Zuffacaps off another year of big fights on Friday, December 30 with UFC 141. It features a massive main event, both literally and figuratively, as Brock Lesnar returns to the Octagon after a lengthy battle with diverticulitis and takes on fellow behemoth Alistair “the Demoltion Man” Overeem for the right to take on Junior Dos Santos in a title fight next year. The co-main event features what should be a very exciting lightweight scrap between Nate Diaz and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. The rest of the card is a little “meh,” but with Brock Lesnar’s return the UFC doesn’t need to stack the card to increase interest. To be fair, it is still a better undercard than Penn/Diaz and Rampage/Hamill. Let’s get into it.
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes: This is a featherweight bout featuring one dude I’ve never heard of (Hettes) against someone I don’t care for (Phan). Hettes looks like he is a prospect with sick submission skills and Phan is a striker who has fought Leonard Garcia twice in the past year, losing one questionably and almost getting knocked out while dominating the second. I wasn’t impressed with Phan in his win against Garcia and he lost to Mike Thomas Brown, who has seen better days. Hettes beat some dude from the same season of the Ultimate Fighter Phan was on, so I assume this fight is to build him up some more. I’m going to go with Hettes by second round submission.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Matyushenko has been fighting MMA since the USSR collapsed and Gustafsson is supposed to be part of the future of the light heavyweight division. This should be a real test of where he stands, as “The Janitor” should be a game opponent for Gustafsson. Vlad really only loses to the top level guys, or people on their way to that point. His only defeats are to Jon Jones (2010), Little Nog (2009), Andrei Arlovski (2003), Tito Ortiz (2001), and Vernon White (1999). Gustafsson recently beat Matt Hamill to a pulp (and into retirement) and has looked much improved since his loss to fellow up and comer Phil Davis last year. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gustafsson to dominate. Matyushenko needs to grapple and grind away to win. Gustafsson thwarted Hamill’s wrestling based game; I expect him to do the same to Matyushenko. I don’t know that he’ll finish him, so let’s say Gustafsson by decision.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: No one took the news of GSP’s injury better than Fitch, I presume. The perennial number 2 welterweight in the world could potentially get himself in a title fight next year if he continues his winning ways here. His opponent, Hendricks, is no pushover though. Hendricks is also a wrestling based fighter, with top notch NCAA credentials, but can also trade on the feet (unlike Fitch). I expect this fight to be a bit of a snoozer, as Jon Fitch fights make me weep if I manage to stay awake through them. I really can’t decide who I want to win, as Fitch is dull and Hendricks spells his first name like a goof. People seem to think Hendricks has a good chance to win this and I feel like Fitch hasn’t looked great in his past few fights, but he is still the most dominant UFC fighter not named St. Pierre or Silva in the past five years. With a potential chance at a title shot, I expect him to put forth a better effort than lately, where it seems like he was treading water because he knew he wasn’t getting GSP again. Fitch by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone: Cerrone has been on a tear this year, going 4-0 since joining the UFC after the WEC was closed for business. He is looking for a fifth win in 2011, an impressive feat to be sure. Diaz is looking refreshed since moving back to lightweight after a stint at welterweight. Diaz looked great against the ghost of Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 and Cerrone crushed Dennis Siver at UFC 137. The winner of this fight could be a fringe title contender next year, probably only needing one more win to get a shot. Diaz struggles against wrestlers with strong top games and Cerrone struggles against Ben Henderson, so neither of their weaknesses should come into play here. I lean towards Diaz, due to the fact he has fought consistently tougher competition the past several years and I like the way the Diaz brothers throw down. In what should be the fight of the night, Diaz by decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: This is like Thor vs. the Incredible Hulk, two monsters in the cage going at it. There are so many questions going into this fight. For Lesnar - 1.) Is he in good health after battling diverticulitis for the past two years? 2.) Is he still afraid to get punched? 3.) Have his overall skills improved? 4.) Does he still have the dominant wrestling he used against Frank Mir? For Overeem - 1.) Can he stop Lesnar’s takedowns/can he keep the fight standing? 2.) Have the steroid allegations and his mother’s illness distracted him? 3.) Is he underestimating Lesnar by looking past him? 4.) Is he all hype, or actually a legit top 5 heavyweight? Lesnar’s inability to set up takedowns because of his poor striking game was exposed by Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, but both of those men have extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds. Overeem is not a wrestling machine and has not ever fought someone with Lesnar’s skill in that department. Two things can happen when Lesnar comes in with that chest high takedown he goes for when he is trying to avoid striking - 1.) he could walk right into one of Overeem’s lethal knee strikes or patented standing guillotine or 2.) Overeem could get bulldozed into the mat and be at the mercy of Lesnar’s vicious ground strikes. If Lesnar doesn’t establish the takedown, I don’t have much faith in his abilities to stand with the Reem. Cain Velasquez was able to tee off on Brock and he is nowhere near Overeem’s level of striker. If it stays standing, I expect Overeem to finish within two rounds. For Overeem, he needs to defend the takedown and get up quickly if brought down. Just as importantly, he needs to do this without gassing out. I have no faith in his abilities to persevere through a round or two of takedowns and ground and pound. I tend to think that Overeem’s takedown defense (his biggest weakness) is not nearly as crippling as Lesnar’s weakness in responding to strikes. On the other hand, I feel like Lesnar may be able to turn a knee to the body into a takedown. He seems to be able physically to take a shot, but not mentally. If he eats a hard punch or knee to the face, he’s done. I think this is what happens. Lesnar is going to come out blazing for a takedown. If he gets it, he pounds on Overeem en route to a second round TKO. If he doesn’t, he gets caught and stumbles. From there, Overeem blasts away with knees to the body and punches and gets a first round TKO. I’m torn over which option happens. In some ways it doesn’t matter because I think Junior Dos Santos can beat both men, although the Reem would be tougher for him. Let’s go Overeem by first round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
UFC 140 Predictions
It’s that time again. UFC 140 is this weekend and it features a huge main event, as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones makes his second defense in the past three months and fights for the fourth time this year as he takes on former champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Also in action are the Nogueira twins, as Big Nog faces Frank Mir in a rematch of his first ever knockout defeat in 2008 and Little Nog faces off against the former “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” and current self-proclaimed “People’s Champ” Tito Ortiz. All in all, it should make for an interesting night of fights.
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.
Joe's UFC 140 Predictions
Another big UFC card is upon us! Jon Jones looks to cement his place at the top of the division against Lyoto Machida, Minotauro Nogueira looks to prove the first time Frank Mir beat him was a fluke, and Tito Ortiz is out to show he's still got something left in the tank. The three big fights should be pretty awesome and I'm pretty pumped for the card. Here's how it will go down:
Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.
Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.
Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.
For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.
Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.
Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.
Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.
For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.
Friday, December 2, 2011
A Rant on WWE's Lame Attempts to Keep John Cena a Face
Since winning the WWE Championship at WrestleMania 21 in April of 2005, World Wrestling Entertainment has pushed John Cena as the big star of the company. Cena was made to be “the guy” in the company for three years, and as the WWE’s product shifted from TV-14 to TV-PG in late 2008, Cena took on the role of a modern day Hulk Hogan and his push as "the guy" was increased tenfold. He is a hero to the children. A character who stands for America and the ideal that you should never give up no matter what. Children are part of the “Cenation” and their support gives Cena this superhuman ability to lay around and do nothing for 20 minutes, only to spring to life and do five moves to win. This gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan back during the 80s, but in this day and age it just doesn’t fly.
Four months after Cena became champion and received the push to become the modern day Hulk Hogan, he started hearing boos from the crowds. Women and little kids may have bought into the hype, but men weren’t having any of it. Cena was booed in his feud with Chris Jericho in the summer of 2005, and it only got more intense from there. From the end of his Jericho feud all the way to January of 2006, Cena was feuding with Kurt Angle. Cena was still supposed to be the hero but Angle was receiving a lot of cheers from the crowd. In January of 06 Cena defended his WWE Championship in an elimination chamber match at New Years Revolution and was booed the entire match. After Cena won, Edge came out to cash in his guaranteed championship match and despite being one of the biggest heels (bad guys) in the company Edge received enormous fanfare after he beat Cena to win the title. In feuds with Triple H and Shawn Michaels they had Cena win the matches but he lost the popularity contests badly.
This has been the case for six years now. Cena has been pushed as the face (good guy) but constantly receives mixed reactions or sometimes even straight up boos. The reason for this is simple: Cena’s corny and has been shoved down the fans’ throats. The gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan in the 80s because people wanted a superhero character and there had never been one like that in wrestling before and it came naturally. The fans made Hogan a star, whereas the WWE has decided Cena is their star. Cena has been force fed to the fans and acts like he’s some kind of American hero but it is just silly. Hogan’s whole “Real American” thing was borne out of the Cold War. Rocky even went to Russia to fight Drago in Rocky IV in the mid 80s. Hogan was able to do what he did because it had never been seen in the wrestling world before and it came across as genuine and was perfrect for the time period. But even then, after a few years people grew weary of Hulkamania. In the 90s things started to change.
People got tired of Hulkamania after a few years because it was the same thing every time. Hogan was going to get beat up then shake his arms and hit a few moves and win. He would cut the same promo about the power of Hulkamania. People didn’t want to see it anymore. The WWF (that’s right, the good ol’ pre-WWE days) went about keeping him a good guy by doing stupid things like playing up the American hero routine. They turned Sgt. Slaughter, an American patriot, into an Iraqi sympathizer and friend of Saddam Hussein and had Hogan beat him to defend the honor of America. It was a ridiculous storyline and a cheap way to keep Hogan face. The WWF even ignored Sid Justice being cheered for throwing Hulk Hogan out in the 1992 Royal Rumble. Hulkamania was right for the time and people loved it, but as the times changed it became lame. With wrestling getting edgier with characters like Stone Cold Steve Austin and D-Generation X in the late 90s, the cartoon superhero character was done.
Aside from little kids and women, nobody buys into Cena because his character is ridiculously corny in this day and age. Older fans remember guys like Stone Cold and The Rock and know Cena is a bad rip off of Hogan. WWE has made the mistake of putting Cena up against guys who are obviously more charismatic and better workers than he is. Sure Hogan wasn’t a very good worker, but in terms of natural charisma he was nearly untouchable. Cena doesn’t have that. What person old enough to understand anything is going to cheer for Cena over somebody like Kurt Angle or Chris Jericho or Michaels or Triple H? Those guys are phenomenal workers (sans Triple H) and great promo guys. Cena’s promos involve corny yelling and they make him come across like Vin Diesel. For years Cena’s promos consisted of gay jokes, yelling, and making stupid jokes like saying people with annoying voices sound like two old cats trying to have sex. Now he’s just thrown out the gay jokes since it is TV-PG.
What is better is the fact that Hogan had a run at the top as the biggest face on the planet for years while Cena’s run hardly lasted a few months before he started to hear it from the crowds. Rather than turn him heel and make things really interesting, the WWE has taken idiotic steps to keep him as a good guy. First they had commentators acknowledge the boos and say he’s “the most controversial superstar” in the history of this business. That’s a nice way of saying, “We hear your boos and although we can’t drown out your boos we know we’ll make a shit ton of money off little kids’ parents buying Cena’s shit so we’re not turning him heel anytime ever.” Second, they put him up against weak competition so he could look like a hero. They gave guys like Umaga, whose gimmick was that he was a Samoan savage and never spoke any kind of language other than nonsensical screaming, and Sheamus, a big Irish dude whose gimmick is that he’s an Irish warrior, feuds for the WWE title just so Cena would have a bad guy to play off of. Sheamus even won the belt. That guy never deserved to hold a belt that people like Mr. Perfect and Roddy Piper never had, but WWE put it on him just to make Cena look like a hero when he got it back.
The lamest tactic the WWE has used in keeping Cena face is the use of American imagery in his gimmick. It is nice that John Cena loves America and the troops but it is a lame and corny tool used to keep him in the fan’s good graces. They have Cena salute all the time and wear camo shorts sometimes to show his respect for the armed forces. Most of his shirts involve a red, white, and blue color scheme. The top light bar on the Titantron (entrance stage in real person speak, Titantron in the WWE) is an American flag during his entrance. This isn’t like the Cold War era that Hogan found himself in where he’s fighting Russians. There is no foreign threat to America that Cena is up against, they are just shamelessly putting American stuff on his merchandise to make him seem like he’s a good young man. It is good he loves his country but that’s a cheap marketing trick to get a cheap pop from the crowd rather than a piece of his character. And while it works for little kids and women, the biggest demographic in the business isn’t buying it.
People say WWE fans “love to hate” Cena. You love to hate somebody when you know deep down they’re awesome but you play along with the business and boo them regardless like with somebody like Mr. Perfect or something. Cena is booed because wrestling fans aren’t idiots and won’t be told who to like. It has been six years of this and it is only getting worse now that Cena is in a feud with The Rock set to culminate in the main event of next year’s WrestleMania. Every time Cena and The Rock are face to face hardly anybody is cheering for Cena. This isn’t just a nostalgia pop for The Rock like Hogan got at WrestleMania 18 when he fought Rock. This is both genuine love for The Rock and a desire for him to come back full time since he’s still in his prime in terms of wrestling years, as well as the fact people are tired of Cena. This is the WWE’s last big match it could do and as bad as they want Cena to be the face of the new generation, The Rock is one of the two or three biggest stars in the history of the business and the fans are not going to go against him.
This past Monday on Raw the WWE finally acknowledged the boos Cena has been getting by having Roddy Piper confront him about it and tell him to “make right” with the fans. Cena is sporting a new shirt that says “RISE ABOVE HATE” in red, white, and blue of course. This both says he’s a patriot and that the company doesn’t care if you’re going to boo Cena since he’s still the big face. Cena said the boos don’t affect him since he wrestles for the children or something. It is nice that they want Cena to be the hero to the little kids still, but when it comes to the wrestling business the only thing you can do is give the people what they want: John Cena as a heel.
No American flags or weak opponents can change the fact that Cena’s best run was as a heel who walked around cutting raps in 2003. When CM Punk left the company earlier this year with the WWE Championship then returned to feud with Cena when Cena had won a tournament to crown the new champ, Punk got a monster pop for being the returning hero and everybody wanted him over the big star of the company. People aren’t just cheering for The Rock over Cena because they haven’t seen him in a while, they are cheering for him because they hate Cena and want to see him finally do the job to an all-time great. Michaels, Triple H, Angle, and Jericho all had to do the job for Cena and the fans were pissed and they want to see Cena get beat by somebody they like.
Cena’s time at the top of the company is coming to an end as evidenced by the rise of CM Punk and the fall of the TV-PG era. The fans haven’t accepted Cena as the “the guy” for six years and their dislike of him gets stronger every day. The WWE doesn’t have a choice other than to just turn him heel and see where it goes from there. You can’t say fans won’t buy his stuff because when WCW turned Hulk Hogan heel and put him at the head of the NWO merchandise sold big time. Cena has been stale for years and it is time for a change.
Four months after Cena became champion and received the push to become the modern day Hulk Hogan, he started hearing boos from the crowds. Women and little kids may have bought into the hype, but men weren’t having any of it. Cena was booed in his feud with Chris Jericho in the summer of 2005, and it only got more intense from there. From the end of his Jericho feud all the way to January of 2006, Cena was feuding with Kurt Angle. Cena was still supposed to be the hero but Angle was receiving a lot of cheers from the crowd. In January of 06 Cena defended his WWE Championship in an elimination chamber match at New Years Revolution and was booed the entire match. After Cena won, Edge came out to cash in his guaranteed championship match and despite being one of the biggest heels (bad guys) in the company Edge received enormous fanfare after he beat Cena to win the title. In feuds with Triple H and Shawn Michaels they had Cena win the matches but he lost the popularity contests badly.
This has been the case for six years now. Cena has been pushed as the face (good guy) but constantly receives mixed reactions or sometimes even straight up boos. The reason for this is simple: Cena’s corny and has been shoved down the fans’ throats. The gimmick worked for Hulk Hogan in the 80s because people wanted a superhero character and there had never been one like that in wrestling before and it came naturally. The fans made Hogan a star, whereas the WWE has decided Cena is their star. Cena has been force fed to the fans and acts like he’s some kind of American hero but it is just silly. Hogan’s whole “Real American” thing was borne out of the Cold War. Rocky even went to Russia to fight Drago in Rocky IV in the mid 80s. Hogan was able to do what he did because it had never been seen in the wrestling world before and it came across as genuine and was perfrect for the time period. But even then, after a few years people grew weary of Hulkamania. In the 90s things started to change.
People got tired of Hulkamania after a few years because it was the same thing every time. Hogan was going to get beat up then shake his arms and hit a few moves and win. He would cut the same promo about the power of Hulkamania. People didn’t want to see it anymore. The WWF (that’s right, the good ol’ pre-WWE days) went about keeping him a good guy by doing stupid things like playing up the American hero routine. They turned Sgt. Slaughter, an American patriot, into an Iraqi sympathizer and friend of Saddam Hussein and had Hogan beat him to defend the honor of America. It was a ridiculous storyline and a cheap way to keep Hogan face. The WWF even ignored Sid Justice being cheered for throwing Hulk Hogan out in the 1992 Royal Rumble. Hulkamania was right for the time and people loved it, but as the times changed it became lame. With wrestling getting edgier with characters like Stone Cold Steve Austin and D-Generation X in the late 90s, the cartoon superhero character was done.
Aside from little kids and women, nobody buys into Cena because his character is ridiculously corny in this day and age. Older fans remember guys like Stone Cold and The Rock and know Cena is a bad rip off of Hogan. WWE has made the mistake of putting Cena up against guys who are obviously more charismatic and better workers than he is. Sure Hogan wasn’t a very good worker, but in terms of natural charisma he was nearly untouchable. Cena doesn’t have that. What person old enough to understand anything is going to cheer for Cena over somebody like Kurt Angle or Chris Jericho or Michaels or Triple H? Those guys are phenomenal workers (sans Triple H) and great promo guys. Cena’s promos involve corny yelling and they make him come across like Vin Diesel. For years Cena’s promos consisted of gay jokes, yelling, and making stupid jokes like saying people with annoying voices sound like two old cats trying to have sex. Now he’s just thrown out the gay jokes since it is TV-PG.
What is better is the fact that Hogan had a run at the top as the biggest face on the planet for years while Cena’s run hardly lasted a few months before he started to hear it from the crowds. Rather than turn him heel and make things really interesting, the WWE has taken idiotic steps to keep him as a good guy. First they had commentators acknowledge the boos and say he’s “the most controversial superstar” in the history of this business. That’s a nice way of saying, “We hear your boos and although we can’t drown out your boos we know we’ll make a shit ton of money off little kids’ parents buying Cena’s shit so we’re not turning him heel anytime ever.” Second, they put him up against weak competition so he could look like a hero. They gave guys like Umaga, whose gimmick was that he was a Samoan savage and never spoke any kind of language other than nonsensical screaming, and Sheamus, a big Irish dude whose gimmick is that he’s an Irish warrior, feuds for the WWE title just so Cena would have a bad guy to play off of. Sheamus even won the belt. That guy never deserved to hold a belt that people like Mr. Perfect and Roddy Piper never had, but WWE put it on him just to make Cena look like a hero when he got it back.
The lamest tactic the WWE has used in keeping Cena face is the use of American imagery in his gimmick. It is nice that John Cena loves America and the troops but it is a lame and corny tool used to keep him in the fan’s good graces. They have Cena salute all the time and wear camo shorts sometimes to show his respect for the armed forces. Most of his shirts involve a red, white, and blue color scheme. The top light bar on the Titantron (entrance stage in real person speak, Titantron in the WWE) is an American flag during his entrance. This isn’t like the Cold War era that Hogan found himself in where he’s fighting Russians. There is no foreign threat to America that Cena is up against, they are just shamelessly putting American stuff on his merchandise to make him seem like he’s a good young man. It is good he loves his country but that’s a cheap marketing trick to get a cheap pop from the crowd rather than a piece of his character. And while it works for little kids and women, the biggest demographic in the business isn’t buying it.
People say WWE fans “love to hate” Cena. You love to hate somebody when you know deep down they’re awesome but you play along with the business and boo them regardless like with somebody like Mr. Perfect or something. Cena is booed because wrestling fans aren’t idiots and won’t be told who to like. It has been six years of this and it is only getting worse now that Cena is in a feud with The Rock set to culminate in the main event of next year’s WrestleMania. Every time Cena and The Rock are face to face hardly anybody is cheering for Cena. This isn’t just a nostalgia pop for The Rock like Hogan got at WrestleMania 18 when he fought Rock. This is both genuine love for The Rock and a desire for him to come back full time since he’s still in his prime in terms of wrestling years, as well as the fact people are tired of Cena. This is the WWE’s last big match it could do and as bad as they want Cena to be the face of the new generation, The Rock is one of the two or three biggest stars in the history of the business and the fans are not going to go against him.
This past Monday on Raw the WWE finally acknowledged the boos Cena has been getting by having Roddy Piper confront him about it and tell him to “make right” with the fans. Cena is sporting a new shirt that says “RISE ABOVE HATE” in red, white, and blue of course. This both says he’s a patriot and that the company doesn’t care if you’re going to boo Cena since he’s still the big face. Cena said the boos don’t affect him since he wrestles for the children or something. It is nice that they want Cena to be the hero to the little kids still, but when it comes to the wrestling business the only thing you can do is give the people what they want: John Cena as a heel.
No American flags or weak opponents can change the fact that Cena’s best run was as a heel who walked around cutting raps in 2003. When CM Punk left the company earlier this year with the WWE Championship then returned to feud with Cena when Cena had won a tournament to crown the new champ, Punk got a monster pop for being the returning hero and everybody wanted him over the big star of the company. People aren’t just cheering for The Rock over Cena because they haven’t seen him in a while, they are cheering for him because they hate Cena and want to see him finally do the job to an all-time great. Michaels, Triple H, Angle, and Jericho all had to do the job for Cena and the fans were pissed and they want to see Cena get beat by somebody they like.
Cena’s time at the top of the company is coming to an end as evidenced by the rise of CM Punk and the fall of the TV-PG era. The fans haven’t accepted Cena as the “the guy” for six years and their dislike of him gets stronger every day. The WWE doesn’t have a choice other than to just turn him heel and see where it goes from there. You can’t say fans won’t buy his stuff because when WCW turned Hulk Hogan heel and put him at the head of the NWO merchandise sold big time. Cena has been stale for years and it is time for a change.
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