Ultimate Fight Night: Where Do We Go From Here?

March 26th was the 24th installment of the Fight Night saga.  I didn't get to actually watch the event due to a lack of Spike TV and Roku not showing Fight Night cards on its UFC channel, but I read the results and detailed recap of the show.  Another Pride vet, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, was defeated by a young up and comer asPhil Davis won a unanimous decision victory.  In the co-main, Dan Hardy was again dominated by a strong wrestler.  This time it was Anthony "Rumble" Johnson muscling the Brit down for the full fight.  With the card in the books, now is as good a time as any to play fantasy booker and see what's next.

Leonard Garcia: The WEC's favorite punching bag/brawler was on the receiving end of a vicious submission loss to Chan Sung Jung.  Garcia is not particularly skilled, as all he does is throw haymakers for fifteen minutes, but his fights are typically exciting to see.  I would expect him to have the rematch against Nam Phan that was originally scheduled for this card.

Chan Sung Jung: The Korean Zombie avenged his controversial split decision loss to Garcia with the aforementioned submission victory.  A fight against former WEC Featherweight Champ Mike Brown would make sense, especially since Brown has been on quite the skid over the past year or so and a matchup with Jung could be an exciting one.

Amir Sadollah:  The former Ultimate Fighter winner had perhaps the best fight of his career, stopping DeMarques Johnson by strikes from the mount in the second round.  It was his first decisive finish since the reality show and could mark a turning point in his career for him.  His last shot against a top 20 fighter ended in a decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim.  Maybe a matchup with a fringe top-20 guy like Jake Ellenberger would be a good marker of where Sadollah stands in the welterweight division.

Dan Hardy: Several months of training how to defend a takedown.  Seriously, Hardy's wrestling is woeful.  He was taken down at will by Rumble Johnson and was ineffective the entire fight.  He's a tough dude and his striking is good, but that might not be enough to keep him hanging around the UFC much longer.  His lack of ground game caused him to lose to GSP and Johnson decisively, with a brutal knockout loss to Carlos Condit in between.  He's called out Chris Lytle, in what would be an exciting fight to see since Lytle never uses his ground skills.  That's probably the way to go with Hardy.  If he faces anyone else with even a modicum of a ground game, he's toast in the UFC.  The only other fight that would make sense would be if he was transferred to the Strikeforce roster and battled fellow Brit Paul Daley.

Anthony "Rumble" Johnson: Rumble battled ring rust and beginning his training camp at 231 pounds and managed to manhandle Dan Hardy.  If he can keep in shape and improves some more, he could make some noise in the welterweight division.  He used his wrestling to great success in the Hardy fight and he was already known for having a pretty good stand up game.  I would match up him up with either Diego Sanchez or Thiago Alves in order to see if he can hang with the top of the division.  If he continues to hone his offense and can learn to improve his takedown and submission defense from his loss to Josh Koscheck, and beats one or both of those two men, he could prove to be a stiff challenge to GSP in the future  His size and offensive abilities would be quite a bit to handle if he can put it all together.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Despite what my brother may think, Little Nog still has a lot to offer the UFC.  It just so happens that his last two or three fights have pitted him against strong wrestlers with no standing game and wrestlers are his biggest weakness.  A rematch with Shogun Rua of the greatest fight I've ever seen would be pretty cool, if just at least for nostalgia's sake and so a Pride veteran can win again.  If not Shogun, then maybe Rich Franklin or another old-timer that is not in title contention.

Phil Davis: Mr.Wonderful earned the biggest win of his young career by beating Little Nog, but it was evident that he still has a lot to work on in order to become a contender at light heavyweight.  I would put him up against Lyoto Machida, pending Machida beating Randy Couture in a few weeks.  That might be too big a step in talent for Davis and if it is, I would suggest Forrest Griffin.

On the MMA front, be prepared for a look at the fighters from Strikeforce I would like to see in the UFC, a possible review of the UFC "Best of 2010" DVD, and a look at the upcoming UFC pay per view.

It is almost time for Playoffs baby!

With the NBA regular season in its final games, anybody with a soul is gearing up for what is sure to be one of the most awesome post-seasons in history. After all, the NBA has advertised this 2010-11 season as the best one yet, so it would only make sense the Playoffs would bring a greater deal of excitement than the other post-seasons in recent years. With so many powerhouse teams set to do battle, I for one am nearly shitting myself with excitement. I don’t have a clear focus with what I want to talk about here, I’m just going to list off some teams in each conference I feel will make for a good playoff story. Here we go.

The Eastern Conference – Normally we’d look at this as the Leastern Conference because the winner would likely fall prey to a more powerful force from the West, or Bestern Conference. That’s how has been the last two years, and for nine of the last twelve Finals. It doesn’t look that way now. The way the East is shaping up, it appears that the battle is going to come down to two. Much like the Ultimate Warrior and Hulk Hogan before them, the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics are clearly the top two. The battle will come down to them and them only. Let me elaborate.

• Chicago Bulls - Currently the top seed in the East, but there's still plenty of time left for that to change. The Bulls have stunned everybody, even some loyal fans, with how amazing they've been this year. Derrick Rose is likely going to win the MVP award, Tom Thibodeau is a top candidate for Coach of the Year, and the Bulls seem more and more likely to be the team representing the East in the NBA Finals. They have the best record against elite teams, they have become a monster defensive force, and the scariest piece of the puzzle is not that they have Derrick Rose but rather some legendary team chemistry and really believe they can win it all. They've had the second easiest schedule in the last stretch of the season, but at the start of the season it would've seemed likely a stretch like this would give the Bulls problems. They had a habit of playing down to a weaker team's level and losing. Now they're coming into every game with such force they're striking fear into other teams. There was the monster 40 point victory of the Kings followed by a 30 point domination of the Hawks the next night. Then the other night with the Bulls down 87-83 against the Bucks with three minutes left, Derrick Rose had two assists, two free throws, and three baskets to lead the Bulls to victory. This team is looking like a monster and poses a serious threat to teams like the Celtics or Lakers.


• Boston Celtics - While they may be in danger of dropping down to the 3 seed due to a recent slump, there's no reason for concern. This is the same team that looked like they were knocking on the door of a first round elimination to Dwyane Wade's Heat last year and they wound up playing in the Finals and nearly winning. Why? Defense. They lock people down. It doesn't matter where the game is or who it is against, the Celtics will beat you down and drain you in a series. This is of course if they are healthy. Aside from a finger injury to Rajon Rondo they appear to be much healthier than last year. They'll need Shaquille O'Neal or Jermaine O'Neal to actually play some games, but as long as they have healthy players then no team in the conference poses any kind of a threat except Chicago. They made some big changes at the trade deadline, but they are still the Boston Celtics. Pierce and Garnett are healthy, and that spells certain doom for almost every team. With Garnett anchoring the defense, Rondo being on the floor, Allen's shot falling, and Pierce healthy and able to come through in the clutch, the C's have a great chance of winning their second title in four years.


• Miami Heat - People can say all this crap about how nobody wants to play the Heat in a seven game series and talk about how they've done so well in the home stretch of the season, but don't buy into it. The Heat have the easiest schedule in the last part of the season and are doing what they've done all year, beast on bad teams. I'm not impressed with the Heat still dominating the lower level teams. They've done it time and time again. I want to know if they're going to have any answer for getting clowned by the defenses of Boston and Chicago. We've been through it a million times. The Heat have been a step behind the major teams all year and come Playoffs I'm not so sure that's going to change. I may be wrong, but I doubt it.


• Orlando Magic - Man will that city be heartbroken when Dwight Howard leaves soon because of suffering post-season elimination after post-season elimination.


• New York Knicks - They might not even make the Playoffs if these losing ways continue. Hah!

The Western Conference - Man is this conference going to be nuts. Seeds 1-5 are going to make for some interesting basketball, dear readers.

• San Antonio Spurs - Early on it looked as though the Spurs could become the second team in history to win 70 games. Before the All Star break they were the best team in the NBA and looked like the biggest threat in the West to stop the Lakers from making their fourth straight Finals appearance. After the All Star break it hasn't looked so amazing for the Spurs. They've lost three straight, injuries have taken Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, and losses to the Lakers and Heat have people wondering if the Spurs are as good as we all thought they were. I hope they are, but you never know. If Tim Duncan isn't healthy and ready to go come Playoffs, then the Spurs are dead meat. Same goes for if Manu Ginobili's thigh contusion leaves him out for any serious length of time. Even healthy the Spurs have to prove they can take out the Lakers. They match up well with the Mavericks, but LA still takes it to them.


• Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers have won 15 of 16 after the All Star break and look like they're going to run train come Playoffs and possibly win their third straight title. This isn't a surprise since this is a team coached by Phil Jackson and Phil can only win championships in threes. Kobe is starting to play much better than he did early on, Pau Gasol is still having another amazing year, and Andrew Bynum is seemingly playing better than he ever has. That's cause for concern for everybody in the West. The Lakers have been there, done that, and they look like they might just do it all again. People were counting them out early on, but they way they've been playing lately has shut up all of the doubters. Much like Phil Jackson's Bulls teams of the mid to late 90s, the Lakers let the league get their licks in early and now are running the gauntlet over everybody in the final stretch. If I didn't hate Kobe Bryant I'd be really excited that the Lakers are putting together such an epic stretch.


• Dallas Mavericks - While the Lakers and Spurs are the biggest stories in the West, the Mavericks have a great chance of making it to the Finals. They aren't quite overlooked, but they aren't really focused on enough. This is a team that seems much hungrier and much more talented than the team that made the Finals in 2006. Dirk is having another fantastic year, Shawn Marion is playing like it is 2006, Jason Terry is having a great year, Tyson Chandler is a monster force on the defensive end, and Jason Kidd continues to stun in the later stages of his career. The Mavericks have so much depth and have rebounded from losing Caron Butler in a big time way. They've got great rebounders and shooters and as I said before they have a way greater desire to win a championship than they ever have. Chandler's defense and rebounding will give that frontcourt of the Lakers a headache. The speed of Terry and JJ Barea give them an advantage over a lot of teams as well, and nobody in the conference has a point guard who can do as much as Jason Kidd. The Mavericks constantly collapse in the Playoffs so there's a lot of question marks around them, but if they can get it all together then they are a serious threat to win the West.


• Oklahoma City Thunder - Before the season started we had to hear about what a great young team this is. After picking up Kendrick Perkins they look like a huge spoiler team. Perk's defense and size will help them out so much as will the defense of Serge Ibaka, and having Thabo Sefolosha's defense on the wing is always dangerous. As we've heard all season, Westbrook and Durant are fantastic players and MVP candidates. The hype has been off the charts all year, and it will still be high come playoffs. They could make a pretty good run this year and are built to do some damage in the future too.


• Denver Nuggets - Trading Carmelo Anthony was the best thing they've done. They're in the 5th seed and look to stay there and have been playing the best basketball we've seen out of Denver in ages. They're not going to make a run for the title or anything, but they could be a big time spoiler team and make a push. The Nuggets are the team I'm most excited for in the West come Playoffs because while they aren't an elite team and don't have a superstar, they're playing so well they could cause a lot of problems for a lot of teams.

That's all I got. Man I hope the Knicks don't make the Playoffs.

Hate to say I told you so...

It's funny.  When the Knicks traded for Carmelo Anthony, ESPN (on tv, not internet to be fair) started to tout New York as a team that could make a lengthy playoff run.  Once the Knicks won a bunch of games immediately following the trade, you would have thought it was 1994 and Ewing and Starks were back.  Now, reality has set in and the Knicks have a losing record post-trade, and are below .500 for the first time since early in the season.

Carmelo is going to get a lot of the blame, but it isn't because he is playing poorly.  It is really the fault of the Knicks for going with the trend of signing "stars" without thought to how well multpile stars with similar games will fit together, or that there needs to be a clear pecking order in a team's structure and role players ready and able to chip in a timely basket or stop.

The other factor in this is that Mike D'Antoni's offense is based on needing certain players to perform certain tasks and play in specific spots on the floor.  Due to the trade, the Knicks can no longer play the "Seven Seconds or Less" (SSOL) offense that D'Antoni has championed.

In Phoenix and pre-trade New York, the offense was based on each player fitting a certain role.  There is the power forward/center that operates from about 15-20 feet out to all the way around the basket.  On both teams, that was Amar'e Stoudemire's role.  Then the other two front court spots are usually at least one person who stands out on the wings to shoot open threes and the other either does clean up rebounding or also hovers on the three-point line.  In Phoenix these roles have been done over the years by Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Quentin Richardson, and Boris Diaw.  The Knicks haven't been able to fill both of these slots well, but one of them would be filled by Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  Then the shooting guard position is someone who can shoot open threes.  Phoenix has used Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, and now Vince Carter.  The Knicks use Landry Fields.  The final piece is the point guard that can hit from anywhere on the floor and dishes to everyone else on the floor.  For the Suns, that's been Steve Nash and for the Knicks it has been Ray Felton and Chauncey Billups.

The SSOL offense requires constant and fast ball movement and sound decision making, which is where the Knicks fall flat.  Carmelo holds the ball for awhile before making a decision.  Plus, he isn't really a perimeter player and fills the same space on the floor as Stoudemire.  This means that one of the two is always going to be out of the action.  Without Gallinari and Chandler, this closes the floor alot and makes it easier to stop STAT and Melo by just crowding the lane.

This is the main reason why the Knicks aren't scoring as much.  Melo slows down the pace of their offense considerably, plus their they are hitting fewer threes per game.  Their defense is still terrible, but it doesn't seem like they allow as many points because the pace of the game has slowed down considerably.  Billups is a good point guard, but he isn't the right one for the D'Antoni's system.  In Phoenix, Nash was the primary ballhandler and distributor.  In New York, the ball is staying in Carmelo or Stoudemire's hands for the bulk of each possession.

D'Antoni is taking a lot of heat for how the Knicks are playing, with pundits saying his system doesn't work.  The problem is that the personnel he was given doesn't match what he needs.  New York, like seemingly every team, is in love with the concept of having multiple superstars of equal or near equal stature and abilities.  This doesn't work unless someone is willing to become a secondary player for the team.  Miami is currently experiencing that because Wade and LeBron currently occupy the same spaces and like the ball in the same places at the same times.  Boston has had success because Pierce has been delineated as the primary scorer, Allen is willing to float off screens, and Garnett has harnessed his energy into the defensive end of the floor.  Chicago has a clear top dog with Rose, while Deng and Boozer are the supporting scorers.  The Lakers have Kobe as the alpha male, with Pau, Odom, and Bynum as the support.

New York doesn't even have the cast of Miami.  Chris Bosh fills the third fiddle role that New York doesn't have, plus LeBron and Wade (while similar players) are both considerably better and more complete than Stoudemire and Anthony.  And Knicks fans shouldn't get their hopes up for Chris Paul or Deron Williams either.  Paul will help more than Williams since D-Will scores more, but the issues of depth would still persist.  Although to be fair, depth issues and lack of steam at the end of season would be a D'Antoni trademark.

Derrick Rose is My Basketball Jesus

“I’m gonna have to apologize to the people; I don’t think I can really be objective.”

That was said by Bobby “The Brain” Heenan while doing commentary in the 1992 Royal Rumble and cheering for the wrestler he was managing, “The Nature Boy” Ric Flair. It is also the first thing I thought of when I realized every piece about the NBA I want to write is just about how Derrick Rose is the best player in the Association this year. Rose is my favorite player so I will always go nuts over everything he does, though I do feel I did a pretty good job of staying unbiased in the first post I had here on Black Belt Basketball. Rose’s major statistical improvements and the unexpected rise of the Chicago Bulls speak volumes for Rose’s MVP candidacy. As a student of the game I’m able to see that.

But as a Chicago Bulls fan, this has been the greatest season for the league in 13 years. I can’t help but start buying into the hype. The Bulls currently hold the top spot in the Eastern Conference and according to ESPN they have the best chance of winning the championship this year and being a dynasty in the future. I don’t want to jinx them so I won’t say they’re going to win it all, but as a fan this pumps me up to see other people saying it. And all of this is because of Derrick Rose.

When Rose came into the league people said he wasn’t clutch and couldn’t play defense. This year he’s shattered those misconceptions. Ask Chris Paul and Deron Williams if Rose can play defense. Following a loss to the Blazers, Portland’s Nicolas Batum said Rose can’t guard anybody. Chicago’s next game was against the Jazz, and Rose forced Williams into 38% shooting and 5 turnovers. It wasn’t done there. The next game was against the Hornets and Chris Paul was held to 3-10 shooting and only 6 assists. The top two point guards in the league decimated in back to back games. The on St. Patrick’s Day the Bulls played the Nets who now have Deron Williams. Williams is apparently nursing an injured wrist, but Rose still held him to 1-12 shooting and had a beast block on him in the fourth quarter. Then against Indiana last week the Pacers had a chance to win in the closing moments of the fourth but Rose blocked the shot. I don’t think Rose can guard people.

As for him being clutch, that isn’t even a debate anymore. Rose unloaded 19 fourth quarter points to send that game with Indiana to overtime. In the first game against Houston this year, Rose scored 17 points in the fourth to carry Chicago to victory. In the second meeting with Houston this year Rose hit that three to send the game to overtime then scored five of Chicago’s ten points in the OT period. Against the Phoenix Suns, D. Rose hit clutch shot after clutch shot and even scored more points than the entire Suns team in the second overtime. Rose also made big plays against the Lakers, and has been making big plays all year. Some people would say Rose is a killer now, but I like the way Brian Scalabrine put it:

"[Killers] are the guys who get you the need baskets. I have a different word for killers. I call them motherfuckers. And right now, Derrick Rose is the baddest motherfucker in the league by far. He is the reason we win."

Yes he is. He’s playing like an animal and I am so happy because of it. When the Bulls drafted him I was so happy. I don’t pay attention to college basketball so I had no real knowledge of what Rose had done previous, but to get the local boy with the first pick in the draft and excite the entire fan base was a big thing. I’ve followed every game of his career. I’ve seen every big game he’s had, from the 36 point explosion against the Celtics in Game 1 of the 2009 Playoff series all the way up to his 42 point onslaught against the league-best San Antonio Spurs this season. I was walking around the room with my arms in the air in triumph during the Bulls’ demolition of the Hawks last night in which Rose had 30 and 10 and hit six 3 pointers.

Every time Derrick Rose steps on the court I turn into a 10 year old. Every time he goes to the hoop and hits one of his unreal acrobatic layups I stand up pumping my fist. When he hits a three right over a defender I walk around the room with my fist in the air. When he dunks on somebody I get crazy eyes and just start yelling “Yeah!” When he hits a big shot in the fourth I get up and run around the room with my hand over my face screaming. I’m not embarrassed. It just goes to show that Derrick Rose is so good he can make a grown ass man act like a bitch.

This of course would probably lead you to ask why in the blue hell I get like this over Derrick Rose. Rose embodies everything I’d want to see in a player in my favorite sport. The best thing about him is the fact he’s so humble. He could easily brag about the damage he’s doing to teams this year, but instead he gets very shy if you tell him he’s been the best in the league this far. After beating Miami for the third time, Rose was interviewed after the game and rather than celebrate having a good game and winning he freaked out about how he nearly cost his team the game with two turnovers and missing a jumper. He felt terrible that he nearly ruined the game for his teammates. When the reporter interviewing him tried to get him to talk a little trash about Miami’s big three and say something about the great season he’s been having, Rose just shook his head and smiled and said it was all about the team’s success and it doesn’t matter what he does on his own.

That’s pretty big for a superstar to do. When Boston beat the Lakers in the 2008 Finals, I remember Kobe saying the loss hurts because it had been such a big year for him. LeBron James constantly talks about himself like he’s a global icon. Derrick Rose has been playing better than both of them all season but doesn’t want to hear about how good he’s been, he just wants you to talk about what a great team the Bulls have been. Saying he wanted to be MVP before the season started was the only time Rose has ever gotten cocky. Other than that he’s always respectful and reserved. I love it.

The other thing that makes Rose so great is that killer instinct he has. Over the summer he contacted both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James about coming to Chicago. He contacted Wade a few times, but Wade blew him off. Then when the big three decided to form in Miami, Rose hit the gym and went nuts. He developed a three point shot, his free throw shooting has gone way up, his defense is way better, and he’s approached the season with a determination nobody knew he had. All the effort he’s put into this year started because of the free agency period in which the Bulls management wanted him to court James and Wade. Rose knew he could lead the Bulls on his own and when LBJ and Wade went to South Beach he set out to prove to everybody he can. That’s the type of drive that brings to memory a certain guard who also played for the Bulls.

Rose also preaches Tom Thibodeau’s message constantly and has helped Thibs transform the culture of the Bulls this year. He doesn’t call Thibs out and make it seem like his coach is the issue if the Bulls lose a game. He doesn’t slam into Thibs on the sideline if he’s mad about his decisions like some stars. He trusts what Thibodeau brings to the table and he believes in him. That faith and loyalty to a coach is something you’d expect out of a truly dedicated star, but because of the bond Rose and his coach have developed it has the Bulls playing at a level nobody except the most serious of Bulls fans would have believed.

Derrick Rose is such a special player. When he proclaimed he could win the MVP award deep down I wished it would happen, but on my other blog I still said Kevin Durant would be the one who wins it because I hadn’t seen exactly how much Rose had improved in just a few months. On my other blog I had said the Bulls would be the 4 seed in the East, but in conversations before the season started with my brother and my friend Josh, both Bulls fans, I said I believed they had the parts to contend right away because Rose was going to be that good. It was just the extremely biased Bulls fan in me saying what I really wanted to happen this year. But now it is happening. I’m stunned.

I texted Josh earlier saying Derrick Rose is the second coming of either Jesus or Michael Jordan. Josh responded that Rose has taken the best parts of both of them and combined them into one superhuman. He may be right. After the Bulls beat the Hornets in that game I mentioned earlier, Carlos Boozer said of Rose, “He’s a monster, man. And I keep telling people, when it’s all said and done—he’s 22—he’s going to be the best one.” I don’t know about him being better than MJ, but we’re witnessing a special player this year. He’s so humble and so driven and has his team playing at an unbelievable level. I’m so happy I’ve been supporting him from the moment the Bulls drafted him.

I’ve never cheered for an athlete the way I’ve been cheering for D. Rose (I don’t know if I could give almost three pages to Steve Nash), and I’ve never pulled for a team the way I’m pulling for the Bulls. I’m so pumped for the next 12 games and the Playoffs, as well as the many years of success the Bulls likely have in store. Knock on wood.

UFC 128: Thoughts, Observations, and Where Do We Go From Here?

UFC 128 is in the books and now there's a new Light Heavyweight Champion, and his name is Jon Jones.  My prediction of a Shogun submission was misguided, although I did say a 2nd or 3rd round Jones win by TKO was very possible.  It turned out to be a 3rd round TKO for Jonny Bones, in a fight that could only be characterized as lopsided.

Jones annihilated Shogun in a way that no one ever has.  From the onset until the end, Jones was all over him.  Shogun's face was a swollen, bloody mess and his body was littered with welts from an onslaught of body shots and knees.  According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Shogun 102 to 11.  Jones effectively used his range and takedowns and went through the fight unscathed while landing everything he wanted to at will.  If he continues to improve at the rate he has from fight to fight, he could end up being the most terrifying specimen in MMA history.

Other Thoughts:

• What was the deal with the fans chanting "USA" during the main event?  They didn't chant it during the Cro Cop-Schaub fight or the Miller-Shalorus one, and that featured a Jersey native against an Iranian.  To chant that during the main event was disrespectful to Shogun, a true legend in the sport, and moronic.  This isn't the World Cup.  It isn't about country vs. country.  It's just a fight.
• I thought the Greg Jackson fighters on the card tonight, except Nate Marquardt, fought dirty.  Brendan Schaub was deducted a point for punches to the back of the head, something he did throughout the fight.  Jones got away with a lot of illegal choking via forearm and the rape choke during his fight.  He also headbutted Shogun in the midsection, which I'm pretty sure is illegal as well.  Herb Dean was the referee in both matches, and he is usually on the money, but I thought he really dropped the ball with that.  Especially in the Jones fight, as Jones was dominating even without having to resort to choking.  Speaking of Jones, his push kicks to Shogun's surgically repaired knee, while legal, were a bit cheap.  He already had a speed, strength, and size advanage and didn't need to resort to that.  I don't like it when Anderson Silva does that either.  It can cripple an opponent and to do it to someone coming off of knee surgery is double uncool.
• I mentioned Brendan Schaub a few sentences ago, and I must say that he was lucky.  He did nothing for two and a half rounds except for rabbit punches, wall and stall, and lay and pray.  He was gassed and Mirko seemed to have risen from the grave in the third round and was really taking it to him.  It looked like Cro Cop was going to salvage a draw or even a victory, before a lucky shot crumpled him.  Upon multiple viewings, I thought that the punch was to the back of the head.  When Joe Rogan said that Schaub was scary because he has wins over two legends, Gabe Gonzaga and Cro Cop, I had to laugh.  Gonzaga is no legend, and he struggled mightily against a Cro Cop that hasn't been considered truly dangerous since Gonzaga of all people knocked him out in 2007.
• The brothers Miller crying in the locker room was a touching scene.  Evidently, it would have been the second birthday of Dan Miller's deceased son.  Combined with Dan's tough (but clear cut) decision loss and Jim's knockout victory, the emotions were running wild in their locker room.  Words can't really do it justice.
• With the knockouts of both Cro Cop and Shogun, Pride was pretty much buried for good.  Cro Cop has been finished for awhile, but Shogun has never been handled in that fashion.  It seems like there are only two guys who achieved a great deal of success in Pride that are relevant still: Quinton Jackson and Dan Henderson.  Over the next few weeks, I'm going to try to write a series of articles on Pride and its legacy in MMA, including the death of the Pride superstars.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Jon Jones: A battle against former training partner Rashad Evans has been confirmed, one in which I would expect the undersized Evans to be manhandled by Jones.  Evans usually succeeds due to better wrestling and a speed advantage, neither of which he will have in this fight.  I think Lyoto Machida, if he can get himself back into title contention, would be the biggest challenge to Jones.  Jones exposed his back and legs a few times to Shogun, who was too beat up to really capitalize.  Machida is a much better grappler than Rua and more willing to let Jones come to him, rather than try and fail to get in on Jones' monster reach advantage.  People are clamoring for Anderson Silva to move up and face Jones, which would be an exciting fight and, as a fan of Silva's, a terrifying one.  Silva has enough reach and is lanky enough that he could succeed in attaining the head and arm triangles that the shorter Rua could not get.  Silva's biggest weakness is wrestling and Jones is one of the best in the sport at it.  And unlike Chael Sonnen, Jones can finish his oponents.  It would be the first time Silva would be at such a massive disadvantage in size and reach.  If they were to fight, it needs to happen before the year ends, otherwise Anderson will be far too old for a youngster like Jonny Bones.
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua: Maybe a rematch with Forrest Griffin, or Rampage Jackson if he somehow loses to Matt Hamill.  Randy Couture would be an option as well.  I think a lot of Shogun's future hinges on that of his knees.  Was he slow and sluggish because Jones made him look that way, or was it because his layoff and knee surgery made him a lot slower.  His next fight should go a long ways in figuring that out.  A move to middleweight has been floated around, but I think that should only be considered if he loses his next fight at 205 lbs.  The Jones fight is the only one really in his entire career where he has been dominated.  On the other hand, I would say the odds of him ever beating Jones would be nil, so a move to 185 may be better long term.
Urijah Faber: Either a title match with Dominick Cruz or a fight with longtime 135 fan favorite Miguel Torres.  That fight seems less exciting now that Torres has decided to fight a much safer style, but it would still be a big one for fans of the lower weight classes.  The title match makes the most sense because Faber was the biggest draw in the WEC and putting him in the title picture will help put more interest in that weight class and in champion Cruz.
Jim Miller: A title eliminator, maybe with Melvin Guillard.  Miller has the longest winning streak in the lightweight division and has been taking care of business in exciting fashion.  I think that after the Pettis-Guida fight determines the next contender, Miller-Guillard should be the next contender.
Nate Marquardt: Who knows?  Marquardt is one step above gatekeeper status, but one step below top contender.  He just lost to Okami and Sonnen in the past thirteen months, so maybe Michael Bisping or Vitor Belfort would be the best bet for him.  A winner between Bisping and Marquardt could be the next contender for the MW title after Okami, or potentially GSP if he moves up in weight.
Brendan Schaub: A class in not punching the back of the head?  I'm not impressed by Schaub, although he has decent size and power.  He is still a prospect at this point.  He has no business with the big boys in the division, as they would lay him to waste.  I guess Stefan Struve would be a good next step, with the winner of that one fighting the winner of Frank Mir-Roy Nelson.  It's more likely he'll go right to the winner of Mir-Nelson.
Mirko Cro Cop: According to Dana White, retirement from the UFC.  It's fair, as he has not been very good in his stints inside the octagon, but he looked better than he has in some time in this fight.  He was active, moving, and actually looked motivated.  Besides, how many chances did Chuck Liddell get after a first round KO loss?  At least Mirko's last two losses have come in the third round, and this one after multiple hits to the back of the head.  I think he should at least get a retirement match against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, as neither of them really have much business fighting anymore and it would be cool as a fanboy to see those two go at it again.

That's it for now.  There's a Fight Night this weekend, so hopefully I'll figure out a way to access those fights and comment on them.

A Rant on Ring Rust

After Jon “Bones” Jones dismantled Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday to become the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in history, people have been writing stories about how this is the dawn of the Jones Era and how Bones will go down as an all time great. Of course there was one piece which pointed out that while Jones put on an impressive show, he did break some rules on his way to victory. But while people can rave about the amazing wrestling and striking abilities of Bones Jones or acknowledge that he cheaply resorted to elbowing Shogun in the throat and gouging at his face and head butting him, the one thing nobody seems to really be touching on is ring rust. Long layoffs have a huge effect on a fighter’s performance and have had an effect on at least three main event fights that come to mind immediately.

Shogun was in danger the moment Rashad Evans had to drop out of the title fight and was replaced with the much larger Jon Jones. Bones had a huge size advantage in the fight, so much so that even Joe Rogan commented that it seemed like Shogun wasn’t even in the same weight class. But regardless of his opponent, going into the fight Shogun had a massive challenge in front of him since he hadn’t fought since May 8, 2010.

Ten months off in the world of mixed martial arts is almost like a life time. The concerns of Shogun being too rusty weren’t that high initially since he was going to be fighting Rashad Evans, who hasn’t fought since May 29, 2010. It would be two guys not quite at their peak but still seemingly even matched, aside from the fact Shogun doesn’t do well against wrestlers and was coming back from knee surgery. But once Rashad got hurt and Bones Jones stepped in, there should have been red flags everywhere. Not only was Shogun going to be going against an opponent who looked like a giant next to him and had strengths that played into his weaknesses, but he’d be fighting a fresh and young fighter who could expose just how slow and sluggish almost a year off really makes you.

Shogun being slow following a knee surgery isn’t surprising since that’s how almost his entire UFC run has been aside from his five round war with Lyoto Machida and his lightning fast knockout of Machida in the rematch. But against Jones it didn’t appear Shogun was all that comfortable the moment the fight started. He was also completely gassed within the first few minutes. This could’ve been because Jones was smothering him with a brutal ground game, but the time off really does a lot to throw off your timing and cardio. Shogun’s gas tank was completely empty by the end of the first round, and for a guy who went five rounds with the most elusive striker in the division it seems likely that being on the sidelines for so long took a lot out of him. Rashad is already on death watch since he’s the next challenger to the title and Bones will demolish him, but having been off since May of last year is going to make his struggles even tougher.

Look at Rashad’s last fight for a classic example of what ring rust does to a fighter. Rashad faced off against Rampage Jackson in what was to be the biggest grudge match in UFC history. Rampage hadn’t fought since March of 2009. People didn’t focus on the ring rust factor since they were so pumped for the fight to finally happen, but when the fight stared it was very clear that Rampage had not been in the octagon in over a year. He spent nearly the entire fight gassed and unable to do anything other than get held against the cage. In the third round he finally rocked Rashad and it looked like he was about to finish the fight, only he got tired.

A few months later when Rampage fought Lyoto Machida he looked like a completely different fighter. His striking looked crisper, his movement was much better, and grappling didn’t leave him completely tired out like it did against Evans. If Rampage had fought like that against Rashad, that would’ve completely changed the title picture in the 205 division. Rampage would’ve been the number one contender, and when Shogun went down he probably would’ve had an interim title fight with Machida. But that year layoff led to a severe case of ring rust which changed the entire championship scene.

A few months before Rashad and Rampage fought, Tito Ortiz made his return to the UFC and had a rematch with Forrest Griffin. This was in November of 2009. Tito’s last fight before that had been in May of 2008. Tito looked fine as the fight against Forrest started, but by the end he had nothing going for him. His takedowns had no explosiveness on them, his striking was becoming lethargic, and he just looked largely unimpressive. Well over a year off will do that to you.

One fight that should’ve raised a lot of concern for the potential dangers of ring rust was Anderson Silva’s title defense against Vitor Befort last month. Belfort had last fought when he had returned to the UFC in September of 2009 and beat Rich Franklin. Again, his fight with Silva was last month, meaning February of 2011. Of course the greater concern was the sheer fact Belfort was fighting the greatest of all time and the deadliest striker in the history of the sport in a fight where Silva was coming in to send a message that he is unstoppable. Had Silva not destroyed Belfort with the greatest kick in history, Belfort’s performance later in the fight could have been subject to a great deal of ring rust since he hadn’t fought in about 17 months. People who wanted to see Silva lose so badly were ignoring the fact that it had been over 500 days since Belfort’s last fight. Though it seems doubtful you can make a case that ring rust cost Belfort since regardless of when his last fight was it is highly unlikely he could’ve defended that kick.

Again this isn’t to say that Jon Jones could not have beaten Shogun Rua if it wasn’t for that ten month layoff. Jones had such a size advantage and so much speed, Shogun was in serious danger no matter the condition of his knee or when his last fight had been. Shogun’s struggles with wrestling also would’ve been there regardless of how many months he had been off. But if he hadn’t been off for 10 months, it is hard to believe Shogun looking so drained and sluggish still. The outcome of the fight likely would’ve been the same, but it would’ve been much more competitive. There isn’t really anything the UFC can do to stop ring rust, but it is something more people need to take notice of when analyzing a fight.

Jon Jones: Too Much Too Soon...Or, Shogun's Last Stand?

This Saturday’s UFC Light Heavyweight Championship match between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Jon “Bones” Jones has a ton of interesting subplots and storylines heading into the fight and beyond it, really. I touched on a lot of them in my prediction post, but I want to use this space to delve further into them. I’ll try to break them up by topic to make everything easier to follow.

Is Jon Jones the future?
As stated by pretty much everyone, Jon Jones has the combination of skill, athleticism, youth, and charisma to be the future of the sport. At only 23 and in his eighth fight in the UFC, he finds himself gunning for a championship. Jones has so much hype surrounding him right now, that the Wall Street Journal just featured an article on him where he is being touted as the “transcendent star” the UFC has been looking for. On Thursday night, Spike TV is airing a 30-minute special on his meteoric rise from JUCO wrestling champion to top contender. His offense is unorthodox, constantly evolving, and heretofore unstoppable and; his preparations for opponents are intense; his 6’5 frame and 85” reach make him difficult to hit or control physically; and he comes across as clean-cut, intelligent, and articulate. These factors all make him someone who is easy to promote as the image of the sport. So to answer the above question, barring any unforeseen events, yes.

Does Jon Jones buy into his own hype? Will all the hype distract him?
A little bit, for the first part. He has been stating for the past six weeks that in his mind the fight is over and he has been the champion for some time. His confidence in his abilities in comparison to Shogun’s skills has come across as a bit irrational at best, and arrogant at worst. When combined with the media attention and betting lines that have him set as the favorite, it seems like Jones has bought into that hype quite a bit. He has been engaged in a bit of a tiff with fellow Greg Jackson trained fighter Rashad Evans after Jones said he would be willing to defend the title against him. Evans has responded to this poorly, with both parties forgetting that Jones has to beat Shogun first before any Evans/Jones title fight can occur. That being said, I think that Jones may be a bit distracted by being anointed the Chosen One, although a victory on Saturday would dispel me of that opinion pretty easily.

Why is Jones the favorite?
Jones is the favorite by a decent margin, but it isn’t surprising. Shogun has missed nearly a year of action due to knee surgery, his third major knee surgery over the past five years. On top of that, he has struggled against wrestlers and takedown defense is the weakest part of his game. Jones’ top game is smothering and his takedowns are damn nigh unstoppable. He will have a significant size advantage going into this fight, in theory making it difficult for Shogun to close the distance on him in the standup. His cardio should also be better than Shogun’s, as Rua has shown a tendency to gas against strong wrestlers. If anything, this is a much tougher fight for Shogun than the originally slated bout with Rashad Evans.

Is Shogun Rua being overlooked?
Oh, most definitely. If his knees are healthy, Shogun Rua is extremely dangerous. While Jones is being touted as the future, Shogun once had that expectation and right now at age 29 should be in the prime of his career. The last time Shogun was considered an underdog was against Lyoto Machida, and that did not work out well for Machida. People have forgotten that prior to his knee surgeries and 2007 loss to Forrest Griffin, Rua was the top ranked light heavyweight in the world, a position he currently holds. This is an extremely difficult fight for Jon Jones, so any discussion of Jones as the best should be stopped until the smoke clears Saturday night.

How much does Shogun’s experience help?
It helps a great deal. Rua has more than an idea of what it is like to be 23 and hyped. When Shogun was that age, he won the 2005 Pride Grand Prix. During that five month span, he gave Rampage Jackson the beating of a lifetime, beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in what I believe to be the greatest fight of all-time, mauled Alistair Overeem, and destroyed Ricardo Arona. His bouts with Lyoto Machida were the first time anyone ever really even hit Machida, much less knocked him out. Over the same period in his career, Jones has finished Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader. None of these men are slouches, but none are of the quality of fighters Shogun faced. Jones has never really been in a competitive fight before, so this is a big test for him.

If Jones is such a juggernaut, why and how could Rua win?Well, for starters Shogun has faced larger opponents before and won. Alistair Overeem is similar in height and build, and Rua finished him twice. He has beaten strong wrestlers in Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman. He has beaten unorthodox fighters like Machida. The hard part for Shogun is that Jones is all of these things rolled into one. Jones on the other hand, has really only fought wrestlers. He has never faced anyone with muay thai and jiu jitsu abilities before, much less someone of Rua’s caliber in those fields. Shogun holds a decisive advantage in finishing ability standing up and could conceivably knock out Jones, although it will not be easy for him to get inside enough to do so while managing to avoid Jones’ barrage of strikes and takedowns. I think his best and most likely chance to win comes via submission. It is inevitable that Jones will get him to the ground to uncork his ridiculous arsenal of elbows. Where Jones is weak, and what no analyst points out, is his posture. He is content to rain down strikes from open guard, but when he does so and when he postures up, he leaves his upper body and lanky arms dangling out there. Hamill, Vera, Matyushenko, and Bader are not submission experts and could not take advantage of this one glimmer of hope. Shogun is savvy and talented enough to do so, and I believe he will.


If your prediction is wrong, would you be surprised?
No, the only thing that would surprise me would be if it goes to decision. This is very much a “pick ‘em” fight. Jones has the look of someone who could dominate for a long time to come, but this is a lot of pressure and a tough battle for someone so young. Shogun is a legend in the sport, but he is going up against someone who is extremely talented and improving with each fight. Each man is capable of finishing the other one in spectacular fashion. It’s why I’m so excited about this fight and why every MMA fan should be too. Saturday night could usher in a new era with a Jones win, or Shogun Rua could set himself up as a dominant champion in a division lacking one since Chuck Liddell lost the belt five years ago. I can’t wait!