Another big UFC card is upon us! Jon Jones looks to cement his place at the top of the division against Lyoto Machida, Minotauro Nogueira looks to prove the first time Frank Mir beat him was a fluke, and Tito Ortiz is out to show he's still got something left in the tank. The three big fights should be pretty awesome and I'm pretty pumped for the card. Here's how it will go down:
Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.
Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.
Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.
For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.
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