Thursday, July 28, 2011

Strikeforce: Fedor vs Henderson Thoughts and Prediction

This Saturday on Showtime, Strikeforce will be running another event. For the life of me, I don’t know most of the card but it is headlined by an intriguing fight: Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Dan Henderson in a heavyweight bout against the former longtime PRIDE Heavyweight Champ Fedor Emelianenko. As both men are legends in MMA and nearing the ends of their illustrious careers, it is definitely a match worth seeing.

What irks me about this fight is that it is being catered to Fedor unfairly. Henderson is going to come into the fight weighing about 206 lbs., roughly the same as when he fights at light heavyweight. Fedor will be coming in at around 225-230 lbs., meaning Hendo will be at a significant weight disadvantage. Originally talk had centered around a catchweight of 215 lbs. or even having Fedor cut down to light heavyweight, but Fedor and his M-1 Global camp balked at the suggestions. This would make sense if Fedor was still chumping fighters like it was 2005, but the reality of it is that Fedor looked terrible in his two recent losses (the first real losses of his career) and was losing to Andrei Arlovski and Brett Rogers before a glass jaw and inexperience respectively ended their nights. If anything, Strikeforce should be catering more to Hendo. He has apparently moved on from being a solid, if unspectacular, middleweight and has looked very good at light heavyweight., where he has won two straight fights by knockout. It’s quite the late resurgence for the man who at one point held the 205 and 185 titles in PRIDE, the only man in MMA to hold two titles simultaneously.

Henderson deserves a lot of credit for taking this fight and not . The last time he fought against a heavyweight, he was a game opponent for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in 2002. He held his own into the third round despite giving up over 30 lbs., where he was eventually submitted by Big Nog. Even though Fedor’s star has lost some of its luster, this is still a tough match up for Hendo.

For Fedor, this is a make or break fight for him. As mentioned prior, he has not looked particularly impressive since choking out Tim Sylvia in under a minute three years ago. His last two losses, while considered huge upsets, can still be rationalized and don’t necessarily mean he’s done. Werdum is one of the best BJJ practitioners in MMA and getting submitted by him isn’t a huge deal and in the Antonio Silva fight, Fedor was giving up roughly 50 lbs. and was outmuscled. What is troubling for Fedor is that his physique, well never impressive, has looked even doughier and calls into question his motivation and effort at this stage in his career. If he gets levelled or dominated by the much smaller Henderson, retirement should be his next step. If he loses an exciting, close fight he can be given the benefit of the doubt since Hendo is one of the all-time greats. For Henderson, a loss isn’t as big a deal since he is a lot older and a lot smaller than Fedor. When you come in at a disadvantage and lose, it doesn’t really hurt you. A win under those circumstances, even against a past his prime Fedor, is a big deal.

Fedor could really use an impressive win in order to continue his career, if that’s what he wants to do. Henderson has always been tough to finish, so if he can do that it will help to wash away the bad taste from his last few fights. I don’t know that he will though. I think at this point in their careers, Hendo is more motivated and in better condition than Fedor. It seems like Emelianenko just continues to fight to have something to occupy his time, not out of any real desire to do it. That’s always the wrong mindset to go into a fight with, and as other fighters’ training and conditioning improves, Fedor seems to stagnate and not care that he is. If I had to put my money down on a fighter, I would say Dan Henderson by decision. Either way, I’m excited to see how this fight turns out. It isn’t every month that two legends, even ones not at their peak, go against each other.

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