We have arrived at the NBA Finals! The fake analyst in me wants to say this is a great match-up between two hard-working teams and it will be a great series. The biased hack fan in me says this is just like last year’s Finals, in which a team that is all about the true team concept of putting five guys on the floor who can play well together plays against the Heat, a team of three superstars and a whole lotta front runners and ego. Either way you look at it, this will be a terrific series and it is going to define careers.
For Erik Spoelstra, this series means everything for his job. Pat Riley fired Stan Van Gundy when he failed to win a championship with Dwyane Wade and Shaq in their first year together, so why would Spoelsta be expected to keep his job if he fails two years in a row with the “Three Kings”? If Miami wins, Coach Spo suddenly becomes a master motivator on the level of Doc Rivers. People will forget they talked such trash about how inept and simplistic his style is and will instead say he was the right guy for this team all along. There will be no middle ground here. A tremendous amount of blame will be heaped upon Spoelstra is the Heatles fall short a second straight year, but a championship suddenly means he had control of this team all along and even through the struggles he had them right where he wanted them. That’s just how sports work. Look at how different the tune about LeBron James has become in just a few days.
When the Celtics took a 3-2 lead, LeBron wasn't doing enough and we were going to see LBJ fall flat yet again. Then he went off for 45-15-5 in Game 6 and hit an unreal 30-foot three-pointer to seal up Game 7 and everybody is talking about how LeBron is in the best stretch of his career and he is finally ready to make the jump. LeBron himself says he is a different man and is ready, but this is the same story every year and every year there is no ring for the king. A loss in this series defines LeBron's legacy as the guy who fled his team to join up with the guy who had already carried Antoine Walker, old Gary Payton, and broken-down Shaq to a championship. LeBron was supposed to blow Jordan away, but yet Jordan never lost in the Finals and LeBron has already lost twice, and could lose a third.
If the Heat lose, the story of the East becomes that Derrick Rose got injured, Avery Bradley went down with shoulder injuries, Ray Allen may need surgery, Paul Pierce has a sprained knee, and Boston was old and used up. LeBron joined Wade and Bosh tagged along because they thought it would be easy and they could run through the NBA, and a loss makes the Heat and LeBron look like a failure since even with an easier road to the title they couldn't get it done. Losing this championship defines LeBron as a regular season wonder who could never get it done when it mattered most. It is all the difference between being Karl Malone or one of the true greats.
Of course a win changes everything. With one championship, all the criticism goes away. Since Kobe Bryant won his MVP and then back-to-back championships, how many people talk about the dark days in Kobe's career? How often do you hear about the 2004 Lakers imploding because of the conflicts between Kobe and the rest of the team stemming from the rape accusations? What about Phil Jackson retiring and calling Kobe "uncoachable" in his book and LA trading Shaq away since they couldn't co-exist? Not many. All you hear about is how Kobe is an amazing scorer and defender and the best player of the post-Jordan era. If the Heat win the championship then all the trash that has been spoken about LeBron for the last few years will vanish. Winning that one title immediately makes LeBron the King and changes the narrative of his career from an amazing player that never reached his potential to a legend who vanquished all of his foes and became a champion.
For OKC, if Russell Westbrook has a bunch of games where he shoots poorly and the Thunder ultimately lose the championship, the talk of getting rid of him will once again pick up. People have been praising Westbrook and Durant's ability to coexist, but all it takes is one loss in the Finals and it is right back to "Westbrook needs to go." Of course Westbrook can be a problem and will take way too many shots when he should be deferring to Durantula. Sometimes he needs to understand he is the Rosie to Durant's Sophia Grace and he just needs to stand there and give Durant confidence and do some cool moves. If OKC drops games where Westbrook is shooting 30% then it will be seen as Westbrook's fault and people will want him traded.
It will also be interesting to see what happens with James Harden. He becomes a restricted free agent after next season, and with all the notoriety he is getting for his amazing play off the bench he could want a big pay day and sucker some team in to giving it to him. If the Thunder don't win this year, maybe he starts thinking about leaving if they lose next year too. Or maybe the Thunder win and Harden pulls a Trevor Ariza and goes and gets a big pay day after proving his worth on a championship team. Scott Brooks had to give Harden the hard sell to make him buy into his sixth man role, and though Harden says he is fine with his role now money always changes things. Will he play his little heart out to try and get a fat contract with some other team in the future?
For Durant this is a chance to become the best in the world. He'll be going against a guy who is seen as one of the best, if not the best perimeter defender in the league. He needs to be on his game for OKC to win. He shot over 50% both times these two teams met during the regular season. Durant needs to do that a few more times and get to the line often. He also needs to play good defense on LeBron and use his length to keep James from unleashing punishing drive after punishing drive and going off for monster games. Durant has been the challenger to LeBron's throne since LBJ's second MVP season and if he can outplay LeBron on the biggest stage in all of basketball and lead the Thunder to a title then he becomes the king of the league, the MVP favorite for next season, and the Thunder are title favorites for years to come.
The perimeter defense of the Heat could give OKC some fits, but the post defense of OKC can also give Miami fits. The Thunder have better rebounders and shot blockers than Boston did so LeBron will have a tougher time bum rushing the hoop. The keys here are if Westbrook can rip Mario Chalmers apart and still score when Dwyane Wade gets put on him, and if Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins can lock down the paint and exploit Miami's front court woes. However, a healthy Bosh, an attacking LeBron, and an active Wade could spell certain doom for OKC.
Thabo Sefolosha's defense on Wade will be a key to this series. Really OKC's team defense on Wade needs to take him out of the game since he may be more dangerous than LeBron in some respects. If Wade is attacking and has it going then Miami is too tough to stop. How many games in the Boston series did Wade get shut down in the first half only to come and and start driving and get his shot going in the second, making the game wicked hard for the C's? If OKC wants to win they needs to stop Wade from going off and they need Westbrook and Durant to play well. Also, on paper the Thunder hold a big edge on Miami in terms of the bench. They need those bench guys to step up since one of Miami's biggest knocks is a lack of depth.
For Miami to win they need to shut down Russell Westbrook. If he takes a ton of shots and misses a ton of shots, OKC is totally screwed. They also need to get the OKC bigs in foul trouble, which may not be that hard since the Heat are averaging 28 free throws per game these playoffs and if LeBron is driving then that opens everything up for his team and sends him to the line a lot. Miami has good defenders in James, Wade, Battier, and Haslem. Durant and Westbrook are prone to turnovers and if you turn the ball over against Miami you're as good as dead. Miami needs to use their great wing defending and get out and run in transition since that is where they break teams.
As for a prediction, my heart says OKC in six but my head says Miami in six. I would love for OKC to become this new dynasty and a superpower for years, but I think Miami has come too far to lose. You can blame it on NBA conspiracies, the Thunder's inexperience, or LeBron finally stepping up, but I think the Heat are going to win this series. I think LeBron and Wade are going to draw a lot of fouls and force too many turnovers. Westbrook is going to have two or three games where he takes way too many shots and costs the Thunder. Miami may have had their struggles in the last two rounds, but for whatever reason I just can't picture them falling short here. It would be pretty groovy if they lost though, but I don't find it likely.
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