Showing posts with label ufc on fox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ufc on fox. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

UFC on Fox Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?

Last Saturday was the network television debut of the UFC in the cleverly titled “UFC on Fox.” In the main event, Junior Dos Santos won the Heavyweight Title by crushing Cain Velasquez with a hook and some ground and pound in a total of 64 seconds. On the undercard, Benson Henderson became the number one contender to Frankie Edgar’s Lightweight Title by defeating Clay Guida in a wild three round decision that was only seen by UFC fans loyal enough to seek it out on facebook.

That was the first problem with the telecast. I know that Dana White and the people who made the decision to air only one fight did not expect the main event to end so quickly, but Henderson-Guida was a virtual guarantee to be a fight of the year, much less the night, candidate. It turned out to be one of the best fights of the year and featured striking, grappling, and submissions. In short, it was the type of fight that shows the “mixed” aspect of mixed martial arts and would have provided a great introduction to casual/new watchers of the UFC.

The next problem was the use of Dana White as an analyst. I get that Dana is the most visible face and name for the company and loves the sport, but he is a promoter first and invested too much emotionally in the product to provide analysis. His breakdown of the Dos Santos-Velasquez fight was brutal and he ended up burying both men and making them look bad. He absolutely ripped apart Cain’s gameplan and took him to task for not rushing in for takedowns right away and grappling with Dos Santos. The fact is that that doesn’t work as a strategy, just look at when Velasquez chumped Lesnar last year when Brock basically tried that. Also, the fight was only 64 seconds long and Velasquez was using leg kicks to try to set up a takedown. You can’t just takedown someone of Dos Santos’ skillset in the first ten seconds of a fight. His defense is too good and you’ll eat an uppercut for trying to close the distance too poorly. The fact of the matter was that Cain just got caught. Junior threw a great lead jab to the chin and followed it up with a right hook over the top that caught him right around the ear. It wasn’t even something that Cain did wrong; it was just a great offensive boxing combination from Junior. A quick knockout like that doesn’t happen often and I would imagine that if the two were to fight ten more times, that wouldn’t happen again. Dana was upset that the company had invested a lot of time and money pushing Cain into the forefront of the Latino market in hopes of new gains. It was clearly intended to be Velasquez’s coming out party as a star and it ended poorly and in devastating fashion and Dana reacted poorly to it.

Just as bad as that was when he began to discredit Dos Santos. When saying Cain should have went for takedowns, he started ranting about how Junior is known to gas out in the late rounds and that Cain was stupid for not exploiting that. He said this at least twice in a minute and a half. Essentially Dana just said his previous champion was an idiot who lost to an inferior fighter. He completely no sold the fact that Junior is now 8-0 in the UFC and finished the previously undefeated Velasquez. He should have pushed this as “Holy Jesus, just look at how fantastic Junior Dos Santos’ boxing is. He managed to stop a guy that has never lost, much less been finished. He managed to keep Cain from closing the distance for a takedown and absolutely leveled him.” I imagine when he goes back and watches the replay of his analysis, Dana will be disappointed in himself for being too emotionally invested into his promotion of Cain for not adequately promoting Junior’s win, especially coming on the news that ten million of Dos Santos’ native Brazilians saw the fight live. Promotion in Brazil is the next big thing for Zuffa, so what better than a third Brazilian champion?

With that out of the way, let’s get a bit into what happens next for everyone involved in the main and co-main.

Clay Guida: Guida put on an exciting, spirited performance in a losing effort. I don’t know if he’ll get any closer than this to a title shot, but he has nothing to be ashamed of. He lost a close, but clear cut decision because Henderson is just a little better than him at everything and is evidently impervious to takedowns. Guida should get a fight with another top guy, perhaps with Jim Miller or Dennis Siver. Both those guys were close to title shots and a win for one them gets that person one or two fights away from contention. I was going to suggest Gray Maynard, but I think that he would beat Guida pretty decisively and that would push Clay out of the title picture and put Maynard in the “Jon Fitch” zone.

Benson Henderson: Ben Smooth looked outstanding in his takedown defense and ability to get out of submissions. He also displayed a fierce heart and some great offense. He has a date with Frankie Edgar on February 26, when the UFC goes to Japan (!!!). That fight should be absolutely insane and I would expect it to be the best one of the year. Both men have cardio for days and cut a wicked pace. Bendo has takedown defense on par with BJ Penn at his peak, as well as improving stand up that will be tested by Edgar’s solid boxing and wrestling abilities. I cannot wait for this fight.

Cain Velasquez: Not really too much to say about Cain’s performance, as it was such a short fight that one cannot really analyze it too much. I liked the way he was using leg kicks to wear Junior down to set up a takedown later, but (as insightful commentary from ESPN’s Bret Okamoto pointed out) he played Junior’s hands a little. He did this by not moving enough and instead providing a hittable target. A minute of fighting was not enough to get a takedown against someone of Junior’s status, but the leg kicks (I think) would have been effective in the long run if he hadn’t been caught. The thirteen month layoff following rotator cuff surgery couldn’t have helped either, as he came in a little heavier than usual. I imagine he’ll trim down a bit once he gets back into fighting regularly. As for his next opponent, I imagine it will be the loser of Lesnar/Overeem (esp. if its Reem), followed by the winner of Frank Mir/Minotauro Nogueira (esp. if its Mir). I think he beats both of those guys and ends up in a title fight by the end of next year/early 2013. He’s too good to just fall to the wayside and I don’t really see any heavyweight besides Dos Santos (and maybe Overeem if he gets hit and can’t get a takedown) really giving him trouble.

Junior Dos Santos: Junior looked amazing in this fight, especially considering that he tore his meniscus a week and a half before the fight. He threw an excellent left jab-overhand right hook to drop Cain and smartly followed it up immediately to get the finish. His next opponent is the winner of Lesnar/Overeem. If its Lesnar, I imagine it going the same way Junior’s fights with Carwin and Velasquez went. I don’t think Brock can get Junior to the mat easily, especially with such poor striking to set up a takedown. Lesnar also doesn’t respond well to getting hit and the case can be made no one at heavyweight is better at hitting people than Junior Dos Santos. If its Overeem, I think Junior has a tougher time because the Reem is such an excellent kickboxer. But Overeem has been knocked out by Chuck Liddell and Shogun Rua in the past, so someone of Junior’s power can finish him. Either way, it is the fight I would like to see and I think it would be pretty sick.

That’s it for this piece. Stay tuned over the next few days for some articles about Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua, and predictions for UFC 139.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

UFC on Fox 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos Preview

This Saturday, November 12 marks a momentous occasion for MMA - the UFC’s debut on network television with the UFC on Fox. Prior to this event CBS had played host to cards from the now defunct Elite XC and the nearly defunct Strikeforce, but this event will be the first time that the world’s premier MMA promotion airs live fights on network television. Curiously, the powers that be at Zuffa and Fox are only going to air one fight, but its a doozy of one: UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will be facing top contender Junior Dos Santos.

I discussed this a few months ago, so I’ll only touch upon it now. It is a bit disappointing that only one fight will be aired, especially with what is sure to be an excellent lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Benson Henderson on the undercard, but if only one fight will be aired this was the best one to show. Whether right or wrong, heavyweight championships are considered the pinnacle of combat sports. The common perception is that the heavyweight champion is the biggest and baddest man in the world. With the fight lined up between Velasquez and Dos Santos, that perception could be correct.

Both men are gifted fighters with skill sets that should make for an exciting fight. Cain is an unstoppable wrestler and cardio machine, while Junior has the best offensive boxing in the division. Since only one fight is going to be shown, rather than run through the whole card (which can be viewed on facebook or fox.com) I’m going to break this fight down in excruciating detail.

Stand-up: As stated before, Junior has the best offensive boxing in the heavyweight division. He has used it to devastating effect, finishing fighters such as Fabrico Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gabriel Gonzaga and battering Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin into pulps. Cain is a solid boxer as well, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and battering Brock Lesnar en route to winning the title. Neither man is known to really employ kicks, so the standing portion of this battle will pretty much be MMA style boxing. Junior’s defensive boxing is probably not as good as Cain’s. I really like Cain’s footwork, head movement, and hands when he is defending strikes. Junior is more likely to keep his hands a little lower, but he does have good footwork. The hand placement shouldn’t be a problem in this fight as Cain does not really have one punch knockout power and in general throws his hands with less force than Junior. Cain has a good chin, but he was dropped twice by Cheick Kongo when they fought and Junior hits a lot harder than Kongo. Junior has also shown a great killer instinct with his boxing - if he has you hurt, he will finish you. Cain uses his striking to set up takedowns (more on that later). The longer this fight stays standing, the more if would have to work in Junior’s favor. Advantage Dos Santos.

Takedowns and Takedown Defense:
Cain is a wrestling machine and former NCAA All-American wrestler. Wrestling is his base and the source of his success. He has shown unstoppable takedowns - every one of his opponents has ended up on their back at some point. Junior is no slouch in the wrestling department either, showing he too can take opponents down when he repeatedly put Shane Carwin on his back during their June fight. While he is competent in this department, his bread and butter is standing. Both men have also shown excellent takedown defense. Cain stuffed Lesnar’s takedowns in their fight and Junior avoided Shane Carwin’s takedown attempts. Junior has never faced someone with the relentless takedown ability of Cain Velasquez. If Junior manages to avoid getting taken down by Cain, he’ll be the first. Advantage: Velasquez

Ground Game:
Cain’s ground game is pretty well known and established at this point. Once he takes his opponent down, he will rain fists nonstop for however long it takes to end a fight. He doesn’t get tired, he doesn’t slow down. He is absolutely relentless in doling out punishment from top control. He also showed an ability to get out of harm’s way by quickly getting out of Brock Lesnar’s way when Lesnar got him to the ground in the very early going of their fight. Junior’s ground game is a bit of a question mark. He is said to have jiu jitsu skills, but he has yet to show them (or really need to for that matter). He has decent ground and pound skills, but nowhere on the level of Cain’s. In this case, one has to go with the proven commodity in this department and Cain’s ground offense is brutal and nonstop. Advantage: Velasquez

Tangibles/Intangibles:
First thing is a tangible and that is cardio. Both men have shown excellent cardio and will keep coming forward and work their offense. Velasquez is a horse though, that guy doesn’t even breathe, much less breathe heavily. Dos Santos has decent cardio but I distinctly remember him tiring while using Roy Nelson as a punching bag last year. He hasn’t had to face someone who can and does keep pushing the pace the way Cain does. While I wouldn’t expect Junior to gas out, cardio is Cain’s advantage. The next thing would be health. Cain is coming off a thirteen month lay-off following surgery and rehabilitation to repair a torn rotator cuff. The combination of ring rust and injury recovery (mental and physical) can have an unknown effect on a fighter. It could very well limit his boxing and wrestling abilities. Junior, on the other hand, has been healthy and waiting for this fight for a while. This has to be an advantage for Dos Santos. In terms of strength of competition, I would give the edge to Junior in terms of number of names. He has fought and beaten Werdum, Cro Cop, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Carwin. The last two wins were decisions and the Cro Cop one was a weird one where Mirko just kind of gave up in the third round. Velasquez has beaten Kongo, Rothwell, Nogueira, and Lesnar. I would give the quality of his wins a higher grade, as he only went to decision once and that was with Kongo. The others were all finished by the end of the second round. Overall Advantage in tangibles/intangibles: Push.
Now comes the hard part, the prediction. I think that it is a pretty evenly matched bout. I see this fight going one of two ways: a 2nd round TKO win for Junior or a 4th round TKO for Cain. It’s tough; I keep waffling on my pick. A win for either man wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I get the feeling that in what should be one of the greatest heavyweight fights in UFC history, Junior Dos Santos is going to finish Cain Velasquez and become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion. Don’t quote me on it however, unless I’m right of course.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Chael Sonnen doesn't deserve a title shot, UFC on Fox, and Overeem!

Due to the severe lack of a basketball season, the bulk of the articles I’m writing are MMA related. I’m thinking of popping out with a pro wrestling story soon just to break the monotony of MMA articles, but we’ll see. If you are looking for something different, please feel free to peruse my other blog entitled Price Vincent, which is a constant ode to testosterone.

Speaking of testosterone, that brings me to Chael Sonnen. In the wake of Anderson Silva’s destruction of Yushin Okami, there has been a renewed call for Silva to face Sonnen, the person who has come closest to defeating him. This is a terrible idea for multiple reasons. 1.) Sonnen lost decisively by tapping out, 2.) Although he was winning the fight decisively, he ended up with more damage inflicted upon himself than upon Silva, 3.) He was dominating due to the fact that he was using testosterone illegally and Silva fought with a severe rib injury, which leads to 4.) Giving him a rematch right away or after his next fight only rewards someone who was caught cheating in the recent past. Seriously, I know there are a serious lack of challengers for Anderson Silva at this point, but Sonnen should have to win at least two fights before being given another shot at a title. And there’s only one real fight to book Silva in that matters: a catchweight bout against Georges St. Pierre. That would put the two best and most dominant fighters in the world against each other in a match most fans want to see, plus it could set up for at least one rematch depending on the fight’s outcome. If that fight isn’t possible, Dan Henderson is available and he is far more deserving of another shot at UFC gold than Sonnen, who could have created quite the PR problem last year if he had won the belt while juicing. That’s something Dana White has forgotten about when defending Chael, but I digress.

In other, more positive news the UFC announced the main event for its network TV debut on Fox November 12th: a UFC Heavyweight Title match between Cain Velasquez and the challenger Junior dos Santos. Oddly enough, this is the only fight that will be aired on the one hour program. I personally would have added a lightweight fight between Clay Guida and Ben Henderson that would 100% guaranteed been a match of the year candidate to open the show, but a title fight on free TV is a big deal. I think that the UFC went the right way in picking this as the fight to go with, as opposed to an Anderson Silva title match or the rumored Tito Ortiz-Rich Franklin fight. Silva, while absolutely brilliant, is mercurial and there is no guarantee that he’ll deliver a positive memorable opponent. Plus, there is some serious question as to how much name recognition he actually has in the US. Now Tito Ortiz has name recognition, but he is way past his prime. Same for Rich Franklin. While both are names and I would consider myself to be a fan of both men, there is a good chance that this could be a bland encounter and you don’t want to showcase two guys who are a bit over the hill in your network TV debut. A lot of people will be tuning in to see a UFC fight for the first time, and a good impression needs to be made. That is why this fight makes sense. Nothing draws people in like a heavyweight fight. Historically in boxing,heavyweights have been the most popular (Louis, Ali, Tyson, Holyfield) and a heavyweight title holds a common perception of being the accolade that shows who the biggest, baddest man is. While there is always the risk that a heavyweight scrap can be a dull, plodding affair, that most likely won’t be the case here as Velasquez-dos Santos is going to be great, great enough that it would be worth buying on a pay per view card. Velasquez is a machine, just absolutely relentless and efficient in his striking, takedowns, and ground and pound. As an added bonus, he never tires out. Junior dos Santos is the best technical striker in the heavyweight division and will test Cain’s chin like no one has yet, plus this fight could be where dos Santos is finally forced to use the jiu jitsu skills we hear he has. This really is the best fight the UFC can go with on this card and its great for fans to get a title fight without having to pay $45.00.

While on the subject of heavyweights, the UFC has been negotiating with Alistair Overeem and rumor has it the Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ could be making his debut inside the octagon as soon as the end of the year against Frank Mir or a returning Brock Lesnar. As a fan of the ‘Reem, this excites me. I’ve gushed about him far too often, but his inclusion into the UFC would greatly bolster its sagging heavyweight ranks. After Cain and dos Santos, the top of the division is pretty thin. Mir is near the top and can main event, but he has not looked impressive as of late and wouldn’t really stand a chance against either of the UFC’s top two heavyweights. Brendan Schaub was exposed as a very green prospect, Cheick Kongo would get murdered again by Cain or for the first time by Junior, and Matt Mitrione is a prospect. Shane Carwin has lost two in a row and is really out of contention, and as much as I love Minotauro Nogueira, he isn’t really a threat to capture the title again. Bringing in Overeem creates a Champion vs. Champion fight, plus Alistair is very marketable. He’s built like Thor and can beat the hell out of people. Since the rest of the Strikeforce heavyweights aren’t joining the UFC anytime soon, the addition of Overeem would be a major plus and would greatly bolster the main event scene - especially when 2011 was marked by a severe depletion of credible main eventers due to injuries and the ‘Reem is known for wanting to fight several times a year. More on this if he actually does join the UFC.

That about does it this time, hopefully I’ll put something up again soon. Feel free to comment here or on facebook.