Well, its about that time. The first round of the NBA Playoffs begins on Saturday and in my not so humble opinion, it should be one of the most interesting playoffs in recent memory. I think that the field is more wide open than it ever has been, and there is certainly no dearth of teams that could win the NBA title. With that being said, let’s get right into the first round predictions.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1.) San Antonio Spurs vs 8.) Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis purposely tanked the last few games of the season in order to avoid the Lakers and play the top seeded Spurs instead. A curious move to be sure, but it looks like it may have the potential to pay off. Manu Ginobili injured his elbow in the season finale, so he won’t be 100%. The Grizzlies will be without Rudy Gay, who got hurt earlier in the season. The Grizzlies should win their first playoff game in franchise history and will be a very game opponent. Game enough to be competitive, but not game enough to advance. It would serve San Antonio well to win this series as quickly as possible to rest for the winner of the Thunder/Nuggets series, but I think this is going to be a hard fought series. Spurs in 6.
2.) Los Angeles Lakers vs 7.) New Orleans Hornets: This is the biggest gimme of the first round, as the Hornets stand no chance of beating the Lakers four times. If they win more than one, I would be stunned. Without David West, New Orleans is basically a one man show run by Chris Paul. On another note, the Lakers have the easiest road to the Finals out West, as the Hornets are by far the weakest of the teams in the playoffs in the conference. Then, the Lakers avoid the Spurs/Thunder/Nuggets until the Conference Finals and would only play the Dallas/Portland winner in the second round. The Bulls (more on this later) are the only other team with such an advantageous position. Lakers in 5.
3.) Dallas Mavericks vs 6.) Portland TrailBlazers: I said it the other day and I’ll say it again - the Mavericks are done by round 2 at best. Dirk is the only one doing anything offensively, Terry is a midget, and Jason Kidd appears to be decomposing before my very eyes. Portland has the right combination of size and wing scoring to give Dallas fits. Every year, the Mavs are built for regular season success and flop in the playoffs. This year, unless LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Batum spontaneously combust and Brandon Roy doesn’t give them anything at all, will be no different. I’m going with the upset and Blazers in 6.
4.) Oklahoma City Thunder vs 5.) Denver Nuggets: This is going to be the most exciting series of the first round by far. I could imagine either team winning this one. Denver has been on an absolute tear since trading Carmelo Anthony and OKC has one of the best young teams in the NBA and are the team I think most capable of beating the Lakers in a seven game series. Of course, that doesn’t mean anything since they have struggled with the Nuggets all season. I think, however that the combination of Durant and Westbrook on offense with Serge Ibaka’s ungodly defense and Kendrick Perkins being the intimidator will be too much over seven games. Thunder in 7.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1.) Chicago Bulls vs 8.) Indiana Pacers: It brings me intense joy to be writing the Bulls in as a number 1 seed. Chicago gets the Lakers treatment out East, where they have the easiest first round match and then avoid the Heat or Celtics until the Conference Finals. Danny Granger of the Pacers said this was the best match for Indiana. Granger must be nuts, as they lost three of four to the Bulls, while beating the Heat three times. Chicago is considerably better than Indiana and should make quick work of them. Bulls in 5.
2.) Miami Heat vs. 7.) Philadelphia 76ers: Before Lou Williams got hurt, Philly would have been the team that no one in the East wants to play in the first round. The Celtics purposely let themselves fall to three, presumably to avoid a tougher first round match with a 76ers squad that has played them close all season. That being said, Philadelphia has no chance against the Heat. LeBron is the king of the first round and has made a living off of beating inferior teams. I think Philly will play hard, but will ultimately be the victim of a sweep. Heat in 4.
3.) Boston Celtics vs. 6.) New York Knicks: As glad as it makes me to write Chicago in as the 1 seed, it hurts just as much to see the Knicks even in the playoffs. If you’re a Knick fan, this is the worst possible pairing for your team. The Heat or Bulls would have been a much more preferable match for New York, as the Bulls don’t close out well on the perimeter and the Heat are prone to getting involved in a long range shooting. Boston has no problem with bullying and playing tough on them. Amar’e thought the Spurs were dirty in the playoffs? Wait until he gets punched by Garnett. Even without Shaq or Perkins, Boston is tougher than they are. I do think the Knicks will win a couple of games, before it ends up being Celtics in 6.
4.) Orlando Magic vs 5.) Atlanta Hawks: I’m having a hard time picking this one. I don’t like either team and they have both been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Historically, the Magic have owned the Hawks, especially in the playoffs. This year however, the Hawks have won three of four against the Magic and have stymied Dwight Howard by using Jason Collins, of all people. Both teams are more than capable of losing badly in the first round, but could also make a run to the Conference Finals. Dwight Howard is the best pllayer in the series, and the most consistent to boot. Atlanta has the better overall team with Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith but Horford is the only one to play with any consistency. Factoring all that in, I’m going to say Magic in 7, but it could really go either way.
For those of you keeping track, that means I’m predicting the second round to look like this:
WEST
1.) Spurs vs 4.) Thunder
2.) Lakers vs 6.) TrailBlazers
EAST
1.) Bulls vs 4.) Magic
2.) Heat vs 3.) Celtics
Feel free to opine in the comments section or on facebook with your predictions, or why mine are right on, or completely off base, or whatever.
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