This Saturday is the UFC’s first show in Japan since December of 2000. It will be taking place in the Saitama Super Arena, the legendary arena which used to host the old PRIDE shows and is even featured in the disgustingly awesome UFC Undisputed 3 video game. I’m not paid to advertise but the game is so nasty I feel I need to give it some props somehow. While most UFC shows run about three hours, this show is going to run about four, meaning for us east coast dwellers it won’t be done until around two in the morning. A great deal of coffee will be consumed to stay alert to enjoy what should be a pretty awesome card, highlighted by a main even that promises to blow doors down. As was once a regular occurrence here before work and school prevented as many updates, there are predictions for what hopefully will be a great show.
Anthony Pettis (14-2) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6): Lauzon is coming off a win over Melvin Guillard which was supposed to be Guillard’s step into the big time but instead he threw a good punch and started celebrating, only for Lauzon to choke him out 47 seconds into the fight. Pettis defeated Ben Henderson and gave us one of the all-time great MMA highlights to become WEC Lightweight Champion before the UFC merger, but he lost to Clay Guida then won a split decision over Jeremy Stephens so a bout between champions with Frankie Edgar never came to fruition. As is the case with most lightweight fights, it should be very exciting. Lauzon has nasty submissions and has only been to decision once in his career, but I think that changes on Saturday. Pettis has good submissions also so I don’t think he’ll get caught in something, and he has a pretty clear stand-up advantage that I think he’ll exploit. I think Pettis by decision.
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14): Hioki is currently ranked as one of the top featherweights in the world but he is in for a challenge with Palaszewski. Hioki does have great submissions but he is coming off a less than stellar split decision victory while Palaszekski is coming off a big time knockout win over Tyson Griffin. Palaszewski has more wins by submission than Hioki (12 to 9) and considerably more by knockout (17 to 4). Even though Hioki will most likely be pumped up fighting in front of his home crowd, I think Palaszewski wins by second round TKO.
Yushin Okami (26-6) vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4): The last time the world saw Yushin Okami, Anderson Silva was demoralizing him in front of a rabid crowd in Rio. Okami has only lost by TKO twice in his career, in that fight with Silva and all the way back in 2003. I don’t think Boetsch knocking him out is worth considering. I think this fight will be pretty straight forward with Okami feeding off the energy from the Japanese crowd and using his wrestling to keep Boetsch down for most of the fight. I think Okami wins a decision.
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1): Sexyama and Shields have both been very unimpressive in the UFC. Shields was undefeated for six years entering the UFC and first won a nonsense decision over Martin Kampmann and then had one of the worst fights ever with Georges St-Pierre, losing a boring decision. Then Jake Ellenberger cleaned him out inside of a minute. Akiyama won a very close split decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100 and has gone on to lose the three fights he’s had since then. Whoever loses most likely is going to have a difficult time staying in the UFC. The fact Shields may have the advantage on the feet says how rough this fight is going to be. Akiyama has also had serious cardio problems every time I’ve seen him so I expect Shields to just outlast him. While Akiyama wins Fight of the Night a lot, he doesn't win a lot. I expect this fight to be boring and Shields will win by decision.
Mark Hunt (7-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6): Hunt is 37 and known for his impressive run in PRIDE, beating Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva. After a good stretch in PRIDE, Hunt went on a six fight losing streak though he has won his last two. Kongo has heavy hands and good kickboxing. Hunt is also a kickboxer and has only been knocked out once in MMA competition with the rest of his losses coming by way of submission. Luckily Hunt won’t have to worry about submissions here but Kongo has never been knocked out and is going to have a pretty big reach and height advantage over Hunt and that is most likely going to seal Hunt’s fate. Kongo wins by first round knockout.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2): Bader was working his way towards the top of the light heavyweight division until he faced Jon Jones and got choked out, then faced Tito Ortiz and got choked out. He knocked out Jason Brilz in just over a minute at 139 and is looking to become a contender again. It has been over three years since Rampage knocked anybody out and nobody is really sure just how serious he is about fighting still. It is safe to assume Rampage is going to be pumped about his return to Japan since he was an animal in PRIDE and constantly talks about how those were the best days of his career and how much he loves Japan. People think Bader’s wrestling will help him, but you can’t take Rampage down very easily and people forget Rampage does have good wrestling. The fight isn’t going to the ground, and after we saw Bader get rocked by Tito Ortiz do you really think an inspired Rampage fighting in the place he’s been begging to fight in for ages won’t put him down? Rampage wins by second round knockout.
UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2): Every time I see either of these two it always winds up being one of the craziest fights. Henderson’s fight with Anthony Pettis for the WEC Lightweight title was brilliant and his last fight with Clay Guida was an epic that left me tired out just from watching it. Edgar of course won back-to-back fights over BJ Penn, not even losing a single round in their second fight. He then went on to have two of the greatest fights of all time in his second and third bouts with Gray Maynard. I’ve seen every Lightweight Championship fight Frankie Edgar has had and I’ve learned one thing from them: Frankie Edgar can never be counted out. Henderson is a complete fighter and an amazing grappler with wicked submissions, but I can’t see him finishing Edgar. Maybe he gets him with a submission in the championship rounds, but I think it is far more likely that fight goes to decision.
I have a hard time believing that Henderson can finish Edgar if BJ Penn didn’t finish Edgar in two fights and Edgar was fine after the mauling he took at the hands of Gray Maynard in the first round of their last two fights. Also Frankie Edgar never finishes fights aside from laying out Maynard a few months ago so I’m feeling pretty good about this being a decision. Edgar has good wrestling but he most likely will try to keep the fight standing since he is faster and for some reason people can’t figure out his boxing game, and you also don’t want Henderson grappling with you since he’ll do work. Edgar is a small lightweight so Ben Smooth will have a size advantage and Henderson, like Edgar, has tremendous cardio and is going to keep coming for all five rounds. I don’t like this type of speculation before the fight even happens, but this could very well be one of the best fights we will ever see. It should be exciting and a non-stop battle for five rounds. in which Edgar wins a close decision.
So that's what it is. It should be a great show and I'm more pumped for this than I have been for any UFC show in a long time.
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