Earlier this week, I had been planning to write that the main event of UFC 140 should become Lyoto Machida against Rashad Evans. This was based on the assumption that Jon Jones’ six month medical suspension would hold for at least half that time. Turns out, it is Evans who can’t make the December 10 fight card and now Lyoto Machida will be fighting Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title.
In some ways, this makes the UFC look a little silly. After Jones’ last two fights, Rashad was brought into the Octagon to hype a fight with Jonny Bones. Now for the second straight time, Jones will be fighting a different person. From a promotional standpoint, it makes the UFC look a bit amateur by repeatedly announcing and then changing this fight. Evans has been the clear top contender for over a year now, hence being put in a title match, but the changing of opponents makes title matches seem more entertainment and less merit (ranking system) based.
That being said, it worked out well the prior two times. Replacing Evans with Jones against Shogun Rua helped to usher in a brand new star for the company. Then, after the bickering, setting up Jones vs. Rampage Jackson made for a fight that provided both a credible challenger and increased attention from people due to Jackson’s popularity and name recognition. In this instance, Machida hasn’t fought since crushing Randy Couture in March and hasn’t really been mentioned in the title picture other than “if he wins his next fight or two, he should get a title shot.”
While the UFC has been pushing this Jones and Evans rivalry all year, I believe Machida makes for a better opponent and match. Jones and Evans have similar styles and Jones would be the bigger, stronger, faster opponent. I would expect him to beat Evans decisively. Machida is a much more intriguing challenger. He forces his opponents to fight his way, on his terms. Jones hasn’t faced anyone capable of that. Machida’s style of counter punching and his speed and reflexes could cause some serious problems for Jones. During the Shogun and Rampage fights, Jones left himself exposed for strikes and takedowns. The only problem was that Rua was too injured and Jackson was too slow and one dimensional. Machida has underrated takedowns and can be lightning fast with his strikes. If Jones comes in on him or turns his back during strikes (like he did against Rua AND Jackson), Machida can make him pay.
I think that this is the only fight for Jones that will truly test him. Dan Henderson might have a chance, but I tend to think Jones can rag doll him. Even if he gets healthy and that’s a big if, I don’t know that Shogun can beat Jones’ wrestling skills. While Jones is considered a favorite in the Machida fight and justifiably so, I think its only a slight favorite. I’m biased both against Jones and towards Machida, so it is impossible to objective in this fight. I lean towards Jones 55%-45% in my thinking. I’m sure I’ll get into this more once we get closer to the fight. Regardless, I’m glad this fight is happening and it definitely saves a UFC 140 card that was highlighted by the brothers Nogueira facing Frank Mir and Tito Ortiz. Between this fight and UFC 141’s Lesnar-Overeem tilt, Zuffa has made December a must see month.
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