UFC 144 Predictions

Finally, high level MMA makes its return to Japan this weekend with UFC 144. Not since the glorious heyday of PRIDE FC have the Japanese fans had a chance to see the best mixed martial artists the world has to offer. I'm looking forward to this show a great deal, as the Japanese fans have always been awesome and the opportunity to see a show in the Saitama Super Arena, home of the great PRIDE cards from the early 2000s, is exciting. The only way the card could be better is if they had managed to get Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua or a Nogueira brother on it. As is, it has a nice mix of Japanese talent, PRIDE vets like Rampage Jackson and Mark Hunt. To top it off is a great main event for the UFC Lightweight Title between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson that has fight of the year potential. Without further ado, lets get into predictions.

Anthony "Showtime" Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon: This lightweight fight has the potential to determine the next contender for the title. Pettis is the last WEC Lightweight Champ and at this time last year was the next challenger, until he decided to face Clay Guida rather than wait for the Edgar-Maynard saga to play out. He lost, and it set him back a few steps. Lauzon is a midtier lightweight who upset presumptive top contender Melvin Guillard a few months ago and now finds himself in the proverbial mix. I assume a Pettis win sets him up for the winner of the main event, while Lauzon would have to win at least one other fight. This should be exciting, as Pettis has the capacity to captivate with his creativity and Lauzon has never gone to a decision, win or lose. In his last fight, Showtime showed some wrestling skills but I don't think he will use that here, as Lauzon has excellent submissions. If it stays standing, Lauzon will get lit up. I see that happening. Pettis by 1st round TKO.

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart "Bartimus" Palaszewski: Another fight with title implications, as the winner of this fight will likely be the next sacrificial lamb for Jose Aldo. Hioki entered the UFC with a great deal of fanfare as someone considered to be the second best featherweight in the world, but was unimpressive in a split decision win over George Roop. His submission skills are top notch and he is facing Bartimus, who has heavy hands. If Hioki fights smart and doesn't engage in a firefight on the feet, he should be able to get Palaszewski to the ground and submit him, although that hasn't happened often to Bartimus. I would like to see Hioki win impressively for the Japanese fans and because Bartimus is a stupid nickname, but I think it is going to be Palaszewski by 2nd round KO.

Yushin "Thunder" Okami vs. Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch: This is Okami's first fight since Anderson Silva stole his soul at UFC Rio this past summer. For Boetsch this is his third fight at middleweight, where he is 2-0. Okami is easily the toughest opponent Boetsch has ever faced, as his two wins were over Kendall Grove and Nick Ring and Okami has only lost to champions or contenders like Silva, Rich Franklin, Rich Franklin and Jake Shields. Unless Anderson has completely crushed his will to live like he did to Forrest Griffin, Okami should be able to win the only way he knows how. Okami by decision.

Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama vs. Jake Shields: This is a huge fight for both men, as it is Sexyama's first fight at welterweight after a 1-3 record at middleweight and Shields is in desperate need of a win after losing two straight and his lone Octagon win being questionable at best. Excepting the mugging he received by Vitor Belfort, all of Akiyama's fights have been exciting. Excepting the mugging he received from Jake Ellenberger, all of Jake Shields' fights have been brutally dull. I don't actually know how good Akiyama is. I'm certain he has better striking than the Frankensteinesque skills of Shields, but I don't think he can stop Shields from getting it to the ground. Once it gets there, its all over. Akiyama lacks knockout power, so I'm fairly certain that Shields gets this to the ground by the third round and finishes it. Shields by 3rd round submission.

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo: Hunt is coming into this on a two fight win streak that brought his record to a pedestrian 7-7. Prior to this mini-run, he was a PRIDE and K-1 standout that had super strength, but no cardio. He has since dropped 60 pounds and has been respectable lately. Kongo is a mainstay in the heavyweight division, also riding a two fight winning streak highlighted by a thrilling KO of Pat Barry and a not so thrilling decision over Matt Mitrione. I see this fight going one of two ways. The first is that Kongo gets rocked and starts to work takedowns to no avail. If that happens, he gets knocked out or loses a lackluster decision. The second is that he fights like he did against Paul Buentello and uses takedowns for fifteen minutes en route to a safe decision. I think this is very likely what will happen, but I have visions of Pat Barry dropping Kongo twice. Hunt by 1st round KO.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan "Darth" Bader: Rampage is coming off a decisive loss to Jon Jones, while Bader is coming off a shitty 2011 that saw him get subbed by Jon Jones and subbed by Tito Ortiz in the upset of the year. He rebounded by knocking out Jason Brilz, but Brilz kind of sucks. Rampage lobbied hard to be on the Japan card, as he was a PRIDE legend and his most impressive highlights come from his time there. For Bader, a win here gets him back on track as a future main eventer and contender. A loss pretty much establishes him as a gatekeeper. A win for Rampage keeps him relevant a while longer and a loss would put him in the nostalgia fighter realm. In this fight, Rampage has a pretty clear advantage in striking technique and power. Bader has solid takedowns, but Quinton is incredibly tough to take down. In a normal circumstance, I think this fight goes the way Rampage's fight with Matt Hamill went, with Jackson stuffing takedowns and using superior technique to win a dull decision over a lackluster opponent. But with this being Japan and Rampage having to beg to fight on the card and guaranteeing a show (win or lose) for his favorite fans, I foresee him being incredibly motivated. A motivate Rampage means that Bader is in for some trouble. I don't think Bader has the chin to take Rampage's hooks and uppercuts or the footwork and movement to avoid them, nor do I think Darth can starch Jackson. Rampage by 1st round KO.

UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Benson "Ben Smooth/Bendo" Henderson: This fight should be off the chain. Both guys are relentless, tough and have great cardio. Edgar proved he has some serious mettle in his two fights with Gray Maynard, coming back from the brink of annihilation in the first round both times to salvage a draw and earn a TKO stoppage respectively. Bendo has proven his resiliency repeatedly, escaping hairy positions against Clay Guida, Jim Miller and Anthony Pettis. Bendo fights hard every time he is out there, like it is the last time anyone will ever see him again. Edgar has the heart of a lion and manages to prove people wrong each time he goes out there. Edgar has a speed advantage and is a better technical striker, but Bendo will be stronger and unlike Maynard, will not gas. Edgar has great wrestling, but taking Henderson down is a risky proposition because he tends to start unloading massive blows and grabbing a hold of a limb. I think no matter what happens, this will be one of the most exciting fights of all time due to the tenacity and pace of both men. If it stays standing for five rounds, Edgar outpoints Henderson for a decision. If Bendo gets rocked or the fight ends up on the ground, things could get bad for Edgar. I think that Bendo is too strong and with his solid striking and excellent grappling has the best shot of any top level lightweight of beating Edgar. I wouldn't be surprised by an Edgar win, but I don't believe that is how it goes down. I think that eventually there will be some sort of ridiculous scramble and grabs a hold of Edgar for a guillotine. Winner and NEW UFC Lightweight Champion, Benson Henderson by 4th round submission.

I know my brother just read that Bendo is gonna submit Edgar (among other predictions) and blew a gasket. How do you feel this card goes down? Let me know here, or on facebook.