This Saturday is UFC 134 and it is the first event to be held in Brazil in well over a decade. The card is stacked full with Brazilian fighters and is headlined by the UFC Middleweight Champ/greatest fighter ever Anderson Silva against Yushin Okami, the last man to beat him (albeit by a DQ in 2006) with a co-main event rematch between former UFC Light Heavweight Champs in Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Also, Brendan Schaub looks to further earn my ire as he takes on PRIDE legend Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Between the card itself and the audience, which is sure to be rabid, this should be an exciting evening. Let’s get into the card and predictions.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller: This middleweight bout pits Palhares, a submission expert, against the always tough Dan Miller. Miller is always a sympathetic pick since his life story is so depressing, but the fact remains he is 2-3 in his last five fights, while Palhares is 4-1. They both share losses to former UFC fighter Nate Marquardt, albeit both were under controversial circumstances. I’ll cheer for Miller, since Palhares fights dirty by holding on to his submissions long after people tap out and that is unacceptable. If he can keep himself from grappling with Palhares, I would say Miller by decision. But, I do think Palhares is more talented and I think that he can work some effective submission grappling. I don’t think he can submit Miller though, as he is tough to finish. We’ll say Palhares by decision.
Edson Barboza vs. Ross Pearson: Pearson is a solid striker with minimal ground skills from London who joined the UFC after competing on The Ultimate Fighter. Barboza is a rising prospect with vicious Muay Thai who finished an opponent with leg kicks in his UFC debut. This should be an exciting fight that doesn’t go to the ground. Look for Barboza to use those leg kicks to punishing effect on Pearson, who is much more of a traditional boxer. Barboza has the potential to be a contender for the lightweight belt in the next two years or so and his more dynamic skillset on offense should be too much for Pearson. Barboza by 2nd round TKO.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub: I made my feelings on my all-time favorite heavyweight in Nogueira known a few weeks ago with a rather lengthy blog, and I believe I touched on how much I can’t stand Brendan Schaub. He knocked out some schmuck that trains with Lesnar, won a decision over Gabe Gonzaga, and knocked out the ghost of Cro Cop after three rounds of ineffective ground and pound and rabbit punching. He claims to be ready for a title shot and has said that this fight is the one that should make him a contender, one where he called out a veteran who had his best days when Schaub was still trying to hack it as a football player. To be fair, Schaub has decent power, but he really is little more than a prospect. If he had to fight someone like Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, or even Josh Barnett he would get smoked. Instead, he calls out fighters like Cro Cop and Nogueira, big names to fans that are no longer a danger to him. Cro Cop is a shell of a fighter and he almost beat Schaub before the flash KO. If I had any confidence in Nogueira’s ability to come back from his lengthy injury absence or faith in his once vaunted chin, Minotauro would finish this by submission inside of ten minutes. Unfortunately, he has deteriorated a great deal since entering the UFC and I don’t think he can make it that long. As much as I will be rooting for him to turn back time and submit Schaub, I can be realistic enough to know it won’t happen and I’ll just have even more to hate Schaub for. It’s going to be Schaub by 1st round KO, but my inner fanboy picks Nogueira by 2nd round submission (triangle choke).
Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: This is a rematch of Shogun’s 2007 first fight in the UFC, where he badly gassed and was dominated en route to a submission loss to Griffin. Since then, both men’s careers have been mixed. Forrest went from this fight to winning the title against Rampage Jackson, then being finished by Rashad Evans and humiliated by Anderson Silva. He rebounded with a decision (split, although he dominated the fight) win over Tito Ortiz in 2008 and an ugly decision win against Rich Franklin back in February. Shogun had an unimpressive knockout win against Mark Coleman to start 2009, followed it up by knocking out the badly declining Chuck Liddell, and had a series of fights with Lyoto Machida that culminated in him winning the title in May 2010. After that was a lengthy layoff for another knee surgery, followed by a punishing TKO loss to Jon Jones back in March. The biggest questions in this fight are whether Forrest is in better condition than he was in against Franklin and what Shogun Rua will show up? With the exception of the Machida bouts, he has not looked particularly impressive in his UFC run. Injuries were the explanation behind both the Griffin loss and Coleman fight, as well as the Jones fight (although he won’t blame it on that). I tend to lean towards the school of thought that his knees are completely shot and that he looked impressive against Machida due to the fact that he for some reason or another matches up stylistically with him better than anyone else. Forrest should come into this fight with a pretty big size and reach advantage, as well as superior game planning. Shogun is the favorite, but I think that Forrest is a bad match-up for him due to the size mismatch, Griffin having fewer serious injuries, and Forrest’s solidity in both grappling and pace. Despite what ESPN predicts, this is Forrest’s fight to lose. Griffin by decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami: Silva has had a bit of a grudge towards Okami for the 2006 loss that came on an illegal upkick that Silva didn’t know was illegal. He has since claimed that Okami took the win that way, which is fair but cheap, as Silva felt that Okami could have continued the fight. That first bout only lasted two and a half minutes, with Silva outustriking Okami 16-0 and stuffing three of four takedown attempts. Okami should be a tough match for Silva, as the are both similar in size, speed, and reach. The difference is that Silva is a transcendent striker, while Okami is merely average in that department. His takedowns are good, but not Sonnen level and Silva should be able to defend against most of them. I think that this fight is going to be a bit tedious, as Okami is rather methodical (code word for boring) and Silva is not going to push the pace and run into something. It wouldn’t surprise me if Anderson tried to catch the hard to finish Okami with something early, but something tells me the fight won’t go that way, not at this stage in Anderson’s career. As an interesting note that shows the difference between the two men, they have three shared opponents: Rich Franklin, Chael Sonnen, and Nate Marquardt. Okami lost by decision to Rich, decision to Sonnen, and beat Marquardt by decision. Silva knocked out Franklin twice inside of two rounds, choked out Sonnen with a hail mary triangle in the fifth round last year, and knocked out Marquardt in the first round. While Okami is tough, I don’t think he can wrestle a decision from Silva the way Sonnen very nearly did. I imagine this fight consisting of Anderson blocking most takedowns and outstriking Okami by a large margin. As much as I am pumped to see Anderson fight again, as he really is amazing in a once in a lifetime kind of way, I don’t think this will be the most thrilling bout. Silva by 4th round TKO or decision.
That’s it for my picks. Feel free to post yours or hit me up with them on facebook.
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