UFC 136 is coming up, so that means more predictions. If it seems like I just did one of these, you’re right. For some reason, Zuffa decided to put this card two weeks after UFC 135, and one week after a UFC card on Versus. However unlike UFC 135, this has to be considered one of the best cards of the year (even if I don’t like either guy in the main event). It features two title fights: Lightweight Champ Frankie Edgar against Gray Maynard and Feathweight Champ Jose Aldo against Kenny Florian. It also has Chael Sonnen against Brian Stann in a title eliminator and top ten lightweight Melvin Guillard will be in action as well. Let’s just get down to predictions.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon: Guillard is a top ten lightweight that is on the cusp of a title shot, while Joe Lauzon is probably somewhere in the 11-25 range in that class. Guillard is a striker with solid takedown defense, like a 155 lb version of Chuck Liddell but much more athletic. Lauzon is a submission specialist. I like Lauzon and he is a good fighter, but he isn’t good enough to beat the top of the division and Guillard has been on an absolute tear for the past year and a half. His time at Greg Jackson’s camp has really helped shape him into a much better fighter and he has the most knockout power in the division. He’ll use it to devastating effect here. Guillard by second round KO.
Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia: This fight was bumped to the main card after Dave Herman pulled out of his fight with Mike Russow due to injury. This is a rematch of a fight from last December, where Garcia somehow won a split decision in a battle he clearly lost. This has the potential to be an entertaining brawl, one that Phan needs to win in order to stay employed. Garcia will always have a job because he just brawls, for better or worse. He isn’t actually that good and he wings punches with no real force, but he can take a punch and always comes forward. Phan isn’t a particularly good fighter, but he is more technically sound and should end up the winner. Nam Phan by decision.
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann: I should preface this by making it clear that I loathe Sonnen. He is a cheating, obnoxious, lying lowlife scumbag that shouldn’t even be allowed to fight, much less do so in a top contender’s bout. Stann is an American war hero and by all accounts, a good guy. People want to see if Sonnen could beat Silva in a rematch. I am not one of them. He was on the roids and Silva was injured, but Chael still lost. In a rematch, Silva will beat his head in nine ways to Sunday. That being said, this fight comes down to whether or not Stann can stuff Sonnen’s takedowns and nullify his top game. If he keeps it standing, there is a good chance he can either KO or bust open the paper thin skin of Sonnen and get a doctor stoppage. If it does go to the ground, Stann does have one win by triangle choke so he should be able to beat Sonnen there. Stann has also been improving steadily with each fight at middleweight and even if he wasn’t, there is no way I’m picking Sonnen. Stann by second round TKO.
UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian: This is the main reason I’m buying this card. I love Jose Aldo. He is an absolutely vicious striker and has been a one man wrecking crew since he started fighting. Florian is a veteran who was on the Ultimate Fighter Season One as an undersized middleweight, then became a successful lightweight that lost two title shots and a number one contender’s bout before moving to featherweight this year. Florian looked OK in his lone match, but it was obvious the weight cut was not the easiest. At the age of 35, this is likely Florian’s last chance at gold before he hangs it up. He will come into this fight as the larger fighter and is probably the most well rounded fighter Aldo has faced and ever will go against. His range and Muay Thai could make it difficult for Jose, but Florian has never gone up against someone as explosive as Aldo. I expect his speed and power to cause KenFlo some problems and he showed decent ground defense and takedowns against Mark Hominick, so I don’t think Florian can grind away a decision. I expect Aldo to make use of some brutal leg kicks to wear Florian down like he did to Urijah Faber last year to win the belt. Aldo by decision.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: Speaking of decisions, this is a fight between two men that had a draw in their last fight and combined haven’t finished a fight since 2007. I’m just happy this fight is happening so that the lightweight division doesn’t have to be at a standstill anymore like it has been all year. By all accounts, their January fight was a wild, exciting affair. I’m having a hard time getting excited for this fight, as I think Maynard is about as exciting as a Joe Biden speech and Edgar doesn’t particularly interest me. I don’t see Edgar finishing the bigger, stronger Maynard but I also don’t see Gray finishing it either. If he couldn’t after putting the beating of a lifetime on Edgar in the first round of their last fight, how could he now? I just want to see the winner get slapped around by Ben Henderson (provided he gets by Clay Guida). I guess I would prefer Edgar because I think both Bendo and Guida can beat him, whereas only Bendo would beat Maynard. I think I lean towards Edgar on the strength of the fact he beat BJ Penn twice and would have won the Maynard fight if he hadn’t had to overcome such a lopsided first round. Edgar by decision.
That does it for this batch of picks. Feel free to leave yours on the comments section or on facebook.
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