This Saturday’s UFC Light Heavyweight Championship match between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Jon “Bones” Jones has a ton of interesting subplots and storylines heading into the fight and beyond it, really. I touched on a lot of them in my prediction post, but I want to use this space to delve further into them. I’ll try to break them up by topic to make everything easier to follow.
Is Jon Jones the future?
As stated by pretty much everyone, Jon Jones has the combination of skill, athleticism, youth, and charisma to be the future of the sport. At only 23 and in his eighth fight in the UFC, he finds himself gunning for a championship. Jones has so much hype surrounding him right now, that the Wall Street Journal just featured an article on him where he is being touted as the “transcendent star” the UFC has been looking for. On Thursday night, Spike TV is airing a 30-minute special on his meteoric rise from JUCO wrestling champion to top contender. His offense is unorthodox, constantly evolving, and heretofore unstoppable and; his preparations for opponents are intense; his 6’5 frame and 85” reach make him difficult to hit or control physically; and he comes across as clean-cut, intelligent, and articulate. These factors all make him someone who is easy to promote as the image of the sport. So to answer the above question, barring any unforeseen events, yes.
Does Jon Jones buy into his own hype? Will all the hype distract him?
A little bit, for the first part. He has been stating for the past six weeks that in his mind the fight is over and he has been the champion for some time. His confidence in his abilities in comparison to Shogun’s skills has come across as a bit irrational at best, and arrogant at worst. When combined with the media attention and betting lines that have him set as the favorite, it seems like Jones has bought into that hype quite a bit. He has been engaged in a bit of a tiff with fellow Greg Jackson trained fighter Rashad Evans after Jones said he would be willing to defend the title against him. Evans has responded to this poorly, with both parties forgetting that Jones has to beat Shogun first before any Evans/Jones title fight can occur. That being said, I think that Jones may be a bit distracted by being anointed the Chosen One, although a victory on Saturday would dispel me of that opinion pretty easily.
Why is Jones the favorite?
Jones is the favorite by a decent margin, but it isn’t surprising. Shogun has missed nearly a year of action due to knee surgery, his third major knee surgery over the past five years. On top of that, he has struggled against wrestlers and takedown defense is the weakest part of his game. Jones’ top game is smothering and his takedowns are damn nigh unstoppable. He will have a significant size advantage going into this fight, in theory making it difficult for Shogun to close the distance on him in the standup. His cardio should also be better than Shogun’s, as Rua has shown a tendency to gas against strong wrestlers. If anything, this is a much tougher fight for Shogun than the originally slated bout with Rashad Evans.
Is Shogun Rua being overlooked?
Oh, most definitely. If his knees are healthy, Shogun Rua is extremely dangerous. While Jones is being touted as the future, Shogun once had that expectation and right now at age 29 should be in the prime of his career. The last time Shogun was considered an underdog was against Lyoto Machida, and that did not work out well for Machida. People have forgotten that prior to his knee surgeries and 2007 loss to Forrest Griffin, Rua was the top ranked light heavyweight in the world, a position he currently holds. This is an extremely difficult fight for Jon Jones, so any discussion of Jones as the best should be stopped until the smoke clears Saturday night.
How much does Shogun’s experience help?
It helps a great deal. Rua has more than an idea of what it is like to be 23 and hyped. When Shogun was that age, he won the 2005 Pride Grand Prix. During that five month span, he gave Rampage Jackson the beating of a lifetime, beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in what I believe to be the greatest fight of all-time, mauled Alistair Overeem, and destroyed Ricardo Arona. His bouts with Lyoto Machida were the first time anyone ever really even hit Machida, much less knocked him out. Over the same period in his career, Jones has finished Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader. None of these men are slouches, but none are of the quality of fighters Shogun faced. Jones has never really been in a competitive fight before, so this is a big test for him.
If Jones is such a juggernaut, why and how could Rua win?Well, for starters Shogun has faced larger opponents before and won. Alistair Overeem is similar in height and build, and Rua finished him twice. He has beaten strong wrestlers in Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman. He has beaten unorthodox fighters like Machida. The hard part for Shogun is that Jones is all of these things rolled into one. Jones on the other hand, has really only fought wrestlers. He has never faced anyone with muay thai and jiu jitsu abilities before, much less someone of Rua’s caliber in those fields. Shogun holds a decisive advantage in finishing ability standing up and could conceivably knock out Jones, although it will not be easy for him to get inside enough to do so while managing to avoid Jones’ barrage of strikes and takedowns. I think his best and most likely chance to win comes via submission. It is inevitable that Jones will get him to the ground to uncork his ridiculous arsenal of elbows. Where Jones is weak, and what no analyst points out, is his posture. He is content to rain down strikes from open guard, but when he does so and when he postures up, he leaves his upper body and lanky arms dangling out there. Hamill, Vera, Matyushenko, and Bader are not submission experts and could not take advantage of this one glimmer of hope. Shogun is savvy and talented enough to do so, and I believe he will.
If your prediction is wrong, would you be surprised?
No, the only thing that would surprise me would be if it goes to decision. This is very much a “pick ‘em” fight. Jones has the look of someone who could dominate for a long time to come, but this is a lot of pressure and a tough battle for someone so young. Shogun is a legend in the sport, but he is going up against someone who is extremely talented and improving with each fight. Each man is capable of finishing the other one in spectacular fashion. It’s why I’m so excited about this fight and why every MMA fan should be too. Saturday night could usher in a new era with a Jones win, or Shogun Rua could set himself up as a dominant champion in a division lacking one since Chuck Liddell lost the belt five years ago. I can’t wait!
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