UFC 134 was a huge success for the world’s premier MMA organization. Featuring a raucous Brazilian crowd and a main card in which nearly every fight featured a finish, the night provided one of the most exciting UFC events this year. PRIDE vets Minotauro Nogueira and Shogun Rua reminded fans of their glory days, while Anderson Silva continued to show that he fights on a level that no one else can even see, much less reach. Without rambling too much, I’m just going to delve into what I think should come next for some of the fighters on the card and my thoughts on the fight they just had.
Brendan Schaub: The Nogueira fight exposed Schaub for what he is - a very green prospect that can’t fight when he is pressured. In the early goings of the fight, he did well when he was the one forcing the action, wobbling and stunning Minotauro. However once Nogueira stalked him and started to unload, Schaub went down hard. His lack of basic striking defense and a questionable chin have now made his presumed path up the heavyweight rankings more of an “if” than a “when.” I mean, this was only the third knockout win of Big Nog’s career; he is not known as a power puncher. This loss should move Schaub further down the card, where I would expect him to fight Roy Nelson if Nelson loses to Cro Cop. The loser of Cheick Kongo and Matt Mitrione is also a possibility.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Big Nog turned back time and provided the real emotional highlight of the night. Nogueira, despite looking a bit heavy and moving sluggishly, was able to whip the hometown crowd into a frenzy with his knockout of Schaub. As much as I would like this to be his last fight, as it provides a perfect final chapter in his storied career by winning in his first fight in Brazil, he still has a few interesting fights left. I would put him up against the winner of Cro Cop and Nelson, as a Cro Cop rematch would be a neat nostalgia fight and Roy Nelson is only dangerous if he lands a bomb early in a fight. More importantly, a fight with either man keeps Nogueira away from being on the receiving end of another brutal knockout. If his ability to walk through some of Schaubs’ punches was not an aberration, there are two fights that could be made. A match with the winner of Mitrione and Kongo could set him up for a contender’s fight sometime next year, or a rematch with Frank Mir could set up either man for the next title shot against Velasquez-Dos Santos. Potential fights with Overeeem and Lesnar are also ideas, but at this stage in his career he could get creamed by Overeem and a Lesnar fight is truly a toss-up. Not to continue rambling, but I think the Nelson-Cro Cop winner is the best option. I love Nogueira, but he needs to win a few fights to show that he is recovered from his injuries. Still, with a 4-2 mark in the UFC, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was pushed into the title picture one more time.
Forrest Griffin: Retirement. Forrest did not look good at all in losing to Shogun Rua, in terms of performance or effort. He took a nice punch to the face and when he shot for a takedown, just kind of got pushed over and mauled. He didn’t try to stop it. In his last two fights now, Forrest has looked lethargic and tentative. He also has looked like he has no desire to be fighting. Typically, Forrest has some kind of emotional reaction after getting pounded, but it didn’t really seem like he cared either way that he was pasted by Shogun. The combination of all of these things is dangerous to his health. What’s the point of fighting if you no longer have it in you? For years, tenacity and desire were the hallmarks of his style and with those traits missing, Forrest has nothing to offer in the Octagon. He doesn’t need money and has a successful career as an author, he might as well just hang them up. If he decides to continue, I don’t really know who he should face. He can’t beat top ten level fighters anymore and I have no real interest (and would hope Forrest doesn’t either) in seeing someone like Alexander Gustaffson shoot up the rankings by beating the snot out of him.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: Shogun showed why he was always considered a top flight light heavyweight by finishing Griffin quickly. For years, Shogun Rua has had the best finishing instincts of any fighter in MMA. If he senses you’re hurt, he pounces and he finishes. This finish was impressive due to the fact that he is still clearly not 100% and may never be. His footwork and movement was not good, and his feared leg kicks never came in to play. For the reason of his knees, he may never again reach a title shot. He would have a very tough time defeating a Jon Jones or Rashad Evans, or even Phil Davis, since his balky knees would make sprawling and takedown defense damn nigh impossible. That’s why he should fight some people who are not primarily grapplers. If Rampage Jackson loses to Jon Jones, he would be an ideal opponent for Shogun. So would Dan Henderson, as although Hendo is a wrestler he is not afraid to stand and trade punches for three rounds. I personally would like to see him fight Rogerio Nogueira, as Little Nog has been stuck facing lay and pray guys like Ryan Bader and this would give fans the opportunity to see why signing Rogerio to the UFC was a big deal. Plus, it would be a rematch of their classic 2005 fight, my favorite match of all-time. Regardless, I think that if Rampage wins against Jones, you do Hendo vs Rua on the UFC’s Fox debut for number one contender after Rashad Evans. If Rampage loses, that is the fight to make for early next year.
Yushin Okami: Okami was tooled hard by Anderson Silva and basically showed why he wasn’t given a title shot earlier. His only offense was a first round clinch where he ate more knees to the body while landing a few weak uppercuts. After receiving a head kick and knee to the chest to end the first round, Okami was done. The second round consisted of him getting floored by a jab (twice!) while Silva taunted him in the hopes of getting Okami to swing. Okami didn’t swing and stood there terrified until Silva finally put him out of his misery. He now gets to be the Jon Fitch of the middleweight division, only not as good. If I had to match him up with someone, I would hold onto him until early next year for the UFC’s rumored trip to Japan and put him up against Wanderlei Silva. He is of no threat to Silva’s considerably weakened chin and it would be a throwback to the PRIDE fights of Wand versus some random Japanese dude. Besides, it isn’t like either man is going to be contending again anytime soon. Silva, because he’s done as a title contender and Okami because he can’t be beating potential contenders in boring fashion with no chance of getting another title shot while Anderson reigns supreme at 185 lbs.
Anderson Silva: The Spider only furthered his legacy as the greatest of all time by humiliating Okami. Having the opportunity to watch someone like Silva, who is so fluid and graceful and natural with everything he does, is a real treat for a fight fan. He is on a whole different level of existence as a mixed martial artist. I cannot overstate this enough. Prior to this fight, Okami had only been finished once. He took Okami’s best option (the clinch) and withstood it easily to the point of breaking Okami’s will. This was only furthered in the second round when he put his hands to his side, avoided punches with simple head movements, and floored Yushin with a jab. I guess he fights the winner of the upcoming Brian Stann-Chael Sonnen fight, but is there really any doubt that Anderson will knock out or submit Stann (who is a decent striker with average ground abilities) or finish Sonnen again? Other than that, there’s Mark Munoz and Chris Leben, and neither of those guys stand a chance. Belfort’s destruction is too recent. There’s Dan Henderson, but Silva beat him decisively once already and Hendo is much more competitive as an undersized light heavyweight than he is at middleweight. I think Silva has one more fight that he needs to do before he should just retire as the sport’s most dominant fighter ever and that is GSP at a catchweight. They are the two most dominant men in the sport and have both cleared out their divisions, Anderson more than GSP (who still has Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit left). They are also the two biggest global stars in the UFC, with GSP a god in North America and Silva becoming a huge name in Brazil and the rest of South America over the course of the past year. There is no better time than right now to do this fight and once GSP wins a lackluster decision over Diaz, the UFC has no choice but to pull the trigger on this. Who else would fans be interested in seeing GSP face off against? And who else could believably stand a chance against Silva? Even if I think Silva would crush him, there’s enough intrigue in the two squaring off that I wouldn’t put it past GSP to defy the odds and win. So, I’ve already rambled enough here. It’s time for GSP or bust.
Any thoughts, comments, whatever? Feel free to leave them on facebook or the comment page here.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The Fight That Made Forrest Griffin
Tonight’s UFC 134 features a co-main event of one of the most important fights in the company’s history: Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. As much as the Ultimate Fighter Finale against Stephan Bonnar made Griffin a name to MMA fans, it was this fight with Rua that made him more than just a guy known for scrapping and propelled him to the top of the light heavyweight food chain.
Considered at the time to be the best 205 lb fighter in the world and possibly the best pound for pound, UFC 76 was supposed to be Shogun Rua’s coming out party in the United States. While in PRIDE, he had established a stunning 12-1 record, with the only loss coming from a freak injury against Mark Coleman. His tally of victories featured noteworthy names like Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Kevin Randleman, and the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion at the time of his US debut Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Shogun was particularly noted for his viciousness and finishing skills, with only one win coming by decision. The arrival of Shogun to the UFC was a big deal.
For his debut to the UFC audience, Zuffa needed someone credible for Shogun to face before they could push him into dream matches against Chuck Liddell and a rematch with Jackson (who himself had to fight Marvin Eastman before he fought Chuck Liddell for the title). The best name for this purpose: Forrest Griffin. Griffin, due to his time on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter, was a name instantly recognizable to American audiences. His tenacious style and willingness to engage in wild brawls made him a fan favorite. He would also stand little chance of beating a fighter as dominant as Rua. At this time, Griffin’s biggest fights were his two wins over Stephan Bonnar and a controversial split decision loss to Tito Ortiz in 2006. Not really known for having a ton of finishing skills, Forrest could be counted on to bring a fast paced fight that would showcase the heavily favored Rua’s vicious Muay Thai skills and set Shogun up for a title shot in early 2008. What happened over the course of their 14:45 battle would shock the world.
From the onset, Forrest set the tone and pace for this fight. Looking much fitter and quicker than the sluggish Rua, Griffin fought at a speed more akin to a lightweight. Utilizing leg kicks and constant movement, Forrest kept Rua from really getting on track in the early goings of the fight. By the end of a first round that could have been scored for Rua due to his busting Griffin open, two things were obvious: Forrest Griffin wasn’t going to just get mauled like people expected and Shogun was gassed.
In the second round, Griffin began to use the clinch and takedowns to smother Rua and wear him down some more. Rua was visibly slower throughout the round, while Griffin continued to move at the same speed as in the first. By the end of the second, Forrest still looked fresh while Shogun was on weary legs. This continued into the third round, where Griffin continued to wear Rua down. More takedowns, more ground and pound, more kickboxing and with less than a minute to go and since MMA judging is at best an inexact science, the fate of the match still up in the air Forrest went for the kill. Taking Rua’s back, Griffin locked in a rear naked choke and forced a submission with fifteen seconds left in the fight. Not only did Griffin beat the world’s top ranked light heavyweight, he did it by finishing an opponent for the first time in two years.
Forrest rode the momentum from this win and got a coaching slot on the Ultimate Fighter opposite Quinton Jackson that segued into a title shot at UFC 86. Again, Griffin shocked the world and won a decision that made him the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. In the span of ten months Griffin went from credible brawler and cannon fodder to legitimate top level light heavyweight. After that, things got a little rockier with back to back losses. The first was a third round TKO loss to Rashad Evans and the second was a humliiating three minute massacre at the hands of Anderson Silva. Since then, he has won two straight fights and is still solidly entrenched in the top ten fighters at his weight class.
For Mauricio Rua, the road since then has still been rocky. Blaming the loss to Griffin and his poor conditioning on bad knees, Shogun took the next fifteen months off for surgery and rest. He returned at UFC 93, where despite gassing badly again, he knocked Mark Coleman out in the third round. He followed this up by looking a bit better against Chuck Liddell, whom he knocked out in the first round at UFC 97. Still, this was looked at as more of an indictment on Liddell’s suspect ability to take a punch than on Shogun returning to form. The tide began to turn for him when he faced Lyoto Machida at UFC 104. Looked at as another victim for the undefeated Lyoto, Rua actually looked to have solved the Machida enigma before losing a controversial decision. He was given an instant rematch and at UFC 113 looked like the Shogun of old, knocking out Machida in three and a half minutes to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Title. After this came time off to nurse another knee injury. In his return at UFC 128, Shogun looked like the shell that fought Griffin and Coleman and he received a pummeling at the hands of Jon Jones for three rounds.
UFC 134 marks a crossroads of sorts for both men. For Rua, it is the chance to avenge his humiliating debut and show the world that he is healthy and able to compete at a high level, as well as claw back into the title hunt. For Griffin, it’s the opportunity to prove that the first win wasn’t a fluke or because Rua wasn’t healthy or prepared. It’s also the chance to topple the man currently ranked third in the world at his weight class and potentially fight for the title again next year. While a loss for Griffin would push him to the bottom of the top tier light heavyweights, a loss for Shogun could send him out of the title picture for good. No matter what happens for either man, the specter of UFC 76 and its stunning outcome will hang over both men for the rest of their careers.
Considered at the time to be the best 205 lb fighter in the world and possibly the best pound for pound, UFC 76 was supposed to be Shogun Rua’s coming out party in the United States. While in PRIDE, he had established a stunning 12-1 record, with the only loss coming from a freak injury against Mark Coleman. His tally of victories featured noteworthy names like Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Kevin Randleman, and the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion at the time of his US debut Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Shogun was particularly noted for his viciousness and finishing skills, with only one win coming by decision. The arrival of Shogun to the UFC was a big deal.
For his debut to the UFC audience, Zuffa needed someone credible for Shogun to face before they could push him into dream matches against Chuck Liddell and a rematch with Jackson (who himself had to fight Marvin Eastman before he fought Chuck Liddell for the title). The best name for this purpose: Forrest Griffin. Griffin, due to his time on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter, was a name instantly recognizable to American audiences. His tenacious style and willingness to engage in wild brawls made him a fan favorite. He would also stand little chance of beating a fighter as dominant as Rua. At this time, Griffin’s biggest fights were his two wins over Stephan Bonnar and a controversial split decision loss to Tito Ortiz in 2006. Not really known for having a ton of finishing skills, Forrest could be counted on to bring a fast paced fight that would showcase the heavily favored Rua’s vicious Muay Thai skills and set Shogun up for a title shot in early 2008. What happened over the course of their 14:45 battle would shock the world.
From the onset, Forrest set the tone and pace for this fight. Looking much fitter and quicker than the sluggish Rua, Griffin fought at a speed more akin to a lightweight. Utilizing leg kicks and constant movement, Forrest kept Rua from really getting on track in the early goings of the fight. By the end of a first round that could have been scored for Rua due to his busting Griffin open, two things were obvious: Forrest Griffin wasn’t going to just get mauled like people expected and Shogun was gassed.
In the second round, Griffin began to use the clinch and takedowns to smother Rua and wear him down some more. Rua was visibly slower throughout the round, while Griffin continued to move at the same speed as in the first. By the end of the second, Forrest still looked fresh while Shogun was on weary legs. This continued into the third round, where Griffin continued to wear Rua down. More takedowns, more ground and pound, more kickboxing and with less than a minute to go and since MMA judging is at best an inexact science, the fate of the match still up in the air Forrest went for the kill. Taking Rua’s back, Griffin locked in a rear naked choke and forced a submission with fifteen seconds left in the fight. Not only did Griffin beat the world’s top ranked light heavyweight, he did it by finishing an opponent for the first time in two years.
Forrest rode the momentum from this win and got a coaching slot on the Ultimate Fighter opposite Quinton Jackson that segued into a title shot at UFC 86. Again, Griffin shocked the world and won a decision that made him the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. In the span of ten months Griffin went from credible brawler and cannon fodder to legitimate top level light heavyweight. After that, things got a little rockier with back to back losses. The first was a third round TKO loss to Rashad Evans and the second was a humliiating three minute massacre at the hands of Anderson Silva. Since then, he has won two straight fights and is still solidly entrenched in the top ten fighters at his weight class.
For Mauricio Rua, the road since then has still been rocky. Blaming the loss to Griffin and his poor conditioning on bad knees, Shogun took the next fifteen months off for surgery and rest. He returned at UFC 93, where despite gassing badly again, he knocked Mark Coleman out in the third round. He followed this up by looking a bit better against Chuck Liddell, whom he knocked out in the first round at UFC 97. Still, this was looked at as more of an indictment on Liddell’s suspect ability to take a punch than on Shogun returning to form. The tide began to turn for him when he faced Lyoto Machida at UFC 104. Looked at as another victim for the undefeated Lyoto, Rua actually looked to have solved the Machida enigma before losing a controversial decision. He was given an instant rematch and at UFC 113 looked like the Shogun of old, knocking out Machida in three and a half minutes to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Title. After this came time off to nurse another knee injury. In his return at UFC 128, Shogun looked like the shell that fought Griffin and Coleman and he received a pummeling at the hands of Jon Jones for three rounds.
UFC 134 marks a crossroads of sorts for both men. For Rua, it is the chance to avenge his humiliating debut and show the world that he is healthy and able to compete at a high level, as well as claw back into the title hunt. For Griffin, it’s the opportunity to prove that the first win wasn’t a fluke or because Rua wasn’t healthy or prepared. It’s also the chance to topple the man currently ranked third in the world at his weight class and potentially fight for the title again next year. While a loss for Griffin would push him to the bottom of the top tier light heavyweights, a loss for Shogun could send him out of the title picture for good. No matter what happens for either man, the specter of UFC 76 and its stunning outcome will hang over both men for the rest of their careers.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Joe's UFC 134 Predictions
The UFC is known to hype every fight up as the most important fight of the ever. Of course that’s what any good sports company does to sell tickets, pay per views, merchandise, etc. Sometimes the hype isn’t warranted (Cro Cop vs. Mir) but other times, like this Saturday, it is an event so momentous that all who care about the sport must take notice. For the first time in 13 years, the Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to Rio for UFC 134. It promises to be an exciting card, mainly because the main event features the greatest of all time and current UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva taking on the last man to defeat him, Yushin Okami. With the exception of one of the preliminary bouts, every fight features at least one Brazilian fighter. Personally I’m pretty excited for this card, and as the title of the post states, I’ve made some predictions. So here we go.
Luiz Cane (11-3, 1NC) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (11-0): Nedkov will be making his UFC debut and I feel a little bad he’s got to go up against a Brazilian in the first major UFC event the country is having. That will put a lot of pressure on him I feel. Meanwhile, I don’t remember seeing Luiz Cane since Rogerio Nogueira finished him two years ago. This is not a fight I’m pretty excited for. I predict Cane by decision.
Ross Pearson (12-4) vs. Edson Barboza (8-0): I would like Barboza a lot more if it were spelled Barbosa like the awesome former Phoenix Sun. As for Ross Pearson, my brother said it best when he said any man named Ross has to make his nickname “The Boss.” Pearson did not adhere to this rule and instead went with “The Real Deal.” Lame nickname and the fact I hate British people except for the most beautiful woman in the world Emily Blunt and the Rolling Stones makes me not want to pick him, as well as the fact British fighters scrap but never seem to win a lot. Barboza is the only man I’ve ever seen with not just one, but TWO wins by TKO due to leg kicks. I’m expecting a Barboza second round TKO.
Brendan Schaub (8-1) vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (32-6-1, 1NC): Big Nog, one of the probably three greatest heavyweights to ever fight, looks to come back after taking more than a year off to fight in his native Brazil for the first time. Nogueira went from never being finished in his epic career in Japan over the course of 9 years, to coming to the UFC and getting knocked out by Frank Mir in 2008, then again by Cain Velasquez in 2009. Big Nog used to have terrific boxing and is most likely the greatest submission specialist in heavyweight history. He has more wins by submission (20) than anybody else I’ve named on this card so far has fights. However he fought sick and injured his last few fights and hasn’t looked like the man he was in Pride FC. Whereas he used to be able to take horrific beatings for 20 minutes and then slap on a submission and win, he now can hardly take a punch. Meanwhile Brendan Schaub looks to finish off the Pride legacy by knocking out Nogueira like he did with Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop just a couple months ago. Big Nog has promised a submission victory for his hometown fans, but I don’t see him having enough left in the tank to deliver. As much as it breaks my heart, I say Schaub by first round knockout.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-5) vs. Forrest Griffin (18-6): A rematch of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Four years ago, Shogun came to the UFC ranked as the best light heavyweight in the world. However, when he made his UFC debut against Griffin he looked completely unconditioned and Forrest caught him with a choke in the closing seconds of the fight to win. Shogun’s had knee troubles and some conditioning issues, as evidenced in his mauling at the hands of Bones Jones earlier this year, so I don’t know if he’ll be able to last much more than a round with the larger Griffin on him. If he is actually healthy and in good condition he could easily take Griffin, but with such a spotty UFC run I don’t know if Shogun is going to be the man he was in Pride. Forrest also worries me since he seems to look at fighting as work and not something he loves doing anymore so who knows what his mindset is. Forrest is coming off a win against Rich Franklin in February and hasn’t had to recover from anything like what Shogun is going through. I think Forrest will win by decision.
Main Event – UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (30-4) vs. Yushin Okami (26-5): This is one of the most important fights of Silva’s career. It was just a year ago that Chael Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva only to be choked out in the final minutes of the fight. With people thinking Silva was now beatable, he went against Vitor Belfort and finished him with a devastating kick in the first round. Now Silva goes against the last man to defeat him. Before both men were in the UFC they faced off in a promotion called Rumble on the Rock. Okami won by disqualification when Silva threw an illegal kick. Okami was given the option to continue but instead took the DQ, which has prompted Silva to call him a coward for the last five years. Yes, that fight was 2006. Since then Silva has reeled off 14 straight wins and cemented himself as the best to ever throw on a pair of gloves.
Okami’s stand up has improved and he has good wrestling, but he also has losses to Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin, fighters who suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Silva. Silva played dead for four and a half rounds against Sonnen, only to come alive and submit him in the closing moments just because Sonnen had offended him in the pre-fight trash talk and Silva wanted to embarrass him. Silva’s had five years to work up any ill will he can for this fight against Okami. The Michael Jordan of MMA steps into the Octagon against the last man to defeat him and does it in front of a massive hometown crowd. Silva is 36 and slowing down, but as he showed to anybody who had their doubts in the Belfort fight he is still the king of MMA. Silva wins by second round TKO.
That’s all I got.
Luiz Cane (11-3, 1NC) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (11-0): Nedkov will be making his UFC debut and I feel a little bad he’s got to go up against a Brazilian in the first major UFC event the country is having. That will put a lot of pressure on him I feel. Meanwhile, I don’t remember seeing Luiz Cane since Rogerio Nogueira finished him two years ago. This is not a fight I’m pretty excited for. I predict Cane by decision.
Ross Pearson (12-4) vs. Edson Barboza (8-0): I would like Barboza a lot more if it were spelled Barbosa like the awesome former Phoenix Sun. As for Ross Pearson, my brother said it best when he said any man named Ross has to make his nickname “The Boss.” Pearson did not adhere to this rule and instead went with “The Real Deal.” Lame nickname and the fact I hate British people except for the most beautiful woman in the world Emily Blunt and the Rolling Stones makes me not want to pick him, as well as the fact British fighters scrap but never seem to win a lot. Barboza is the only man I’ve ever seen with not just one, but TWO wins by TKO due to leg kicks. I’m expecting a Barboza second round TKO.
Brendan Schaub (8-1) vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (32-6-1, 1NC): Big Nog, one of the probably three greatest heavyweights to ever fight, looks to come back after taking more than a year off to fight in his native Brazil for the first time. Nogueira went from never being finished in his epic career in Japan over the course of 9 years, to coming to the UFC and getting knocked out by Frank Mir in 2008, then again by Cain Velasquez in 2009. Big Nog used to have terrific boxing and is most likely the greatest submission specialist in heavyweight history. He has more wins by submission (20) than anybody else I’ve named on this card so far has fights. However he fought sick and injured his last few fights and hasn’t looked like the man he was in Pride FC. Whereas he used to be able to take horrific beatings for 20 minutes and then slap on a submission and win, he now can hardly take a punch. Meanwhile Brendan Schaub looks to finish off the Pride legacy by knocking out Nogueira like he did with Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop just a couple months ago. Big Nog has promised a submission victory for his hometown fans, but I don’t see him having enough left in the tank to deliver. As much as it breaks my heart, I say Schaub by first round knockout.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-5) vs. Forrest Griffin (18-6): A rematch of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Four years ago, Shogun came to the UFC ranked as the best light heavyweight in the world. However, when he made his UFC debut against Griffin he looked completely unconditioned and Forrest caught him with a choke in the closing seconds of the fight to win. Shogun’s had knee troubles and some conditioning issues, as evidenced in his mauling at the hands of Bones Jones earlier this year, so I don’t know if he’ll be able to last much more than a round with the larger Griffin on him. If he is actually healthy and in good condition he could easily take Griffin, but with such a spotty UFC run I don’t know if Shogun is going to be the man he was in Pride. Forrest also worries me since he seems to look at fighting as work and not something he loves doing anymore so who knows what his mindset is. Forrest is coming off a win against Rich Franklin in February and hasn’t had to recover from anything like what Shogun is going through. I think Forrest will win by decision.
Main Event – UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (30-4) vs. Yushin Okami (26-5): This is one of the most important fights of Silva’s career. It was just a year ago that Chael Sonnen nearly won a decision over Silva only to be choked out in the final minutes of the fight. With people thinking Silva was now beatable, he went against Vitor Belfort and finished him with a devastating kick in the first round. Now Silva goes against the last man to defeat him. Before both men were in the UFC they faced off in a promotion called Rumble on the Rock. Okami won by disqualification when Silva threw an illegal kick. Okami was given the option to continue but instead took the DQ, which has prompted Silva to call him a coward for the last five years. Yes, that fight was 2006. Since then Silva has reeled off 14 straight wins and cemented himself as the best to ever throw on a pair of gloves.
Okami’s stand up has improved and he has good wrestling, but he also has losses to Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin, fighters who suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Silva. Silva played dead for four and a half rounds against Sonnen, only to come alive and submit him in the closing moments just because Sonnen had offended him in the pre-fight trash talk and Silva wanted to embarrass him. Silva’s had five years to work up any ill will he can for this fight against Okami. The Michael Jordan of MMA steps into the Octagon against the last man to defeat him and does it in front of a massive hometown crowd. Silva is 36 and slowing down, but as he showed to anybody who had their doubts in the Belfort fight he is still the king of MMA. Silva wins by second round TKO.
That’s all I got.
UFC 134 Predictions
This Saturday is UFC 134 and it is the first event to be held in Brazil in well over a decade. The card is stacked full with Brazilian fighters and is headlined by the UFC Middleweight Champ/greatest fighter ever Anderson Silva against Yushin Okami, the last man to beat him (albeit by a DQ in 2006) with a co-main event rematch between former UFC Light Heavweight Champs in Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Also, Brendan Schaub looks to further earn my ire as he takes on PRIDE legend Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Between the card itself and the audience, which is sure to be rabid, this should be an exciting evening. Let’s get into the card and predictions.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller: This middleweight bout pits Palhares, a submission expert, against the always tough Dan Miller. Miller is always a sympathetic pick since his life story is so depressing, but the fact remains he is 2-3 in his last five fights, while Palhares is 4-1. They both share losses to former UFC fighter Nate Marquardt, albeit both were under controversial circumstances. I’ll cheer for Miller, since Palhares fights dirty by holding on to his submissions long after people tap out and that is unacceptable. If he can keep himself from grappling with Palhares, I would say Miller by decision. But, I do think Palhares is more talented and I think that he can work some effective submission grappling. I don’t think he can submit Miller though, as he is tough to finish. We’ll say Palhares by decision.
Edson Barboza vs. Ross Pearson: Pearson is a solid striker with minimal ground skills from London who joined the UFC after competing on The Ultimate Fighter. Barboza is a rising prospect with vicious Muay Thai who finished an opponent with leg kicks in his UFC debut. This should be an exciting fight that doesn’t go to the ground. Look for Barboza to use those leg kicks to punishing effect on Pearson, who is much more of a traditional boxer. Barboza has the potential to be a contender for the lightweight belt in the next two years or so and his more dynamic skillset on offense should be too much for Pearson. Barboza by 2nd round TKO.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub: I made my feelings on my all-time favorite heavyweight in Nogueira known a few weeks ago with a rather lengthy blog, and I believe I touched on how much I can’t stand Brendan Schaub. He knocked out some schmuck that trains with Lesnar, won a decision over Gabe Gonzaga, and knocked out the ghost of Cro Cop after three rounds of ineffective ground and pound and rabbit punching. He claims to be ready for a title shot and has said that this fight is the one that should make him a contender, one where he called out a veteran who had his best days when Schaub was still trying to hack it as a football player. To be fair, Schaub has decent power, but he really is little more than a prospect. If he had to fight someone like Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, or even Josh Barnett he would get smoked. Instead, he calls out fighters like Cro Cop and Nogueira, big names to fans that are no longer a danger to him. Cro Cop is a shell of a fighter and he almost beat Schaub before the flash KO. If I had any confidence in Nogueira’s ability to come back from his lengthy injury absence or faith in his once vaunted chin, Minotauro would finish this by submission inside of ten minutes. Unfortunately, he has deteriorated a great deal since entering the UFC and I don’t think he can make it that long. As much as I will be rooting for him to turn back time and submit Schaub, I can be realistic enough to know it won’t happen and I’ll just have even more to hate Schaub for. It’s going to be Schaub by 1st round KO, but my inner fanboy picks Nogueira by 2nd round submission (triangle choke).
Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: This is a rematch of Shogun’s 2007 first fight in the UFC, where he badly gassed and was dominated en route to a submission loss to Griffin. Since then, both men’s careers have been mixed. Forrest went from this fight to winning the title against Rampage Jackson, then being finished by Rashad Evans and humiliated by Anderson Silva. He rebounded with a decision (split, although he dominated the fight) win over Tito Ortiz in 2008 and an ugly decision win against Rich Franklin back in February. Shogun had an unimpressive knockout win against Mark Coleman to start 2009, followed it up by knocking out the badly declining Chuck Liddell, and had a series of fights with Lyoto Machida that culminated in him winning the title in May 2010. After that was a lengthy layoff for another knee surgery, followed by a punishing TKO loss to Jon Jones back in March. The biggest questions in this fight are whether Forrest is in better condition than he was in against Franklin and what Shogun Rua will show up? With the exception of the Machida bouts, he has not looked particularly impressive in his UFC run. Injuries were the explanation behind both the Griffin loss and Coleman fight, as well as the Jones fight (although he won’t blame it on that). I tend to lean towards the school of thought that his knees are completely shot and that he looked impressive against Machida due to the fact that he for some reason or another matches up stylistically with him better than anyone else. Forrest should come into this fight with a pretty big size and reach advantage, as well as superior game planning. Shogun is the favorite, but I think that Forrest is a bad match-up for him due to the size mismatch, Griffin having fewer serious injuries, and Forrest’s solidity in both grappling and pace. Despite what ESPN predicts, this is Forrest’s fight to lose. Griffin by decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami: Silva has had a bit of a grudge towards Okami for the 2006 loss that came on an illegal upkick that Silva didn’t know was illegal. He has since claimed that Okami took the win that way, which is fair but cheap, as Silva felt that Okami could have continued the fight. That first bout only lasted two and a half minutes, with Silva outustriking Okami 16-0 and stuffing three of four takedown attempts. Okami should be a tough match for Silva, as the are both similar in size, speed, and reach. The difference is that Silva is a transcendent striker, while Okami is merely average in that department. His takedowns are good, but not Sonnen level and Silva should be able to defend against most of them. I think that this fight is going to be a bit tedious, as Okami is rather methodical (code word for boring) and Silva is not going to push the pace and run into something. It wouldn’t surprise me if Anderson tried to catch the hard to finish Okami with something early, but something tells me the fight won’t go that way, not at this stage in Anderson’s career. As an interesting note that shows the difference between the two men, they have three shared opponents: Rich Franklin, Chael Sonnen, and Nate Marquardt. Okami lost by decision to Rich, decision to Sonnen, and beat Marquardt by decision. Silva knocked out Franklin twice inside of two rounds, choked out Sonnen with a hail mary triangle in the fifth round last year, and knocked out Marquardt in the first round. While Okami is tough, I don’t think he can wrestle a decision from Silva the way Sonnen very nearly did. I imagine this fight consisting of Anderson blocking most takedowns and outstriking Okami by a large margin. As much as I am pumped to see Anderson fight again, as he really is amazing in a once in a lifetime kind of way, I don’t think this will be the most thrilling bout. Silva by 4th round TKO or decision.
That’s it for my picks. Feel free to post yours or hit me up with them on facebook.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller: This middleweight bout pits Palhares, a submission expert, against the always tough Dan Miller. Miller is always a sympathetic pick since his life story is so depressing, but the fact remains he is 2-3 in his last five fights, while Palhares is 4-1. They both share losses to former UFC fighter Nate Marquardt, albeit both were under controversial circumstances. I’ll cheer for Miller, since Palhares fights dirty by holding on to his submissions long after people tap out and that is unacceptable. If he can keep himself from grappling with Palhares, I would say Miller by decision. But, I do think Palhares is more talented and I think that he can work some effective submission grappling. I don’t think he can submit Miller though, as he is tough to finish. We’ll say Palhares by decision.
Edson Barboza vs. Ross Pearson: Pearson is a solid striker with minimal ground skills from London who joined the UFC after competing on The Ultimate Fighter. Barboza is a rising prospect with vicious Muay Thai who finished an opponent with leg kicks in his UFC debut. This should be an exciting fight that doesn’t go to the ground. Look for Barboza to use those leg kicks to punishing effect on Pearson, who is much more of a traditional boxer. Barboza has the potential to be a contender for the lightweight belt in the next two years or so and his more dynamic skillset on offense should be too much for Pearson. Barboza by 2nd round TKO.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub: I made my feelings on my all-time favorite heavyweight in Nogueira known a few weeks ago with a rather lengthy blog, and I believe I touched on how much I can’t stand Brendan Schaub. He knocked out some schmuck that trains with Lesnar, won a decision over Gabe Gonzaga, and knocked out the ghost of Cro Cop after three rounds of ineffective ground and pound and rabbit punching. He claims to be ready for a title shot and has said that this fight is the one that should make him a contender, one where he called out a veteran who had his best days when Schaub was still trying to hack it as a football player. To be fair, Schaub has decent power, but he really is little more than a prospect. If he had to fight someone like Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, or even Josh Barnett he would get smoked. Instead, he calls out fighters like Cro Cop and Nogueira, big names to fans that are no longer a danger to him. Cro Cop is a shell of a fighter and he almost beat Schaub before the flash KO. If I had any confidence in Nogueira’s ability to come back from his lengthy injury absence or faith in his once vaunted chin, Minotauro would finish this by submission inside of ten minutes. Unfortunately, he has deteriorated a great deal since entering the UFC and I don’t think he can make it that long. As much as I will be rooting for him to turn back time and submit Schaub, I can be realistic enough to know it won’t happen and I’ll just have even more to hate Schaub for. It’s going to be Schaub by 1st round KO, but my inner fanboy picks Nogueira by 2nd round submission (triangle choke).
Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: This is a rematch of Shogun’s 2007 first fight in the UFC, where he badly gassed and was dominated en route to a submission loss to Griffin. Since then, both men’s careers have been mixed. Forrest went from this fight to winning the title against Rampage Jackson, then being finished by Rashad Evans and humiliated by Anderson Silva. He rebounded with a decision (split, although he dominated the fight) win over Tito Ortiz in 2008 and an ugly decision win against Rich Franklin back in February. Shogun had an unimpressive knockout win against Mark Coleman to start 2009, followed it up by knocking out the badly declining Chuck Liddell, and had a series of fights with Lyoto Machida that culminated in him winning the title in May 2010. After that was a lengthy layoff for another knee surgery, followed by a punishing TKO loss to Jon Jones back in March. The biggest questions in this fight are whether Forrest is in better condition than he was in against Franklin and what Shogun Rua will show up? With the exception of the Machida bouts, he has not looked particularly impressive in his UFC run. Injuries were the explanation behind both the Griffin loss and Coleman fight, as well as the Jones fight (although he won’t blame it on that). I tend to lean towards the school of thought that his knees are completely shot and that he looked impressive against Machida due to the fact that he for some reason or another matches up stylistically with him better than anyone else. Forrest should come into this fight with a pretty big size and reach advantage, as well as superior game planning. Shogun is the favorite, but I think that Forrest is a bad match-up for him due to the size mismatch, Griffin having fewer serious injuries, and Forrest’s solidity in both grappling and pace. Despite what ESPN predicts, this is Forrest’s fight to lose. Griffin by decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami: Silva has had a bit of a grudge towards Okami for the 2006 loss that came on an illegal upkick that Silva didn’t know was illegal. He has since claimed that Okami took the win that way, which is fair but cheap, as Silva felt that Okami could have continued the fight. That first bout only lasted two and a half minutes, with Silva outustriking Okami 16-0 and stuffing three of four takedown attempts. Okami should be a tough match for Silva, as the are both similar in size, speed, and reach. The difference is that Silva is a transcendent striker, while Okami is merely average in that department. His takedowns are good, but not Sonnen level and Silva should be able to defend against most of them. I think that this fight is going to be a bit tedious, as Okami is rather methodical (code word for boring) and Silva is not going to push the pace and run into something. It wouldn’t surprise me if Anderson tried to catch the hard to finish Okami with something early, but something tells me the fight won’t go that way, not at this stage in Anderson’s career. As an interesting note that shows the difference between the two men, they have three shared opponents: Rich Franklin, Chael Sonnen, and Nate Marquardt. Okami lost by decision to Rich, decision to Sonnen, and beat Marquardt by decision. Silva knocked out Franklin twice inside of two rounds, choked out Sonnen with a hail mary triangle in the fifth round last year, and knocked out Marquardt in the first round. While Okami is tough, I don’t think he can wrestle a decision from Silva the way Sonnen very nearly did. I imagine this fight consisting of Anderson blocking most takedowns and outstriking Okami by a large margin. As much as I am pumped to see Anderson fight again, as he really is amazing in a once in a lifetime kind of way, I don’t think this will be the most thrilling bout. Silva by 4th round TKO or decision.
That’s it for my picks. Feel free to post yours or hit me up with them on facebook.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
PRIDE Chronicle/UFC 134 Preview: Ode to Nogueira
August 27, 2011 marks the UFC’s first show in Brazil in quite some time. It also marks a first in the long and illustrious career of former PRIDE and UFC Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira: his first professional fight in his homeland. It’s also his return to fighting in general after an eighteen month layoff following his February 2010 knockout loss to Cain Velasquez. His opponent is Brendan Schaub, a prospect that the UFC holds in high regards. In all likelihood, Nogueira will not win this fight, and if his recent fights are any sort of arbiter he will be knocked out within the first two rounds.
Being able to predict a knockout loss for Nogueira is something that was unheard of until Frank Mir put him down in December 2008. Prior to that, he had been 31-4-1 and his only losses had been from decisions. Now, he has been finished in two of his last three fights by two men who are not exactly considered power punchers. This, to anyone remotely familiar with Big Nog’s history, is quite a precipitous decline for a man who once possessed an iron chin and could be considered the second greatest heavyweight of all-time.
In PRIDE Nogueira was the longtime heavyweight kingpin, becoming the promotion’s first heavyweight champion in November 2001 and holding the belt until a decision loss to Fedor Emelianenko, a man until recently considered by many to be the greatest fighter in the sport’s history. Nogueira was so dominant that he ran up a record of 18-3-1 in PRIDE, with two of those losses and the draw all coming to Emelianenko. The other loss was a 2006 split decision loss to Josh Barnett that he ended up avenging by winning a rematch three months later.
Nogueira ran the heavyweight gauntlet by being adept at two skills in a division where most men are only really good at one thing. He was an excellent boxer, having fought in the Pan American games and trained with the Cuban National Boxing team. His punches were solid while not being devastating, and his footwork was textbook with very few of the off balance or poorly set up strikes that many MMA fighters are known for. This worked in tandem with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Nogueira is easily the greatest BJJ grappler and practitioner in heavyweight MMA history and will always be regarded as one of the best ever in the field, irrespective of weight class. His BJJ was legendary. On the ground, he would constantly transition from position to position, always looking for a way to finish. If he couldn’t get the triangle he would transition to the armbar, or maybe sweep and go for back control into a rear naked choke. Nogueira’s jiu jitsu skills have always been a thing of beauty. He used them to great effect in PRIDE, finishing the following list of legendary/memorable fighters by submission: Gary Goodridge( first round triangle choke), Mark Coleman (first round triangle armbar), Bob Sapp (second round armbar), Dan Henderson (third round armbar), Mirko Cro Cop (second round armbar), Heath Herring (second round anaconda choke). The Cro Cop victory is particularly notable as it was Mirko’s first loss of any sort in MMA after laying everything to waste in his previous nine fights and remained his only submission loss for seven years, until a submission from strikes against Nogueira protege Junior dos Santos in 2010.
In many ways, Nogueira’s style was similar to Muhammad Ali, particularly the 1970s era Ali. At that point in his career, Ali’s legs were gone and he had to rely heavily on the rope-a-dope routine to win, drawing his opponents into firefights over the first half of a fight to tire them out before unleashing his attack. Nogueira would do similar things. Against Bob Sapp, he allowed himself to get powerbombed on his head and beat on from the ground in order to wear the larger and stronger Sapp down before submitting him. Cro Cop unleashed a devastating head kick in the first round that almost finished the fight at the end of the first round, but Nogueira survived and landed a second round armbar. Dan Henderson ran out of gas in the third round after winning much of their match because he was expending a great deal of energy against the larger Nogueira and was submitted for his effort. Like Ali, this method even worked almost to the end of his career. Ali was able to withstand another beating from Joe Frazier in Manilla in 1975, but he never fully recovered. He survived Ken Norton in 1976 by winning the very last round of their fight and was able to beat Leon Spinks after losing badly to him a few months prior in 1977 and retired as champion, even though the signs of slippage were obvious to anyone who knew Ali. The comparable period for Nogueira would be his UFC stint. Against Heath Herring he was levelled with a head kick in the first round that nearly ended the fight, but he recovered to win a decision. Then he fought Tim Sylvia for the UFC Heavyweight Title. He was knocked down in the first and second rounds and nearly finished, but recovered enough to win in the third round with one of the best set-up and executed guillotine chokes I’ve ever seen. This victory gave Nogueira the distinction of being the only man to win the heavyweight titles in both PRIDE and the UFC. Although it was unknown at the time, in retrospect Big Nog should have retired then and there and sealed his legacy.
In 2008, Nogueira was TKOed by Frank Mir, an outcome no one expected. This was the man who withstood peak Cro Cop and fought Fedor Emelianenko thrice and was never finished. The loss was later blamed on a poor training camp and recovery from staph infection (much like Ali’s loss to Spinks was blamed on underestimating his foe and his 1980 comeback loss to Larry Holmes was blamed on an illness). In honesty, this outcome shouldn’t have been that surprising. Although it is true he was sick, Nogueira had been getting rocked badly in his two previous fights and when taken in conjunction with his illness, the finish made sense.
The illness reasoning made sense when Nogueira managed to come back in his next fight in 2009 and win an exciting, but convincing decision over fellow legend Randy Couture. This match showcased his stand up game, as well as his excellent grappling skills. He was able to transition and work for submissions in a way that hadn’t been seen in years and looked like the Minotauro Nogueira of old. As it turned out, this match and not the Mir fight was the aberration. Just like Ali had the Larry Holmes fight that made his decline explicit, Nogueira would have his.
In February 2010, he locked horns with Cain Velasquez. Most people expected Nogueira to work his jiu jitsu magic and make this a tough fight for the previously untested Cain, but things did not work out that way. In a stand up battle that lasted just over two minutes, Nogueira was badly knocked out. The punches he ate were solid, flush shots from the talented Velasquez, but in the past Nogueira was able to walk through those kinds of shots to at least try to pull guard. Instead, he was out cold.
Since then, he had a September 2010 rematch with Frank Mir cancelled due to multiple injuries requiring surgery and has taken on more of a training role, helping to get Junior dos Santos a title shot against Velasquez. Rumor has it that he is not even close to 100% heading into his fight with Brendan Schaub and recent pictures of him show Big Nog looking a bit out of shape, but he has been insistent that he gets the opportunity to fight in Brazil. In years past, this fight would have been a walk in the park for Nogueira. Schaub has decent takedowns, but his top game has a lot of holes. A BJJ expert like Nogueira should be able to work wonders off his back against Schaub. Schaub’s punches have a decent amount of power, but his technique is still very much a work in progress and exploitable for any of the top level heavyweights. The big problem here is that Nogueira’s chin is not what it once was and his reflexes have obviously diminished. If, and this is a big if, he can survive Schaub’s striking he could turn back time and win this fight in exciting fashion. If he can’t and he loses (especially if he does so badly), he should make this fight in his home country his last fight. His legacy as a fighter is secure as one of the all-time greats and he doesn’t need to let prospects that could never have touched him in his prime make their names off it. Even Ali got out after losing to a nobody named Trevor Berbick, but that is the last thing people think of when discussing his legacy. Even if Nogueira’s night and career end with a loss to Brendan Schaub, he should and will still be remembered as one of the greats MMA has ever seen.
Being able to predict a knockout loss for Nogueira is something that was unheard of until Frank Mir put him down in December 2008. Prior to that, he had been 31-4-1 and his only losses had been from decisions. Now, he has been finished in two of his last three fights by two men who are not exactly considered power punchers. This, to anyone remotely familiar with Big Nog’s history, is quite a precipitous decline for a man who once possessed an iron chin and could be considered the second greatest heavyweight of all-time.
In PRIDE Nogueira was the longtime heavyweight kingpin, becoming the promotion’s first heavyweight champion in November 2001 and holding the belt until a decision loss to Fedor Emelianenko, a man until recently considered by many to be the greatest fighter in the sport’s history. Nogueira was so dominant that he ran up a record of 18-3-1 in PRIDE, with two of those losses and the draw all coming to Emelianenko. The other loss was a 2006 split decision loss to Josh Barnett that he ended up avenging by winning a rematch three months later.
Nogueira ran the heavyweight gauntlet by being adept at two skills in a division where most men are only really good at one thing. He was an excellent boxer, having fought in the Pan American games and trained with the Cuban National Boxing team. His punches were solid while not being devastating, and his footwork was textbook with very few of the off balance or poorly set up strikes that many MMA fighters are known for. This worked in tandem with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Nogueira is easily the greatest BJJ grappler and practitioner in heavyweight MMA history and will always be regarded as one of the best ever in the field, irrespective of weight class. His BJJ was legendary. On the ground, he would constantly transition from position to position, always looking for a way to finish. If he couldn’t get the triangle he would transition to the armbar, or maybe sweep and go for back control into a rear naked choke. Nogueira’s jiu jitsu skills have always been a thing of beauty. He used them to great effect in PRIDE, finishing the following list of legendary/memorable fighters by submission: Gary Goodridge( first round triangle choke), Mark Coleman (first round triangle armbar), Bob Sapp (second round armbar), Dan Henderson (third round armbar), Mirko Cro Cop (second round armbar), Heath Herring (second round anaconda choke). The Cro Cop victory is particularly notable as it was Mirko’s first loss of any sort in MMA after laying everything to waste in his previous nine fights and remained his only submission loss for seven years, until a submission from strikes against Nogueira protege Junior dos Santos in 2010.
In many ways, Nogueira’s style was similar to Muhammad Ali, particularly the 1970s era Ali. At that point in his career, Ali’s legs were gone and he had to rely heavily on the rope-a-dope routine to win, drawing his opponents into firefights over the first half of a fight to tire them out before unleashing his attack. Nogueira would do similar things. Against Bob Sapp, he allowed himself to get powerbombed on his head and beat on from the ground in order to wear the larger and stronger Sapp down before submitting him. Cro Cop unleashed a devastating head kick in the first round that almost finished the fight at the end of the first round, but Nogueira survived and landed a second round armbar. Dan Henderson ran out of gas in the third round after winning much of their match because he was expending a great deal of energy against the larger Nogueira and was submitted for his effort. Like Ali, this method even worked almost to the end of his career. Ali was able to withstand another beating from Joe Frazier in Manilla in 1975, but he never fully recovered. He survived Ken Norton in 1976 by winning the very last round of their fight and was able to beat Leon Spinks after losing badly to him a few months prior in 1977 and retired as champion, even though the signs of slippage were obvious to anyone who knew Ali. The comparable period for Nogueira would be his UFC stint. Against Heath Herring he was levelled with a head kick in the first round that nearly ended the fight, but he recovered to win a decision. Then he fought Tim Sylvia for the UFC Heavyweight Title. He was knocked down in the first and second rounds and nearly finished, but recovered enough to win in the third round with one of the best set-up and executed guillotine chokes I’ve ever seen. This victory gave Nogueira the distinction of being the only man to win the heavyweight titles in both PRIDE and the UFC. Although it was unknown at the time, in retrospect Big Nog should have retired then and there and sealed his legacy.
In 2008, Nogueira was TKOed by Frank Mir, an outcome no one expected. This was the man who withstood peak Cro Cop and fought Fedor Emelianenko thrice and was never finished. The loss was later blamed on a poor training camp and recovery from staph infection (much like Ali’s loss to Spinks was blamed on underestimating his foe and his 1980 comeback loss to Larry Holmes was blamed on an illness). In honesty, this outcome shouldn’t have been that surprising. Although it is true he was sick, Nogueira had been getting rocked badly in his two previous fights and when taken in conjunction with his illness, the finish made sense.
The illness reasoning made sense when Nogueira managed to come back in his next fight in 2009 and win an exciting, but convincing decision over fellow legend Randy Couture. This match showcased his stand up game, as well as his excellent grappling skills. He was able to transition and work for submissions in a way that hadn’t been seen in years and looked like the Minotauro Nogueira of old. As it turned out, this match and not the Mir fight was the aberration. Just like Ali had the Larry Holmes fight that made his decline explicit, Nogueira would have his.
In February 2010, he locked horns with Cain Velasquez. Most people expected Nogueira to work his jiu jitsu magic and make this a tough fight for the previously untested Cain, but things did not work out that way. In a stand up battle that lasted just over two minutes, Nogueira was badly knocked out. The punches he ate were solid, flush shots from the talented Velasquez, but in the past Nogueira was able to walk through those kinds of shots to at least try to pull guard. Instead, he was out cold.
Since then, he had a September 2010 rematch with Frank Mir cancelled due to multiple injuries requiring surgery and has taken on more of a training role, helping to get Junior dos Santos a title shot against Velasquez. Rumor has it that he is not even close to 100% heading into his fight with Brendan Schaub and recent pictures of him show Big Nog looking a bit out of shape, but he has been insistent that he gets the opportunity to fight in Brazil. In years past, this fight would have been a walk in the park for Nogueira. Schaub has decent takedowns, but his top game has a lot of holes. A BJJ expert like Nogueira should be able to work wonders off his back against Schaub. Schaub’s punches have a decent amount of power, but his technique is still very much a work in progress and exploitable for any of the top level heavyweights. The big problem here is that Nogueira’s chin is not what it once was and his reflexes have obviously diminished. If, and this is a big if, he can survive Schaub’s striking he could turn back time and win this fight in exciting fashion. If he can’t and he loses (especially if he does so badly), he should make this fight in his home country his last fight. His legacy as a fighter is secure as one of the all-time greats and he doesn’t need to let prospects that could never have touched him in his prime make their names off it. Even Ali got out after losing to a nobody named Trevor Berbick, but that is the last thing people think of when discussing his legacy. Even if Nogueira’s night and career end with a loss to Brendan Schaub, he should and will still be remembered as one of the greats MMA has ever seen.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Fedor vs. Henderson: The Aftermath
At this past weekend’s Strikeforce card, Dan Henderson put an exclaimation point on his resume and justified his position as one of the all time greats in MMA history by defeating Fedor Emelianenko by first round TKO. While Hendo furthered his legacy, Fedor is continuing the downward slide started in 2009 and is now having his legacy questioned. I feel like getting into that, as well as discussing what comes next for both men. We’ll start with the winner, Dan Henderson.
Where does Hendo go from here?
Henderson scored one of the biggest wins of his career, probably his biggest since icing Wanderlei Silva in 2006 by defeating the longtime heavyweight great. The victory fulfilled his contract with Strikeforce, leaving him with few options. His deal with the organization was for $800,000 a fight, a fee that the UFC felt was too much. Now that Zuffa owns both organizations, one can expect that Hendo will not be as well compensated in the future. If there’s any justice however, he will be well compensated with a return to the UFC, where there are a few interesting fights left for him.
A rematch with Anderson Silva for the UFC Middleweight Title could make sense, especially because he was one of the top contenders when he left the UFC. In theory, once Silva beats Okami there is no one left for him to fight and Henderson has enough name recognition and is coming in off a nice little win streak that this could be a compelling fight for pay per view. Henderson wouldn’t win of course, as he is nowhere near as dynamic at 185 lbs. as he is at light heavyweight. Weighing roughly 200 lbs., Hendo is a small light heavyweight, but it seems like that is where he has his most success.
Right now, the UFC’s light heavyweight picture is a bit muddled and Henderson could make for some interesting fights. I think the best bet would be to put him up against either A) Lyoto Machida or B) the winner of Shogun Rua and Forrest Griffin, with the winner getting a title shot after the winner of Rashad Evans-Tito Ortiz faces the winner of Jon Jones-Rampage Jackson. If the plan is to put Lyoto Machida in the title picture sooner rather than later and/or get him another fight before the end of the year, that would be the way to go. If the plan is to feed Jones another challenger (because he’s going to beat Rampage and probably beat Rashad/Tito), then let him fight Shogun or Griffin. That fight would be very exciting and could put forth a credible challenger for the title. Either route they go with would be interesting.
A third option is to retire. Dan’s 40 years old and his value as a fighter isn’t going to get any higher. Retiring after beating Fedor gives him an exciting victory over a legend to go out on and allows him to leave on his own terms and not because he is a human punching bag. Besides, the odds of him winning a title in the UFC are not good. He could retire after a winning streak that ran counter to the “Decision Dan” nickname since he won all three fights by knockout. I repeat, things will never be this good for Dan Henderson again and by retiring now, he could keep a strong legacy and not have his name be used as a feeder for the next generation.
Where does Fedor go from here?
Has anyone fallen so far as Fedor Emelianenko in the past two years? He has gone from being considered the greatest heavyweight of all-time and possibly the greatest fighter of all-time, winner of 31 straight fights to three straight losses ended by a decisive finish. It has called into question whether or not he is overrated and if so, for how long.
The answer to that is, yes, he has been overrated over the past three years. The last opponent of any real value he beat was Andrei Arlovski. Since then, he beat the since proven to be little more than a prospect Brett Rogers, and lost three in a row. Fedor hasn’t been the best heavyweight in the world since 2007. His last few fights have shown him to be far from the man that beat prime Nogueira twice and defeated prime Cro Cop. PRIDE era Fedor was most likely the best heavyweight in the world, and due to his amazing streak of wins was likely the pound for pound best at that time and if not, was in the top three.
Since 2007, he ceded that territory to Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre, two champions that have both gone on lengthy winning streaks against competition far superior to that which Fedor faced at the tail end of his run at the top. Silva’s run has been particularly impressive and the case can and should be made that he is the best of the last half of the decade and as of right now, the greatest fighter of all-time. Middleweight requires a far more diverse set of skills than heavyweight, where one really only needs to excel in one form of combat to succeed. This is part of the reason why Fedor and his camp balked at a move to light heavyweight. If he was to move down in weight, he would still be slower and less skilled overall than someone coming up like Jon Jones or a top contender like Lyoto Machida. I don’t mean to dump on the guy or belittle his accomplishments. He is a legend in the sport and for a long period of time had the aura of invincibility. Especially when one considers Randy Couture’s run came as a light heavyweight and not solely as a heavyweight,, Fedor still should be thought of right now as the greatest heavyweight of all-time.
That being said, he should retire. His training isn’t as intense as needed for the new era of MMA and his skill set hasn’t evolved enough to continue. He makes simple mistakes (ex. the Werdum fight) that he wouldn’t have made five years ago. In his peak, he could beat behemoths like Bob Sapp or withstand strikes from Mirko Cro Cop, but the other night Dan Henderson was able to sweep and blast him and Hendo is considerably smaller than Fedor. He was manhandled by Bigfoot Silva when in years past, he would have worked for a submission or been able to mount some kind of defense and offense. Unlike Randy Couture and Dan Henderson, Fedor hasn’t made the necessary adjustments as he has gotten older in order to continue his career and it doesn’t particularly seem like that bothers him. That’s why he should retire. He isn’t completely finished like Cro Cop or Nogueira, but he can’t compete with the top 10 in the division anymore and for someone who used to be so dominant, that should mean that its time to hang ‘em up. He can retire knowing that he put on an exciting back and forth fight, even if it ended in defeat, and that’s something a lot of his peers from PRIDE cannot say.
Where does Hendo go from here?
Henderson scored one of the biggest wins of his career, probably his biggest since icing Wanderlei Silva in 2006 by defeating the longtime heavyweight great. The victory fulfilled his contract with Strikeforce, leaving him with few options. His deal with the organization was for $800,000 a fight, a fee that the UFC felt was too much. Now that Zuffa owns both organizations, one can expect that Hendo will not be as well compensated in the future. If there’s any justice however, he will be well compensated with a return to the UFC, where there are a few interesting fights left for him.
A rematch with Anderson Silva for the UFC Middleweight Title could make sense, especially because he was one of the top contenders when he left the UFC. In theory, once Silva beats Okami there is no one left for him to fight and Henderson has enough name recognition and is coming in off a nice little win streak that this could be a compelling fight for pay per view. Henderson wouldn’t win of course, as he is nowhere near as dynamic at 185 lbs. as he is at light heavyweight. Weighing roughly 200 lbs., Hendo is a small light heavyweight, but it seems like that is where he has his most success.
Right now, the UFC’s light heavyweight picture is a bit muddled and Henderson could make for some interesting fights. I think the best bet would be to put him up against either A) Lyoto Machida or B) the winner of Shogun Rua and Forrest Griffin, with the winner getting a title shot after the winner of Rashad Evans-Tito Ortiz faces the winner of Jon Jones-Rampage Jackson. If the plan is to put Lyoto Machida in the title picture sooner rather than later and/or get him another fight before the end of the year, that would be the way to go. If the plan is to feed Jones another challenger (because he’s going to beat Rampage and probably beat Rashad/Tito), then let him fight Shogun or Griffin. That fight would be very exciting and could put forth a credible challenger for the title. Either route they go with would be interesting.
A third option is to retire. Dan’s 40 years old and his value as a fighter isn’t going to get any higher. Retiring after beating Fedor gives him an exciting victory over a legend to go out on and allows him to leave on his own terms and not because he is a human punching bag. Besides, the odds of him winning a title in the UFC are not good. He could retire after a winning streak that ran counter to the “Decision Dan” nickname since he won all three fights by knockout. I repeat, things will never be this good for Dan Henderson again and by retiring now, he could keep a strong legacy and not have his name be used as a feeder for the next generation.
Where does Fedor go from here?
Has anyone fallen so far as Fedor Emelianenko in the past two years? He has gone from being considered the greatest heavyweight of all-time and possibly the greatest fighter of all-time, winner of 31 straight fights to three straight losses ended by a decisive finish. It has called into question whether or not he is overrated and if so, for how long.
The answer to that is, yes, he has been overrated over the past three years. The last opponent of any real value he beat was Andrei Arlovski. Since then, he beat the since proven to be little more than a prospect Brett Rogers, and lost three in a row. Fedor hasn’t been the best heavyweight in the world since 2007. His last few fights have shown him to be far from the man that beat prime Nogueira twice and defeated prime Cro Cop. PRIDE era Fedor was most likely the best heavyweight in the world, and due to his amazing streak of wins was likely the pound for pound best at that time and if not, was in the top three.
Since 2007, he ceded that territory to Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre, two champions that have both gone on lengthy winning streaks against competition far superior to that which Fedor faced at the tail end of his run at the top. Silva’s run has been particularly impressive and the case can and should be made that he is the best of the last half of the decade and as of right now, the greatest fighter of all-time. Middleweight requires a far more diverse set of skills than heavyweight, where one really only needs to excel in one form of combat to succeed. This is part of the reason why Fedor and his camp balked at a move to light heavyweight. If he was to move down in weight, he would still be slower and less skilled overall than someone coming up like Jon Jones or a top contender like Lyoto Machida. I don’t mean to dump on the guy or belittle his accomplishments. He is a legend in the sport and for a long period of time had the aura of invincibility. Especially when one considers Randy Couture’s run came as a light heavyweight and not solely as a heavyweight,, Fedor still should be thought of right now as the greatest heavyweight of all-time.
That being said, he should retire. His training isn’t as intense as needed for the new era of MMA and his skill set hasn’t evolved enough to continue. He makes simple mistakes (ex. the Werdum fight) that he wouldn’t have made five years ago. In his peak, he could beat behemoths like Bob Sapp or withstand strikes from Mirko Cro Cop, but the other night Dan Henderson was able to sweep and blast him and Hendo is considerably smaller than Fedor. He was manhandled by Bigfoot Silva when in years past, he would have worked for a submission or been able to mount some kind of defense and offense. Unlike Randy Couture and Dan Henderson, Fedor hasn’t made the necessary adjustments as he has gotten older in order to continue his career and it doesn’t particularly seem like that bothers him. That’s why he should retire. He isn’t completely finished like Cro Cop or Nogueira, but he can’t compete with the top 10 in the division anymore and for someone who used to be so dominant, that should mean that its time to hang ‘em up. He can retire knowing that he put on an exciting back and forth fight, even if it ended in defeat, and that’s something a lot of his peers from PRIDE cannot say.
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