This Saturday ends another autumn streak of UFC shows with UFC 139, the fourth weekend in a row of fights. Late September/early October had a similar run and it is alternately awesome and tiring (and expensive). I said this about UFC 137 and it turned out to be incorrect, but this should be an exciting night of fights. It’s headlined by a battle between top 5 light heavyweights and PRIDE veterans Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson in what could establish the next number one contender for the title. The co-main event is an interesting fight between fading star Wanderlei Silva and karate expert Cung Le. The other fights on the main card all look to have the potential to be entertaining as well. Let’s delve into them.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Bonnar is a journeyman fighter still hanging around due to his performance in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. Kingsbury is a younger guy that lost in like the eighth season of that show. This fight doesn’t really have much relevance, but I assume the goal is to get Kingsbury a win over a ‘name’ opponent to establish him at light heavyweight or get Bonnar into a fight after nearly a year off. Kingsbury’s resume doesn’t seem too impressive and Bonnar is usually a pretty tough out who is usually in fairly entertaining scraps. I’m going to say that Bonnar wins by decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: This welterweight bout features two fighter who could conceivably be two to three fights away from title contention. Kampmann is coming off two consecutive controversial decision losses while Story is coming off a loss to Charlie Brenneman that ended a six fight winning streak. This is very much a “striker vs. grappler” match, with Kampmann being the kickboxer and Story being the wrestler. I like Kampmann, but I don’t recall him having particularly strong takedown defense and Story was able to take down Thiago Alves fairly easily. This one could be dull if it is just takedown, takedown, takedown. Story by decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This is likely a title eliminator, with the winner getting another shot at Dominick Cruz’s Bantamweight Title at some point next year. A Faber win would be better for business, but I don’t know that either man can beat Cruz. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bowles fight but I do know his only loss is to Cruz. I didn’t think Faber looked particularly impressive in his fight against Eddie Wineland and was too tentative against Cruz. I will probably cheer for Faber since he’s pretty likeable, but I think it is going to be Bowles by decision.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This fight was originally supposed to be Vitor Belfort taking on Cung Le, but he withdrew due to injury. The UFC fans buying the show may not be familiar with the 39 year old Le, but the live audience in San Jose will love him because of his affiliation with Strikeforce since its days as a regional promotion in the area. Le only has 9 (8-1 record) fights to his record and each one of them has ended by a knockout. This one should be no different. Popular opinion seems to be that Wand’s aggression will be too much for Le, who needs to set up and establish range and distance in order to employ his style of Shan Shou karate. I love Wanderlei and his willingness to throw down, but he doesn’t have a chin against guys with knockout abilities. While seeing Wanderlei revert to his PRIDE days and beast on someone would be incredible and he deserves an exciting win in what has been a poor showing for him in his UFC career, I don’t think it happens. I think Le stays away from Wand’s wild flurries throughout the first and settles in in the second. At that time, it will be Cung Le by 2nd Round KO.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: I am ridiculously excited for this fight. Hendo always seems to bring it when he fights at light heavyweight (much more so than at middleweight) and Shogun never phones it in. This one is going to come down to whether or not Shogun can get him early and if his knees are repaired enough for him to potentially make it through a war of attrition. We know Henderson can go five rounds; Rua’s endurance is questionable due to the poor condition of his knees. If he is limping or dragging his legs, Hendo will just wear him down and win a decision. If he can strike early and pounce, it could be Shogun’s night. I don’t think Rua can win a decision unless he is lights out in the first three rounds. His cardio isn’t as solid as Hendo’s. I tend to think that Rua will put on a gutsy performance and have some moments early on, but Henderson will weather the storm like he does (he is damn nigh impossible to finish) and will use some of his clinch work and wrestling to wear down Rua and either win a decision or finish late. Either way, I expect it to be a pretty good fight. Henderson by 4th round TKO.
There you have it. Feel free to leave your picks here or on facebook.
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