Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Oh Boy: Heat-Celtics Game 5 Thoughts

And just like that, the Miami Heat's hopes for a second championship parade down Biscayne Boulevard were put on the ropes by a team nobody thought had a chance. Even this writer thought the Boston Celtics were getting swept.  But now we stand on the eve of Game 6, maybe the biggest game in the careers of so many parties, with Boston up 3-2 and Miami seemingly in search of their soul.

This was a Miami team that for a minute looked like they may not be able to beat the Indiana Pacers.  There have been multiple times this season where their aura of invincibility seemed pretty non-existent. People have said that Chris Bosh's injury doomed Miami. Injuries to Chris Bosh or not, the Heat have enough to beat Boston. Injuries can't always be an excuse since in 2010 the Celtics made the Finals despite fluid literally squirting out of Paul Pierce's knee before games.  Is it Bosh's injury that allowed Boston to get back into this series and put Miami on the brink, or is it something worse?

The Boshtrich is needed since he would make Kevin Garnett work on the defensive end, but you're going to rely on Udonis Haslem to stop KG from scoring. Garnett is 36 years old now, with career averages of 19.3 points per game on 50% shooting and 10.6 rebounds per game.  This series he is averaging 21.6 points per game on 49% shooting to go with 10.8 rebounds per.  Well thanks Haslem.  Missing Bosh sucks for Miami since it takes away an offensive option, but in terms of defense they should have enough to stop an old man like KG from taking them to the woodshed. And will somebody do something about Rajon Rondo?

Rondo's season averages: 11.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 11.7 assists with 45% shooting from the floor and 60% shooting from the foul line. His averages against Miami: 20.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 11 assists with 48% shooting from the floor and 71% at the foul line.  His scoring average is inflated thanks to his 44-point explosion in Game 2, but even without that his scoring and shooting percentage are up from his usual.  Rondo has no fear no matter who is guarding him and he is tearing Miami apart.

Not having Bosh on the offensive end hurts, but for a team that prides itself in defense the Heat should still have enough to take care of business.  Game 4 was decided by two points, Game 5 by four. Not having Bosh around is a bummer, but the Heat eliminated Indiana and went up 2-0 on Boston without him then lost in OT in Game 4 and had Bosh last night but lost another close one.  The chances were there and Miami has the MVP of the league and a former Finals MVP. This quick, aggressive, defensive-minded team should be able to pull out victories over the old Celtics.  Bosh's strained abdomen is a problem, but that is not why they are staring down elimination tomorrow. Pierce, Allen, and Rondo shot terribly yesterday but still Boston won. This is cause for alarm.

Erik Spoelstra's poor decision making may have cost Miami big time yesterday. Chris Bosh had not played in three weeks due to his strained abdomen, but he came back for Game 5.  His minute limit was 25, and in 14 minutes he put up 9 points and 7 boards and was very aggressive on offense, something the Heat sorely needed.  Bosh did not play in the fourth quarter.  Erik Spoelstra said it would not have been "fair" to put Bosh in that situation.  It is one thing to hold a guy back and let him rest in the regular season, but when an All Star scorer nearly has a double-double in 14 minutes and you are in a dog fight with control of the series on the line you can't hold back.  Bosh was a step slow on defense since he hasn't played, but you need offense from somebody other than Wade and LeBron and the Boshtrich is the best bet. As I wrote the other day, Bosh is needed to space the floor so Wade and James don't have to work so much and that would have been a huge help in the fourth quarter. Spoelstra didn't see it that way and that may be a big part of the reason Miami is down 3-2.

Another problem is that for all of LeBron's amazing play this series, it stunningly is not enough, and this is not because I'm not a LeBron fan.  LeBron is averaging 31.8 points and 10 rebounds per game and shooting 50% from the field. Very good stats, but there's more to it.  His regular season assist average was 6.2, but it is at 4 in this series along with 3.4 turnovers per game.  That is not good.  LeBron only attempted 2.4 three pointers per game during the season, but is attempting 4.4 per game against the C's this series.  James shot 36% from deep during the season, but now he's at 27%.  He had one of his best free throw shooting seasons at 77% but somehow against Boston it has dropped to 65.  And last night Dwyane Wade attempted more shots in the fourth quarter (9) than James (6).  LeBron is trying hard, but Miami still needs more out of him.

What is as frustrating as the fact LeBron is attempting so many threes and turning it over almost as often as he assists, is the fact that in the last two games he has only attempted a grand total of four free throws in the two fourth quarters. It is admirable that LeBron wants to get his team involved so much, but he needs to develop a killer instinct.  LeBron needs to understand that as the league's MVP and the greatest athlete to ever play the game he has to take over.  Nobody else even needs to really touch the ball, just put your head down and drive to the basket.  Wade may be his friend and he trusts Wade, but sometimes you have to realize you're the most unstoppable player and you have to put the burden of the team on your shoulders completely.

As good as LeBron has been these playoffs, he needs to be better.  He certainly isn't doing anything to shoot down the criticisms of not having the desire to win by saying things like "I think we played good enough to give ourselves a chance to win, and that's all you can ask for." The Heat are a team with everything to prove, and LeBron has to prove he is worthy of being the three-time MVP. Saying they tried hard and that's enough is not enough at all.  It is kind of sad and very frustrating that somebody with so much skill still apparently lacks the ferocious, take-no-prisoners attitude you would expect of somebody who wants to win so bad.

Of course it all comes back to Michael Jordan since LeBron was supposed to be on his level. Bulls center Luc Longley was once asked to describe MJ with one word, and he replied, "predator." Jordan didn't just say he wanted to win, he was going to do whatever it takes and would accept nothing less than a title.  If the game was tight, Jordan would drive to the hoop and try to get to the foul line. Wade did this same thing in 2006 against Dallas. LeBron needs to do it now. There can be no settling for a good effort, there has to be the MVP taking over.

Erik Spoelstra looked pretty bummed out in his post-game interview.  I felt so uncomfortable trying to watch him because he was trying to act like everything was cool and this was no big deal, but they were just empty words.  There's plenty of reason to be concerned. The Heat have had problems executing down the stretch for two seasons despite having two of the top players in the world. Their simplistic play designs have screwed them over for two seasons. Bosh wasn't in the fourth quarter last night despite playing well. I like Spoelstra and I think he has done a good job,  but if the Heat go home tomorrow, and I don't mean for Game 7, then Coach Spo is gone.  I felt awkward watching him try to brush this off as just another mountain for a tough team to climb. I had Bruce Springsteen's Dead Man Walking stuck in my head as I watched it unfold. The blame is going to fall on Spoelstra if they lose, and he will be gone.

Of course Miami is not done and a loss in Game 6 is not a foregone conclusion.  Bosh will play more in Game 6 and will be much more capable, most likely giving Boston's defense some fits and opening things up for Wade and James.  Also, just because the game will be in Boston it doesn't mean Boston will win.  The Celtics have problems closing teams out. They have for ages and there is not a great reason to expect anything different tomorrow. And everybody is talking about how Miami is done and unraveled. If the Heat win tomorrow suddenly there was never any cause for worry.  But Boston has exposed flaws in Miami and shown that no matter what happens in the rest of this series, the Heat are very beatable.

As for the Celtics, they remain pretty boring to discuss since they come out, play hard, go home. Their offense is hideous, but luckily they pride themselves on tough defense.  Rondo and Garnett are carrying this team and need to play magnificent one more time to make their third NBA Finals in five seasons.  You can sense the urgency since the big three all realize that their championship window is just about shut.  Rajon Rondo has shown he has all the tools to be the best point guard in the game if he could just shoot as well as he has been consistently. If he improves his jumper and foul shooting he could be unstoppable.  He is out-hustling everybody on the court and always seems to be in the perfect spot, like on his incredible tip to Mickael Pietrus for the three.

Doc Rivers is cementing himself as one of the greatest coaches of all time.  People have been saying Boston was too old by the third season the big three were together, but they could be back in the Finals. Rivers has his team playing terrific defense and their confidence is through the roof.  Just like in 2010 when nobody thought they had a shot against Cleveland, Rivers got his group to play at a level nobody thought they could by that point and they sent the Cavs home. They came so close to winning the championship that year but fell in seven games to the Lakers, failing to close LA out in six. Once again people were saying the Celtics were too old and banged up to make a run to the Finals, but all they have to do is execute for 48 more minutes and they can make it back.

And can we finally accept Paul Pierce is one of the greatest closers of all time? He is never afraid to take the big shots when it is all on the line. He took the ball to the basket to get to the line so he could give Boston the 87-85 lead, then despite being only 5-18 from the floor the Truth hit a wicked three over LeBron to make it 90-86 and send Miami reeling. His laughter afterwards was ridiculous. That play was indicative of the entire series. There is no reason old, hobbled Pierce should be able to make the young and athletic LeBron look silly just like there is no reason for these old Celtics to be making the quick and young Heat look bad, but somehow it is happening.

This has been an entertaining series and it has been full of surprises.  Tomorrow night is a huge game since the legacy of both team's big threes are resting on it.  The Heat have to execute and LeBron has to play even better than he already has through these playoffs.  The Celtics have to prove they can finally close out a team when they need to since if they let Miami back into it tomorrow, there will be no stopping the Heat from going all the way.

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