UFC 128: Thoughts, Observations, and Where Do We Go From Here?

UFC 128 is in the books and now there's a new Light Heavyweight Champion, and his name is Jon Jones.  My prediction of a Shogun submission was misguided, although I did say a 2nd or 3rd round Jones win by TKO was very possible.  It turned out to be a 3rd round TKO for Jonny Bones, in a fight that could only be characterized as lopsided.

Jones annihilated Shogun in a way that no one ever has.  From the onset until the end, Jones was all over him.  Shogun's face was a swollen, bloody mess and his body was littered with welts from an onslaught of body shots and knees.  According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Shogun 102 to 11.  Jones effectively used his range and takedowns and went through the fight unscathed while landing everything he wanted to at will.  If he continues to improve at the rate he has from fight to fight, he could end up being the most terrifying specimen in MMA history.

Other Thoughts:

• What was the deal with the fans chanting "USA" during the main event?  They didn't chant it during the Cro Cop-Schaub fight or the Miller-Shalorus one, and that featured a Jersey native against an Iranian.  To chant that during the main event was disrespectful to Shogun, a true legend in the sport, and moronic.  This isn't the World Cup.  It isn't about country vs. country.  It's just a fight.
• I thought the Greg Jackson fighters on the card tonight, except Nate Marquardt, fought dirty.  Brendan Schaub was deducted a point for punches to the back of the head, something he did throughout the fight.  Jones got away with a lot of illegal choking via forearm and the rape choke during his fight.  He also headbutted Shogun in the midsection, which I'm pretty sure is illegal as well.  Herb Dean was the referee in both matches, and he is usually on the money, but I thought he really dropped the ball with that.  Especially in the Jones fight, as Jones was dominating even without having to resort to choking.  Speaking of Jones, his push kicks to Shogun's surgically repaired knee, while legal, were a bit cheap.  He already had a speed, strength, and size advanage and didn't need to resort to that.  I don't like it when Anderson Silva does that either.  It can cripple an opponent and to do it to someone coming off of knee surgery is double uncool.
• I mentioned Brendan Schaub a few sentences ago, and I must say that he was lucky.  He did nothing for two and a half rounds except for rabbit punches, wall and stall, and lay and pray.  He was gassed and Mirko seemed to have risen from the grave in the third round and was really taking it to him.  It looked like Cro Cop was going to salvage a draw or even a victory, before a lucky shot crumpled him.  Upon multiple viewings, I thought that the punch was to the back of the head.  When Joe Rogan said that Schaub was scary because he has wins over two legends, Gabe Gonzaga and Cro Cop, I had to laugh.  Gonzaga is no legend, and he struggled mightily against a Cro Cop that hasn't been considered truly dangerous since Gonzaga of all people knocked him out in 2007.
• The brothers Miller crying in the locker room was a touching scene.  Evidently, it would have been the second birthday of Dan Miller's deceased son.  Combined with Dan's tough (but clear cut) decision loss and Jim's knockout victory, the emotions were running wild in their locker room.  Words can't really do it justice.
• With the knockouts of both Cro Cop and Shogun, Pride was pretty much buried for good.  Cro Cop has been finished for awhile, but Shogun has never been handled in that fashion.  It seems like there are only two guys who achieved a great deal of success in Pride that are relevant still: Quinton Jackson and Dan Henderson.  Over the next few weeks, I'm going to try to write a series of articles on Pride and its legacy in MMA, including the death of the Pride superstars.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Jon Jones: A battle against former training partner Rashad Evans has been confirmed, one in which I would expect the undersized Evans to be manhandled by Jones.  Evans usually succeeds due to better wrestling and a speed advantage, neither of which he will have in this fight.  I think Lyoto Machida, if he can get himself back into title contention, would be the biggest challenge to Jones.  Jones exposed his back and legs a few times to Shogun, who was too beat up to really capitalize.  Machida is a much better grappler than Rua and more willing to let Jones come to him, rather than try and fail to get in on Jones' monster reach advantage.  People are clamoring for Anderson Silva to move up and face Jones, which would be an exciting fight and, as a fan of Silva's, a terrifying one.  Silva has enough reach and is lanky enough that he could succeed in attaining the head and arm triangles that the shorter Rua could not get.  Silva's biggest weakness is wrestling and Jones is one of the best in the sport at it.  And unlike Chael Sonnen, Jones can finish his oponents.  It would be the first time Silva would be at such a massive disadvantage in size and reach.  If they were to fight, it needs to happen before the year ends, otherwise Anderson will be far too old for a youngster like Jonny Bones.
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua: Maybe a rematch with Forrest Griffin, or Rampage Jackson if he somehow loses to Matt Hamill.  Randy Couture would be an option as well.  I think a lot of Shogun's future hinges on that of his knees.  Was he slow and sluggish because Jones made him look that way, or was it because his layoff and knee surgery made him a lot slower.  His next fight should go a long ways in figuring that out.  A move to middleweight has been floated around, but I think that should only be considered if he loses his next fight at 205 lbs.  The Jones fight is the only one really in his entire career where he has been dominated.  On the other hand, I would say the odds of him ever beating Jones would be nil, so a move to 185 may be better long term.
Urijah Faber: Either a title match with Dominick Cruz or a fight with longtime 135 fan favorite Miguel Torres.  That fight seems less exciting now that Torres has decided to fight a much safer style, but it would still be a big one for fans of the lower weight classes.  The title match makes the most sense because Faber was the biggest draw in the WEC and putting him in the title picture will help put more interest in that weight class and in champion Cruz.
Jim Miller: A title eliminator, maybe with Melvin Guillard.  Miller has the longest winning streak in the lightweight division and has been taking care of business in exciting fashion.  I think that after the Pettis-Guida fight determines the next contender, Miller-Guillard should be the next contender.
Nate Marquardt: Who knows?  Marquardt is one step above gatekeeper status, but one step below top contender.  He just lost to Okami and Sonnen in the past thirteen months, so maybe Michael Bisping or Vitor Belfort would be the best bet for him.  A winner between Bisping and Marquardt could be the next contender for the MW title after Okami, or potentially GSP if he moves up in weight.
Brendan Schaub: A class in not punching the back of the head?  I'm not impressed by Schaub, although he has decent size and power.  He is still a prospect at this point.  He has no business with the big boys in the division, as they would lay him to waste.  I guess Stefan Struve would be a good next step, with the winner of that one fighting the winner of Frank Mir-Roy Nelson.  It's more likely he'll go right to the winner of Mir-Nelson.
Mirko Cro Cop: According to Dana White, retirement from the UFC.  It's fair, as he has not been very good in his stints inside the octagon, but he looked better than he has in some time in this fight.  He was active, moving, and actually looked motivated.  Besides, how many chances did Chuck Liddell get after a first round KO loss?  At least Mirko's last two losses have come in the third round, and this one after multiple hits to the back of the head.  I think he should at least get a retirement match against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, as neither of them really have much business fighting anymore and it would be cool as a fanboy to see those two go at it again.

That's it for now.  There's a Fight Night this weekend, so hopefully I'll figure out a way to access those fights and comment on them.

A Rant on Ring Rust

After Jon “Bones” Jones dismantled Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on Saturday to become the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in history, people have been writing stories about how this is the dawn of the Jones Era and how Bones will go down as an all time great. Of course there was one piece which pointed out that while Jones put on an impressive show, he did break some rules on his way to victory. But while people can rave about the amazing wrestling and striking abilities of Bones Jones or acknowledge that he cheaply resorted to elbowing Shogun in the throat and gouging at his face and head butting him, the one thing nobody seems to really be touching on is ring rust. Long layoffs have a huge effect on a fighter’s performance and have had an effect on at least three main event fights that come to mind immediately.

Shogun was in danger the moment Rashad Evans had to drop out of the title fight and was replaced with the much larger Jon Jones. Bones had a huge size advantage in the fight, so much so that even Joe Rogan commented that it seemed like Shogun wasn’t even in the same weight class. But regardless of his opponent, going into the fight Shogun had a massive challenge in front of him since he hadn’t fought since May 8, 2010.

Ten months off in the world of mixed martial arts is almost like a life time. The concerns of Shogun being too rusty weren’t that high initially since he was going to be fighting Rashad Evans, who hasn’t fought since May 29, 2010. It would be two guys not quite at their peak but still seemingly even matched, aside from the fact Shogun doesn’t do well against wrestlers and was coming back from knee surgery. But once Rashad got hurt and Bones Jones stepped in, there should have been red flags everywhere. Not only was Shogun going to be going against an opponent who looked like a giant next to him and had strengths that played into his weaknesses, but he’d be fighting a fresh and young fighter who could expose just how slow and sluggish almost a year off really makes you.

Shogun being slow following a knee surgery isn’t surprising since that’s how almost his entire UFC run has been aside from his five round war with Lyoto Machida and his lightning fast knockout of Machida in the rematch. But against Jones it didn’t appear Shogun was all that comfortable the moment the fight started. He was also completely gassed within the first few minutes. This could’ve been because Jones was smothering him with a brutal ground game, but the time off really does a lot to throw off your timing and cardio. Shogun’s gas tank was completely empty by the end of the first round, and for a guy who went five rounds with the most elusive striker in the division it seems likely that being on the sidelines for so long took a lot out of him. Rashad is already on death watch since he’s the next challenger to the title and Bones will demolish him, but having been off since May of last year is going to make his struggles even tougher.

Look at Rashad’s last fight for a classic example of what ring rust does to a fighter. Rashad faced off against Rampage Jackson in what was to be the biggest grudge match in UFC history. Rampage hadn’t fought since March of 2009. People didn’t focus on the ring rust factor since they were so pumped for the fight to finally happen, but when the fight stared it was very clear that Rampage had not been in the octagon in over a year. He spent nearly the entire fight gassed and unable to do anything other than get held against the cage. In the third round he finally rocked Rashad and it looked like he was about to finish the fight, only he got tired.

A few months later when Rampage fought Lyoto Machida he looked like a completely different fighter. His striking looked crisper, his movement was much better, and grappling didn’t leave him completely tired out like it did against Evans. If Rampage had fought like that against Rashad, that would’ve completely changed the title picture in the 205 division. Rampage would’ve been the number one contender, and when Shogun went down he probably would’ve had an interim title fight with Machida. But that year layoff led to a severe case of ring rust which changed the entire championship scene.

A few months before Rashad and Rampage fought, Tito Ortiz made his return to the UFC and had a rematch with Forrest Griffin. This was in November of 2009. Tito’s last fight before that had been in May of 2008. Tito looked fine as the fight against Forrest started, but by the end he had nothing going for him. His takedowns had no explosiveness on them, his striking was becoming lethargic, and he just looked largely unimpressive. Well over a year off will do that to you.

One fight that should’ve raised a lot of concern for the potential dangers of ring rust was Anderson Silva’s title defense against Vitor Befort last month. Belfort had last fought when he had returned to the UFC in September of 2009 and beat Rich Franklin. Again, his fight with Silva was last month, meaning February of 2011. Of course the greater concern was the sheer fact Belfort was fighting the greatest of all time and the deadliest striker in the history of the sport in a fight where Silva was coming in to send a message that he is unstoppable. Had Silva not destroyed Belfort with the greatest kick in history, Belfort’s performance later in the fight could have been subject to a great deal of ring rust since he hadn’t fought in about 17 months. People who wanted to see Silva lose so badly were ignoring the fact that it had been over 500 days since Belfort’s last fight. Though it seems doubtful you can make a case that ring rust cost Belfort since regardless of when his last fight was it is highly unlikely he could’ve defended that kick.

Again this isn’t to say that Jon Jones could not have beaten Shogun Rua if it wasn’t for that ten month layoff. Jones had such a size advantage and so much speed, Shogun was in serious danger no matter the condition of his knee or when his last fight had been. Shogun’s struggles with wrestling also would’ve been there regardless of how many months he had been off. But if he hadn’t been off for 10 months, it is hard to believe Shogun looking so drained and sluggish still. The outcome of the fight likely would’ve been the same, but it would’ve been much more competitive. There isn’t really anything the UFC can do to stop ring rust, but it is something more people need to take notice of when analyzing a fight.

Jon Jones: Too Much Too Soon...Or, Shogun's Last Stand?

This Saturday’s UFC Light Heavyweight Championship match between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Jon “Bones” Jones has a ton of interesting subplots and storylines heading into the fight and beyond it, really. I touched on a lot of them in my prediction post, but I want to use this space to delve further into them. I’ll try to break them up by topic to make everything easier to follow.

Is Jon Jones the future?
As stated by pretty much everyone, Jon Jones has the combination of skill, athleticism, youth, and charisma to be the future of the sport. At only 23 and in his eighth fight in the UFC, he finds himself gunning for a championship. Jones has so much hype surrounding him right now, that the Wall Street Journal just featured an article on him where he is being touted as the “transcendent star” the UFC has been looking for. On Thursday night, Spike TV is airing a 30-minute special on his meteoric rise from JUCO wrestling champion to top contender. His offense is unorthodox, constantly evolving, and heretofore unstoppable and; his preparations for opponents are intense; his 6’5 frame and 85” reach make him difficult to hit or control physically; and he comes across as clean-cut, intelligent, and articulate. These factors all make him someone who is easy to promote as the image of the sport. So to answer the above question, barring any unforeseen events, yes.

Does Jon Jones buy into his own hype? Will all the hype distract him?
A little bit, for the first part. He has been stating for the past six weeks that in his mind the fight is over and he has been the champion for some time. His confidence in his abilities in comparison to Shogun’s skills has come across as a bit irrational at best, and arrogant at worst. When combined with the media attention and betting lines that have him set as the favorite, it seems like Jones has bought into that hype quite a bit. He has been engaged in a bit of a tiff with fellow Greg Jackson trained fighter Rashad Evans after Jones said he would be willing to defend the title against him. Evans has responded to this poorly, with both parties forgetting that Jones has to beat Shogun first before any Evans/Jones title fight can occur. That being said, I think that Jones may be a bit distracted by being anointed the Chosen One, although a victory on Saturday would dispel me of that opinion pretty easily.

Why is Jones the favorite?
Jones is the favorite by a decent margin, but it isn’t surprising. Shogun has missed nearly a year of action due to knee surgery, his third major knee surgery over the past five years. On top of that, he has struggled against wrestlers and takedown defense is the weakest part of his game. Jones’ top game is smothering and his takedowns are damn nigh unstoppable. He will have a significant size advantage going into this fight, in theory making it difficult for Shogun to close the distance on him in the standup. His cardio should also be better than Shogun’s, as Rua has shown a tendency to gas against strong wrestlers. If anything, this is a much tougher fight for Shogun than the originally slated bout with Rashad Evans.

Is Shogun Rua being overlooked?
Oh, most definitely. If his knees are healthy, Shogun Rua is extremely dangerous. While Jones is being touted as the future, Shogun once had that expectation and right now at age 29 should be in the prime of his career. The last time Shogun was considered an underdog was against Lyoto Machida, and that did not work out well for Machida. People have forgotten that prior to his knee surgeries and 2007 loss to Forrest Griffin, Rua was the top ranked light heavyweight in the world, a position he currently holds. This is an extremely difficult fight for Jon Jones, so any discussion of Jones as the best should be stopped until the smoke clears Saturday night.

How much does Shogun’s experience help?
It helps a great deal. Rua has more than an idea of what it is like to be 23 and hyped. When Shogun was that age, he won the 2005 Pride Grand Prix. During that five month span, he gave Rampage Jackson the beating of a lifetime, beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in what I believe to be the greatest fight of all-time, mauled Alistair Overeem, and destroyed Ricardo Arona. His bouts with Lyoto Machida were the first time anyone ever really even hit Machida, much less knocked him out. Over the same period in his career, Jones has finished Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader. None of these men are slouches, but none are of the quality of fighters Shogun faced. Jones has never really been in a competitive fight before, so this is a big test for him.

If Jones is such a juggernaut, why and how could Rua win?Well, for starters Shogun has faced larger opponents before and won. Alistair Overeem is similar in height and build, and Rua finished him twice. He has beaten strong wrestlers in Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman. He has beaten unorthodox fighters like Machida. The hard part for Shogun is that Jones is all of these things rolled into one. Jones on the other hand, has really only fought wrestlers. He has never faced anyone with muay thai and jiu jitsu abilities before, much less someone of Rua’s caliber in those fields. Shogun holds a decisive advantage in finishing ability standing up and could conceivably knock out Jones, although it will not be easy for him to get inside enough to do so while managing to avoid Jones’ barrage of strikes and takedowns. I think his best and most likely chance to win comes via submission. It is inevitable that Jones will get him to the ground to uncork his ridiculous arsenal of elbows. Where Jones is weak, and what no analyst points out, is his posture. He is content to rain down strikes from open guard, but when he does so and when he postures up, he leaves his upper body and lanky arms dangling out there. Hamill, Vera, Matyushenko, and Bader are not submission experts and could not take advantage of this one glimmer of hope. Shogun is savvy and talented enough to do so, and I believe he will.


If your prediction is wrong, would you be surprised?
No, the only thing that would surprise me would be if it goes to decision. This is very much a “pick ‘em” fight. Jones has the look of someone who could dominate for a long time to come, but this is a lot of pressure and a tough battle for someone so young. Shogun is a legend in the sport, but he is going up against someone who is extremely talented and improving with each fight. Each man is capable of finishing the other one in spectacular fashion. It’s why I’m so excited about this fight and why every MMA fan should be too. Saturday night could usher in a new era with a Jones win, or Shogun Rua could set himself up as a dominant champion in a division lacking one since Chuck Liddell lost the belt five years ago. I can’t wait!

Joe's UFC 128 Predictions (That I'm pretty sure are the exact same as my brother's)

UFC 128 goes down this Saturday. My brother posted his picks for the fights earlier today. My picks are basically the exact same except for the finishes. Oh well. I feel a little cocky about picking finishes since I told my brother on the phone days before and in the hours leading up to Anderson Silva's legendary push kick victory of Vitor Belfort that Silva would win within the first three minutes. It took just over three minutes. Hell yeah.

I had been writing my predictions for the UFC 128 main event in my head a little while ago and just read Jimmy's picks and saw he said the same shit I was going to say about Shogun Rua almost. Great minds think alike I guess. Either way, UFC 128 has a monster main event of light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua against Jon "Bones" Jones. They could just chared 45 bucks for that fight and nothing else and I'd be pumped, but there are sadly other fights that must be witnessed. This card is noteworthy because for the first time what I feel like has been a long time I have little knowledge of most of the people involved. I feel like an amateur now. Whatever. Here are the picks:

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (27-8-2) vs. Brendan Schaub (7-1): Mirko Cro Cop used to be death. Pre-UFC Mirko laid all to waste. Every time I hear "Bloodline" by Slayer all I can picture is Mirko kicking people in the head and ending them. Cro Cop always used to say, "Right leg, hospital; left leg; cemetery." Sadly now he's been reduced to a mere mortal doomed to suffer embarassing losses and ruin his legacy, like when Junior Dos Santos kept punching Mirko in the face and Cro Cop quit because he couldn't see. Mirko's fight with Pat Barry was fun but not all that impressive. As my brother stated earlier, Schaub is the type of fighter who would be a dead man walking if he were fighting Cro Cop back in Pride. But instead Schaub looks like he's going to build a name for himself. The only thing I know about Schaub is he got laid out by Roy Nelson in the Ultimate Fighter finale. He's decent but you know something is wrong with the world when he poses a serious threat to the once unstoppable Mirko Cro Cop. I'm calling Schaub by third round knockout.

Dan Miller (13-4) vs. Nate "The Great" Marquardt (30-10-2): I have no idea who Dan Miller is really. Looking at his fights, I've seen him a few times but I don't remember him at all. I do know Nate Marquardt and I know I am not a fan. I was initially excited for this fight because it was to be Marquardt against Yoshihiro Akiyama (or Sexyama as he's known in some circles). I'm a fan of Sexyama and was hoping to see him take out Nate the Great. Instead I'm gonig to watch as Marquardt wins by boring decision.

Jim Miller (19-2) vs. Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2): Much like his brother Dan, I've seen Jim Miller fight a few times and still have no idea who he is. I also have no clue who Kamal Shalorus is. Two guys I've never heard of, fighting right before the co-main event. Needless to say I'm pumped for this fight and can't wait to see a victory for Kamal Shalorus by first round TKO.

Co-Main Event - Urijah Faber (24-4) vs. Eddie Wineland (18-6-1): I'm very excited for this fight since it will be my first time seeing Urijah Faber, the California Kid, going to work. People are saying this move down to 135 is a great move for him. He is a former champ at 145 and is looking to contend at 135 should he win on Saturday. I've never heard of Eddie Wineland. I don't expect him to win. I'm feeling Faber by third round submission.

Main Event - UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (19-4) vs. Jon "Bones" Jones (12-1): I am so excited for this. On one hand you have the most handsome man in all of MMA, Shogun Rua. I'm not even gay and I have a crush on this guy. He is handsome. The man used to be a model before he fought. He's the man. On the other hand you have Jon "Bones" Jones. The man the UFC is clearly hyping as the future of the sport. Jones is young (23), athletic, charismatic, big (6'5" with a UFC record 85" reach and walks around at 220 according to the research I did, otherwise known as reading my brother's picks) and has dismantled everybody he's fought. His only loss came when he devestated Matt Hamill with elbows that were illegal, but he was still crushing Hamill in that fight. Jones has brutal ground and pound. He's the fastest rising star in the business and guaranteed to go down as one of the all time greats. The only problem is he's yet to be truly tested. Jones has looked like a devestating striker and wrestler, but he's been fighting competition that isn't that great. He beat Stephan Bonnar and a man nicknamed The Janitor. Shogun has problems against wrestlers and is coming off a third knee surgery, but we can't forget who we're talking about here.

When the UFC brought Shogun in, he was hyped as the best light heavyweight in the world. Nagging knee injuries kept him from looking like the super killer, but after sealing Chuck Liddell's career up he was given a title shot against Lyoto Machida who was undefeated and is the most elusive fighter in the division. Machida won maybe the most controversial decision in the history of life as Shogun dominated him and picked him apart for five rounds. Rua looked the like the Shogun the UFC had been promising for so long. Then in the rematch he absolutely demolished Machida in the first round. Shogun's striking is legendary. Bones Jones has never faced somebody with such deadly strikes. Shogun is also only 28, which means in theory he's entering his athletic prime. Assuming he's fine after that knee surgery, a healthy Shogun means a deadly Shogun. I guess Shogun has jiu jitsu, and with Bones Jones throwing those elbows like a mad man on the ground that leaves him open to get put in something, but I don't see the fight going that way. People can climb on the Bones Jones train and I know there's a very good chance both my brother and I will look silly for prediciting Shogun to win, but I can't believe it going any other way. As my brother said, Bones Jones has turmoil within his camp and all this hype as well as having just fought six weeks ago to deal with. Shogun hasn't fought since May of last year and had knee surgery so that makes things hard for him as well, but I still think that the fight will be stopped due to a knockout in the second round for the winner (read this part in your best Bruce Buffer voice) and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World...Mauricio SHOGUN Rua!!!!

And that's all I have to say about that. Keep fighting.

Jimbley's UFC 128 Predictions

UFC 128 is this weekend and features a huge main event of Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon "Bones"" Jones for the Light Heavyweight Title.  Overall, it isn't the best card on paper, but it should still be pretty good.  I'm going to run through the main pay per view card and give my predictions in each fight.

Undercard

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic [27-8-2] vs. Brendan Schaub [7-1]: I've already devoted space to how devastating Mirko Cro Cop once was.  Unfortunately and unexplainably, he has dropped off to the point where he is opening this card against a guy who is just above a prospect at this point.  Schaub is an ex-football player turned kickboxer whose two biggest fights were a brutal knockout loss to Roy Nelson and a decision win against Gabriel Gonzaga.  In Pride five years ago, a man of Schaub's caliber and style would be dead within five minutes against Mirko.  Now, he is a solid favorite in the betting lines.  Cro Cop claims to be in the best shape of his life and prepared to make one last run.  He says this every time.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me four times shame on everyone who has seen you in Pride.  As much as I want a Cro Cop KO, it is going to be Schaub by decision.

Dan Miller [13-4] vs. Nate Marquardt [30-10-2]: Miller is a late replacement for Yoshihiro Akiyama, who dropped out to tend to family in Japan.  Miller is a tough and scrappy guy, but Nate has been a top contender for the MW title for the past year or two, with losses to Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami keeping him from rematching Anderson Silva.  I like Miller and he's no slouch, he just isn't in Marquardt's class.  His biggest win is against Joe Doerksen.  I would very much like to see Miller win, but I'm going to go with Marquardt by decision.

Jim Miller [19-2] vs. Kamal Shalorus [7-0-2]: Jim Miller, brother of the aforementioned Dan, is a borderline contender in the crowded lightweight division.  Shalorus is a transfer from the WEC fighting his first match under the UFC banner.  Miller is a veteran whose only two losses are to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the top two fighters in the division.  This should be a decent scrap and Shalorus has a decent chance at an upset, but I think it will be Miller by decision.

Co-Main Event

Urijah Faber [24-4] vs. Eddie Wineland [18-6-1]: This is Faber's UFC debut, after being the face of the WEC for years.  This is his second fight at 135 lbs after being the 145 lb. champ and top contender for a long time.  Wineland is a former champ at 135 lb. champ and is very much a game opponent.  In the striking, Wineland has a slight advantage standing, but on the ground Faber is much better.  This should be fight of the night, as Faber is always exciting and relentless, even in defeat (ex. the Mike Brown fight where he broke both his hands and the Jose Aldo fight where Aldo absolutely destroyed Faber's leg).  He has more tools in his arsenal than Wineland at his disposal and a win for him would put him in line to fight the champ, Dominick Cruz in a highly anticipated match pitting Cruz against the only man to ever defeat him.  Going to go with Faber by second round submission.

Main Event

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua [19-4] vs. Jon Jones [12-1]: I'm so pumped for this fight, I can hardly stand it.  Jones is very much the future of the sport.  He's a dynamic striker with a relentless ground and pound and wrestling game.  He has proven thus far to be unstoppable and based on his youth (23 years old) and size (6'5" and naturally about 220 lbs with a UFC record 85" reach), could eventually end up as the most dominant heavyweight in MMA history, as well as the dominant light heavyweight of the next few years.  Shogun should be in his athletic prime (28 years old), but is coming off his third knee surgery in five years and a nearly one year layoff after a devastating knockout win over previously undefeated champ Lyoto Machida.  Betting lines have Jones as a slight favorite with the odds slowly tipping more in his favor as we get closer to the fight.  I don't think this is fair, as this is really an anything goes type fight.  Shogun's weakness is wrestling, which is Jones's forte.  Jones has never fought a devastating striker like Shogun, as his fights have been against mostly slower and older wrestlers.  This could be negated by Shogun's recovery from surgery.  Jones has also never fought a solid BJJ guy like Shogun, but on the flip side who knows how good Shogun's jiu jitsu is since he has only submitted Kevin Randleman in his career?  Tying in with Jones never facing a striker like Shogun is the fact that Shogun has faced larger fighters before, beating current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ Alistair Overeem twice decisively and Overeem is the same height as Jones, but bulkier.  I don't think anyone has mentioned this really when describing Jones's smothering top game, but while he is content to level his opponents from the open guard he does tend to leave his arms dangling out there for his opponent while he postures up.  This is dangerous against anyone with a jiu jitsu knowledge.  I could go on about this fight for a whole entry, as I think it is fascinating, but I'll get down to it and maybe write something about this whole thing later.  I see this fight going one of two ways:  either a Jones second or third round TKO by ground strikes, or Shogun via 2nd round KO or 3rd round submission.  I think Jones is getting caught up in a lot of hype right now between the media and his own camp that could distract him, plus he just fought five or six weeks ago.  Even though it was an easy win, it isn't easy to train again for a new opponent and peak again.  I'm going to take the underdog and say Shogun Rua by 3rd Round submission.

There you have it.  I don't know if my brother will post his picks, but I think I'm going to write another piece later about the Jones and Shogun fight and all the interesting storylines going into it.

Odds and Sods

Didn't really have any particular topic to discuss today, but there are a bunch of little stories I felt like going over.

• This topic has already been gone over extensively by the mainstream media and on this page, but allegedly the Miami Heat had players crying after their loss to the Bulls over the weekend.  I don't necessarily think its a sign of them being weak, but to cry after a losing streak in March is a bit weak.  If anyone on that team should be crying it should be Coach Spoelstra and Dwyane Wade.  Spo because he's going to get fired after this season when the losses aren't his fault.  Dwyane Wade because he has become the odd man out on his own team.  LeBron needs to stop shooting so much in the fourth quarter, as he becomes a stagnant jump shooter or lofts challenged layups that have little chance of going in.  Get Wade, a proven closer, the ball more in the clutch and there won't be so many choke jobs.  Also, perhaps implementing the Triangle/Motion offense would greatly help them, that and an offseason of learning to work off the ball.  Also, don't hold a championship celebration before the season starts and perhaps the media and fans won't revel in your failures.
• Dan Henderson justified my ranking him as the ninth best MMA fighter of all-time by winning the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Title this past Saturday.  He probably couldn't contend for that same title in the UFC, but he is still relevant at the age of 40 and has a nuclear missile of a right hand.  I think the UFC missed the boat by not keeping him around, as he can still fight and win against a high level of competition.  Anderson Silva would still eat him for lunch, but he is still probably capable of winning a round against him like he did in their first fight.
• I don't know how ESPN's John Hollinger develops his metric statistics, but his playoff odds now features the Chicago Bulls as the team most likely to make it to and win the NBA Finals.  Hollinger has not expressed much in the way of praise of the Bulls, so this came as quite a shock to me.  I don't want to talk too much about it, since I'm a die-hard Bulls fan and I fear jinxing them, but it is about time the Bulls get some respect from ESPN.  They are the only team to beat all the Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks, Celtics, Magic, and Heat.  They have managed to do this with Noah and Boozer both missing significant chunks of the season and without a decent starting shooting guard.  I'm not certain of their championship chances, but that team has believed in themselves from day one and have had great chemistry and it is nice to see that paying off.
• ,UFC 128 is coming up next week, and I believe that both my brother and I will have our predictions up for that.  The main event is Jon "Bones" Jones against UFC Light Heavyweight Champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.  Jones has been very vocal in his confidence by saying things like, "In my mind I've already won."  Nothing major, but over the past year it seems as if Jones has started to buy into his hype as the future of MMA.  Shogun is coming into this fight after knee surgery and a lengthy layoff (nearly a year).  This, and the aforementioned hype contribute to the fact Jones is a slight favorite heading into their fight.  But it seems to me that Jones and a lot of fans are forgetting that Shogun Rua is a bad, bad man.  Jones has never faced a man with the power and striking abilities of Shogun.  Also, Shogun is no slouch off his back either and at age 28, should be in his athletic prime.  While Jones is inexperienced with someone of Rua's style, Shogun has fought and defeated a wide range of people, from strong wrestlers like Mark Coleman to another skilled striker and grappler with a huge size advantage in Alistair Overeem, and was the first man to figure out how to beat Lyoto Machida.  While Jones is favored and rightly so, I just think that people are overlooking just how good Shogun Rua is.

That's it for now.  I do have some other articles coming up in the future, like how to fix the NBA salary cap and about Rashad Evans and his refusal to fight people he trains with.  In the meantime, feel free to leave a comment or something.

The Memory Remains...

"Today is the happiest day of my life."

With those words, Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic capped off a four fight (two in one night) streak that brought him the 2006 Pride Open Weight Grand Prix title.  Unknown at the time was that not only would his remarkable performance in the tournament mark the best stretch of fighting in his entire career, it would also be his only championship victory.

Before Gabriel Gonzaga head kicked him into his decline and Frank Mir managed to defeat him in the stand-up in a disappointing UFC 119 performance, Mirko Cro Cop was considered the most feared striker in all of MMA.  Cro Cop came into MMA with a legitimate K-1 kickboxing background and showed it with his deadly striking, particularly his brutal head kicks.  So feared were those kicks that Mirko himself would describe them as "right kick hospital, left kick morgue."

Cro Cop came into the 2006 Pride Open Weight Grand Prix at a bit of a crossroads.  He entered the tournament with losses in two of his last three fights, a unanimous decision loss to Pride Heavyweight Champion Fedor Emelianenko in August 2005 and a split decision loss to Mark Hunt that December.  After a five month break to regroup, Cro Cop entered Pride: Total Elimination Absolute on May 5, 2006.

His "opponent" was the legendary Japanese fighter Ikuhisa Minowa.  Opponent is a term used loosely, as Cro Cop decimated him in 70 seconds in the evening's main event.  In his post-fight interview, Mirko thanked the fans and issued a quote that should have struck fear into the hearts of the rest of the competitors in the Grand Prix: "I hope you enjoy the event.  More importantly, Cro Cop is back."

Gone was the Cro Cop that was rendered ineffective against Fedor and disappointed against Hunt.  The man to show up for this tournament was hungry and focused like never before or ever again.  For current fans accustomed to the Cro Cop that refused to pull the trigger on the undersized Anthony Perosh at UFC 110 and seemed willing to be Junior Dos Santos' punching bag at UFC 103, the way he dismantled the rest of his competition in the tournament is frightening.

His next opponent was famed judoka and Pride's biggest draw, Hidehiko Yoshida.  This was looked at as a challenging fight due to Yoshida's slick ground game and the fact he had never before been stopped in any of his prior fights, which included two tangles with Pride Middleweight Champion Wanderlei Silva.  While the Yoshida-Cro Cop fight wasn't as short as the Minowa match, it was no less brutal.  Over the course of seven and a half minutes, Cro Cop unloaded savage leg kicks  that fractured Yoshida's right leg and forced him to forfeit after he could no longer stand.

The Yoshida victory put Cro Cop in the final four of the Grand Prix with American wrestler Josh Barnett, former Pride Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and the aforementioned Wanderlei Silva.  The semifinal and final matches were held on September 10, 2006, his 32nd birthday, at Pride: Final Conflict Absolute.

Up first was Wanderlei Silva.  For years, these two had been two of the most popular fighters in Pride and fans were salivating over the prospects of a battle between them.  Silva entered the tournament after Fedor had to withdraw due to injury and in his match against Kazuyuki Fujita, Wanderlei became the first person to ever knock out the renowned "Iron Head."  A natural middleweight (205 lbs.), Silva actually came into this fight four pounds heavier than Cro Cop at 225 lbs.  This would mark the second time they squared off, with the first being a 2002 draw fought under K-1 rules.  The rematch would be much more decisive.

From the onset, the difference between the striking styles of both men was apparent.  Silva waded in aggressively, throwing wild, looping bombs that Cro Cop easily avoided.  Mirko on the other hand was much more efficient, pummeling Silva with punches and kicks.  Early in the fight he landed two kicks to Wanderlei's body that instantly turned "The Axe Murderer's" torso purple.  After a punch that closed up Silva's eye, the referees considered ending the fight.  As Silva protested, a quick glance at Cro Cop's face revealed a man who looked like he was about to destroy anything set in front of him.  After the referees decided to allow the fight to continue, Cro Cop annihilated Silva with a vicious left head kick that will be shown on highlight reels forever.

After the five and a half minutes of brutality unleashed on Wanderlei, Cro Cop had one opponent left: former UFC Heavyweight Champion Josh Barnett.  Barnett came into the finals with a split decision win over Nogueira that night and prior submission victories over Aleksander Emelianenko and Mark Hunt in the first two rounds of the tournament.  The meeting between Cro Cop and Barnett on this night would be their third meeting, with Mirko winning the first by injury stoppage and the second by unanimous decision.

Like their first battle and every Cro Cop fight in the Grand Prix, this would end in the first round.  Mirko continued his striking onslaught and by stuffing Barnett's takedowns, nullified the main strength of "the Baby Faced Assassin."  After having his face battered for five minuts and thirty two seconds, Barnett submitted after a Cro Cop punch to the eye that rendered him useless.  With the stoppage, Mirko Cro Cop became the winner of the 2006 Pride Open Weight Grand Prix.

After the tournament victory, Cro Cop was uncharacteristically emotional.  Prior to thies display, fans had only seen a stoic man who went about his business in the ring quietly and efficiently.  During his post-fight interview, he gave a tearful thank you to his team and dedicated his victory to his father.  He also revealed that before the tournament began, he had mad a vow to retired if he lost any of the fights.

In retrospect, perhaps he should have considered retiring after winning the Grand Prix and Cro Cop has subsequently admitted as such.  Since leaving Pride in 2006, Mirko's career has been a mixed bag.  The predatory instinct and crisp striking that won him the Grand Prix have not been evident in his fights in the UFC.  Newer fans who have seen him fight in the last half-decade have heard tales about how devastating Mirko Cro Cop can be, but have never actually witnessed it.  Anyone who wants to see how truly dominant Mirko Cro Cop could be just has to go back to that five month span of May through September 2006 and witness his brutal run through the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix.