Zuffacaps off another year of big fights on Friday, December 30 with UFC 141. It features a massive main event, both literally and figuratively, as Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon after a lengthy battle with diverticulitis and takes on fellow behemoth Alistair “the Demoltion Man” Overeem for the right to take on Junior Dos Santos in a title fight next year. The co-main event features what should be a very exciting lightweight scrap between Nate Diaz and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. The rest of the card is a little “meh,” but with Brock Lesnar’s return the UFC doesn’t need to stack the card to increase interest. To be fair, it is still a better undercard than Penn/Diaz and Rampage/Hamill. Let’s get into it.
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes: This is a featherweight bout featuring one dude I’ve never heard of (Hettes) against someone I don’t care for (Phan). Hettes looks like he is a prospect with sick submission skills and Phan is a striker who has fought Leonard Garcia twice in the past year, losing one questionably and almost getting knocked out while dominating the second. I wasn’t impressed with Phan in his win against Garcia and he lost to Mike Thomas Brown, who has seen better days. Hettes beat some dude from the same season of the Ultimate Fighter Phan was on, so I assume this fight is to build him up some more. I’m going to go with Hettes by second round submission.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Matyushenko has been fighting MMA since the USSR collapsed and Gustafsson is supposed to be part of the future of the light heavyweight division. This should be a real test of where he stands, as “The Janitor” should be a game opponent for Gustafsson. Vlad really only loses to the top level guys, or people on their way to that point. His only defeats are to Jon Jones (2010), Little Nog (2009), Andrei Arlovski (2003), Tito Ortiz (2001), and Vernon White (1999). Gustafsson recently beat Matt Hamill to a pulp (and into retirement) and has looked much improved since his loss to fellow up and comer Phil Davis last year. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gustafsson to dominate. Matyushenko needs to grapple and grind away to win. Gustafsson thwarted Hamill’s wrestling based game; I expect him to do the same to Matyushenko. I don’t know that he’ll finish him, so let’s say Gustafsson by decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: No one took the news of GSP’s injury better than Fitch, I presume. The perennial number 2 welterweight in the world could potentially get himself in a title fight next year if he continues his winning ways here. His opponent, Hendricks, is no pushover though. Hendricks is also a wrestling based fighter, with top notch NCAA credentials, but can also trade on the feet (unlike Fitch). I expect this fight to be a bit of a snoozer, as Jon Fitch fights make me weep if I manage to stay awake through them. I really can’t decide who I want to win, as Fitch is dull and Hendricks spells his first name like a goof. People seem to think Hendricks has a good chance to win this and I feel like Fitch hasn’t looked great in his past few fights, but he is still the most dominant UFC fighter not named St. Pierre or Silva in the past five years. With a potential chance at a title shot, I expect him to put forth a better effort than lately, where it seems like he was treading water because he knew he wasn’t getting GSP again. Fitch by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone has been on a tear this year, going 4-0 since joining the UFC after the WEC was closed for business. He is looking for a fifth win in 2011, an impressive feat to be sure. Diaz is looking refreshed since moving back to lightweight after a stint at welterweight. Diaz looked great against the ghost of Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 and Cerrone crushed Dennis Siver at UFC 137. The winner of this fight could be a fringe title contender next year, probably only needing one more win to get a shot. Diaz struggles against wrestlers with strong top games and Cerrone struggles against Ben Henderson, so neither of their weaknesses should come into play here. I lean towards Diaz, due to the fact he has fought consistently tougher competition the past several years and I like the way the Diaz brothers throw down. In what should be the fight of the night, Diaz by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: This is like Thor vs. the Incredible Hulk, two monsters in the cage going at it. There are so many questions going into this fight. For Lesnar - 1.) Is he in good health after battling diverticulitis for the past two years? 2.) Is he still afraid to get punched? 3.) Have his overall skills improved? 4.) Does he still have the dominant wrestling he used against Frank Mir? For Overeem - 1.) Can he stop Lesnar’s takedowns/can he keep the fight standing? 2.) Have the steroid allegations and his mother’s illness distracted him? 3.) Is he underestimating Lesnar by looking past him? 4.) Is he all hype, or actually a legit top 5 heavyweight? Lesnar’s inability to set up takedowns because of his poor striking game was exposed by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, but both of those men have extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds. Overeem is not a wrestling machine and has not ever fought someone with Lesnar’s skill in that department. Two things can happen when Lesnar comes in with that chest high takedown he goes for when he is trying to avoid striking - 1.) he could walk right into one of Overeem’s lethal knee strikes or patented standing guillotine or 2.) Overeem could get bulldozed into the mat and be at the mercy of Lesnar’s vicious ground strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t establish the takedown, I don’t have much faith in his abilities to stand with the Reem. Cain Velasquez was able to tee off on Brock and he is nowhere near Overeem’s level of striker. If it stays standing, I expect Overeem to finish within two rounds. For Overeem, he needs to defend the takedown and get up quickly if brought down. Just as importantly, he needs to do this without gassing out. I have no faith in his abilities to persevere through a round or two of takedowns and ground and pound. I tend to think that Overeem’s takedown defense (his biggest weakness) is not nearly as crippling as Lesnar’s weakness in responding to strikes. On the other hand, I feel like Lesnar may be able to turn a knee to the body into a takedown. He seems to be able physically to take a shot, but not mentally. If he eats a hard punch or knee to the face, he’s done. I think this is what happens. Lesnar is going to come out blazing for a takedown. If he gets it, he pounds on Overeem en route to a second round TKO. If he doesn’t, he gets caught and stumbles. From there, Overeem blasts away with knees to the body and punches and gets a first round TKO. I’m torn over which option happens. In some ways it doesn’t matter because I think Junior Dos Santos can beat both men, although the Reem would be tougher for him. Let’s go Overeem by first round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
UFC 140 Predictions
It’s that time again. UFC 140 is this weekend and it features a huge main event, as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones makes his second defense in the past three months and fights for the fourth time this year as he takes on former champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Also in action are the Nogueira twins, as Big Nog faces Frank Mir in a rematch of his first ever knockout defeat in 2008 and Little Nog faces off against the former “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” and current self-proclaimed “People’s Champ” Tito Ortiz. All in all, it should make for an interesting night of fights.
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.
Joe's UFC 140 Predictions
Another big UFC card is upon us! Jon Jones looks to cement his place at the top of the division against Lyoto Machida, Minotauro Nogueira looks to prove the first time Frank Mir beat him was a fluke, and Tito Ortiz is out to show he's still got something left in the tank. The three big fights should be pretty awesome and I'm pretty pumped for the card. Here's how it will go down:
Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.
Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.
Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.
For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.
Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.
Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.
Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.
For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.
Friday, December 2, 2011
A Rant on WWE's Lame Attempts to Keep John Cena a Face
Since winning the WWE Championship at WrestleMania 21 in April of 2005, World Wrestling Entertainment has pushed John Cena as the big star of the company. Cena was made to be “the guy” in the company for three years, and as the WWE’s product shifted from TV-14 to TV-PG in late 2008, Cena took on the role of a modern day Hulk Hogan and his push as "the guy" was increased tenfold. He is a hero to the children. A character who stands for America and the ideal that you should never give up no matter what. Children are part of the “Cenation” and their support gives Cena this superhuman ability to lay around and do nothing for 20 minutes, only to spring to life and do five moves to win. This gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan back during the 80s, but in this day and age it just doesn’t fly.
Four months after Cena became champion and received the push to become the modern day Hulk Hogan, he started hearing boos from the crowds. Women and little kids may have bought into the hype, but men weren’t having any of it. Cena was booed in his feud with Chris Jericho in the summer of 2005, and it only got more intense from there. From the end of his Jericho feud all the way to January of 2006, Cena was feuding with Kurt Angle. Cena was still supposed to be the hero but Angle was receiving a lot of cheers from the crowd. In January of 06 Cena defended his WWE Championship in an elimination chamber match at New Years Revolution and was booed the entire match. After Cena won, Edge came out to cash in his guaranteed championship match and despite being one of the biggest heels (bad guys) in the company Edge received enormous fanfare after he beat Cena to win the title. In feuds with Triple H and Shawn Michaels they had Cena win the matches but he lost the popularity contests badly.
This has been the case for six years now. Cena has been pushed as the face (good guy) but constantly receives mixed reactions or sometimes even straight up boos. The reason for this is simple: Cena’s corny and has been shoved down the fans’ throats. The gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan in the 80s because people wanted a superhero character and there had never been one like that in wrestling before and it came naturally. The fans made Hogan a star, whereas the WWE has decided Cena is their star. Cena has been force fed to the fans and acts like he’s some kind of American hero but it is just silly. Hogan’s whole “Real American” thing was borne out of the Cold War. Rocky even went to Russia to fight Drago in Rocky IV in the mid 80s. Hogan was able to do what he did because it had never been seen in the wrestling world before and it came across as genuine and was perfrect for the time period. But even then, after a few years people grew weary of Hulkamania. In the 90s things started to change.
People got tired of Hulkamania after a few years because it was the same thing every time. Hogan was going to get beat up then shake his arms and hit a few moves and win. He would cut the same promo about the power of Hulkamania. People didn’t want to see it anymore. The WWF (that’s right, the good ol’ pre-WWE days) went about keeping him a good guy by doing stupid things like playing up the American hero routine. They turned Sgt. Slaughter, an American patriot, into an Iraqi sympathizer and friend of Saddam Hussein and had Hogan beat him to defend the honor of America. It was a ridiculous storyline and a cheap way to keep Hogan face. The WWF even ignored Sid Justice being cheered for throwing Hulk Hogan out in the 1992 Royal Rumble. Hulkamania was right for the time and people loved it, but as the times changed it became lame. With wrestling getting edgier with characters like Stone Cold Steve Austin and D-Generation X in the late 90s, the cartoon superhero character was done.
Aside from little kids and women, nobody buys into Cena because his character is ridiculously corny in this day and age. Older fans remember guys like Stone Cold and The Rock and know Cena is a bad rip off of Hogan. WWE has made the mistake of putting Cena up against guys who are obviously more charismatic and better workers than he is. Sure Hogan wasn’t a very good worker, but in terms of natural charisma he was nearly untouchable. Cena doesn’t have that. What person old enough to understand anything is going to cheer for Cena over somebody like Kurt Angle or Chris Jericho or Michaels or Triple H? Those guys are phenomenal workers (sans Triple H) and great promo guys. Cena’s promos involve corny yelling and they make him come across like Vin Diesel. For years Cena’s promos consisted of gay jokes, yelling, and making stupid jokes like saying people with annoying voices sound like two old cats trying to have sex. Now he’s just thrown out the gay jokes since it is TV-PG.
What is better is the fact that Hogan had a run at the top as the biggest face on the planet for years while Cena’s run hardly lasted a few months before he started to hear it from the crowds. Rather than turn him heel and make things really interesting, the WWE has taken idiotic steps to keep him as a good guy. First they had commentators acknowledge the boos and say he’s “the most controversial superstar” in the history of this business. That’s a nice way of saying, “We hear your boos and although we can’t drown out your boos we know we’ll make a shit ton of money off little kids’ parents buying Cena’s shit so we’re not turning him heel anytime ever.” Second, they put him up against weak competition so he could look like a hero. They gave guys like Umaga, whose gimmick was that he was a Samoan savage and never spoke any kind of language other than nonsensical screaming, and Sheamus, a big Irish dude whose gimmick is that he’s an Irish warrior, feuds for the WWE title just so Cena would have a bad guy to play off of. Sheamus even won the belt. That guy never deserved to hold a belt that people like Mr. Perfect and Roddy Piper never had, but WWE put it on him just to make Cena look like a hero when he got it back.
The lamest tactic the WWE has used in keeping Cena face is the use of American imagery in his gimmick. It is nice that John Cena loves America and the troops but it is a lame and corny tool used to keep him in the fan’s good graces. They have Cena salute all the time and wear camo shorts sometimes to show his respect for the armed forces. Most of his shirts involve a red, white, and blue color scheme. The top light bar on the Titantron (entrance stage in real person speak, Titantron in the WWE) is an American flag during his entrance. This isn’t like the Cold War era that Hogan found himself in where he’s fighting Russians. There is no foreign threat to America that Cena is up against, they are just shamelessly putting American stuff on his merchandise to make him seem like he’s a good young man. It is good he loves his country but that’s a cheap marketing trick to get a cheap pop from the crowd rather than a piece of his character. And while it works for little kids and women, the biggest demographic in the business isn’t buying it.
People say WWE fans “love to hate” Cena. You love to hate somebody when you know deep down they’re awesome but you play along with the business and boo them regardless like with somebody like Mr. Perfect or something. Cena is booed because wrestling fans aren’t idiots and won’t be told who to like. It has been six years of this and it is only getting worse now that Cena is in a feud with The Rock set to culminate in the main event of next year’s WrestleMania. Every time Cena and The Rock are face to face hardly anybody is cheering for Cena. This isn’t just a nostalgia pop for The Rock like Hogan got at WrestleMania 18 when he fought Rock. This is both genuine love for The Rock and a desire for him to come back full time since he’s still in his prime in terms of wrestling years, as well as the fact people are tired of Cena. This is the WWE’s last big match it could do and as bad as they want Cena to be the face of the new generation, The Rock is one of the two or three biggest stars in the history of the business and the fans are not going to go against him.
This past Monday on Raw the WWE finally acknowledged the boos Cena has been getting by having Roddy Piper confront him about it and tell him to “make right” with the fans. Cena is sporting a new shirt that says “RISE ABOVE HATE” in red, white, and blue of course. This both says he’s a patriot and that the company doesn’t care if you’re going to boo Cena since he’s still the big face. Cena said the boos don’t affect him since he wrestles for the children or something. It is nice that they want Cena to be the hero to the little kids still, but when it comes to the wrestling business the only thing you can do is give the people what they want: John Cena as a heel.
No American flags or weak opponents can change the fact that Cena’s best run was as a heel who walked around cutting raps in 2003. When CM Punk left the company earlier this year with the WWE Championship then returned to feud with Cena when Cena had won a tournament to crown the new champ, Punk got a monster pop for being the returning hero and everybody wanted him over the big star of the company. People aren’t just cheering for The Rock over Cena because they haven’t seen him in a while, they are cheering for him because they hate Cena and want to see him finally do the job to an all-time great. Michaels, Triple H, Angle, and Jericho all had to do the job for Cena and the fans were pissed and they want to see Cena get beat by somebody they like.
Cena’s time at the top of the company is coming to an end as evidenced by the rise of CM Punk and the fall of the TV-PG era. The fans haven’t accepted Cena as the “the guy” for six years and their dislike of him gets stronger every day. The WWE doesn’t have a choice other than to just turn him heel and see where it goes from there. You can’t say fans won’t buy his stuff because when WCW turned Hulk Hogan heel and put him at the head of the NWO merchandise sold big time. Cena has been stale for years and it is time for a change.
Four months after Cena became champion and received the push to become the modern day Hulk Hogan, he started hearing boos from the crowds. Women and little kids may have bought into the hype, but men weren’t having any of it. Cena was booed in his feud with Chris Jericho in the summer of 2005, and it only got more intense from there. From the end of his Jericho feud all the way to January of 2006, Cena was feuding with Kurt Angle. Cena was still supposed to be the hero but Angle was receiving a lot of cheers from the crowd. In January of 06 Cena defended his WWE Championship in an elimination chamber match at New Years Revolution and was booed the entire match. After Cena won, Edge came out to cash in his guaranteed championship match and despite being one of the biggest heels (bad guys) in the company Edge received enormous fanfare after he beat Cena to win the title. In feuds with Triple H and Shawn Michaels they had Cena win the matches but he lost the popularity contests badly.
This has been the case for six years now. Cena has been pushed as the face (good guy) but constantly receives mixed reactions or sometimes even straight up boos. The reason for this is simple: Cena’s corny and has been shoved down the fans’ throats. The gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan in the 80s because people wanted a superhero character and there had never been one like that in wrestling before and it came naturally. The fans made Hogan a star, whereas the WWE has decided Cena is their star. Cena has been force fed to the fans and acts like he’s some kind of American hero but it is just silly. Hogan’s whole “Real American” thing was borne out of the Cold War. Rocky even went to Russia to fight Drago in Rocky IV in the mid 80s. Hogan was able to do what he did because it had never been seen in the wrestling world before and it came across as genuine and was perfrect for the time period. But even then, after a few years people grew weary of Hulkamania. In the 90s things started to change.
People got tired of Hulkamania after a few years because it was the same thing every time. Hogan was going to get beat up then shake his arms and hit a few moves and win. He would cut the same promo about the power of Hulkamania. People didn’t want to see it anymore. The WWF (that’s right, the good ol’ pre-WWE days) went about keeping him a good guy by doing stupid things like playing up the American hero routine. They turned Sgt. Slaughter, an American patriot, into an Iraqi sympathizer and friend of Saddam Hussein and had Hogan beat him to defend the honor of America. It was a ridiculous storyline and a cheap way to keep Hogan face. The WWF even ignored Sid Justice being cheered for throwing Hulk Hogan out in the 1992 Royal Rumble. Hulkamania was right for the time and people loved it, but as the times changed it became lame. With wrestling getting edgier with characters like Stone Cold Steve Austin and D-Generation X in the late 90s, the cartoon superhero character was done.
Aside from little kids and women, nobody buys into Cena because his character is ridiculously corny in this day and age. Older fans remember guys like Stone Cold and The Rock and know Cena is a bad rip off of Hogan. WWE has made the mistake of putting Cena up against guys who are obviously more charismatic and better workers than he is. Sure Hogan wasn’t a very good worker, but in terms of natural charisma he was nearly untouchable. Cena doesn’t have that. What person old enough to understand anything is going to cheer for Cena over somebody like Kurt Angle or Chris Jericho or Michaels or Triple H? Those guys are phenomenal workers (sans Triple H) and great promo guys. Cena’s promos involve corny yelling and they make him come across like Vin Diesel. For years Cena’s promos consisted of gay jokes, yelling, and making stupid jokes like saying people with annoying voices sound like two old cats trying to have sex. Now he’s just thrown out the gay jokes since it is TV-PG.
What is better is the fact that Hogan had a run at the top as the biggest face on the planet for years while Cena’s run hardly lasted a few months before he started to hear it from the crowds. Rather than turn him heel and make things really interesting, the WWE has taken idiotic steps to keep him as a good guy. First they had commentators acknowledge the boos and say he’s “the most controversial superstar” in the history of this business. That’s a nice way of saying, “We hear your boos and although we can’t drown out your boos we know we’ll make a shit ton of money off little kids’ parents buying Cena’s shit so we’re not turning him heel anytime ever.” Second, they put him up against weak competition so he could look like a hero. They gave guys like Umaga, whose gimmick was that he was a Samoan savage and never spoke any kind of language other than nonsensical screaming, and Sheamus, a big Irish dude whose gimmick is that he’s an Irish warrior, feuds for the WWE title just so Cena would have a bad guy to play off of. Sheamus even won the belt. That guy never deserved to hold a belt that people like Mr. Perfect and Roddy Piper never had, but WWE put it on him just to make Cena look like a hero when he got it back.
The lamest tactic the WWE has used in keeping Cena face is the use of American imagery in his gimmick. It is nice that John Cena loves America and the troops but it is a lame and corny tool used to keep him in the fan’s good graces. They have Cena salute all the time and wear camo shorts sometimes to show his respect for the armed forces. Most of his shirts involve a red, white, and blue color scheme. The top light bar on the Titantron (entrance stage in real person speak, Titantron in the WWE) is an American flag during his entrance. This isn’t like the Cold War era that Hogan found himself in where he’s fighting Russians. There is no foreign threat to America that Cena is up against, they are just shamelessly putting American stuff on his merchandise to make him seem like he’s a good young man. It is good he loves his country but that’s a cheap marketing trick to get a cheap pop from the crowd rather than a piece of his character. And while it works for little kids and women, the biggest demographic in the business isn’t buying it.
People say WWE fans “love to hate” Cena. You love to hate somebody when you know deep down they’re awesome but you play along with the business and boo them regardless like with somebody like Mr. Perfect or something. Cena is booed because wrestling fans aren’t idiots and won’t be told who to like. It has been six years of this and it is only getting worse now that Cena is in a feud with The Rock set to culminate in the main event of next year’s WrestleMania. Every time Cena and The Rock are face to face hardly anybody is cheering for Cena. This isn’t just a nostalgia pop for The Rock like Hogan got at WrestleMania 18 when he fought Rock. This is both genuine love for The Rock and a desire for him to come back full time since he’s still in his prime in terms of wrestling years, as well as the fact people are tired of Cena. This is the WWE’s last big match it could do and as bad as they want Cena to be the face of the new generation, The Rock is one of the two or three biggest stars in the history of the business and the fans are not going to go against him.
This past Monday on Raw the WWE finally acknowledged the boos Cena has been getting by having Roddy Piper confront him about it and tell him to “make right” with the fans. Cena is sporting a new shirt that says “RISE ABOVE HATE” in red, white, and blue of course. This both says he’s a patriot and that the company doesn’t care if you’re going to boo Cena since he’s still the big face. Cena said the boos don’t affect him since he wrestles for the children or something. It is nice that they want Cena to be the hero to the little kids still, but when it comes to the wrestling business the only thing you can do is give the people what they want: John Cena as a heel.
No American flags or weak opponents can change the fact that Cena’s best run was as a heel who walked around cutting raps in 2003. When CM Punk left the company earlier this year with the WWE Championship then returned to feud with Cena when Cena had won a tournament to crown the new champ, Punk got a monster pop for being the returning hero and everybody wanted him over the big star of the company. People aren’t just cheering for The Rock over Cena because they haven’t seen him in a while, they are cheering for him because they hate Cena and want to see him finally do the job to an all-time great. Michaels, Triple H, Angle, and Jericho all had to do the job for Cena and the fans were pissed and they want to see Cena get beat by somebody they like.
Cena’s time at the top of the company is coming to an end as evidenced by the rise of CM Punk and the fall of the TV-PG era. The fans haven’t accepted Cena as the “the guy” for six years and their dislike of him gets stronger every day. The WWE doesn’t have a choice other than to just turn him heel and see where it goes from there. You can’t say fans won’t buy his stuff because when WCW turned Hulk Hogan heel and put him at the head of the NWO merchandise sold big time. Cena has been stale for years and it is time for a change.
Monday, November 21, 2011
UFC 139 Thoughts Part 1: A Legendary Fight
I wonder if Dana White regrets not promoting UFC 139 harder during the UFC on Fox. In the chaos around the network debut and Brock Lesnar’s return next month, this show seemed to get lost in the shuffle. It’s a shame really, as it was one of the best cards in terms of action in quite some time and it provided one of the greatest and most brutal fights of all-time in its main event.
Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua waged an absolute war against each other. It was the type of fight that has to rank highly in the pantheon of great fights in the sport’s history; the heart, damage taken, and brutality unleashed by each man would have been enough to stop another fighter in their tracks. Instead, this went a full twenty-five minutes and set the bar for five round non-title main events impossibly high for any others to follow.
The fact that Henderson won a unanimous decision or that I and many others scored it a draw is immaterial. When two fighters put on the type of performance displayed in their bout, no one really loses. Both men really gain in the eyes of the fans. They each took the best of what the other had to offer and were still standing at the end, albeit with the help of their respective cornermen.
My fiancee’s brother often watches the fights with us and while he doesn’t seem to mind them, this had to be the first fight that I ever heard him openly state he enjoyed. If I recall correctly, he said it was the best he had seen and it seemed to make him a fan of both men. That is the essence of a great fight. For me, I’ve watched hundreds of fights over the years and I would be hard pressed to name more than a few fights that are in the same class as this one. There are fights with big knockouts, submissions, or comebacks, but in terms of fights that go the distance or close to it, you can’t do much better than this one.
In the first round, Shogun looked like he was dead meat after reeling from one of Hendo’s massive right hands. Somehow he responded by dropping Henderson. In the second round, Shogun looked to be on weary legs as he fought his way through more of Hendo’s massive bombs. By the halfway point of the fight, Shogun was on the ground in the turtle position in an attempt to avoid having his skull plastered to the mat from Hendo’s hammerfists. It was at this moment I thought the fight was going to be stopped, but somehow Rua responded with a heel hook that nearly caught Hendo. In the fourth round Shogun caught Henderson with a right that put him on spaghetti legs, but somehow he couldn’t get the finish. In the fifth, it was a stunning display of dominance as Shogun had Henderson mounted and rained down blows for the entirety of the round. It was a tremendous display of strength by the obviously gassed Henderson to avoid a TKO or submission loss in the last two rounds after spending so much energy and power pounding on Shogun through the first three. For Shogun the fact he made it to the end, much less finished strongly after taking an absolute beating in the beginning of the fight was just unbelievable. I said it already, but the onslaught both men dished out would have finished any other fighter. This isn’t an exaggeration either. I don’t care if you’re Jon Jones or Anderson Silva. No human being could endure the punishment they went through. If you haven’t seen this fight you need to do so immediately.
I wrote last week that I was looking forward to this fight and expected it to be great. I certainly didn’t expect to witness the best fight I’ve ever seen live. It was reminiscent of the wars both men were capable of in PRIDE, the only difference being that PRIDE ended five years ago and Henderson is now 41, while Shogun has been fighting on bad knees for years. I didn’t think that Shogun was capable of having a fight on par with the one he had against Little Nogueira in 2005 and I didn’t think any human being could survive the barrage Rua lets fly when he goes for the kill like Hendo did.
People calling for an immediate rematch between the two are crazy. After this fight, they shouldn’t face off again unless it is for a title. Besides, there is no way that a second fight can possibly top this one. Fans should just appreciate this fight and what they went through rather than expect more. Of course, it appears that even Shogun wants to do it again, so shows what I know. With that being said, what should come next for Hendo and Rua?
Dan Henderson: Has Hendo’s value ever been higher? And has he ever enjoyed a better twelve month span in his career? He’s gone from being considered done as an elite fighter after losing to Jake Shields in his Strikeforce debut to having a legitimate claim as the number two light heavyweight in the world. It is clear that 205 lbs. is where Hendo should be. I’ve heard some people calling for him to take on Rashad Evans in a title eliminator, but I think that Henderson’s next fight should be for the title. Evans was unable to compete at UFC 140 due to an injury, but wants to fight again rather than wait for the title shot. He’ll be ready in the next few months to fight, but Hendo certainly won’t. No one knows what is going to happen with Jones/Machida either, so pitting Henderson and Evans against each other could create a situation where there are not enough viable contenders for a large portion of the year. Besides, Dan is getting to the age where he won’t have very many runs at the title left in him. A fight between the crafty veteran with the nuclear right hand coming off a legendary fight and either the dominant young champ or the enigmatic karate master seems like it would be an easy fight to sell people on. While he would have to be considered an underdog against both men, after the year he’s had I wouldn’t count him out against any opponent.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: I think that Shogun proved a lot in this fight, mainly that he was clearly nowhere near physically ready for the Jon Jones fight this past March. In that fight, his body betrayed his heart and he could barely move. In the Henderson fight, he kept coming forward and fighting. He even showed some of the grappling that I discussed before the Jones fight, utilizing great trip takedowns and working for a rear naked choke and nearly ending the fight with a heel hook. Rampage Jackson originally wanted to fight Rua at UFC 144 in Japan this February, but Shogun looks like he is going to be too busted up to fight that soon. It’s a shame, as I would really like to see that fight. The fight I would go with is against the winner of Tito Ortiz and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. I originally thought that the winner of that fight should go against Stephan Bonnar, but it appears there is another fight in the works for “The American Psycho.” Putting Shogun against Nogueira or Ortiz provides him a resilient name opponent that he should be able to defeat while the rest of the top level fighters in the division sort themselves out. Other than that, there aren’t really any other interesting fights available to him. It seems like everyone else around him in the rankings has an upcoming fight.
That’s it for Part 1 of the UFC 139 recap. I’ll discuss the rest of the card and its winners tomorrow.
Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua waged an absolute war against each other. It was the type of fight that has to rank highly in the pantheon of great fights in the sport’s history; the heart, damage taken, and brutality unleashed by each man would have been enough to stop another fighter in their tracks. Instead, this went a full twenty-five minutes and set the bar for five round non-title main events impossibly high for any others to follow.
The fact that Henderson won a unanimous decision or that I and many others scored it a draw is immaterial. When two fighters put on the type of performance displayed in their bout, no one really loses. Both men really gain in the eyes of the fans. They each took the best of what the other had to offer and were still standing at the end, albeit with the help of their respective cornermen.
My fiancee’s brother often watches the fights with us and while he doesn’t seem to mind them, this had to be the first fight that I ever heard him openly state he enjoyed. If I recall correctly, he said it was the best he had seen and it seemed to make him a fan of both men. That is the essence of a great fight. For me, I’ve watched hundreds of fights over the years and I would be hard pressed to name more than a few fights that are in the same class as this one. There are fights with big knockouts, submissions, or comebacks, but in terms of fights that go the distance or close to it, you can’t do much better than this one.
In the first round, Shogun looked like he was dead meat after reeling from one of Hendo’s massive right hands. Somehow he responded by dropping Henderson. In the second round, Shogun looked to be on weary legs as he fought his way through more of Hendo’s massive bombs. By the halfway point of the fight, Shogun was on the ground in the turtle position in an attempt to avoid having his skull plastered to the mat from Hendo’s hammerfists. It was at this moment I thought the fight was going to be stopped, but somehow Rua responded with a heel hook that nearly caught Hendo. In the fourth round Shogun caught Henderson with a right that put him on spaghetti legs, but somehow he couldn’t get the finish. In the fifth, it was a stunning display of dominance as Shogun had Henderson mounted and rained down blows for the entirety of the round. It was a tremendous display of strength by the obviously gassed Henderson to avoid a TKO or submission loss in the last two rounds after spending so much energy and power pounding on Shogun through the first three. For Shogun the fact he made it to the end, much less finished strongly after taking an absolute beating in the beginning of the fight was just unbelievable. I said it already, but the onslaught both men dished out would have finished any other fighter. This isn’t an exaggeration either. I don’t care if you’re Jon Jones or Anderson Silva. No human being could endure the punishment they went through. If you haven’t seen this fight you need to do so immediately.
I wrote last week that I was looking forward to this fight and expected it to be great. I certainly didn’t expect to witness the best fight I’ve ever seen live. It was reminiscent of the wars both men were capable of in PRIDE, the only difference being that PRIDE ended five years ago and Henderson is now 41, while Shogun has been fighting on bad knees for years. I didn’t think that Shogun was capable of having a fight on par with the one he had against Little Nogueira in 2005 and I didn’t think any human being could survive the barrage Rua lets fly when he goes for the kill like Hendo did.
People calling for an immediate rematch between the two are crazy. After this fight, they shouldn’t face off again unless it is for a title. Besides, there is no way that a second fight can possibly top this one. Fans should just appreciate this fight and what they went through rather than expect more. Of course, it appears that even Shogun wants to do it again, so shows what I know. With that being said, what should come next for Hendo and Rua?
Dan Henderson: Has Hendo’s value ever been higher? And has he ever enjoyed a better twelve month span in his career? He’s gone from being considered done as an elite fighter after losing to Jake Shields in his Strikeforce debut to having a legitimate claim as the number two light heavyweight in the world. It is clear that 205 lbs. is where Hendo should be. I’ve heard some people calling for him to take on Rashad Evans in a title eliminator, but I think that Henderson’s next fight should be for the title. Evans was unable to compete at UFC 140 due to an injury, but wants to fight again rather than wait for the title shot. He’ll be ready in the next few months to fight, but Hendo certainly won’t. No one knows what is going to happen with Jones/Machida either, so pitting Henderson and Evans against each other could create a situation where there are not enough viable contenders for a large portion of the year. Besides, Dan is getting to the age where he won’t have very many runs at the title left in him. A fight between the crafty veteran with the nuclear right hand coming off a legendary fight and either the dominant young champ or the enigmatic karate master seems like it would be an easy fight to sell people on. While he would have to be considered an underdog against both men, after the year he’s had I wouldn’t count him out against any opponent.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: I think that Shogun proved a lot in this fight, mainly that he was clearly nowhere near physically ready for the Jon Jones fight this past March. In that fight, his body betrayed his heart and he could barely move. In the Henderson fight, he kept coming forward and fighting. He even showed some of the grappling that I discussed before the Jones fight, utilizing great trip takedowns and working for a rear naked choke and nearly ending the fight with a heel hook. Rampage Jackson originally wanted to fight Rua at UFC 144 in Japan this February, but Shogun looks like he is going to be too busted up to fight that soon. It’s a shame, as I would really like to see that fight. The fight I would go with is against the winner of Tito Ortiz and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. I originally thought that the winner of that fight should go against Stephan Bonnar, but it appears there is another fight in the works for “The American Psycho.” Putting Shogun against Nogueira or Ortiz provides him a resilient name opponent that he should be able to defeat while the rest of the top level fighters in the division sort themselves out. Other than that, there aren’t really any other interesting fights available to him. It seems like everyone else around him in the rankings has an upcoming fight.
That’s it for Part 1 of the UFC 139 recap. I’ll discuss the rest of the card and its winners tomorrow.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
The UFC Needs to Act Fast/Is GSP Scared of Anderson Silva?
The Biggest Fight of All-Time
Last weekend Manny Pacquiao won a decision which was described across all media outlets as “controversial” over Juan Marquez to retain his WBO Welterweight Championship. Pacquiao, boxing’s biggest star, had to win in order to keep the sport relevant. Had he lost, all hopes for a superfight with undefeated Floyd Mayweather would have been scrapped. Promoters have been trying to put that fight together for years since they are the two best boxers in the world and a fight between them is the only truly interesting thing left in the boxing world. If Marquez won, all hopes for boxing’s biggest fight would have died. Of course for the UFC the situation is nowhere near as dire since they’re going to be around for a long time, but they should take note of this and realize that time is running out for them to do the biggest fight in the history of mixed martial arts.
The consensus top two fighters in the world for the last several years, and maybe of all time, have been middleweight king Anderson Silva and welterweight king Georges St-Pierre. Both men have dominated their division and have been at the top of the UFC for years but rather than fight each other they are defending their belts next year; Silva in a rematch against Chael Sonnen and St-Pierre against Nick Diaz. After these fights there is nothing else left for these two in their respective divisions. At UFC 100 over two years ago the idea of pitting these two against each other was floated around. Earlier this year Dana White said he was going to have to do this fight since it was the biggest thing the UFC could do. He was right then, but hasn’t seemed to press the issue since. Now the UFC is in quite the pickle next year.
Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva last year, until Silva pulled off perhaps the greatest submission in UFC history in the fights final moments to retain his championship. Regardless of Silva going into the fight with a rib injury and Sonnen being juiced, it was a close call for the middleweight champ. There’s always the chance that Sonnen’s performance wasn’t a one-time thing and there’s a chance he could beat Silva. As for St-Pierre, he is going up against a tough opponent in Nick Diaz. GSP isn’t mentally strong, as evidenced by him losing his mind when he got punched in the eye against Jake Shields or pulled his groin against Thiago Alves and needed Greg Jackson to calm him down. Ever since Matt Serra knocked him out, GSP has been afraid to go after people and finish them and instead grinds out boring decisions. Diaz talks a lot of trash and taunts, and there’s a chance that could get in GSP’s head and cost him.
If either one of them lose next year, the selling point for their fight is lost. It isn’t two champions – the two best in the world – going face to face. Another issue the UFC faces is the public cries for a match up of Silva and Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. The main reason this fight shouldn’t happen is the fact Jones hasn’t cleared out the light heavyweights and cemented his spot as the top guy. With challenges in Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Phil Davis, and the inevitable arrival of Muhammad Lawal, Jones still has some tests to pass. Silva and St. Pierre have been at the top of their divisions for years while Jones has only been there a few months with just one title defense under his belt.
Assuming they both win their next defenses, Silva and GSP must fight each other and it has to happen soon. Silva is getting older and is bound to lose some of the sharp skill that has kept him on top for so long, and GSP desperately needs to fight somebody who will put his back against the wall and make him bring out his best. GSP has been far from his best these last couple years since he fights to not lose rather than win. In fact, the biggest reason this fight may not happen is Georges St-Pierre.
Is GSP Afraid?
People have mused that GSP won’t take a Silva fight because he is scared of what might happen. GSP has come out and said he isn’t afraid to fight anybody but the theory is still worth picking apart. As mentioned above, GSP does get overwhelmed during fights. He panics if he’s hurt and he has fought as safe as possible ever since he regained his championship following the embarrassing loss to Matt Serra. He gets himself all worked up and tries so hard to just not lose. He grinds out boring decisions and that’s a game plan that won’t work against Anderson Silva. GSP has said he doesn’t know if he’ll take the fight because Silva is so big, but that doesn’t really hold up once you dig a little deeper.
If the two were to fight it would most likely be at a catch-weight of something like 180 pounds or maybe a little less. Silva has said he’d be willing to cut the weight, but GSP says he isn’t sure since he’s not big enough. GSP walks around at about 195 and cuts to 170, then comes into a fight around 185-190. His defense against fighting Silva is based on Silva’s walking weight between fights. GSP is training year round so he’s always in that 195 or a little more weight range. Silva lets himself go between fights and balloons up to about 230 then cuts to 185 when it is fight time. Weight cuts for Silva are nothing, as evidenced by him being at 185 nearly a week before he fought Yushin Okami this year. When he goes into a fight he doesn’t put back on much more weight and only weighs somewhere in the 190s.
If they were to do the fight at a catch-weight below 185, they would weigh nearly the same on fight night. After that the size differences aren’t that major. Silva’s reach is 77.5 to GSP’s 76. Silva is 6’2” while GSP is 5’10”. These are not alarming size disparities. Rashad Evans wants to fight Jon Jones and Jones is nearly half a foot taller than him and has almost a foot on him in terms of reach. Randy Couture fought guys like Tim Sylvia and Sylvia had five inches in reach and stood seven inches taller than him. Not to mention the fact Sylvia weighed like 40 pounds more than him. Couture fought Brock Lesnar, who used to have to cut weight to make heavyweight while Randy was undersized for the weight, so there was a nearly 60 pound weight difference between the two. GSP is not as overmatched as he makes it seem considering many fighters have taken more challenging match ups. Randy Couture was probably the greatest fighter of all time before Silva began this run and Couture never shied away from a fight because somebody would weigh a little more than him.
GSP’s coach has recently floated the idea of him dropping down to 155 but that is completely ridiculous. For one, he’d clear out the division since he’d be huge and it wouldn’t even be fun to watch. Second, he’s had two years to prepare for a Silva fight and to drop down in weight suddenly makes it seem like he might have some doubts about how a Silva fight would go. GSP and his camp fail to realize that wrestlers give Silva problems and he has the best wrestling in the history of mixed martial arts. If anybody was to come at Silva and wrestle him down and wear him out it could be GSP. But it seems unlikely we’ll ever know because Georges has his own worries.
St-Pierre isn’t receptive to the idea of a fight with Anderson Silva because he knows that mentally it would be too much for him to handle. Silva breaks opponents’ wills. Yushin Okami is one of the mentally toughest fighters in the sport and had never been knocked out, but Silva broke his spirit in a matter of moments. He put his hands at his side and dared Okami to punch him and Okami got too afraid to bother swinging since he knew Silva would just take the punch without reacting to it and counter with his own hard right. Forrest Griffin is a meticulous game planner who for years boasted that you could put him in the octagon with anybody and he’d make it an interesting fight. Silva broke his spirit in one round and Griffin hasn’t looked like he’s wanted to fight again since. Silva put his hands down, dodged strikes like he was in The Matrix, dared Forrest to hit him, then knocked him out. Griffin ran out of the cage in embarrassment.
GSP was in attendance when Silva spent the first three rounds of his fight against Demian Maia taunting and dancing, trying to psych him out. GSP panics if he’s hit hard, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’d be psyched out by watching somebody do the Jakal Dance mid-fight. Silva is a man who put on a Jabbawockeez mask and got in Vitor Belfort’s face to psych him out. He did that that Matrix-style dodging against Rich Franklin too. Silva toys with people and makes them feel foolish for stepping into the cage with him. As if submitting Chael Sonnen in the fight’s final moments wasn’t enough, Silva put on his black belt and bowed in front of Sonnen just to mess with him.
St-Pierre can say size is the biggest obstacle in the way of a fight with Anderson Silva, but fighters with less talent than GSP have fought bigger people. St-Pierre should realize immediately that he’s bigger than BJ Penn and BJ wasn’t afraid to fight. All of these boring decisions are hurting GSP’s legacy. He should realize that if he beats Silva, people will say he is the best ever and if he loses people will say that he simply lost to a fighter much bigger than him. GSP says he wants to go down as the best ever. Does it mean more for your legacy if you grind out boring decisions on fighters in a weight where you aren’t challenged, or if you step up and fight the consensus pound for pound king of the sport? The outcome is secondary, the simple fact that GSP would take the fight shows that he is ready for any challenge and isn’t afraid of anybody.
Last weekend Manny Pacquiao won a decision which was described across all media outlets as “controversial” over Juan Marquez to retain his WBO Welterweight Championship. Pacquiao, boxing’s biggest star, had to win in order to keep the sport relevant. Had he lost, all hopes for a superfight with undefeated Floyd Mayweather would have been scrapped. Promoters have been trying to put that fight together for years since they are the two best boxers in the world and a fight between them is the only truly interesting thing left in the boxing world. If Marquez won, all hopes for boxing’s biggest fight would have died. Of course for the UFC the situation is nowhere near as dire since they’re going to be around for a long time, but they should take note of this and realize that time is running out for them to do the biggest fight in the history of mixed martial arts.
The consensus top two fighters in the world for the last several years, and maybe of all time, have been middleweight king Anderson Silva and welterweight king Georges St-Pierre. Both men have dominated their division and have been at the top of the UFC for years but rather than fight each other they are defending their belts next year; Silva in a rematch against Chael Sonnen and St-Pierre against Nick Diaz. After these fights there is nothing else left for these two in their respective divisions. At UFC 100 over two years ago the idea of pitting these two against each other was floated around. Earlier this year Dana White said he was going to have to do this fight since it was the biggest thing the UFC could do. He was right then, but hasn’t seemed to press the issue since. Now the UFC is in quite the pickle next year.
Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva last year, until Silva pulled off perhaps the greatest submission in UFC history in the fights final moments to retain his championship. Regardless of Silva going into the fight with a rib injury and Sonnen being juiced, it was a close call for the middleweight champ. There’s always the chance that Sonnen’s performance wasn’t a one-time thing and there’s a chance he could beat Silva. As for St-Pierre, he is going up against a tough opponent in Nick Diaz. GSP isn’t mentally strong, as evidenced by him losing his mind when he got punched in the eye against Jake Shields or pulled his groin against Thiago Alves and needed Greg Jackson to calm him down. Ever since Matt Serra knocked him out, GSP has been afraid to go after people and finish them and instead grinds out boring decisions. Diaz talks a lot of trash and taunts, and there’s a chance that could get in GSP’s head and cost him.
If either one of them lose next year, the selling point for their fight is lost. It isn’t two champions – the two best in the world – going face to face. Another issue the UFC faces is the public cries for a match up of Silva and Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. The main reason this fight shouldn’t happen is the fact Jones hasn’t cleared out the light heavyweights and cemented his spot as the top guy. With challenges in Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Phil Davis, and the inevitable arrival of Muhammad Lawal, Jones still has some tests to pass. Silva and St. Pierre have been at the top of their divisions for years while Jones has only been there a few months with just one title defense under his belt.
Assuming they both win their next defenses, Silva and GSP must fight each other and it has to happen soon. Silva is getting older and is bound to lose some of the sharp skill that has kept him on top for so long, and GSP desperately needs to fight somebody who will put his back against the wall and make him bring out his best. GSP has been far from his best these last couple years since he fights to not lose rather than win. In fact, the biggest reason this fight may not happen is Georges St-Pierre.
Is GSP Afraid?
People have mused that GSP won’t take a Silva fight because he is scared of what might happen. GSP has come out and said he isn’t afraid to fight anybody but the theory is still worth picking apart. As mentioned above, GSP does get overwhelmed during fights. He panics if he’s hurt and he has fought as safe as possible ever since he regained his championship following the embarrassing loss to Matt Serra. He gets himself all worked up and tries so hard to just not lose. He grinds out boring decisions and that’s a game plan that won’t work against Anderson Silva. GSP has said he doesn’t know if he’ll take the fight because Silva is so big, but that doesn’t really hold up once you dig a little deeper.
If the two were to fight it would most likely be at a catch-weight of something like 180 pounds or maybe a little less. Silva has said he’d be willing to cut the weight, but GSP says he isn’t sure since he’s not big enough. GSP walks around at about 195 and cuts to 170, then comes into a fight around 185-190. His defense against fighting Silva is based on Silva’s walking weight between fights. GSP is training year round so he’s always in that 195 or a little more weight range. Silva lets himself go between fights and balloons up to about 230 then cuts to 185 when it is fight time. Weight cuts for Silva are nothing, as evidenced by him being at 185 nearly a week before he fought Yushin Okami this year. When he goes into a fight he doesn’t put back on much more weight and only weighs somewhere in the 190s.
If they were to do the fight at a catch-weight below 185, they would weigh nearly the same on fight night. After that the size differences aren’t that major. Silva’s reach is 77.5 to GSP’s 76. Silva is 6’2” while GSP is 5’10”. These are not alarming size disparities. Rashad Evans wants to fight Jon Jones and Jones is nearly half a foot taller than him and has almost a foot on him in terms of reach. Randy Couture fought guys like Tim Sylvia and Sylvia had five inches in reach and stood seven inches taller than him. Not to mention the fact Sylvia weighed like 40 pounds more than him. Couture fought Brock Lesnar, who used to have to cut weight to make heavyweight while Randy was undersized for the weight, so there was a nearly 60 pound weight difference between the two. GSP is not as overmatched as he makes it seem considering many fighters have taken more challenging match ups. Randy Couture was probably the greatest fighter of all time before Silva began this run and Couture never shied away from a fight because somebody would weigh a little more than him.
GSP’s coach has recently floated the idea of him dropping down to 155 but that is completely ridiculous. For one, he’d clear out the division since he’d be huge and it wouldn’t even be fun to watch. Second, he’s had two years to prepare for a Silva fight and to drop down in weight suddenly makes it seem like he might have some doubts about how a Silva fight would go. GSP and his camp fail to realize that wrestlers give Silva problems and he has the best wrestling in the history of mixed martial arts. If anybody was to come at Silva and wrestle him down and wear him out it could be GSP. But it seems unlikely we’ll ever know because Georges has his own worries.
St-Pierre isn’t receptive to the idea of a fight with Anderson Silva because he knows that mentally it would be too much for him to handle. Silva breaks opponents’ wills. Yushin Okami is one of the mentally toughest fighters in the sport and had never been knocked out, but Silva broke his spirit in a matter of moments. He put his hands at his side and dared Okami to punch him and Okami got too afraid to bother swinging since he knew Silva would just take the punch without reacting to it and counter with his own hard right. Forrest Griffin is a meticulous game planner who for years boasted that you could put him in the octagon with anybody and he’d make it an interesting fight. Silva broke his spirit in one round and Griffin hasn’t looked like he’s wanted to fight again since. Silva put his hands down, dodged strikes like he was in The Matrix, dared Forrest to hit him, then knocked him out. Griffin ran out of the cage in embarrassment.
GSP was in attendance when Silva spent the first three rounds of his fight against Demian Maia taunting and dancing, trying to psych him out. GSP panics if he’s hit hard, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’d be psyched out by watching somebody do the Jakal Dance mid-fight. Silva is a man who put on a Jabbawockeez mask and got in Vitor Belfort’s face to psych him out. He did that that Matrix-style dodging against Rich Franklin too. Silva toys with people and makes them feel foolish for stepping into the cage with him. As if submitting Chael Sonnen in the fight’s final moments wasn’t enough, Silva put on his black belt and bowed in front of Sonnen just to mess with him.
St-Pierre can say size is the biggest obstacle in the way of a fight with Anderson Silva, but fighters with less talent than GSP have fought bigger people. St-Pierre should realize immediately that he’s bigger than BJ Penn and BJ wasn’t afraid to fight. All of these boring decisions are hurting GSP’s legacy. He should realize that if he beats Silva, people will say he is the best ever and if he loses people will say that he simply lost to a fighter much bigger than him. GSP says he wants to go down as the best ever. Does it mean more for your legacy if you grind out boring decisions on fighters in a weight where you aren’t challenged, or if you step up and fight the consensus pound for pound king of the sport? The outcome is secondary, the simple fact that GSP would take the fight shows that he is ready for any challenge and isn’t afraid of anybody.
UFC 139 Predictions
This Saturday ends another autumn streak of UFC shows with UFC 139, the fourth weekend in a row of fights. Late September/early October had a similar run and it is alternately awesome and tiring (and expensive). I said this about UFC 137 and it turned out to be incorrect, but this should be an exciting night of fights. It’s headlined by a battle between top 5 light heavyweights and PRIDE veterans Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson in what could establish the next number one contender for the title. The co-main event is an interesting fight between fading star Wanderlei Silva and karate expert Cung Le. The other fights on the main card all look to have the potential to be entertaining as well. Let’s delve into them.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Bonnar is a journeyman fighter still hanging around due to his performance in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. Kingsbury is a younger guy that lost in like the eighth season of that show. This fight doesn’t really have much relevance, but I assume the goal is to get Kingsbury a win over a ‘name’ opponent to establish him at light heavyweight or get Bonnar into a fight after nearly a year off. Kingsbury’s resume doesn’t seem too impressive and Bonnar is usually a pretty tough out who is usually in fairly entertaining scraps. I’m going to say that Bonnar wins by decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: This welterweight bout features two fighter who could conceivably be two to three fights away from title contention. Kampmann is coming off two consecutive controversial decision losses while Story is coming off a loss to Charlie Brenneman that ended a six fight winning streak. This is very much a “striker vs. grappler” match, with Kampmann being the kickboxer and Story being the wrestler. I like Kampmann, but I don’t recall him having particularly strong takedown defense and Story was able to take down Thiago Alves fairly easily. This one could be dull if it is just takedown, takedown, takedown. Story by decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This is likely a title eliminator, with the winner getting another shot at Dominick Cruz’s Bantamweight Title at some point next year. A Faber win would be better for business, but I don’t know that either man can beat Cruz. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bowles fight but I do know his only loss is to Cruz. I didn’t think Faber looked particularly impressive in his fight against Eddie Wineland and was too tentative against Cruz. I will probably cheer for Faber since he’s pretty likeable, but I think it is going to be Bowles by decision.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This fight was originally supposed to be Vitor Belfort taking on Cung Le, but he withdrew due to injury. The UFC fans buying the show may not be familiar with the 39 year old Le, but the live audience in San Jose will love him because of his affiliation with Strikeforce since its days as a regional promotion in the area. Le only has 9 (8-1 record) fights to his record and each one of them has ended by a knockout. This one should be no different. Popular opinion seems to be that Wand’s aggression will be too much for Le, who needs to set up and establish range and distance in order to employ his style of Shan Shou karate. I love Wanderlei and his willingness to throw down, but he doesn’t have a chin against guys with knockout abilities. While seeing Wanderlei revert to his PRIDE days and beast on someone would be incredible and he deserves an exciting win in what has been a poor showing for him in his UFC career, I don’t think it happens. I think Le stays away from Wand’s wild flurries throughout the first and settles in in the second. At that time, it will be Cung Le by 2nd Round KO.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: I am ridiculously excited for this fight. Hendo always seems to bring it when he fights at light heavyweight (much more so than at middleweight) and Shogun never phones it in. This one is going to come down to whether or not Shogun can get him early and if his knees are repaired enough for him to potentially make it through a war of attrition. We know Henderson can go five rounds; Rua’s endurance is questionable due to the poor condition of his knees. If he is limping or dragging his legs, Hendo will just wear him down and win a decision. If he can strike early and pounce, it could be Shogun’s night. I don’t think Rua can win a decision unless he is lights out in the first three rounds. His cardio isn’t as solid as Hendo’s. I tend to think that Rua will put on a gutsy performance and have some moments early on, but Henderson will weather the storm like he does (he is damn nigh impossible to finish) and will use some of his clinch work and wrestling to wear down Rua and either win a decision or finish late. Either way, I expect it to be a pretty good fight. Henderson by 4th round TKO.
There you have it. Feel free to leave your picks here or on facebook.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Bonnar is a journeyman fighter still hanging around due to his performance in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. Kingsbury is a younger guy that lost in like the eighth season of that show. This fight doesn’t really have much relevance, but I assume the goal is to get Kingsbury a win over a ‘name’ opponent to establish him at light heavyweight or get Bonnar into a fight after nearly a year off. Kingsbury’s resume doesn’t seem too impressive and Bonnar is usually a pretty tough out who is usually in fairly entertaining scraps. I’m going to say that Bonnar wins by decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: This welterweight bout features two fighter who could conceivably be two to three fights away from title contention. Kampmann is coming off two consecutive controversial decision losses while Story is coming off a loss to Charlie Brenneman that ended a six fight winning streak. This is very much a “striker vs. grappler” match, with Kampmann being the kickboxer and Story being the wrestler. I like Kampmann, but I don’t recall him having particularly strong takedown defense and Story was able to take down Thiago Alves fairly easily. This one could be dull if it is just takedown, takedown, takedown. Story by decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This is likely a title eliminator, with the winner getting another shot at Dominick Cruz’s Bantamweight Title at some point next year. A Faber win would be better for business, but I don’t know that either man can beat Cruz. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bowles fight but I do know his only loss is to Cruz. I didn’t think Faber looked particularly impressive in his fight against Eddie Wineland and was too tentative against Cruz. I will probably cheer for Faber since he’s pretty likeable, but I think it is going to be Bowles by decision.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This fight was originally supposed to be Vitor Belfort taking on Cung Le, but he withdrew due to injury. The UFC fans buying the show may not be familiar with the 39 year old Le, but the live audience in San Jose will love him because of his affiliation with Strikeforce since its days as a regional promotion in the area. Le only has 9 (8-1 record) fights to his record and each one of them has ended by a knockout. This one should be no different. Popular opinion seems to be that Wand’s aggression will be too much for Le, who needs to set up and establish range and distance in order to employ his style of Shan Shou karate. I love Wanderlei and his willingness to throw down, but he doesn’t have a chin against guys with knockout abilities. While seeing Wanderlei revert to his PRIDE days and beast on someone would be incredible and he deserves an exciting win in what has been a poor showing for him in his UFC career, I don’t think it happens. I think Le stays away from Wand’s wild flurries throughout the first and settles in in the second. At that time, it will be Cung Le by 2nd Round KO.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: I am ridiculously excited for this fight. Hendo always seems to bring it when he fights at light heavyweight (much more so than at middleweight) and Shogun never phones it in. This one is going to come down to whether or not Shogun can get him early and if his knees are repaired enough for him to potentially make it through a war of attrition. We know Henderson can go five rounds; Rua’s endurance is questionable due to the poor condition of his knees. If he is limping or dragging his legs, Hendo will just wear him down and win a decision. If he can strike early and pounce, it could be Shogun’s night. I don’t think Rua can win a decision unless he is lights out in the first three rounds. His cardio isn’t as solid as Hendo’s. I tend to think that Rua will put on a gutsy performance and have some moments early on, but Henderson will weather the storm like he does (he is damn nigh impossible to finish) and will use some of his clinch work and wrestling to wear down Rua and either win a decision or finish late. Either way, I expect it to be a pretty good fight. Henderson by 4th round TKO.
There you have it. Feel free to leave your picks here or on facebook.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Victory in Defeat and Victory in Victory: Two Nights in the Career of Dan Henderson
Dan Henderson is a legend in the sport of MMA. He’s faced off against nearly every legendary name that has mattered in the past decade, with the exception of his close friend and former trainer Randy Couture and his upcoming UFC 139 opponent Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. His most noteworthy accomplishment is being the only man to hold two titles in different weight classes concurrently, when he held both the PRIDE 185 lbs. and 205 lbs. titles. As great as that run was, which was highlighted by Hendo advancing the decline of Wanderlei Silva, the most intriguing part of Dan Henderson’s career has been his willingness to foray into the heavyweight waters despite being incredibly undersized for that division.
The first trip into the heavyweight division was at PRIDE 24: Cold Fury 3 on December 23, 2002. The opponent was PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight was originally booked as Nogueira against the rising heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko, but Fedor pulled out on two weeks’ notice due to an injury. Stepping in as the surprise replacement was Henderson. For anyone to come in against Nogueira on such short notice was akin to having a death wish. At this time Nogueira was a world beater, coming in on a nearly three year winning streak over heavyweight titans like Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, the monstrous Bob Sapp, and Semmy Schilt. Henderson was coming into the fight off a split decision win over Murilo “Ninja” Rua and a split decision loss to Ricardo Arona. He would also be giving up around forty pounds, as he weighed in at 195 lbs. to Nogueira’s 235 lbs. The combination of Nogueira’s submission skills (having submitted nine of his last twelve opponents) and size were figured to overwhelm Henderson.
What happened instead was stunning. Not only did Henderson not go away easily, he held his own for the bulk of the fight. In the first round, Henderson managed to wobble Nogueira with his vaunted overhand right. While he couldn’t stop Nogueira’s takedowns, he shocked the fans in attendance by working and fighting his way out of Nogueira’s submission attempts. Eventually, Nogueira’s size advantage proved to be too much and Henderson succumbed to an armbar in the third and final round. Even though he lost the fight, Dan Henderson gained a great deal of respect. Aside from his decision win against Heath Herring two years before, no one had pushed Noguiera into the last round and certainly no one withstood the amount of submission attempts Minotauro threw out there. Coming in on such short notice and pushing the world’s best heavyweight while competing at a weight befitting the next down and lasting as long as he did showed everyone that Dan Henderson was no easy out, no matter the circumstances.
Fast forward eight and a half years to July 30, 2011. Dan Henderson has been on a renaissance of sorts in Strikeforce, winning the promotion’s light heavyweight crown. With a lack of contenders and a need for big fights, Strikeforce presented Henderson with a fight he had suggested when he signed with the company in 2009: the legendary Fedor Emelianenko. While some of the luster was lost on this fight due to Fedor coming off back to back losses after having not legitimately lost a fight in his entire ten year career, it was still an intriguing match-up. Fedor was viewed as the favorite partly due to his legendary career and also due to the fact that he would be weighing close to 230 lbs. compared to 206 lbs. for Henderson. This difference would effectively nullify the strongest part of Dan’s game, the clinch. Coming into the fight Fedor had only been stopped by submission and a doctor stoppage, which meant some doubts were cast as to whether Hendo’s nuclear missile of a right could put him down.
Fans who tuned into this fight were treated to one of the wildest first rounds in MMA this year. Both men threw caution to the wind and went at it in a wild slugfest. Fedor struck first, dazing Henderson with one of his trademark looping hooks. Henderson recovered however and dropped the advancing Fedor with a left uppercut and landed several unanswered blows, prompting referee Herb Dean to stop the fight with less than 50 seconds in the round.
With the finish, Dan Henderson earned the biggest win of his entire career and continued his improbable run at 205 lbs. If he manages to beat Mauricio Rua at UFC 139 a shot at either Anderson Silva’s middleweight belt or Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title could be on the horizon. Whether its a rematch with the greatest fighter of all time or a battle with the new, physically dominant future of the sport, Dan Henderson will again have to play the giant killer.
The first trip into the heavyweight division was at PRIDE 24: Cold Fury 3 on December 23, 2002. The opponent was PRIDE Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight was originally booked as Nogueira against the rising heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko, but Fedor pulled out on two weeks’ notice due to an injury. Stepping in as the surprise replacement was Henderson. For anyone to come in against Nogueira on such short notice was akin to having a death wish. At this time Nogueira was a world beater, coming in on a nearly three year winning streak over heavyweight titans like Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, the monstrous Bob Sapp, and Semmy Schilt. Henderson was coming into the fight off a split decision win over Murilo “Ninja” Rua and a split decision loss to Ricardo Arona. He would also be giving up around forty pounds, as he weighed in at 195 lbs. to Nogueira’s 235 lbs. The combination of Nogueira’s submission skills (having submitted nine of his last twelve opponents) and size were figured to overwhelm Henderson.
What happened instead was stunning. Not only did Henderson not go away easily, he held his own for the bulk of the fight. In the first round, Henderson managed to wobble Nogueira with his vaunted overhand right. While he couldn’t stop Nogueira’s takedowns, he shocked the fans in attendance by working and fighting his way out of Nogueira’s submission attempts. Eventually, Nogueira’s size advantage proved to be too much and Henderson succumbed to an armbar in the third and final round. Even though he lost the fight, Dan Henderson gained a great deal of respect. Aside from his decision win against Heath Herring two years before, no one had pushed Noguiera into the last round and certainly no one withstood the amount of submission attempts Minotauro threw out there. Coming in on such short notice and pushing the world’s best heavyweight while competing at a weight befitting the next down and lasting as long as he did showed everyone that Dan Henderson was no easy out, no matter the circumstances.
Fast forward eight and a half years to July 30, 2011. Dan Henderson has been on a renaissance of sorts in Strikeforce, winning the promotion’s light heavyweight crown. With a lack of contenders and a need for big fights, Strikeforce presented Henderson with a fight he had suggested when he signed with the company in 2009: the legendary Fedor Emelianenko. While some of the luster was lost on this fight due to Fedor coming off back to back losses after having not legitimately lost a fight in his entire ten year career, it was still an intriguing match-up. Fedor was viewed as the favorite partly due to his legendary career and also due to the fact that he would be weighing close to 230 lbs. compared to 206 lbs. for Henderson. This difference would effectively nullify the strongest part of Dan’s game, the clinch. Coming into the fight Fedor had only been stopped by submission and a doctor stoppage, which meant some doubts were cast as to whether Hendo’s nuclear missile of a right could put him down.
Fans who tuned into this fight were treated to one of the wildest first rounds in MMA this year. Both men threw caution to the wind and went at it in a wild slugfest. Fedor struck first, dazing Henderson with one of his trademark looping hooks. Henderson recovered however and dropped the advancing Fedor with a left uppercut and landed several unanswered blows, prompting referee Herb Dean to stop the fight with less than 50 seconds in the round.
With the finish, Dan Henderson earned the biggest win of his entire career and continued his improbable run at 205 lbs. If he manages to beat Mauricio Rua at UFC 139 a shot at either Anderson Silva’s middleweight belt or Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title could be on the horizon. Whether its a rematch with the greatest fighter of all time or a battle with the new, physically dominant future of the sport, Dan Henderson will again have to play the giant killer.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
2005: The Year Shogun Rua Was The Baddest Man In The Land
Current UFC fans know Mauricio “Shogun” Rua as the foil for Lyoto Machida and as one of the fighters to push Chuck Liddell into retirement. He has often been described as a deadly striker and one of the best in the world, but his record in the UFC has been a pedestrian 4-3 (but one bad decision away from 5-2). While the killer instinct is still there, his knees are not and fans are instead treated to a solid light heavyweight instead of the beast that was advertised upon his arrival to the UFC in 2007. For people who want to see that they need to go back to the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix, when Shogun Rua was the most lethal fighter on the planet.
One of the greatest things about PRIDE FC was their annual tournaments. It started in 2000 with the Heavyweight Grand Prix won by Mark Coleman and became even more popular with the 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix won by Wanderlei Silva. With the 2003 tournament being such a success, in 2005 PRIDE went back to the middleweight (205 lbs.) division for that year’s Grand Prix. This year’s incarnation featured top name fighters such as PRIDE Middleweight Champion and reigning Grand Prix winner Wanderlei Silva, his blood rival Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Dan Henderson, Ricardo Arona, Alistair Overeem, the UFC’s Vitor Belfort, and the upstart Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. While Silva was the top dog in the division at the time, his 24 year old Chute Boxe teammate Rua was ripping through the ranks and a lot of the pre-tournament hype centered on a potential fight between these two. For that to happen, both men would have to make it through some fierce competition and advance to the finals of the Grand Prix.
Shogun’s first opponent was Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, who was coming off a controversial split decision loss to Shogun’s brother Murilo “Ninja” Rua and a vicious second round knock out loss to Silva in his second attempt to claim the Middleweight Title. It would not take two rounds for Rampage to meet the same fate against Shogun. From the onset, Rua unloaded with punches and vicious Muay Thai kicks that broke Jackson’s ribs early in the fight. After about four minutes of fighting Rampage was curled up in the corner of the ring, where he ate multiple soccer kicks to the face and chest before the referee put a stop to the fight. Never before had Rampage been beaten so violently and so easily. At the time, it was the biggest win of Shogun’s young career and it established him as a force to be reckoned with.
If the Jackson fight showed that Shogun’s striking was effective against even top level wrestlers, his next fight showed his stamina, ability to withstand punishment, and mix up his offense in a fight. Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira was also undefeated in PRIDE heading into this second round match with Shogun. His opening opponent was the dangerous Dan Henderson, who he submitted by an armbar in the first round. The battle between Rua and Nogueira would be not only the best fight of the entire Grand Prix, but one of the greatest brawls of all time.
The first round of this fight is arguably the greatest first round in the history of MMA. It marked the first time Shogun had ever been knocked down, coming after a hard right from Minotoro. Shogun unveiled an ability to utilize clinch takedowns, which he did throughout the fight. Once he got Minotoro on the ground, he attempted his vaunted foot stomps and soccer kicks, which Nogueira was able to somehow withstand. After three rounds of back and forth action that saw both men rocked by massive blows, takedowns, and submission attempts and escapes, Shogun Rua advanced with a unanimous decision victory.
After the hard fought victory over Nogueira, Rua faced a new test in the 6’5” monster Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem. Overeem had decisively won his fights against Vitor Belfort and Igor Vovchanchyn by utilizing the guillotine choke in the first round in both. With his submission skills and highly regarded kickboxing, Overeem came into this fight looking like a worldbeater. Unfortunately for Overeem, his dominating run came to an end. Shogun withstood the early offense from the Demolition Man with little damage before he unleashed a barrage of strikes. It culminated with Rua sitting on top of Overeem’s chest unloading hammerfists to the face. It prompted a TKO stoppage at 6:42 of the first round. Rua advanced to the finals of the Grand Prix that took place that same night.
His opponent was Ricardo Arona, who earlier that night defeated Wanderlei Silva by decision. It was Silva’s first loss at 205 lbs. in nearly six years and it only served to highlight the Brazilian rivalry between Silva and Rua’s Chute Boxe camp and Arona’s Brazilian Top Team. Despite Silva’s stunning defeat, the night would still belong to Chute Boxe. Arona, like most of Brazilian Top Team, was known for his strong jiu jitsu and grappling. Striking was by far the worst part of his game. Unfortunately for Arona, his fight with Shogun ended up being a stand-up affair. Rua dispatched him in brutal fashion, knocking him out in less than three minutes.
His run through this tournament and continued success in PRIDE over the next two years is the main reason that Rua was considered the top light heavyweight in the world when he came to the UFC. Despite the injuries that have robbed him of the explosiveness he contained during his PRIDE run, Shogun remains a tough out and owner of the best finishing skills of any fighter not named Anderson Silva. At UFC 139 we’ll see if he can put those talents to use one more time when he takes on the always difficult Dan Henderson.
One of the greatest things about PRIDE FC was their annual tournaments. It started in 2000 with the Heavyweight Grand Prix won by Mark Coleman and became even more popular with the 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix won by Wanderlei Silva. With the 2003 tournament being such a success, in 2005 PRIDE went back to the middleweight (205 lbs.) division for that year’s Grand Prix. This year’s incarnation featured top name fighters such as PRIDE Middleweight Champion and reigning Grand Prix winner Wanderlei Silva, his blood rival Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Dan Henderson, Ricardo Arona, Alistair Overeem, the UFC’s Vitor Belfort, and the upstart Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. While Silva was the top dog in the division at the time, his 24 year old Chute Boxe teammate Rua was ripping through the ranks and a lot of the pre-tournament hype centered on a potential fight between these two. For that to happen, both men would have to make it through some fierce competition and advance to the finals of the Grand Prix.
Shogun’s first opponent was Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, who was coming off a controversial split decision loss to Shogun’s brother Murilo “Ninja” Rua and a vicious second round knock out loss to Silva in his second attempt to claim the Middleweight Title. It would not take two rounds for Rampage to meet the same fate against Shogun. From the onset, Rua unloaded with punches and vicious Muay Thai kicks that broke Jackson’s ribs early in the fight. After about four minutes of fighting Rampage was curled up in the corner of the ring, where he ate multiple soccer kicks to the face and chest before the referee put a stop to the fight. Never before had Rampage been beaten so violently and so easily. At the time, it was the biggest win of Shogun’s young career and it established him as a force to be reckoned with.
If the Jackson fight showed that Shogun’s striking was effective against even top level wrestlers, his next fight showed his stamina, ability to withstand punishment, and mix up his offense in a fight. Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira was also undefeated in PRIDE heading into this second round match with Shogun. His opening opponent was the dangerous Dan Henderson, who he submitted by an armbar in the first round. The battle between Rua and Nogueira would be not only the best fight of the entire Grand Prix, but one of the greatest brawls of all time.
The first round of this fight is arguably the greatest first round in the history of MMA. It marked the first time Shogun had ever been knocked down, coming after a hard right from Minotoro. Shogun unveiled an ability to utilize clinch takedowns, which he did throughout the fight. Once he got Minotoro on the ground, he attempted his vaunted foot stomps and soccer kicks, which Nogueira was able to somehow withstand. After three rounds of back and forth action that saw both men rocked by massive blows, takedowns, and submission attempts and escapes, Shogun Rua advanced with a unanimous decision victory.
After the hard fought victory over Nogueira, Rua faced a new test in the 6’5” monster Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem. Overeem had decisively won his fights against Vitor Belfort and Igor Vovchanchyn by utilizing the guillotine choke in the first round in both. With his submission skills and highly regarded kickboxing, Overeem came into this fight looking like a worldbeater. Unfortunately for Overeem, his dominating run came to an end. Shogun withstood the early offense from the Demolition Man with little damage before he unleashed a barrage of strikes. It culminated with Rua sitting on top of Overeem’s chest unloading hammerfists to the face. It prompted a TKO stoppage at 6:42 of the first round. Rua advanced to the finals of the Grand Prix that took place that same night.
His opponent was Ricardo Arona, who earlier that night defeated Wanderlei Silva by decision. It was Silva’s first loss at 205 lbs. in nearly six years and it only served to highlight the Brazilian rivalry between Silva and Rua’s Chute Boxe camp and Arona’s Brazilian Top Team. Despite Silva’s stunning defeat, the night would still belong to Chute Boxe. Arona, like most of Brazilian Top Team, was known for his strong jiu jitsu and grappling. Striking was by far the worst part of his game. Unfortunately for Arona, his fight with Shogun ended up being a stand-up affair. Rua dispatched him in brutal fashion, knocking him out in less than three minutes.
His run through this tournament and continued success in PRIDE over the next two years is the main reason that Rua was considered the top light heavyweight in the world when he came to the UFC. Despite the injuries that have robbed him of the explosiveness he contained during his PRIDE run, Shogun remains a tough out and owner of the best finishing skills of any fighter not named Anderson Silva. At UFC 139 we’ll see if he can put those talents to use one more time when he takes on the always difficult Dan Henderson.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
UFC on Fox Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?
Last Saturday was the network television debut of the UFC in the cleverly titled “UFC on Fox.” In the main event, Junior Dos Santos won the Heavyweight Title by crushing Cain Velasquez with a hook and some ground and pound in a total of 64 seconds. On the undercard, Benson Henderson became the number one contender to Frankie Edgar’s Lightweight Title by defeating Clay Guida in a wild three round decision that was only seen by UFC fans loyal enough to seek it out on facebook.
That was the first problem with the telecast. I know that Dana White and the people who made the decision to air only one fight did not expect the main event to end so quickly, but Henderson-Guida was a virtual guarantee to be a fight of the year, much less the night, candidate. It turned out to be one of the best fights of the year and featured striking, grappling, and submissions. In short, it was the type of fight that shows the “mixed” aspect of mixed martial arts and would have provided a great introduction to casual/new watchers of the UFC.
The next problem was the use of Dana White as an analyst. I get that Dana is the most visible face and name for the company and loves the sport, but he is a promoter first and invested too much emotionally in the product to provide analysis. His breakdown of the Dos Santos-Velasquez fight was brutal and he ended up burying both men and making them look bad. He absolutely ripped apart Cain’s gameplan and took him to task for not rushing in for takedowns right away and grappling with Dos Santos. The fact is that that doesn’t work as a strategy, just look at when Velasquez chumped Lesnar last year when Brock basically tried that. Also, the fight was only 64 seconds long and Velasquez was using leg kicks to try to set up a takedown. You can’t just takedown someone of Dos Santos’ skillset in the first ten seconds of a fight. His defense is too good and you’ll eat an uppercut for trying to close the distance too poorly. The fact of the matter was that Cain just got caught. Junior threw a great lead jab to the chin and followed it up with a right hook over the top that caught him right around the ear. It wasn’t even something that Cain did wrong; it was just a great offensive boxing combination from Junior. A quick knockout like that doesn’t happen often and I would imagine that if the two were to fight ten more times, that wouldn’t happen again. Dana was upset that the company had invested a lot of time and money pushing Cain into the forefront of the Latino market in hopes of new gains. It was clearly intended to be Velasquez’s coming out party as a star and it ended poorly and in devastating fashion and Dana reacted poorly to it.
Just as bad as that was when he began to discredit Dos Santos. When saying Cain should have went for takedowns, he started ranting about how Junior is known to gas out in the late rounds and that Cain was stupid for not exploiting that. He said this at least twice in a minute and a half. Essentially Dana just said his previous champion was an idiot who lost to an inferior fighter. He completely no sold the fact that Junior is now 8-0 in the UFC and finished the previously undefeated Velasquez. He should have pushed this as “Holy Jesus, just look at how fantastic Junior Dos Santos’ boxing is. He managed to stop a guy that has never lost, much less been finished. He managed to keep Cain from closing the distance for a takedown and absolutely leveled him.” I imagine when he goes back and watches the replay of his analysis, Dana will be disappointed in himself for being too emotionally invested into his promotion of Cain for not adequately promoting Junior’s win, especially coming on the news that ten million of Dos Santos’ native Brazilians saw the fight live. Promotion in Brazil is the next big thing for Zuffa, so what better than a third Brazilian champion?
With that out of the way, let’s get a bit into what happens next for everyone involved in the main and co-main.
Clay Guida: Guida put on an exciting, spirited performance in a losing effort. I don’t know if he’ll get any closer than this to a title shot, but he has nothing to be ashamed of. He lost a close, but clear cut decision because Henderson is just a little better than him at everything and is evidently impervious to takedowns. Guida should get a fight with another top guy, perhaps with Jim Miller or Dennis Siver. Both those guys were close to title shots and a win for one them gets that person one or two fights away from contention. I was going to suggest Gray Maynard, but I think that he would beat Guida pretty decisively and that would push Clay out of the title picture and put Maynard in the “Jon Fitch” zone.
Benson Henderson: Ben Smooth looked outstanding in his takedown defense and ability to get out of submissions. He also displayed a fierce heart and some great offense. He has a date with Frankie Edgar on February 26, when the UFC goes to Japan (!!!). That fight should be absolutely insane and I would expect it to be the best one of the year. Both men have cardio for days and cut a wicked pace. Bendo has takedown defense on par with BJ Penn at his peak, as well as improving stand up that will be tested by Edgar’s solid boxing and wrestling abilities. I cannot wait for this fight.
Cain Velasquez: Not really too much to say about Cain’s performance, as it was such a short fight that one cannot really analyze it too much. I liked the way he was using leg kicks to wear Junior down to set up a takedown later, but (as insightful commentary from ESPN’s Bret Okamoto pointed out) he played Junior’s hands a little. He did this by not moving enough and instead providing a hittable target. A minute of fighting was not enough to get a takedown against someone of Junior’s status, but the leg kicks (I think) would have been effective in the long run if he hadn’t been caught. The thirteen month layoff following rotator cuff surgery couldn’t have helped either, as he came in a little heavier than usual. I imagine he’ll trim down a bit once he gets back into fighting regularly. As for his next opponent, I imagine it will be the loser of Lesnar/Overeem (esp. if its Reem), followed by the winner of Frank Mir/Minotauro Nogueira (esp. if its Mir). I think he beats both of those guys and ends up in a title fight by the end of next year/early 2013. He’s too good to just fall to the wayside and I don’t really see any heavyweight besides Dos Santos (and maybe Overeem if he gets hit and can’t get a takedown) really giving him trouble.
Junior Dos Santos: Junior looked amazing in this fight, especially considering that he tore his meniscus a week and a half before the fight. He threw an excellent left jab-overhand right hook to drop Cain and smartly followed it up immediately to get the finish. His next opponent is the winner of Lesnar/Overeem. If its Lesnar, I imagine it going the same way Junior’s fights with Carwin and Velasquez went. I don’t think Brock can get Junior to the mat easily, especially with such poor striking to set up a takedown. Lesnar also doesn’t respond well to getting hit and the case can be made no one at heavyweight is better at hitting people than Junior Dos Santos. If its Overeem, I think Junior has a tougher time because the Reem is such an excellent kickboxer. But Overeem has been knocked out by Chuck Liddell and Shogun Rua in the past, so someone of Junior’s power can finish him. Either way, it is the fight I would like to see and I think it would be pretty sick.
That’s it for this piece. Stay tuned over the next few days for some articles about Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua, and predictions for UFC 139.
That was the first problem with the telecast. I know that Dana White and the people who made the decision to air only one fight did not expect the main event to end so quickly, but Henderson-Guida was a virtual guarantee to be a fight of the year, much less the night, candidate. It turned out to be one of the best fights of the year and featured striking, grappling, and submissions. In short, it was the type of fight that shows the “mixed” aspect of mixed martial arts and would have provided a great introduction to casual/new watchers of the UFC.
The next problem was the use of Dana White as an analyst. I get that Dana is the most visible face and name for the company and loves the sport, but he is a promoter first and invested too much emotionally in the product to provide analysis. His breakdown of the Dos Santos-Velasquez fight was brutal and he ended up burying both men and making them look bad. He absolutely ripped apart Cain’s gameplan and took him to task for not rushing in for takedowns right away and grappling with Dos Santos. The fact is that that doesn’t work as a strategy, just look at when Velasquez chumped Lesnar last year when Brock basically tried that. Also, the fight was only 64 seconds long and Velasquez was using leg kicks to try to set up a takedown. You can’t just takedown someone of Dos Santos’ skillset in the first ten seconds of a fight. His defense is too good and you’ll eat an uppercut for trying to close the distance too poorly. The fact of the matter was that Cain just got caught. Junior threw a great lead jab to the chin and followed it up with a right hook over the top that caught him right around the ear. It wasn’t even something that Cain did wrong; it was just a great offensive boxing combination from Junior. A quick knockout like that doesn’t happen often and I would imagine that if the two were to fight ten more times, that wouldn’t happen again. Dana was upset that the company had invested a lot of time and money pushing Cain into the forefront of the Latino market in hopes of new gains. It was clearly intended to be Velasquez’s coming out party as a star and it ended poorly and in devastating fashion and Dana reacted poorly to it.
Just as bad as that was when he began to discredit Dos Santos. When saying Cain should have went for takedowns, he started ranting about how Junior is known to gas out in the late rounds and that Cain was stupid for not exploiting that. He said this at least twice in a minute and a half. Essentially Dana just said his previous champion was an idiot who lost to an inferior fighter. He completely no sold the fact that Junior is now 8-0 in the UFC and finished the previously undefeated Velasquez. He should have pushed this as “Holy Jesus, just look at how fantastic Junior Dos Santos’ boxing is. He managed to stop a guy that has never lost, much less been finished. He managed to keep Cain from closing the distance for a takedown and absolutely leveled him.” I imagine when he goes back and watches the replay of his analysis, Dana will be disappointed in himself for being too emotionally invested into his promotion of Cain for not adequately promoting Junior’s win, especially coming on the news that ten million of Dos Santos’ native Brazilians saw the fight live. Promotion in Brazil is the next big thing for Zuffa, so what better than a third Brazilian champion?
With that out of the way, let’s get a bit into what happens next for everyone involved in the main and co-main.
Clay Guida: Guida put on an exciting, spirited performance in a losing effort. I don’t know if he’ll get any closer than this to a title shot, but he has nothing to be ashamed of. He lost a close, but clear cut decision because Henderson is just a little better than him at everything and is evidently impervious to takedowns. Guida should get a fight with another top guy, perhaps with Jim Miller or Dennis Siver. Both those guys were close to title shots and a win for one them gets that person one or two fights away from contention. I was going to suggest Gray Maynard, but I think that he would beat Guida pretty decisively and that would push Clay out of the title picture and put Maynard in the “Jon Fitch” zone.
Benson Henderson: Ben Smooth looked outstanding in his takedown defense and ability to get out of submissions. He also displayed a fierce heart and some great offense. He has a date with Frankie Edgar on February 26, when the UFC goes to Japan (!!!). That fight should be absolutely insane and I would expect it to be the best one of the year. Both men have cardio for days and cut a wicked pace. Bendo has takedown defense on par with BJ Penn at his peak, as well as improving stand up that will be tested by Edgar’s solid boxing and wrestling abilities. I cannot wait for this fight.
Cain Velasquez: Not really too much to say about Cain’s performance, as it was such a short fight that one cannot really analyze it too much. I liked the way he was using leg kicks to wear Junior down to set up a takedown later, but (as insightful commentary from ESPN’s Bret Okamoto pointed out) he played Junior’s hands a little. He did this by not moving enough and instead providing a hittable target. A minute of fighting was not enough to get a takedown against someone of Junior’s status, but the leg kicks (I think) would have been effective in the long run if he hadn’t been caught. The thirteen month layoff following rotator cuff surgery couldn’t have helped either, as he came in a little heavier than usual. I imagine he’ll trim down a bit once he gets back into fighting regularly. As for his next opponent, I imagine it will be the loser of Lesnar/Overeem (esp. if its Reem), followed by the winner of Frank Mir/Minotauro Nogueira (esp. if its Mir). I think he beats both of those guys and ends up in a title fight by the end of next year/early 2013. He’s too good to just fall to the wayside and I don’t really see any heavyweight besides Dos Santos (and maybe Overeem if he gets hit and can’t get a takedown) really giving him trouble.
Junior Dos Santos: Junior looked amazing in this fight, especially considering that he tore his meniscus a week and a half before the fight. He threw an excellent left jab-overhand right hook to drop Cain and smartly followed it up immediately to get the finish. His next opponent is the winner of Lesnar/Overeem. If its Lesnar, I imagine it going the same way Junior’s fights with Carwin and Velasquez went. I don’t think Brock can get Junior to the mat easily, especially with such poor striking to set up a takedown. Lesnar also doesn’t respond well to getting hit and the case can be made no one at heavyweight is better at hitting people than Junior Dos Santos. If its Overeem, I think Junior has a tougher time because the Reem is such an excellent kickboxer. But Overeem has been knocked out by Chuck Liddell and Shogun Rua in the past, so someone of Junior’s power can finish him. Either way, it is the fight I would like to see and I think it would be pretty sick.
That’s it for this piece. Stay tuned over the next few days for some articles about Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua, and predictions for UFC 139.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
UFC on Fox 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos Preview
This Saturday, November 12 marks a momentous occasion for MMA - the UFC’s debut on network television with the UFC on Fox. Prior to this event CBS had played host to cards from the now defunct Elite XC and the nearly defunct Strikeforce, but this event will be the first time that the world’s premier MMA promotion airs live fights on network television. Curiously, the powers that be at Zuffa and Fox are only going to air one fight, but its a doozy of one: UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will be facing top contender Junior Dos Santos.
I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.
Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.
Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.
Takedowns and Takedown Defense: Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez
Ground Game: Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez
Tangibles/Intangibles: First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.
I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.
Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.
Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.
Takedowns and Takedown Defense: Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez
Ground Game: Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez
Tangibles/Intangibles: First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.
Monday, November 7, 2011
UFC 142 is starting to shape up...
Lost in the mix of the Nick Diaz and Georges St. Pierre becoming the hottest rivalry in the UFC, the upcoming UFC on Fox title fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos on November 12, Jon Jones defending the light heavyweight title and Brock Lesnar returning against Alistair Overeem next month, is the fact that January’s UFC 142 is shaping up to be an exciting card for a multitude of reasons.
The first reason this show should be outstanding is that UFC 142 is going to be in Brazil. This is going to be only five months after the nation played host to UFC 134. That was a show over a decade in the making and provided one of the most memorable cards of the past few years. Between the fights themselves and the relentless enthusiasm of the Brazilian fans, it was a night to remember. By all accounts, the venue used at UFC 134 was far too small to accommodate the demands for tickets. Then, the evening itself went so well that Anderson Silva is now en route to being one of the most famous people in Brazil. Combine that with the fact that MMA has only been getting even more popular in mainstream Brazilian culture over the past few years, making this a slam dunk of an idea from Zuffa.
As if another show in Brazil wasn’t enough to get people curious, Joe Silva has booked two huge fights. The first is longtime contender Chad Mendes finally getting a crack at UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo. Both men have been dominant in their careers, with Aldo having not lost in years and Mendes being undefeated. It should be another strong test of Aldo’s takedown defense and cardio, as Mendes is a great wrestler that doesn’t tire. On the flip side, Mendes has yet to face an opponent that is as difficult to take down as Aldo, especially one that is a transcendent striker to boot. It’ll be interesting to see if Aldo shows more of the aggression he had in the past or if he’ll be more tentative like he was in the Florian or Hominick fights. I would expect an exciting performance from him in front of his hometown fans.
The other announced fight is one that is not the most relevant battle, but one that could have some serious implications. It is a middleweight scrap between Vitor Belfort and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. The appearance of Belfort on this card is huge, as he is a major celebrity in Brazil due to his marriage to a famous actress (or reality starlet or something like that). The crowd should be on fire for him. The fact that his opponent is Rumble is interesting, as it will be Johnson’s first fight at 185 lbs. and comes just as he started to make some headway in the welterweight division. The move up makes a lot of sense for him, as he is a massive welterweight that struggled to get to 170. The man walks around at 230 lbs., so this cut will be a lot easier for him. As for the fight itself, Belfort has little to gain and much to lose. If he wins, it doesn’t really get him any closer to a rematch with Silva. A loss only drops him in the rankings and instantly gives Johnson credibility and a place in the proverbial mix at middleweight. I would like to see Belfort face Sonnen or someone else in the top ten at 185 lbs. to see just how good at this weight he really is (beating Akiyama isn’t that impressive), but this should be an exciting fight nonetheless and that is really all that matters.
Over the next few weeks, I’m sure we’ll see some more fights announced for this show. I would expect to see more Brazilians added to the card. With the UFC not going to Japan, maybe a Shogun-Rampage rematch? Only time will tell.
The first reason this show should be outstanding is that UFC 142 is going to be in Brazil. This is going to be only five months after the nation played host to UFC 134. That was a show over a decade in the making and provided one of the most memorable cards of the past few years. Between the fights themselves and the relentless enthusiasm of the Brazilian fans, it was a night to remember. By all accounts, the venue used at UFC 134 was far too small to accommodate the demands for tickets. Then, the evening itself went so well that Anderson Silva is now en route to being one of the most famous people in Brazil. Combine that with the fact that MMA has only been getting even more popular in mainstream Brazilian culture over the past few years, making this a slam dunk of an idea from Zuffa.
As if another show in Brazil wasn’t enough to get people curious, Joe Silva has booked two huge fights. The first is longtime contender Chad Mendes finally getting a crack at UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo. Both men have been dominant in their careers, with Aldo having not lost in years and Mendes being undefeated. It should be another strong test of Aldo’s takedown defense and cardio, as Mendes is a great wrestler that doesn’t tire. On the flip side, Mendes has yet to face an opponent that is as difficult to take down as Aldo, especially one that is a transcendent striker to boot. It’ll be interesting to see if Aldo shows more of the aggression he had in the past or if he’ll be more tentative like he was in the Florian or Hominick fights. I would expect an exciting performance from him in front of his hometown fans.
The other announced fight is one that is not the most relevant battle, but one that could have some serious implications. It is a middleweight scrap between Vitor Belfort and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. The appearance of Belfort on this card is huge, as he is a major celebrity in Brazil due to his marriage to a famous actress (or reality starlet or something like that). The crowd should be on fire for him. The fact that his opponent is Rumble is interesting, as it will be Johnson’s first fight at 185 lbs. and comes just as he started to make some headway in the welterweight division. The move up makes a lot of sense for him, as he is a massive welterweight that struggled to get to 170. The man walks around at 230 lbs., so this cut will be a lot easier for him. As for the fight itself, Belfort has little to gain and much to lose. If he wins, it doesn’t really get him any closer to a rematch with Silva. A loss only drops him in the rankings and instantly gives Johnson credibility and a place in the proverbial mix at middleweight. I would like to see Belfort face Sonnen or someone else in the top ten at 185 lbs. to see just how good at this weight he really is (beating Akiyama isn’t that impressive), but this should be an exciting fight nonetheless and that is really all that matters.
Over the next few weeks, I’m sure we’ll see some more fights announced for this show. I would expect to see more Brazilians added to the card. With the UFC not going to Japan, maybe a Shogun-Rampage rematch? Only time will tell.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
UFC 137: Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?
Evidently, the title to UFC 137 should have been “Retirement Party.” After all, two of the biggest names in the sport retired after their defeats in Mirko Cro Cop and BJ Penn. The first was a long time coming, while the second was both surprising and obvious once you get past the surface. For the sake of brevity and lack of specifics in regards to the lower weight classes, I’m going to simply talk about the winners and losers of the three biggest fights on the card: Cro Cop/Nelson, Kongo/Mitrione, and Penn/Diaz.
Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.
Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.
Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.
Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.
BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.
Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.
That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.
Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.
Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.
Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.
Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.
BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.
Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.
That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
UFC 137 Predictions
It’s been a busy October for Zuffa, with UFC 137 coming up now. It is the third pay per view and in five weeks and the fifth card in six weeks. I had originally written up a whole batch of predictions and thoughts on the original main event of Georges St. Pierre defending the UFC Welterweight Title against Carlos Condit, but that was cancelled when GSP pulled out with a knee injury on ten days notice. Since the injury is minor enough that this fight can happen in the next few months, Condit was pulled completely from the card. Otherwise, I’m sure he would be fighting Josh Koscheck. The new main event is now BJ Penn against Nick Diaz, a fight I was anticipating more anyways. The co-main is a heavyweight scrap between Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo, which should be...something. Let’s get to it.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.
BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz: I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.
Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.
BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz: I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.
Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Joe's UFC 137 Predictions
UFC 137 is tomorrow, so as is the tradition here on BBB I have composed my preview of the fights we’ll be seeing on the main card. Originally 137 was going to be a great show with Georges St-Pierre defending his Welterweight Championship against Nick Diaz in the main event, and a co-main of BJ Penn against Carlos Condit. Diaz then skipped out on the media events to promote the show so Condit moved up to fight GSP and Diaz was dropped down to fighting Penn. Then GSP got injured, so now the main event is Penn against Diaz and a strange and underwhelming co-main of Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione. However, the first two fights on the main card are in the featherweight and bantamweight divisions respectively and the little guys are always exciting so this could be a pretty good show. But on the other hand this seems like one of those cards where almost every fight is going to go to decision and be pretty underwhelming. Who knows. Here’s the predictions…
Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1): I have no idea who either of these guys are, but looking at their records I can make some sort of feeble prediction. Hioki’s four losses have all been by decision, and for that to happen in 30 fights says a lot about his toughness. Twelve of his 24 wins have been by submission, and four of Roop’s seven losses have come by submission. In Roop’s last five fights he’s 2-2-1. In Hioki’s last five fights he’s 4-1, with the one loss coming as a split decision back in 2009. I’m thinking Hioki by second round submission.
Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curan (33-13-1): Once again, I haven’t a clue as to who either of these guys are, but Jorgensen is coming off a knockout win after losing a decision for the Bantamweight Championship. Curan is 34 with an insane 47 fights under his belt, but he’s got good submissions. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in a decision, and four of Jorgensen’s last six have gone to decision. I think Jorgensen wins by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 1 NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6): This is incredibly sad as it is essentially the Mirko Cro Cop retirement party. Mirko is a sad shell of the destroyer he once was. He used to possess devastating kicks, once describing them with the amazing quote, “Right leg, hospital; left leg, cemetery.” However he has been laid out in his last two fights and was demolished by heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos at the end of 09. Two underwhelming wins fill the gap between dos Santos brutalizing him and his two knockout losses. Cro Cop is cooked, and Roy Nelson will most likely finish his career off. Nelson is a disgusting slob of a person, coming into fights with a huge gut and obviously in no shape to go longer than a round, but he packs a devastating right hand. Sadly Mirko’s shown he can’t take many big shots anymore, nor can he give them out. Even before he submitted Pat Barry at 115 he was getting dropped by little punches the entire first round. Nelson is fat and disgusting and an insult to the sport, but he can take a beating in the unlikely even Mirko can throw out some strikes, and he can dish out some big punches of his own. Nelson wins by second round KO.
Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0): Mitrione is a rising star in the heavyweight division. Known affectionately as “Meathead” from his time on The Ultimate Fighter, he has gone from being one of the most easily hate-worthy fighters to being an easily likable prospect. It is amazing. As for Kongo, he possesses awesome knockout power. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Pat Barry which was total crap since Barry was out on his feet for about a minute and the ref never stopped the fight, then Barry his Kongo with a freak punch and put him down. Kongo is a tough guy, only being knocked out once in his career. This fight could either be really exciting or really boring since that’s how it goes with the heavyweights. I'm sure the first round will be kind of intense, then the pace is going to go way down. I don’t like picking against either one of them really, but I think Mitrione wins a decision.
BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0, 1 NC): Though his record doesn’t make it seem so, BJ is the greatest lightweight of all time. Now he’s moved back up to welterweight, where he had won his first championship in the UFC against the legendary Matt Hughes. Nick Diaz is back in the UFC after a run as Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. BJ has been said to have the best boxing in MMA history, and Diaz’s striking is also very good. Both like to work submissions as well. It is a curious fight since BJ is known for coming out early and whooping ass, then gassing out later in the fight (see fights with Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre). BJ will be giving up some size but that has never mattered to him before. Diaz is extremely tough, having lost by TKO one time in the last 9 years. BJ's only true TKO loss came five years ago, while his other was just a corner stoppage since he was too tired and beaten up for go a fifth round with GSP. Neither has ever been submitted, and it is hard to see either fighter knocking the other out. As long as BJ doesn't gas out, this should be a very close fight. I feel bad picking against a Diaz brother, but BJ Penn is BJ Penn and you can't go against that. I think BJ will win a decision, though I could easily see him gassing out and getting beat convincingly by Diaz.
Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1): I have no idea who either of these guys are, but looking at their records I can make some sort of feeble prediction. Hioki’s four losses have all been by decision, and for that to happen in 30 fights says a lot about his toughness. Twelve of his 24 wins have been by submission, and four of Roop’s seven losses have come by submission. In Roop’s last five fights he’s 2-2-1. In Hioki’s last five fights he’s 4-1, with the one loss coming as a split decision back in 2009. I’m thinking Hioki by second round submission.
Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curan (33-13-1): Once again, I haven’t a clue as to who either of these guys are, but Jorgensen is coming off a knockout win after losing a decision for the Bantamweight Championship. Curan is 34 with an insane 47 fights under his belt, but he’s got good submissions. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in a decision, and four of Jorgensen’s last six have gone to decision. I think Jorgensen wins by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 1 NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6): This is incredibly sad as it is essentially the Mirko Cro Cop retirement party. Mirko is a sad shell of the destroyer he once was. He used to possess devastating kicks, once describing them with the amazing quote, “Right leg, hospital; left leg, cemetery.” However he has been laid out in his last two fights and was demolished by heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos at the end of 09. Two underwhelming wins fill the gap between dos Santos brutalizing him and his two knockout losses. Cro Cop is cooked, and Roy Nelson will most likely finish his career off. Nelson is a disgusting slob of a person, coming into fights with a huge gut and obviously in no shape to go longer than a round, but he packs a devastating right hand. Sadly Mirko’s shown he can’t take many big shots anymore, nor can he give them out. Even before he submitted Pat Barry at 115 he was getting dropped by little punches the entire first round. Nelson is fat and disgusting and an insult to the sport, but he can take a beating in the unlikely even Mirko can throw out some strikes, and he can dish out some big punches of his own. Nelson wins by second round KO.
Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0): Mitrione is a rising star in the heavyweight division. Known affectionately as “Meathead” from his time on The Ultimate Fighter, he has gone from being one of the most easily hate-worthy fighters to being an easily likable prospect. It is amazing. As for Kongo, he possesses awesome knockout power. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Pat Barry which was total crap since Barry was out on his feet for about a minute and the ref never stopped the fight, then Barry his Kongo with a freak punch and put him down. Kongo is a tough guy, only being knocked out once in his career. This fight could either be really exciting or really boring since that’s how it goes with the heavyweights. I'm sure the first round will be kind of intense, then the pace is going to go way down. I don’t like picking against either one of them really, but I think Mitrione wins a decision.
BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0, 1 NC): Though his record doesn’t make it seem so, BJ is the greatest lightweight of all time. Now he’s moved back up to welterweight, where he had won his first championship in the UFC against the legendary Matt Hughes. Nick Diaz is back in the UFC after a run as Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. BJ has been said to have the best boxing in MMA history, and Diaz’s striking is also very good. Both like to work submissions as well. It is a curious fight since BJ is known for coming out early and whooping ass, then gassing out later in the fight (see fights with Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre). BJ will be giving up some size but that has never mattered to him before. Diaz is extremely tough, having lost by TKO one time in the last 9 years. BJ's only true TKO loss came five years ago, while his other was just a corner stoppage since he was too tired and beaten up for go a fifth round with GSP. Neither has ever been submitted, and it is hard to see either fighter knocking the other out. As long as BJ doesn't gas out, this should be a very close fight. I feel bad picking against a Diaz brother, but BJ Penn is BJ Penn and you can't go against that. I think BJ will win a decision, though I could easily see him gassing out and getting beat convincingly by Diaz.
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