UFC 137 Predictions

It’s been a busy October for Zuffa, with UFC 137 coming up now. It is the third pay per view and in five weeks and the fifth card in six weeks. I had originally written up a whole batch of predictions and thoughts on the original main event of Georges St. Pierre defending the UFC Welterweight Title against Carlos Condit, but that was cancelled when GSP pulled out with a knee injury on ten days notice. Since the injury is minor enough that this fight can happen in the next few months, Condit was pulled completely from the card. Otherwise, I’m sure he would be fighting Josh Koscheck. The new main event is now BJ Penn against Nick Diaz, a fight I was anticipating more anyways. The co-main is a heavyweight scrap between Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo, which should be...something. Let’s get to it.

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz: I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.

Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.