UFC 140 Predictions

It’s that time again. UFC 140 is this weekend and it features a huge main event, as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones makes his second defense in the past three months and fights for the fourth time this year as he takes on former champ Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Also in action are the Nogueira twins, as Big Nog faces Frank Mir in a rematch of his first ever knockout defeat in 2008 and Little Nog faces off against the former “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” and current self-proclaimed “People’s Champ” Tito Ortiz. All in all, it should make for an interesting night of fights.

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung: This featherweight bout features recent contender Hominick against the solid “Korean Zombie.” Hominick is recovered from his April decision loss to Jose Aldo that saw a hematoma the size of a football grow on his forehead. Jung is coming off a March win against Leonard Garcia that saw him use the rarely seen twister submission to get the victory. This should be a pretty good fight, as Hominick has very good boxing and Jung is known for his ability to absorb punishment and deliver it back out. This has the potential to be fight of the night. If it stays standing, I think Hominick can pick him apart or potentially finish him, but if it goes to the ground Jung has superior grappling abilities. I’ll probably cheer for Jung, as he has a sick nickname and t-shirt to go with it. I tend to think that Hominick’s superior striking should be enough to thwart any takedown or submission attempts. Hominick by decision.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira vs. Tito Ortiz: This fight pits two legends in the PRIDE vet Nogueira and the UFC icon Ortiz. At this point in their careers both men have seen better days, with Ortiz winning once in the past five years and Nogueira looking pretty poor in compiling a 2-2 record in the UFC. Ortiz has the most recent win between them after submitting Ryan Bader this past May in a massive upset, while Nogueira hasn’t won since a controversial split decision win over Jason Brilz in May 2010. What this will come down to is two things: cardio and takedowns. Nogueira’s takedown defense has been shaky at best in his UFC stint. Both of his losses and even the win against Brilz came against wrestlers who were able to get him down and keep him there for long periods of time. After the years of injuries, Ortiz’s legendary takedown abilities have faded and he couldn’t even get Matt Hamill to the ground last year. Tying into this is cardio. If Tito gets Nogueira down early in the fight, he can wear away on Little Nog and tire him out. If Little Nog can avoid the early takedown and keep it standing, Ortiz has shown a tendency lately to tire by the early second round. If that happens, Little Nog can outstrike Tito easily. This is really a toss up to me and I can see it going either way. Tito’s takedown abilities have declined over the years, but to be fair he was injured a lot of that time. He is fully healthy now, but he has been discussing retirement openly in the past week or so. I tend to think that is an arbiter of his motivation going into the fight. While I don’t think Little Nog has much left to offer besides matches like this and some other PRIDE rematches, it appears that he is healthy and still wants to fight. Desire goes a long way, so let’s say Nogueira by decision.

Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira vs. Frank Mir: Nogueira managed to stave off retirement with an emotional knockout win over Brendan Schaub at UFC Rio in his first fight in his home country. Prior to that, he was on the shelf for a year and a half after multiple surgeries following (but not related to) his loss to Cain Velasquez. Mir is coming off a decision win against Roy Nelson back in May in what was truly an insipid fight and that came right months after a knockout win in a wretched fight against the shell of Mirko Cro Cop. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight for the interim heavyweight belt that saw Mir shock everyone with a second round KO of Big Nog. It was Nogueira’s first loss by finish ever and first in nearly a decade to someone other than Fedor. It has since been revealed that Nogueira came into the fight with a staph infection and Minotauro apologists have pointed to that as the reason for the loss. To be fair to both men it played a part in his stamina and conditioning, but Nogueira’s chin looked vulnerable in his earlier UFC battles against Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. In the Schaub fight, he managed to eat some big shots but Mir is a much better technical boxer than Schaub and he won’t wilt when Nogueira punches back. Mir hasn’t looked that great lately and does gas by the the third round, so Nogueira has that in his favor. I would like to see it get to the ground to see if Mir’s jiu jitsu is comparable at all to Nogueira’s prodigious abilities in that department. I think for Nogueira to win there are two things that he needs to happen. First, he needs to be able to take a punch, since the odds of him KOing Mir are slim so he’ll need to go the distance. Second, he needs Mir to gas early like he did against Roy Nelson. If that happens, Big Nog will win a decision and put retirement off for at least another fight or two. If Mir can keep his stamina for at least the first round and a half, he’ll win a decision and be right on the doorstep for a title shot. It hurts me to say it, but I think Nog’s win over Schaub was a bit of an aberration, a consequence of a younger fighter and the older lion that rose to the occasion in front of his hometown crowd. I’ll be cheering heartily for my favorite heavyweight of all-time in Nogueira to turn the clock back one more time, but it will likely be Mir by second round TKO.

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: This is the fight I’ve wanted to see for Jones for some time. Despite the way fans and pundits are discussing the fight, I think this is easily the most challenging fight in the 205 lb. division for Jones. Despite being 1-2 in his last three fights, Machida is still a masterful striking technician and one of the most elusive fighters to hit the sport has ever seen. And as for his two losses, it is clear that Shogun just has Machida’s number and the loss to Quinton Jackson was a decision that arguably could have gone to Lyoto. I think what makes this a tricky fight for Jones is that not only does Machida do an excellent job at setting the tone for a fight, he has very trip takedowns and grappling skills. What works against Machida is the fact that he is such a patient counterstriker that he doesn’t really pressure an opponent. Also, his best defense is the way he keeps his head and body back when he is standing. This won’t work against Jones’ significant advantage in reach and size. If he keeps back, he won’t be able to make up for the foot of reach Jones has over him. The other problem is that Machida keeps his lead leg open as a target for kicks and Jonny Bones has been known to use those (as seen against Shogun Rua). As for Jones, he won’t be able to get away with some of the silliness he engaged in against Shogun and Rampage. He won’t be able to turn his back and run away to avoid strikes since Machida isn’t slow as Hell like Quinton or coming into it crippled like Rua. If he turns like that, Machida will hit him or take him down. Machida is also such a gifted technical striker that if Jones tries some of the more outlandish things in his arsenal that he could pay. I think that Jones is definitely a beatable opponent and the way to do it is to pressure him. Jones likes to be flashy and set the tone for what he wants to do. What someone needs to do is to turn that back against him and put him on his heels and fluster him. The problem is that he has such a huge reach and speed advantage that it is tough to do. For Machida to win, he needs to come out aggressive and use his wide range of strikes to throw Jones off his early rhythm and not let him set up his reach advantage. Otherwise, Bones will just pick him off all night. I want Machida to win very much and think that he is the fighter most capable of beating Jones. He just has to pick up the pace and turn up the pressure. I just don’t know if he will. While I will be solidly in Machida’s corner and think that on some level Jones is overlooking him, I have this feeling that Machida is going to come out too tentative early and allow Jones to establish his range and get into a groove. If that happens, I would expect him to be able to pressure Machida and back him into the fence, where he would be ripe for the picking. Winner by fourth round TKO and still UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones.
As always feel free to share your thoughts as well.

Joe's UFC 140 Predictions

Another big UFC card is upon us! Jon Jones looks to cement his place at the top of the division against Lyoto Machida, Minotauro Nogueira looks to prove the first time Frank Mir beat him was a fluke, and Tito Ortiz is out to show he's still got something left in the tank. The three big fights should be pretty awesome and I'm pretty pumped for the card. Here's how it will go down:

Mark Hominick (20-9) vs. Chan Sung Jung (11-3): Last time we saw Mark Hominick he was had a football-sized lump on his head after a beating handed out in a decision loss to featherweight champ Jose Aldo. Last time we saw “The Korean Zombie” he was avenging his split decision loss to Leonard Garcia by submitting Garcia with a rarely used hold known as the twister. This should be an exciting fight since the little guys always bring it. Both guys have good submissions but Hominick has much better striking. Hominick will also probably be jacked up fighting in front of his hometown Canadian crowd. Most people think Hominick will light Jung up with his striking, however, I still think Jung wins a decision.

Claude Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 1 NC): No idea who these guys are. They both have good submissions and Patrick will probably be pumped up since he’s also Canadian. I’m just going to say Patrick wins by second round submission.

Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5): We’re talking light heavyweights so this is Little Nog we’re talking about here. These are two of the all-time greats. Dana White may try to belittle Ortiz as much as possible, but he is one of the best ever and saved the UFC’s ass earlier this year by fighting Rashad Evans on short notice just so 133 would have a main event. Ortiz was knocked out for the third time in his career there but it should be noted that Ortiz is very tough and has only been finished by Evans and Chuck Liddell. He has shied away from his wrestling ways late in his career and his fights have been lacking in quality, with the exception of his heroic submission win over Ryan Bader in July. This may be Ortiz’s last fight or at least one of his last couple fights. Little Nog has not had a very impressive UFC run and looked like a sparring partner for Phil Davis to practice his wrestling on in his last fight. This fight is either going to be really exciting or horrible. Little Nog’s boxing hasn’t looked particularly impressive or effective and Tito has bad boxing but still tries to stand and bang now. Little Nog has some issues with wrestlers so if Tito goes back to his wrestling he can win, but if Tito keeps it standing Little Nog will pick him apart. I think Ortiz wins a very boring decision.

Frank Mir (15-5) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC): Big Nog had never been knocked out in all of the wars he had been in back in the PRIDE days, but in 2008 faced Frank Mir and got laid clean out. It later came out Minotauro had been in the hospital battling a staph infection just a couple weeks before the fight. After beating Randy Couture then getting laid out again, this time by Cain Velasquez, Nogueira had surgery on both knees and took over a year off to get healthy. At 134 he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round for only his third KO victory. Many thought he was going to get destroyed in that fight and have to retire, but now the future looks bright for Big Nog as he steps into his rematch with Mir. Mir is coming off a murder at the hands of Shane Carwin and two horrible fights he won in totally unimpressive fashion against Mirk Cro Cop and Roy Nelson. Mir thinks he is a stand up master, but he is pretty weak in that department. Big Nog used to be the greatest heavyweight boxer in MMA and if he is healthy he could bust some of that out on Mir. Both are great submission guys, with Nogueira likely having the best jiu jitsu in the history of the sport. Mir doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body like Nogueira so he could be at an advantage but if Nogueira is truly healthy and prepared then he will have Mir beat. I could see Mir finishing Nogueira again, but I think Nogueira wins a decision.

UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (17-2): If Jones wins all of the hype is validated. So far all he’s done is beat an injured Shogun Rua and an over the hill Rampage Jackson. Machida is the toughest matchup Jones has in the division. Machida has great striking, wrestling, and jiu jitsu. His unorthodox karate style makes him an extremely difficult target to hit. Machida wins a lot of decisions because his style is about patience and waiting for you to come at him and make a mistake so he can counter. The only problem here is that Jones is going to have a foot and a half reach advantage, meaning he’ll be harder for Machida to hit than Machida will be for him. If Machida is aggressive like he has been in his last two fights, then he will have a better chance of winning.

For all of the highlight reel moves Jones does, he makes a lot of mistakes and leaves himself open to get attacked. He has yet to face anybody quick or accurate enough to capitalize on those openings, but I think Machida is the one to do it. Shogun was able to take Jones’ back off missed spinning back fists, but he was so tired and injured he couldn’t do anything. Rampage can pack a punch but he is so slow and has given up on wrestling, making him far too easy to pick apart. Machida has a lot of weapons and even undersized I think he has all the tools to stop Jones. This reminds me of Machida’s fight with Rashad Evans. Evans was a new champion, had never lost, had an unorthodox style, and was extremely arrogant. Machida stayed patient to get Evans to come at him then ignited him with a devastating flurry of strikes. Jones is similar to Evans, and I think the fight ends in similar fashion. Just like Rampage Jackson before him, Machida is looking to become the second two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but unlike Rampage I think he pulls it off. I pick Machida by fourth round TKO.

UFC 140 Gets A Main Event And Lyoto Machida Gets An Opponent

Earlier this week, I had been planning to write that the main event of UFC 140 should become Lyoto Machida against Rashad Evans. This was based on the assumption that Jon Jones’ six month medical suspension would hold for at least half that time. Turns out, it is Evans who can’t make the December 10 fight card and now Lyoto Machida will be fighting Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title.

In some ways, this makes the UFC look a little silly. After Jones’ last two fights, Rashad was brought into the Octagon to hype a fight with Jonny Bones. Now for the second straight time, Jones will be fighting a different person. From a promotional standpoint, it makes the UFC look a bit amateur by repeatedly announcing and then changing this fight. Evans has been the clear top contender for over a year now, hence being put in a title match, but the changing of opponents makes title matches seem more entertainment and less merit (ranking system) based.

That being said, it worked out well the prior two times. Replacing Evans with Jones against Shogun Rua helped to usher in a brand new star for the company. Then, after the bickering, setting up Jones vs. Rampage Jackson made for a fight that provided both a credible challenger and increased attention from people due to Jackson’s popularity and name recognition. In this instance, Machida hasn’t fought since crushing Randy Couture in March and hasn’t really been mentioned in the title picture other than “if he wins his next fight or two, he should get a title shot.”

While the UFC has been pushing this Jones and Evans rivalry all year, I believe Machida makes for a better opponent and match. Jones and Evans have similar styles and Jones would be the bigger, stronger, faster opponent. I would expect him to beat Evans decisively. Machida is a much more intriguing challenger. He forces his opponents to fight his way, on his terms. Jones hasn’t faced anyone capable of that. Machida’s style of counter punching and his speed and reflexes could cause some serious problems for Jones. During the Shogun and Rampage fights, Jones left himself exposed for strikes and takedowns. The only problem was that Rua was too injured and Jackson was too slow and one dimensional. Machida has underrated takedowns and can be lightning fast with his strikes. If Jones comes in on him or turns his back during strikes (like he did against Rua AND Jackson), Machida can make him pay.

I think that this is the only fight for Jones that will truly test him. Dan Henderson might have a chance, but I tend to think Jones can rag doll him. Even if he gets healthy and that’s a big if, I don’t know that Shogun can beat Jones’ wrestling skills. While Jones is considered a favorite in the Machida fight and justifiably so, I think its only a slight favorite. I’m biased both against Jones and towards Machida, so it is impossible to objective in this fight. I lean towards Jones 55%-45% in my thinking. I’m sure I’ll get into this more once we get closer to the fight. Regardless, I’m glad this fight is happening and it definitely saves a UFC 140 card that was highlighted by the brothers Nogueira facing Frank Mir and Tito Ortiz. Between this fight and UFC 141’s Lesnar-Overeem tilt, Zuffa has made December a must see month.