2011 has been quite an eventful year for MMA. It opened with a Fight of the Year candidate in January between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard and ended on December 30th with the highly anticipated Brock Lesnar-Alistair Overeem clash of the heavyweight titans. Generally speaking, the year saw some incredible performances and there were a bevy of fighters that had banner years. The men who made this list of fighters of the year have all fought at least twice and went undefeated for the year against some solid competition. Without further ado, here is the list counting down from five to one.
5.) Nick Diaz: Nick Diaz had a whirlwind of a 2011. He defended the Strikeforce Welterweight Title twice this year, dominating Evangelista Santos en route to a submission win and knocking out Paul Daley in one of the wildest one round slugfests in ages. To top it all off he ripped into the UFC like a tornado, gaining then losing then regaining a shot at UFC gold. His spectacular boxing display against BJ Penn and post-fight tirade put him back in the main event. All three of Diaz’ fights this year were memorable and he set himself up for the next year or two as a major name in the biggest MMA promotion in the world.
4.) Benson Henderson: Bendo went from losing the WEC Lightweight Title last December to main eventing UFC 144 in Japan against Frankie Edgar this February. Quite a turnaround, especially considering all the doubt cast towards the championship aspirations of the WEC lightweights. Bendo went 3-0 this year against tough competition. He beat the solid Mark Bocek in April,and followed it up by dominating the top contender Jim Miller during the summer. It was Miller’s first loss since March 2009. For an encore, he had a fight of the year candidate against Clay Guida on the UFC on Fox prelims. This fight showed off his diverse set of skills and relentless tenacity. Between his insane cardio, granite chin, and all-around skills, he poses a serious threat to Edgar when they face off.
3.) Anderson Silva: Another year passes for the Spider without a defeat, going 2-0 this year. While the win total isn’t jaw dropping, the fashion in which he won certainly is. At UFC 126, he had the knockout of the year with his front kick to the jaw of Vitor Belfort. It was possibly the only strike Silva even threw in the three minutes of the fight and it came out of nowhere to devastating effect. His second fight was at UFC Rio, where he utterly humiliated the longtime middleweight contender Yushin Okami in about a round and a half. Okami started the fight by getting Silva in the clinch, where Anderson nullified any Okami advantage. The second round saw Silva absolutely abuse Okami, dropping him twice with jabs while keeping his hands at his side. Never before had Okami been dominated like that, but it was par for the course for Silva. To boot, Silva’s wins over fellow Brazilian (and noted celeb) Belfort and Okami turned him into a megastar in his homeland. It’s now been nearly six years since Silva has lost (via illegal kick) and seven since his last real defeat to Ryo Chonan’s flying heel hook. Not too shabby.
2.) Dan Henderson: Any other year, and Hendo is likely the year’s top fighter. He started it off by winning the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Title just months shy of his 41st birthday, knocking out Rafael Calcavante. He followed this up by fighting the greatest heavyweight of all time, Fedor Emelianenko, giving up nearly 30 pounds in the process. The result was a first round knockout, the first such loss in the Russian’s mythical career. He capped off 2011 by returning to the UFC and cementing himself as a top contender for the 205 lb. title with a decision win over Shogun Rua in one of the greatest fights of all time. It was certainly one of the top two or three fights I’ve had the privilege of seeing. With the type of year Hendo had, he certainly eradicated all the doubts about him after his loss to Jake Shields last year in his Strikeforce debut. While I and most people don’t expect him to win against the man who is ranked number 1 in this list, if there’s one thing that Hendo has shown it’s that you can’t count out his heart and that nuclear missile of a right hand.
1.) Jon Jones: I’m not a fan of Jones due to his personality and some questionable tactics during fights, but there is no denying he had the best year of any fighter in MMA in 2011. In fact, it ranks as possibly the best year in MMA history. Off the top of my head, Shogun Rua’s 2005 run is the only major competitor for best year ever. Regardless, Jones went 4-0 this year and won each fight by finish. In February he beat (at the time) fellow prospect Ryan Bader by submission, just absolutely dominating him. Six weeks later he got a title shot against Shogun Rua. While part of Rua’s poor performance was due to his rehab from knee surgery, it’s not an excuse and Jones utterly abused him into a fourth round TKO. In September, he fought Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and picked him apart from range until submitting him in the fourth round. Last week, at UFC 140 he recovered from a first round that saw him get outstruck significantly by Lyoto Machida and turned in a sick standing guillotine in the second round to win. Of all his performances, this was the most impressive due to the composure he showed after getting blasted for the first time in his young career. He became the first fighter to beat three former champions and the fact he finished all of them is even more impressive. Now, he is two to four opponents away from clearing out the entire division. Talk about bringing stability to your weight class.
2011 saw a lot of great performances in MMA. I can’t wait to see what 2012 brings. In the meantime, feel free to leave your thoughts here or on facebook.
Showing posts with label nick diaz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nick diaz. Show all posts
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Thursday, November 3, 2011
UFC 137: Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?
Evidently, the title to UFC 137 should have been “Retirement Party.” After all, two of the biggest names in the sport retired after their defeats in Mirko Cro Cop and BJ Penn. The first was a long time coming, while the second was both surprising and obvious once you get past the surface. For the sake of brevity and lack of specifics in regards to the lower weight classes, I’m going to simply talk about the winners and losers of the three biggest fights on the card: Cro Cop/Nelson, Kongo/Mitrione, and Penn/Diaz.
Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.
Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.
Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.
Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.
BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.
Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.
That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.
Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.
Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.
Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.
Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.
BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.
Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.
That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
UFC 137 Predictions
It’s been a busy October for Zuffa, with UFC 137 coming up now. It is the third pay per view and in five weeks and the fifth card in six weeks. I had originally written up a whole batch of predictions and thoughts on the original main event of Georges St. Pierre defending the UFC Welterweight Title against Carlos Condit, but that was cancelled when GSP pulled out with a knee injury on ten days notice. Since the injury is minor enough that this fight can happen in the next few months, Condit was pulled completely from the card. Otherwise, I’m sure he would be fighting Josh Koscheck. The new main event is now BJ Penn against Nick Diaz, a fight I was anticipating more anyways. The co-main is a heavyweight scrap between Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo, which should be...something. Let’s get to it.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.
BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz: I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.
Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.
BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz: I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.
Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.
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