Joe's UFC 140 Predictions

Another big UFC card is upon us! Jon Jones looks to cement his place at the top of the division against Lyoto Machida, Minotauro Nogueira looks to prove the first time Frank Mir beat him was a fluke, and Tito Ortiz is out to show he's still got something left in the tank. The three big fights should be pretty awesome and I'm pretty pumped for the card. Here's how it will go down:

Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.

Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.

Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.

Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.

For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.

UFC 140 Gets A Main Event And Lyoto Machida Gets An Opponent

Earlier this week, I had been planning to write that the main event of UFC 140 should become Lyoto Machida against Rashad Evans. This was based on the assumption that Jon Jones’ six month medical suspension would hold for at least half that time. Turns out, it is Evans who can’t make the December 10 fight card and now Lyoto Machida will be fighting Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title.

In some ways, this makes the UFC look a little silly. After Jones’ last two fights, Rashad was brought into the Octagon to hype a fight with Jonny Bones. Now for the second straight time, Jones will be fighting a different person. From a promotional standpoint, it makes the UFC look a bit amateur by repeatedly announcing and then changing this fight. Evans has been the clear top contender for over a year now, hence being put in a title match, but the changing of opponents makes title matches seem more entertainment and less merit (ranking system) based.

That being said, it worked out well the prior two times. Replacing Evans with Jones against Shogun Rua helped to usher in a brand new star for the company. Then, after the bickering, setting up Jones vs. Rampage Jackson made for a fight that provided both a credible challenger and increased attention from people due to Jackson’s popularity and name recognition. In this instance, Machida hasn’t fought since crushing Randy Couture in March and hasn’t really been mentioned in the title picture other than “if he wins his next fight or two, he should get a title shot.”

While the UFC has been pushing this Jones and Evans rivalry all year, I believe Machida makes for a better opponent and match. Jones and Evans have similar styles and Jones would be the bigger, stronger, faster opponent. I would expect him to beat Evans decisively. Machida is a much more intriguing challenger. He forces his opponents to fight his way, on his terms. Jones hasn’t faced anyone capable of that. Machida’s style of counter punching and his speed and reflexes could cause some serious problems for Jones. During the Shogun and Rampage fights, Jones left himself exposed for strikes and takedowns. The only problem was that Rua was too injured and Jackson was too slow and one dimensional. Machida has underrated takedowns and can be lightning fast with his strikes. If Jones comes in on him or turns his back during strikes (like he did against Rua AND Jackson), Machida can make him pay.

I think that this is the only fight for Jones that will truly test him. Dan Henderson might have a chance, but I tend to think Jones can rag doll him. Even if he gets healthy and that’s a big if, I don’t know that Shogun can beat Jones’ wrestling skills. While Jones is considered a favorite in the Machida fight and justifiably so, I think its only a slight favorite. I’m biased both against Jones and towards Machida, so it is impossible to objective in this fight. I lean towards Jones 55%-45% in my thinking. I’m sure I’ll get into this more once we get closer to the fight. Regardless, I’m glad this fight is happening and it definitely saves a UFC 140 card that was highlighted by the brothers Nogueira facing Frank Mir and Tito Ortiz. Between this fight and UFC 141’s Lesnar-Overeem tilt, Zuffa has made December a must see month.