Hard to believe that it’s time for another UFC ppv, as it seems like the very exciting UFC 134 just happened. On the surface, UFC 135 does not appear to be on that level. It is a top heavy card, with a really strong main event of wunderkind Jon Jones making his first light heavyweight title defense against veteran and fan favorite Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and a co-main event of Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck that could be really dull or potentially interesting. The rest of the card is hit or miss, since it is short on name fighters and has two heavyweight fights on the main card. That could be disastrous, but at least there is a lightweight fight that could be really good.
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt: Both men in this heavyweight tilt are veterans, with Rothwell fighting for the first time since winning a decision over Gilbert Yvel in 2010 and Hunt fighting for the first time since blasting Chris Tuscherer out of the UFC earlier this year. Hunt looked pretty good in that fight, weighing close to 100 lbs less than he did in his PRIDE days, when he was an exciting knockout artist susceptible to submisisons. I’ve never been particularly impressed by Rothwell, dude just looks like a schlub. Coming off a long layoff can’t be good for Rothwell, but he has a lot of wins by submission and Hunt is not exactly a world beater. His win over Tuscherer was his first in nearly five years. I’m going to cheer for Hunt to throw down a KO, but it is going to be Rothwell by second round submission.
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi: This lightweight scrap is my pick for fight of the night. It’s kind of neat, since five years ago Gomi fought Nick Diaz at PRIDE 33 and lost in one of the most exciting battles of all time. Both fighters here have struggled as of late, which I like to blame on the fact that they have both been pitted against wrestlers, which neither of these men are. I expect a fast paced brawl. I’m not sold on Nate Diaz, he is like a less skilled version of Nick. I also don’t know if Gomi is still any good. He was exciting in PRIDE, but has struggled since that organization folded. I do think he has better striking than Nate and if he doesn’t get involved in any grappling exchanges, I think it will be Gomi by decision.
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton: This heavyweight match pits one guy who I’ve seen knock out Stefan Struve and get dominated by Cheick Kongo (Browne) against someone I’ve never heard of. Browne seems to be someone that the UFC thinks has potential, since he has been up against midlevel competition like Struve and Kongo. I’m just going to guess and say Browne by second round TKO.
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck: This was originally supposed to be Hughes vs. Diego Sanchez, but Sanchez pulled out last week with an injury and Koscheck stepped up on two weeks notice to take the fight. I think that Hughes had a better shot of winning when it was Sanchez, even if Kos is stepping up on short notice after recovering from an eye injury. I can’t stand Koscheck; he’s obnoxious and cheats, but I respect that he is willing to take on anyone at any time and that shows a certain respect for fans and the sport that is commendable. Sanchez is a small welterweight, Kos is a large one. Kos also has more power than Sanchez and is arguably as good a wrestler as Hughes. Koscheck should also be closer to his prime than Hughes, who has fought roughly a million fights in his career. What makes this fight interesting is the claim that Koscheck has made for years that Hughes has avoided fighting him like the plague. I think in this battle of two wrestlers, most of it will be on the feet. That’s how these things always end up. In this case, Hughes has woeful standup and while Kos’ is overrated, he is still better at it than Hughes. Kos can also take a punch better than Matt, so let’s say Koscheck by second round knockout.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson: Jon Jones will be looking to be the first fighter since Machida in 2009 to successfully defend the light heavyweight belt while Rampage looks to become only the second two-time champ in the division’s history. For Jackson, this is in all likelihood his last shot at UFC gold. He’s been around a while and with a burgeoning movie career and newer, more dynamic fighters coming up his chances of getting to the top again are slim. For Jones, this is the chance to solidify himself as the best 205er in the world and not just someone who pummeled a crippled Shogun to win the belt. While I would tilt the odds heavily towards Jones in this fight, I wouldn’t count Rampage out. Jones will have a significant reach, size, and speed advantage over the lumbering Jackson. I would say Rampage has better boxing and footwork, as well as arguably more power in his strikes. Jones, while dynamic, doesn’t really set his feet and blast people. Quinton has some of the best boxing in MMA and can crush someone with his hooks or uppercuts. Jones has great trips, throws, and takedowns but Rampage will easily have the best takedown defense of anyone Jones has faced. What favors Jones is that Rampage is too one dimensional. He doesn’t go for takedowns or the slams that were a trademark of his PRIDE days. He is content to stuff takedowns and box. He is going to have to be more active if he wants to win and fight in a fashion similar to his fight with Machida last year. I think that something else working in his favor is that Jones is the most arrogant fighter not named Anderson Silva and unlike Jones, Silva has earned that right to be arrogant. There is a chance he is overlooking Rampage or gets too cocky and gets sloppy. The best way for Jones to win would be to take either the Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans route by keeping distance and utilizing leg kicks or by grinding away in the clinch as opposed to getting into any firefights with Jackson. I’ll be cheering for Rampage, but I think that realistically he has about a 25% chance of winning this fight. I think that Machida is the best stylistically to beat Jones and will be the first one to do it, but that won’t stop me from rooting for Jackson. I do think that Jones grinds out a decision or possibly 4th round TKO.
As always, feel free to share your predictions in the comment section or on my facebook page.
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