah Faber [24-4] vs. Eddie Wineland [18-6-1]: This is Faber's UFC debut, after being the face of the WEC for years. This is his second fight at 135 lbs after being the 145 lb. champ and top contender for a long time. Wineland is a former champ at 135 lb. champ and is very much a game opponent. In the striking, Wineland has a slight advantage standing, but on the ground Faber is much better. This should be fight of the night, as Faber is always exciting and relentless, even in defeat (ex. the Mike Brown fight where he broke both his hands and the Jose Aldo fight where Aldo absolutely destroyed Faber's leg). He has more tools in his arsenal than Wineland at his disposal and a win for him would put him in line to fight the champ, Dominick Cruz in a highly anticipated match pitting Cruz against the only man to ever defeat him. Going to go with Faber by second round submission.
Main Event
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua [19-4] vs. Jon Jones [12-1]: I'm so pumped for this fight, I can hardly stand it. Jones is very much the future of the sport. He's a dynamic striker with a relentless ground and pound and wrestling game. He has proven thus far to be unstoppable and based on his youth (23 years old) and size (6'5" and naturally about 220 lbs with a UFC record 85" reach), could eventually end up as the most dominant heavyweight in MMA history, as well as the dominant light heavyweight of the next few years. Shogun should be in his athletic prime (28 years old), but is coming off his third knee surgery in five years and a nearly one year layoff after a devastating knockout win over previously undefeated champ Lyoto Machida. Betting lines have Jones as a slight favorite with the odds slowly tipping more in his favor as we get closer to the fight. I don't think this is fair, as this is really an anything goes type fight. Shogun's weakness is wrestling, which is Jones's forte. Jones has never fought a devastating striker like Shogun, as his fights have been against mostly slower and older wrestlers. This could be negated by Shogun's recovery from surgery. Jones has also never fought a solid BJJ guy like Shogun, but on the flip side who knows how good Shogun's jiu jitsu is since he has only submitted Kevin Randleman in his career? Tying in with Jones never facing a striker like Shogun is the fact that Shogun has faced larger fighters before, beating current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ Alistair Overeem twice decisively and Overeem is the same height as Jones, but bulkier. I don't think anyone has mentioned this really when describing Jones's smothering top game, but while he is content to level his opponents from the open guard he does tend to leave his arms dangling out there for his opponent while he postures up. This is dangerous against anyone with a jiu jitsu knowledge. I could go on about this fight for a whole entry, as I think it is fascinating, but I'll get down to it and maybe write something about this whole thing later. I see this fight going one of two ways: either a Jones second or third round TKO by ground strikes, or Shogun via 2nd round KO or 3rd round submission. I think Jones is getting caught up in a lot of hype right now between the media and his own camp that could distract him, plus he just fought five or six weeks ago. Even though it was an easy win, it isn't easy to train again for a new opponent and peak again. I'm going to take the underdog and say Shogun Rua by 3rd Round submission.
There you have it. I don't know if my brother will post his picks, but I think I'm going to write another piece later about the Jones and Shogun fight and all the interesting storylines going into it.
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