This Saturday is UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill. It was originally UFC 130: Edgar vs. Maynard III for the UFC Lightweight Title, but both men had to pull out with injuries. The co-main event of Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Matt "The Hammer" Hamill has been promoted to main event, while Frank Mir and Roy Nelson are bumped to co-main status. Seeing as how I can't stand Maynard or Edgar and these two fights have the potential to be perversely entertaining, it is quite the upgrade in my book. Actually this card isn't bad, featuring a welterweight scrap between Thiago Alves and Rick Story, as well as a middleweight fight between Brian Stann and Jorge Santiago. Since I'm at work and God knows that I never set aside time to update this thing, let's get right into it.
Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago: Stann is coming off an impressive KO win over Chris Leben back in January and was lobbying for a fight with Wanderlei Silva, but instead gets Jorge Santiago, who is returning to the UFC. In his first stint, Santiago went 1-2 and has gone 11-1 since. This should be a good stand up fight between men who excel in striking. Santiago is more polished and experienced, but Stann should only be getting better at this point in his career. I'm going to with Stann by decision, as he has fought the better competition and should be a fighter on the rise, where Santiago should be somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Thiago Alves vs Rick Story: This welterweight match pits top-five weltwerweight Thiago Alves against the entertaining and tough Rick Story. Alves seems to have overcome some of his issues with weight cutting due to a switch to the Dolce Diet, helping him outlast John Howard by decision in his last fight. If Alves shows up in good shape, this should be his fight to win. He is three fights removed from his decision loss to GSP, so a few wins could move him back up the ladder. For Story, a win could propel him into the top ten in the division. I lean towards Alves by decision since he hasn't really finished anyone in a while and Story is a solid dude who has only lost by decision. On the other hand, Thiago's striking should be much better than Story's, and his takedown defense should be enough to keep him out of trouble.
Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne: This battle features two of the lower tier fighters in the heavyweight division, although to be fair there is only an upper tier and a lower tier. Struve is a decent prospect, but the dude needs to add some weight to his 6'11 frame so he doesn't crumple every time he gets blasted. His fights are usually pretty exciting and at age 23, he has a lot of time to grow and mature as a fighter. Browne, I know nothing about other than that he had a lame fight with Cheick Kongo and he beat James McSweeney, a castmember from the awful Ultimate Fighter Season 10. If I remember correctly from the Kongo scrap, Browne's takedown and ground defense is not great and Struve has a decent ground game. Barring a first round mauling, I like Struve by second round submission.
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson: This fight cracks me up since I, as well as everyone I'm watching this card with, cannot stand either man. Mir is obnoxious and not nearly as good as he likes to think and Nelson is a fat ass novelty act. The intrigue in this fight comes to two things - Nelson beat Mir six years and 60 pounds ago in a jiu jitsu grappling competition and the winner of this fight could be one or two fights away from a title shot, with their next opponent being the winner of Schaub-Nogueira in a title eliminator. I think that Mir is probably better standing than Nelson and they are probably even on the ground, with Nelson having a better top game than Mir does. I've never seen Nelson have to work off his back, but Mir has always been good on his back unless against Lesnar or Carwin. I would expect this fight to stay standing, and if Junior Dos Santos and his skilled striking couldn't KO Nelson, I don't see how Mir will. I do think that Mir is probably just above Nelson in terms of ranking, with Nelson being a solid midlevel heavyweight and Mir being in between the middle and upper level. I think this fight goes to Mir by decision.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Matt Hamill: This fight is hilarious, as Rampage is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and has main evented several cards, while Hamill's biggest fights are his DQ win against Jon Jones due to illegal elbows in a fight where he was getting straight mauled and a decision win over the ghost of Tito Ortiz. Jackson was supposed to fight Thiago Silva on this card, but Silva was taken off after testing positive for PEDs after his last fight and Hamill begged to get a crack at Rampage. In theory, Rampage should knock Hamill's head into the cheap seats, but his conditioning and motivation are always suspect. This rings especially true for this fight, as Hamill is older and slower, his takedowns are nullified by Jackson's takedown defense, and he cannot stand and trade punches with him. Rampage has nothing to gain from this fight and has been openly discussing retiring in two years. That said, he knows that if he has an impressive showing against Hamill, he will probably be fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title this fall against Jon Jones, which should be a big seller and earn him a fat paycheck. While a Hamill decision win wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever since the odds of him working far harder than Rampage are not too shabby, I think Rampage has been annoyed a bit by Hamill's trash talk and knows that he can put down Hamill. Also, undersized light heavyweight Rich Franklin put Hamill down with a liver kick and Rampage hits much, much harder than "Ace." I'm going with Rampage by second round KO.
That concludes the predictions for UFC 130. My brother may put up predictions; he may not. If the Bulls lose to the Heat this week there may be a period of mourning here at Black Belt Basketball, but I digress a bit. If you want to share your thoughts and predictions on the upcoming card, feel free to leave a comment here or on my or Joe's Facebook walls.
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