Thursday, November 3, 2011

UFC 137: Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?

Evidently, the title to UFC 137 should have been “Retirement Party.” After all, two of the biggest names in the sport retired after their defeats in Mirko Cro Cop and BJ Penn. The first was a long time coming, while the second was both surprising and obvious once you get past the surface. For the sake of brevity and lack of specifics in regards to the lower weight classes, I’m going to simply talk about the winners and losers of the three biggest fights on the card: Cro Cop/Nelson, Kongo/Mitrione, and Penn/Diaz.

Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.

Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.

Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.

Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.

BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.

Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.

That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.

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