This Saturday, November 12 marks a momentous occasion for MMA - the UFC’s debut on network television with the UFC on Fox. Prior to this event CBS had played host to cards from the now defunct Elite XC and the nearly defunct Strikeforce, but this event will be the first time that the world’s premier MMA promotion airs live fights on network television. Curiously, the powers that be at Zuffa and Fox are only going to air one fight, but its a doozy of one: UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will be facing top contender Junior Dos Santos.
I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.
Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.
Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.
Takedowns and Takedown Defense: Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez
Ground Game: Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez
Tangibles/Intangibles: First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.
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