Zuffacaps off another year of big fights on Friday, December 30 with UFC 141. It features a massive main event, both literally and figuratively, as Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon after a lengthy battle with diverticulitis and takes on fellow behemoth Alistair “the Demoltion Man” Overeem for the right to take on Junior Dos Santos in a title fight next year. The co-main event features what should be a very exciting lightweight scrap between Nate Diaz and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. The rest of the card is a little “meh,” but with Brock Lesnar’s return the UFC doesn’t need to stack the card to increase interest. To be fair, it is still a better undercard than Penn/Diaz and Rampage/Hamill. Let’s get into it.
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes: This is a featherweight bout featuring one dude I’ve never heard of (Hettes) against someone I don’t care for (Phan). Hettes looks like he is a prospect with sick submission skills and Phan is a striker who has fought Leonard Garcia twice in the past year, losing one questionably and almost getting knocked out while dominating the second. I wasn’t impressed with Phan in his win against Garcia and he lost to Mike Thomas Brown, who has seen better days. Hettes beat some dude from the same season of the Ultimate Fighter Phan was on, so I assume this fight is to build him up some more. I’m going to go with Hettes by second round submission.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Matyushenko has been fighting MMA since the USSR collapsed and Gustafsson is supposed to be part of the future of the light heavyweight division. This should be a real test of where he stands, as “The Janitor” should be a game opponent for Gustafsson. Vlad really only loses to the top level guys, or people on their way to that point. His only defeats are to Jon Jones (2010), Little Nog (2009), Andrei Arlovski (2003), Tito Ortiz (2001), and Vernon White (1999). Gustafsson recently beat Matt Hamill to a pulp (and into retirement) and has looked much improved since his loss to fellow up and comer Phil Davis last year. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gustafsson to dominate. Matyushenko needs to grapple and grind away to win. Gustafsson thwarted Hamill’s wrestling based game; I expect him to do the same to Matyushenko. I don’t know that he’ll finish him, so let’s say Gustafsson by decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: No one took the news of GSP’s injury better than Fitch, I presume. The perennial number 2 welterweight in the world could potentially get himself in a title fight next year if he continues his winning ways here. His opponent, Hendricks, is no pushover though. Hendricks is also a wrestling based fighter, with top notch NCAA credentials, but can also trade on the feet (unlike Fitch). I expect this fight to be a bit of a snoozer, as Jon Fitch fights make me weep if I manage to stay awake through them. I really can’t decide who I want to win, as Fitch is dull and Hendricks spells his first name like a goof. People seem to think Hendricks has a good chance to win this and I feel like Fitch hasn’t looked great in his past few fights, but he is still the most dominant UFC fighter not named St. Pierre or Silva in the past five years. With a potential chance at a title shot, I expect him to put forth a better effort than lately, where it seems like he was treading water because he knew he wasn’t getting GSP again. Fitch by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone has been on a tear this year, going 4-0 since joining the UFC after the WEC was closed for business. He is looking for a fifth win in 2011, an impressive feat to be sure. Diaz is looking refreshed since moving back to lightweight after a stint at welterweight. Diaz looked great against the ghost of Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 and Cerrone crushed Dennis Siver at UFC 137. The winner of this fight could be a fringe title contender next year, probably only needing one more win to get a shot. Diaz struggles against wrestlers with strong top games and Cerrone struggles against Ben Henderson, so neither of their weaknesses should come into play here. I lean towards Diaz, due to the fact he has fought consistently tougher competition the past several years and I like the way the Diaz brothers throw down. In what should be the fight of the night, Diaz by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: This is like Thor vs. the Incredible Hulk, two monsters in the cage going at it. There are so many questions going into this fight. For Lesnar - 1.) Is he in good health after battling diverticulitis for the past two years? 2.) Is he still afraid to get punched? 3.) Have his overall skills improved? 4.) Does he still have the dominant wrestling he used against Frank Mir? For Overeem - 1.) Can he stop Lesnar’s takedowns/can he keep the fight standing? 2.) Have the steroid allegations and his mother’s illness distracted him? 3.) Is he underestimating Lesnar by looking past him? 4.) Is he all hype, or actually a legit top 5 heavyweight? Lesnar’s inability to set up takedowns because of his poor striking game was exposed by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, but both of those men have extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds. Overeem is not a wrestling machine and has not ever fought someone with Lesnar’s skill in that department. Two things can happen when Lesnar comes in with that chest high takedown he goes for when he is trying to avoid striking - 1.) he could walk right into one of Overeem’s lethal knee strikes or patented standing guillotine or 2.) Overeem could get bulldozed into the mat and be at the mercy of Lesnar’s vicious ground strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t establish the takedown, I don’t have much faith in his abilities to stand with the Reem. Cain Velasquez was able to tee off on Brock and he is nowhere near Overeem’s level of striker. If it stays standing, I expect Overeem to finish within two rounds. For Overeem, he needs to defend the takedown and get up quickly if brought down. Just as importantly, he needs to do this without gassing out. I have no faith in his abilities to persevere through a round or two of takedowns and ground and pound. I tend to think that Overeem’s takedown defense (his biggest weakness) is not nearly as crippling as Lesnar’s weakness in responding to strikes. On the other hand, I feel like Lesnar may be able to turn a knee to the body into a takedown. He seems to be able physically to take a shot, but not mentally. If he eats a hard punch or knee to the face, he’s done. I think this is what happens. Lesnar is going to come out blazing for a takedown. If he gets it, he pounds on Overeem en route to a second round TKO. If he doesn’t, he gets caught and stumbles. From there, Overeem blasts away with knees to the body and punches and gets a first round TKO. I’m torn over which option happens. In some ways it doesn’t matter because I think Junior Dos Santos can beat both men, although the Reem would be tougher for him. Let’s go Overeem by first round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions.
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