Tomorrow, April 21, marks the first UFC pay per view in six weeks and it is headlined by one of the two biggest grudge matches the company has to offer. Light heavyweight Champion and company golden child Jon Jones takes on former teammate at Greg Jackson's camp, the former champion Rashad Evans. This match has been in the offing for roughly a year, but injuries (legitimate or questionable) and mismatching timetables have put this off until now. This is essentially a one card show, as the rest of the night features prospects and not quite ready for primetime players looking to get exposure from the hype the main event is receiving. Therefore, rather than go into each fight in excruciating detail, Joe and I are solely discussing the main event.
This fight is happening now for several reasons. First, Rashad Evans was originally slated to fight for the title March 2011, but suffered an injury in training that forced him to pull out. He was replaced by Jon Jones, who thoroughly abused Shogun Rua en route to a TKO win. Prior to this fight, Jones made the comment that if he had to, he would be willing to face Evans. Rashad took umbrage at this remark, left Greg Jackson's camp and the two were slated to fight last July. Jones then pulled out of this fight with a hand injury requiring surgery and was eventually replaced by Tito Ortiz. Oddly enough, he then opted out of having the surgery two weeks later and signed an agreement to face Rampage Jackson last September. Rashad was miffed and accused Jones of chicanery. Rashad then annihilated Tito and Jones dispatched Jackson with ease. Unfortunately for Evans, he suffered a broken hand in this fight and had to sit out until January. In the meantime, Jones defeated Lyoto Machida after a brief scare that saw him get tagged for the first time in his career. Evans then solidified his top contender status by beating Phil Davis in a dominant but dull decision.
That brings us to now. A year's worth of verbal sniping and waiting ends this Saturday. At this point the feud has evolved from Evans and Jones to Evans and Greg Jackson, but that is a discussion for another time and place. Jackson does play a key role though, as he is still coaching Jones and was Evans' principal trainer for several years. While Evans says that his time sparring with Jones gives him more insight into Bones than anyone else has, I think it is a bigger detriment to Rashad. Jones has experience sparring with him, plus the knowledge and gameplanning from the coach that helped Evans ascend to the top of the division and really played a vital role in the development of his skills.
Me: As much as this mental aspect of the two men knowing each other well plays a role, the physical differences are quite pronounced. Jones is 6'4 and has an 84" reach, while Evans is about 5'11 and is giving up just under a foot of reach. Also, Jones is considering moving to heavyweight in the next year and Evans could cut to 185 lbs. with little trouble. Most analysts are discussing Rashad's speed advantage, but I'm not totally convinced that he holds that strongly enough to get inside on the lanky Jones. That is his real key, as Jones controls distance better than anyone else not named Anderson Silva. I'm apt to criticize Jones for shoddy footwork or lacking power because he is too busy going for style over substance, but he is amazing at keeping opponents at the range he wants them at until he chooses to go for a clinch throw and those brutals elbows.
If Evans can get inside of Jones' reach and land a big shot, he has a chance to get a win. I don't think he has a way of winning a decision, as the odds of him landing a big enough blow to set up enough takedowns to ride out five rounds without getting finished are slim. He could possibly steal a round or two, but I think Jones being bigger and stronger than him makes it tough to get a finish. I see Evans maybe eeking out a round or two early on before Jones adjusts. He did this remarkably well in the Machida fight in the second round and got the stoppage after being knocked around in the first. I don't know how well Rashad can adjust. He failed to adjust against Machida and got killed. He caught Forrest while he slipped in the third round of their title fight and was able to exploit that opportunity. Rashad is typically a smart fighter with a sound (but dull) gameplan, but I don't think he can use that against Jones. I would like to see him win and see Jones knocked down a peg, but I give Rashad about a 25 percent chance of winning. I think after about two rounds of feeling it out, Jones opens up in the third and ends it in the fourth. Winner by fourth round TKO: Jon Jones
Joe: Earlier Jimmy asked me if I thought Rashad has more than a 10 percent chance of winning. I said he has at least a 35 percent chance of beating Bones. The biggest thing Rashad has to do, and everybody who has analyzed the fight has said it, is attack Jones early. He is going to be so much smaller than Bones it will be ridiculous. Jon Jones is almost a half foot taller and will have nearly ten inches of reach over Evans. Working around the height of Jones is one thing, but his length is going to be the biggest obstacle Evans will face in his entire career most likely. What Jon Jones has yet to pick up in technique he makes up for by understanding how to use his reach. He can use his length to easily keep people from getting in on him, though against Rampage he just ran away rather than actually defend Jones has newfound confidence after being able to take Machida’s stand-up in his last fight, and that makes him even more dangerous since now he probably won’t worry about if he can take a shot or not. But while Jones is constantly improving, there are still holes in his game, and Machida kept attacking and looked like he was on pace to outstrike Jones early on. Then the fight went to the ground and Machida was done.
The same goes for Rashad here. He has to avoid the ground and push the pace early and use a Randy Couture-style game plan of closing off the distance and using the dirty boxing from the clinch. There are a few problems with that still since he has to be strong enough to muscle Jones around, come in, strike fast, then move out before Jones throws him around. Also he has to hope and pray he hits Jones with one of those big punches that finished Chuck Liddell or almost finished Rampage Jackson. It has to happen quick too because the longer this fight goes the more likely it is that Jones does one of his suplexes from the clinch and then pounds Rashad into a pulp on the mat. Some people say Rashad’s best course of action is taking Jones down but I disagree. I don’t know if he has the strength to even get Jones down, and I would want to avoid any situation where you can get rolled over and then start eating those vicious elbows Jones has or he can use those long arms to lock in a choke. Rashad has the power to finish Jones and he is faster than Rampage so he has a better chance of getting in and landing one of those punches, but he is so much smaller than Jones it is going to be very difficult. Jones still has a lot to learn, but he is very strong and has knows exactly how to use his size so he has been able to dominate at 205. It is not very likely Rashad catches him flush within the first 5-7 minutes of the fight so we can expect Jones using his reach to keep Rashad back, picking him apart for a round or two, then bringing him down and finishing him off. Jones by TKO in Round 3.
There you have it. Feel free to share your pick on facebook or in the comment section. I'm sure we'll discuss the fallout from this fight at some point next week.
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