It’s that time again. UFC 140 is this weekend and it features a huge main event, as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones makes his second defense in the past three months and fights for the fourth time this year as he takes on former champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Also in action are the Nogueira twins, as Big Nog faces Frank Mir in a rematch of his first ever knockout defeat in 2008 and Little Nog faces off against the former “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” and current self-proclaimed “People’s Champ” Tito Ortiz. All in all, it should make for an interesting night of fights.
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.
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