UFC 132 Predictions

Greetings readers!  It's been a long time coming, but I'm updating the blog with an easy post: predictions for this weekend's UFC 132.  It looks to be a great card, headlined by a main event of UFC Bantamweight Champ Dominick Cruz taking on "The California Kid" Urijah Faber and a co-main of Chris Leben vs. PRIDE legend Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva."  Since I'm typing this up while I'm at work, let's just get down to it.

Main Card
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman: This is a lightweight scrap featuring two men who have each won seven of their past eight fights.  I don't know too much about Wiman besides the fact he was on a season of Ultimate Fighter in 2007 and didn't win.  I'm also not sure I've ever seen him fight.  I've seen Siver and he is an impressive kickboxer with a solid ground game.  He's coming off a decision win against top contender George Sotiropoulos and is looking like he could be a potential contender within the next six to twelve months.  I hate going with a fighter just because I know him more, but Siver has the more impressive record and a skillset I'm aware of.  Let's go with Siver by decision.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a welterweight fight featuring two of the top fighters in the division, with both men probably one or two fights away from a title shot.  Condit is coming off two impressive knockouts - a first round KO of Dan Hardy in October and a third round miracle TKO against Rory McDonald last June.  Kim has shown effective wrestling and grappling in winning fights over Amir Sadollah and Nate Diaz.  Condit has been out of action for a long time and is coming off of surgery, so ring rust could be a major factor for him.  I think Kim has the grappling to win this by decision, but Condit is exciting and fights hard.  I'm a fan of his and so I'm going to with Condit by 3rd Round TKO.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader: This fight has a better than forty precent chance of being really boring, as both men are wrestlers with some weak striking.  Bader is coming off his first loss ever after being tooled by Jon Jones and submitted.  Tito hasn't won a fight since beating the piss out of Ken Shamrock in 2006.  Since then he has lost a decision to Lyoto Machida (where he almost pulled off a submission), had a draw with Rashad Evans after having a point deducted for grabbing the cage, a split decision loss to Forrest Griffin that shouldn't have been split, and was dominated by Matt Hamill this past fall en route to a decision loss.  With the exception of the Hamill fight, he has only lost to top flight competition and he hasn't been finished in any of them.  He's been competitive for the most part, but he isn't good enough to win or bad enough to just get crushed like Chuck Liddell over the past few years.  Bader is another tough fight, as he was considered a top light heavyweight with a lot of potential before Jones tooled him.  It will be interesting to see how he recovers from that.  He should be able to beat Tito, as he is a younger version of of Ortiz.  I'll be cheering for Tito just because that dude deserves to win at least once more before he retires, but I'm almost certain this is going to be Bader by decision.

Co-Main Event
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben: This is a fight that has been a year in the making, but Wand had about fifteen surgeries and hasn't fought since February 2010, when he beat Michael Bisping by decision.  Leben took Silva's place in May and beat Yoshihiro Akiyama by third round submission in one of the best fights I've ever seen and then followed that up with a DWI and a first round knockout loss to Brian Stann this past January.  This should be an exciting brawl, since both men do not go to the ground and will stand and trade punches all day.  I think it is a near certainty someone is getting knocked out.  Leben's chin has come into question after Stann finished him in a way that had only been done once prior, and Silva's chin has been called into question consistently over the past few years.  I would like to see Wand go into PRIDE mode and beast on Leben with a knockout, but I think that his chin won't hold up to his opponent's punching power.  I want Wanderlei by 2nd round KO, but think it will be Leben by 2nd round KO.

Main Event
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber: This fight pits the dominant champ in Cruz, who has not lost in four years against Faber, the former featherweight kingpin and the only man to beat Cruz.  Cruz employs a technical striking style that, although lacking in finishing power, has not been deciphered by any opponent yet.  The odds of Cruz finishing Faber are pretty much nil, as no one finishes the California Kid.  Faber is in his third fight at 135 lbs. and his last fight was a disappointing decision win over Eddie Wineland.  What makes this fight especially interesting, other than Cruz attempting to avenge his lone loss, is that these two dudes can't stand each other.  They have been sniping at each other for a couple of years now, so it should be interesting to get to see them face off again.  Faber can't stand and box with Cruz, or he will lose a decision.  He needs to push the pace, bully Cruz against the cage, work some takedowns and try to throw him off his game early.  If he doesn't, he'll lose a decision.  I will be desperately cheering for a Faber win, as he is exciting and seems like a good dude.  I doubt how much Faber has left in the tank though.  He had to drop to bantamweight after it became apparent he could no longer compete for the title at featherweight, and his last fight at 135 was not very impressive.  Cruz, on the other hand, should be entering the prime of his career.  I think it's going to be Cruz by decision.

As always, feel free to leave your predictions on the comments page or my facebook page.