Saturday, April 30, 2011

Joe's UFC 129 Predictions

UFC 129 goes down tonight in Ontario in front of a crowd of 55,000. UFC Welterweight Champion and Canadian Georges St. Pierre will be defending his title against Jake Shields, and UFC Hall of Famer Randy “The Natural” Couture will be fighting his final fight against former light heavyweight champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. I will not see the card tonight as I have prior engagements to attend, but I will be freaking out over that Couture fight all evening. Here are my predictions, aside from pain.

Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: I haven’t the slightest clue who Mark Bocek is, but Ben Henderson is a former WEC lightweight champion. He lost his title to Anthony Pettis in a really great fight highlighted by Pettis nailing Henderson with the “Showtime Kick.” I’ll go with Henderson by decision.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Matyushenko’s nickname is The Janitor. I’m a fan. I was not aware the Janitor fought after getting fucked up by Jon Jones until I read my brother’s predictions earlier. Brilz couldn’t even beat the washed up Rogerio Nogueira almost a year ago so I’m not looking forward to his performance. He’ll most likely have some serious ring rust issues, and not being able to beat the weak Lil Nog doesn’t make me hopeful. I sense the Janitor by second round TKO.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Couture is my hero. Here is a guy who is the second best of all time, surpassed only recently by Anderson Silva. Randy will turn 48 soon, so it is good he’s getting out of there since he can’t really take a punch at all anymore. Randy’s game plans have gotten him so many great victories over guys like Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. He knows how to cut off the octagon and trap his opponents and beat them down and bloody them up. But Lyoto Machida is the best fighter Randy has ever faced. The Dragon was undefeated up until a knockout victory to Shogun Rua last year, and then he lost a split decision to Rampage Jackson. Machida really should have won the Rampage fight, but that’s why you can’t leave it to the judges. Machida won’t leave this fight to the judges however. A few years ago Randy could’ve put up a big fight, but I’m not seeing that. Randy can’t take a punch, Machida is too fast and elusive, and Randy just doesn’t have it anymore. Machida wins by first round knockout.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: Aldo is friends with Anderson Silva. I’ve only seen highlights of Aldo’s work and that’s enough to know he’s violent. Hominick doesn’t stand a chance. Aldo by second round TKO.

UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: This is going to be a tough fight for GSP if Shields can go longer than a round or two, which after his fight against Martin Kampann I’m not so sure he can. Shields has great jiu jitsu and wrestling, but GSP hasn’t lost a round in years. I only care about this fight since if GSP wins there’s talk of a superfight with Anderson Silva. Other than that I have no desire to see another GSP fight in which he takes a guy down for five rounds and doesn’t finish them. I do think Shields could potentially pull off an Anderson Silva style submission in the later rounds. However, if and when Shields gasses out, I think GSP gets the TKO in the third round.

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