Last Saturday was the network television debut of the UFC in the cleverly titled “UFC on Fox.” In the main event, Junior Dos Santos won the Heavyweight Title by crushing Cain Velasquez with a hook and some ground and pound in a total of 64 seconds. On the undercard, Benson Henderson became the number one contender to Frankie Edgar’s Lightweight Title by defeating Clay Guida in a wild three round decision that was only seen by UFC fans loyal enough to seek it out on facebook.
That was the first problem with the telecast. I know that Dana White and the people who made the decision to air only one fight did not expect the main event to end so quickly, but Henderson-Guida was a virtual guarantee to be a fight of the year, much less the night, candidate. It turned out to be one of the best fights of the year and featured striking, grappling, and submissions. In short, it was the type of fight that shows the “mixed” aspect of mixed martial arts and would have provided a great introduction to casual/new watchers of the UFC.
The next problem was the use of Dana White as an analyst. I get that Dana is the most visible face and name for the company and loves the sport, but he is a promoter first and invested too much emotionally in the product to provide analysis. His breakdown of the Dos Santos-Velasquez fight was brutal and he ended up burying both men and making them look bad. He absolutely ripped apart Cain’s gameplan and took him to task for not rushing in for takedowns right away and grappling with Dos Santos. The fact is that that doesn’t work as a strategy, just look at when Velasquez chumped Lesnar last year when Brock basically tried that. Also, the fight was only 64 seconds long and Velasquez was using leg kicks to try to set up a takedown. You can’t just takedown someone of Dos Santos’ skillset in the first ten seconds of a fight. His defense is too good and you’ll eat an uppercut for trying to close the distance too poorly. The fact of the matter was that Cain just got caught. Junior threw a great lead jab to the chin and followed it up with a right hook over the top that caught him right around the ear. It wasn’t even something that Cain did wrong; it was just a great offensive boxing combination from Junior. A quick knockout like that doesn’t happen often and I would imagine that if the two were to fight ten more times, that wouldn’t happen again. Dana was upset that the company had invested a lot of time and money pushing Cain into the forefront of the Latino market in hopes of new gains. It was clearly intended to be Velasquez’s coming out party as a star and it ended poorly and in devastating fashion and Dana reacted poorly to it.
Just as bad as that was when he began to discredit Dos Santos. When saying Cain should have went for takedowns, he started ranting about how Junior is known to gas out in the late rounds and that Cain was stupid for not exploiting that. He said this at least twice in a minute and a half. Essentially Dana just said his previous champion was an idiot who lost to an inferior fighter. He completely no sold the fact that Junior is now 8-0 in the UFC and finished the previously undefeated Velasquez. He should have pushed this as “Holy Jesus, just look at how fantastic Junior Dos Santos’ boxing is. He managed to stop a guy that has never lost, much less been finished. He managed to keep Cain from closing the distance for a takedown and absolutely leveled him.” I imagine when he goes back and watches the replay of his analysis, Dana will be disappointed in himself for being too emotionally invested into his promotion of Cain for not adequately promoting Junior’s win, especially coming on the news that ten million of Dos Santos’ native Brazilians saw the fight live. Promotion in Brazil is the next big thing for Zuffa, so what better than a third Brazilian champion?
With that out of the way, let’s get a bit into what happens next for everyone involved in the main and co-main.
Clay Guida: Guida put on an exciting, spirited performance in a losing effort. I don’t know if he’ll get any closer than this to a title shot, but he has nothing to be ashamed of. He lost a close, but clear cut decision because Henderson is just a little better than him at everything and is evidently impervious to takedowns. Guida should get a fight with another top guy, perhaps with Jim Miller or Dennis Siver. Both those guys were close to title shots and a win for one them gets that person one or two fights away from contention. I was going to suggest Gray Maynard, but I think that he would beat Guida pretty decisively and that would push Clay out of the title picture and put Maynard in the “Jon Fitch” zone.
Benson Henderson: Ben Smooth looked outstanding in his takedown defense and ability to get out of submissions. He also displayed a fierce heart and some great offense. He has a date with Frankie Edgar on February 26, when the UFC goes to Japan (!!!). That fight should be absolutely insane and I would expect it to be the best one of the year. Both men have cardio for days and cut a wicked pace. Bendo has takedown defense on par with BJ Penn at his peak, as well as improving stand up that will be tested by Edgar’s solid boxing and wrestling abilities. I cannot wait for this fight.
Cain Velasquez: Not really too much to say about Cain’s performance, as it was such a short fight that one cannot really analyze it too much. I liked the way he was using leg kicks to wear Junior down to set up a takedown later, but (as insightful commentary from ESPN’s Bret Okamoto pointed out) he played Junior’s hands a little. He did this by not moving enough and instead providing a hittable target. A minute of fighting was not enough to get a takedown against someone of Junior’s status, but the leg kicks (I think) would have been effective in the long run if he hadn’t been caught. The thirteen month layoff following rotator cuff surgery couldn’t have helped either, as he came in a little heavier than usual. I imagine he’ll trim down a bit once he gets back into fighting regularly. As for his next opponent, I imagine it will be the loser of Lesnar/Overeem (esp. if its Reem), followed by the winner of Frank Mir/Minotauro Nogueira (esp. if its Mir). I think he beats both of those guys and ends up in a title fight by the end of next year/early 2013. He’s too good to just fall to the wayside and I don’t really see any heavyweight besides Dos Santos (and maybe Overeem if he gets hit and can’t get a takedown) really giving him trouble.
Junior Dos Santos: Junior looked amazing in this fight, especially considering that he tore his meniscus a week and a half before the fight. He threw an excellent left jab-overhand right hook to drop Cain and smartly followed it up immediately to get the finish. His next opponent is the winner of Lesnar/Overeem. If its Lesnar, I imagine it going the same way Junior’s fights with Carwin and Velasquez went. I don’t think Brock can get Junior to the mat easily, especially with such poor striking to set up a takedown. Lesnar also doesn’t respond well to getting hit and the case can be made no one at heavyweight is better at hitting people than Junior Dos Santos. If its Overeem, I think Junior has a tougher time because the Reem is such an excellent kickboxer. But Overeem has been knocked out by Chuck Liddell and Shogun Rua in the past, so someone of Junior’s power can finish him. Either way, it is the fight I would like to see and I think it would be pretty sick.
That’s it for this piece. Stay tuned over the next few days for some articles about Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua, and predictions for UFC 139.
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