Showing posts with label ufc 137. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ufc 137. Show all posts

Thursday, November 3, 2011

UFC 137: Thoughts, Where Do We Go From Here?

Evidently, the title to UFC 137 should have been “Retirement Party.” After all, two of the biggest names in the sport retired after their defeats in Mirko Cro Cop and BJ Penn. The first was a long time coming, while the second was both surprising and obvious once you get past the surface. For the sake of brevity and lack of specifics in regards to the lower weight classes, I’m going to simply talk about the winners and losers of the three biggest fights on the card: Cro Cop/Nelson, Kongo/Mitrione, and Penn/Diaz.

Mirko Cro Cop: A long overdue retirement. As I have made clear in the past, I am a big fan of the heavyweight legend. The first post on this website was dedicated to his run of dominance in the 2006 PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix. When I think of Mirko, I choose to think of that time rather than his dismal stints in the UFC. Injuries and tentative striking really overtook him the last several years, along with the obvious fact that he hasn’t seemed emotionally invested in fighting in years. It’s been like he just fights to have something to do and not out of any real desire. That being said, in this fight he did have some flashes of the old Cro Cop in the second round when he landed a head kick and several left uppercuts to Nelson’s head and body. After that fiery display failed to knock out Nelson, Cro Cop faded and ended up getting finished in the third round for the third straight fight. While his time in the UFC never matched the hype he was granted upon his entry to the company, he should still go down as one of the all-time greats at his weight class and be remembered as one of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.

Roy Nelson: Big Country dropped about twenty pounds and it was evident in this fight. He didn’t gas out early and he wasn’t just a punching bag like he was in his past two fights. He also showed that he has one of the best chins in the division, eating a head kick and several big punches from Cro Cop and powering through them. Overall, he showed solid takedowns and positional control and decent striking. Despite that, he will still never be a contender in the heavyweight division. The top flight heavyweights would smoke him and he just lost to Frank Mir. He is a solid mid-level talent that is a good bellwether opponent to gauge talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched up with the winner of the other heavyweight fight from UFC 137 - Cheick Kongo. They are at about the same level in the division and a win for either man would make them a worthy opponent for the losers in the Velasquez-Dos Santos and Lesnar-Overeem fights.

Matt Mitrione: Meathead disappointed in his opportunity to be considered a legit heavyweight. He was far too tentative in terms of letting his hands go and his complaints about Kongo backpedaling and not engaging could have been solved by pursuing Cheick and throwing some punches. In the third, the smaller Kongo was able to take him down and keep him there with ease. It is definitely something he needs to work on, but at 33 it is unknown whether he can improve enough to make a jump into contention. While the solid Kongo may have been too steep a climb in competition, I think someone like Stefan Struve makes sense. Struve is decent, and above Mitrione on the food chain but not as much as Kongo. While Struve is coming off a win and Mitrione a loss, the UFC may not pair them up. In that case, I would pick Brendan Schaub. Despite Schaub being viewed as a potential contender before Nogueira pummeled him, he is actually pretty equal to Mitrione. It would test Schaub’s chin and Mitrione’s takedown defense, as Schaub is decent in that respect.

Cheick Kongo: Kongo won in solid, unspectacular fashion over Mitrione. His developing takedown game continued to work for him and his striking was as crisp as ever. While I would doubt his abilities to beat the top of the division, he is one or two wins away from getting to fight one of them. Not really much else to say about him, as his abilities and weaknesses are pretty well established at this point. As for a next opponent, I would go with Roy Nelson or Stefan Struve. The heavyweight division needs fighters for when the top sorts itself out and the Strikeforce heavyweights may or may not be moved over. The winner of Kongo and Nelson would have enough name recognition and wins to be placed against one of the losers in the top four. A Kongo-Struve tilt would be a little less relevant, but would make for a hilarious visual in the cage.

BJ Penn: Retirement is next for “The Prodigy,” if his immediate postfight comments are to be believed. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. Since the first Frankie Edgar fight, BJ has looked increasingly unmotivated. He doesn’t want to cut the weight for 155 lbs. and he is too small to last more than a round or two at welterweight. In the first round against Diaz, Penn put on a boxing clinic and battered Nick. His suspect endurance left him after that while he received an onslaught of offense. He rallied a little in the third and the fact that he made it through the fight, much less still throwing punches at the end is commendable. Even going out on a loss in this fight, there is nothing to be ashamed of. He was a competitive participant in one of the most memorable fights of the year against a top title contender. I don’t want to yammer on and on about his retirement and how it makes sense in this space, so I’ll continue it in a separate post later.

Nick Diaz: Diaz showed that the criticism of him as overrated was unfair, as he battered BJ Penn like no one before. He then got himself an opponent for Super Bowl weekend by calling out Georges St. Pierre, accusing him of being a coward and scared to face him. Regardless of the validity of this statement, it wasn’t mere showmanship on a Chael Sonnen level. Diaz truly believes that GSP is afraid to face him. He sticks to that claim, even though GSP pulled out of a fight with Carlos Condit and it was Diaz who blew his title shot originally by shirking his promotional responsibilities. At the very least, Diaz’s mean mugging and trash talk has seemingly lit a fire under GSP for the first time in a long time. I don’t think Diaz can beat GSP; he lacks the takedown defense to thwart St. Pierre’s primary weapon and he is content on his back. I do think that he can motivate Georges in a way that no one since BJ Penn has to dole out a beating. I don’t want to get into details about how I see the GSP-Diaz fight playing out until we get to that show, so instead let’s compliment Nick on his star making performance against Penn. In his first run in the UFC, Diaz was part of great fights with Robbie Lawler and Diego Sanchez, but was never really close to a title shot. Since leaving the UFC and going to Strikeforce, he has been on an absolute tear and his win over Penn is the best of his career. His striking and pace were absolutely relentless and thrilling to see and when combined with his absurd postfight interview, he has the potential to be quite the draw in the future. He is now a sellable, viable, and believable opponent for GSP and that is something there hasn’t been in some time.

That’s it for this installment. I’ll try to get some other things up on here soon.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

UFC 137 Predictions

It’s been a busy October for Zuffa, with UFC 137 coming up now. It is the third pay per view and in five weeks and the fifth card in six weeks. I had originally written up a whole batch of predictions and thoughts on the original main event of Georges St. Pierre defending the UFC Welterweight Title against Carlos Condit, but that was cancelled when GSP pulled out with a knee injury on ten days notice. Since the injury is minor enough that this fight can happen in the next few months, Condit was pulled completely from the card. Otherwise, I’m sure he would be fighting Josh Koscheck. The new main event is now BJ Penn against Nick Diaz, a fight I was anticipating more anyways. The co-main is a heavyweight scrap between Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo, which should be...something. Let’s get to it.

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: This is a featherweight battle, with Hioki a new signing for the UFC. Considered the best featherweight not named Jose Aldo prior to his arrival, this is presumably his chance to be introduced to the American market before getting a title shot. Roop is a middle of the pack featherweight. Hioki, according to his fight record, wins by submission a lot. Over half of Roop’s losses have been by submission. Roop also fought Leonard Garcia to a draw. If you can’t beat Leonard Garcia, odds are you can’t beat a top five featherweight. I guess that isn’t fair, but based on looking at Roop’s record he hasn’t been able to beat any of the guys who have been in the featherweight title picture the past two years. Hioki by decision.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson:
Good grief. The last time we saw Cro Cop, he was brutally knocked out by Brendan Schaub at UFC 128. Nelson was on the receiving end of a decision loss to Frank Mir back in May in one of the absolute worst fights of the year. Despite Joe Rogan stating that it showed Frank Mir’s lethal striking, it just showed two gassed heavyweights who could barely do a damn thing for a quarter of an hour. I digress, however. I can’t imagine Nelson getting Cro Cop to the ground to work any jiu jitsu, as Cro Cop has always had a solid takedown defense and Nelson is slower than molasses. I also can’t imagine Cro Cop knocking Nelson out since Cro Cop has not shown the killer instinct that marked his PRIDE stint, nor has Big Country proved easy to put down. This is going to go one of two ways: Cro Cop will win a decision by being the better striker and moving away from any massive blows or Nelson will blast him with the aforementioned massive blow in the first round. I tend to think Nelson is going to catch Cro Cop, but if Mirko can manage to get the fight into the second round and later, he should win. I imagine that the loser of this fight is in serious danger of being cut by the UFC, especially if that loser is Roy Nelson. I can’t stand to think of Mirko getting killed again, so I’m going to stick with PRIDE nostalgia and say Cro Cop by decision.

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione:
I never would have thought that “Meathead” from Ultimate Fighter Season 10 would have advanced his career to the point that he is fighting a gatekeeper like Kongo. This fight should prove whether or not Mitrione is more legit than someone like Brendan Schaub , as Cheick Kongo is someone who really only loses to guys who end up in the title picture. If you’re a scrub, you will get beaten (and probably hit with at least one illegal blow). I don’t particularly care for Mitrione and I get some sort of perverse enjoyment from watching Kongo knee someone in the nuts or grab the trunks, but I am surprisingly leaning towards Meathead in this fight. Kongo looked awful against Pat Barry despite winning, somehow not having the fight stopped after being knocked silly twice in the first round. On top of that, Meathead seems to be improving with each fight and can take a punch pretty well. I’m going to say Mitrione by first round knockout.

BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz:
I’m banking on this being fight of the night, as both men like to scrap (as BJ would put it). This features two of the best technical boxers in all of MMA, although I would give the edge in power to Penn and speed to Diaz. They are also two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport. For Diaz, I would go out on a limb and say Penn is the best opponent he has ever faced and this match should go a long way to determining whether his top five ranking at welterweight is justified. He should be coming into this fight with a significant advantage in size and cardio. BJ is likely the more well rounded and better fighter, due to his insane takedown defense and ability to utilize takedowns himself (see the first two rounds of the Fitch fight). Unlike when he fought larger guys like GSP and Fitch, BJ probably doesn’t have to worry too much about a strength disadvantage since Diaz isn’t going to clinch or shoot for takedowns. The key will be if BJ can make up the reach disadvantage to use his boxing. Also, not gassing out would help him considerably because Diaz almost certainly won’t. I think BJ will use takedowns a lot and use some ground and pound, as his jiu jitsu offense and defense should be enough to keep Diaz’s at bay. If BJ has a great first round, I think he can pull out a decision. If he has a bad first round, Diaz will win the decision. Neither man has ever been submitted and both have granite chins, so a finish is unlikely. As I think about it though, Diaz was almost knocked out by Paul Daley, so there is a chance that if BJ catches him that he will end the fight early. I don’t expect it though. I think that BJ is the more skilled fighter overall, so I’m going to go with Penn by decision.

Even though this card is short on names and losing out on a title fight, it should still be a pretty good show. Penn vs. Diaz is a great main event and the two heavyweight fights have the potential to be pretty entertaining. I know I’ll be ordering it, and if you get the chance you should see it too. As always, feel free to share your predictions on the evening here or on facebook.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Joe's UFC 137 Predictions

UFC 137 is tomorrow, so as is the tradition here on BBB I have composed my preview of the fights we’ll be seeing on the main card. Originally 137 was going to be a great show with Georges St-Pierre defending his Welterweight Championship against Nick Diaz in the main event, and a co-main of BJ Penn against Carlos Condit. Diaz then skipped out on the media events to promote the show so Condit moved up to fight GSP and Diaz was dropped down to fighting Penn. Then GSP got injured, so now the main event is Penn against Diaz and a strange and underwhelming co-main of Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione. However, the first two fights on the main card are in the featherweight and bantamweight divisions respectively and the little guys are always exciting so this could be a pretty good show. But on the other hand this seems like one of those cards where almost every fight is going to go to decision and be pretty underwhelming. Who knows. Here’s the predictions…

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1): I have no idea who either of these guys are, but looking at their records I can make some sort of feeble prediction. Hioki’s four losses have all been by decision, and for that to happen in 30 fights says a lot about his toughness. Twelve of his 24 wins have been by submission, and four of Roop’s seven losses have come by submission. In Roop’s last five fights he’s 2-2-1. In Hioki’s last five fights he’s 4-1, with the one loss coming as a split decision back in 2009. I’m thinking Hioki by second round submission.

Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curan (33-13-1): Once again, I haven’t a clue as to who either of these guys are, but Jorgensen is coming off a knockout win after losing a decision for the Bantamweight Championship. Curan is 34 with an insane 47 fights under his belt, but he’s got good submissions. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in a decision, and four of Jorgensen’s last six have gone to decision. I think Jorgensen wins by decision.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 1 NC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6): This is incredibly sad as it is essentially the Mirko Cro Cop retirement party. Mirko is a sad shell of the destroyer he once was. He used to possess devastating kicks, once describing them with the amazing quote, “Right leg, hospital; left leg, cemetery.” However he has been laid out in his last two fights and was demolished by heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos at the end of 09. Two underwhelming wins fill the gap between dos Santos brutalizing him and his two knockout losses. Cro Cop is cooked, and Roy Nelson will most likely finish his career off. Nelson is a disgusting slob of a person, coming into fights with a huge gut and obviously in no shape to go longer than a round, but he packs a devastating right hand. Sadly Mirko’s shown he can’t take many big shots anymore, nor can he give them out. Even before he submitted Pat Barry at 115 he was getting dropped by little punches the entire first round. Nelson is fat and disgusting and an insult to the sport, but he can take a beating in the unlikely even Mirko can throw out some strikes, and he can dish out some big punches of his own. Nelson wins by second round KO.

Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0): Mitrione is a rising star in the heavyweight division. Known affectionately as “Meathead” from his time on The Ultimate Fighter, he has gone from being one of the most easily hate-worthy fighters to being an easily likable prospect. It is amazing. As for Kongo, he possesses awesome knockout power. He’s coming off a knockout loss to Pat Barry which was total crap since Barry was out on his feet for about a minute and the ref never stopped the fight, then Barry his Kongo with a freak punch and put him down. Kongo is a tough guy, only being knocked out once in his career. This fight could either be really exciting or really boring since that’s how it goes with the heavyweights. I'm sure the first round will be kind of intense, then the pace is going to go way down. I don’t like picking against either one of them really, but I think Mitrione wins a decision.

BJ Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0, 1 NC): Though his record doesn’t make it seem so, BJ is the greatest lightweight of all time. Now he’s moved back up to welterweight, where he had won his first championship in the UFC against the legendary Matt Hughes. Nick Diaz is back in the UFC after a run as Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. BJ has been said to have the best boxing in MMA history, and Diaz’s striking is also very good. Both like to work submissions as well. It is a curious fight since BJ is known for coming out early and whooping ass, then gassing out later in the fight (see fights with Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre). BJ will be giving up some size but that has never mattered to him before. Diaz is extremely tough, having lost by TKO one time in the last 9 years. BJ's only true TKO loss came five years ago, while his other was just a corner stoppage since he was too tired and beaten up for go a fifth round with GSP. Neither has ever been submitted, and it is hard to see either fighter knocking the other out. As long as BJ doesn't gas out, this should be a very close fight. I feel bad picking against a Diaz brother, but BJ Penn is BJ Penn and you can't go against that. I think BJ will win a decision, though I could easily see him gassing out and getting beat convincingly by Diaz.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Great Moments in MMA History: BJ Penn vs. Matt Hughes I

Although MMA is a fairly new sport, especially when compared to most other popular mainstream sports, it has had more than a fair share of memorable events. One of my favorites would be the 2004 UFC Welterweight Title fight between then champ Matt Hughes and BJ Penn.

This one is unforgettable for several reasons. At the time, Matt Hughes was 35-3, hadn’t lost in three years ,and was the most dominant welterweight in MMA history. BJ Penn was “The Prodigy,” an incredibly gifted 24 year old jiu jitsu and boxing expert moving up to welterweight for the first time. Most people scoffed at Penn moving up to face Hughes. After all, he couldn’t get it together and win the title in his natural lightweight class. Now he was going to face an unbeatable powerhouse wrestler with endless cardio and relentless takedowns?

The prefight hype was fascinating. Hughes seemed offended that Penn would even consider a fight with him, especially after he had lost to Hughes’ friend and training partner Jens Pulver two years before. He also mocked Penn for training from his Hawaii home, while Hughes trained in the heartland of America during the winter. On the flipside, Penn seemed royally pissed that Hughes considered himself to be so much better than him. He felt Hughes was being needlessly condescending and that where and how he trained didn’t matter. At UFC 46, he would show Hughes and all the naysayers that Hughes wasn’t unstoppable.

Their fight took place on January 31, 2004. Most people expected Hughes to grind and wear Penn down, like he had to so many other opponents in the past. Instead, everyone was treated to the best BJ Penn anyone had ever seen. He showed what has since become a hallmark of his game and made him so difficult to beat for so many years: a legendary takedown defense. Normally when a fighter shoots and grabs a single leg, it is very difficult for the fighter defending the takedown to keep his balance and stay up. Penn was blessed with some of the greatest balance and flexibility the sport has ever seen and managed to stay up on one leg until he could break the attempt. With Hughes’ takedown game nullified, he was forced to rely on one of his weakest points: boxing. Penn easily won the stand-up and midway through the first round, dropped Hughes. While on his back, Hughes ate a hard punch to the face that stunned him. From there, Penn showed the submission skills he would become known for and locked in a rear naked choke that forced Hughes to submit with 21 seconds left in the round.

The upset happened. BJ Penn got his first taste of UFC gold, at a weight class no one would have expected to boot. He also got a taste of Matt Hughes, as the emotional Penn gave the dazed former champion a kiss on the face as soon as the fight was stopped. The championship win and celebration is one of the more memorable in UFC history and fans were excited to see what would happen next in a division that had previously been lorded over by Hughes for the better part of three years.

Unfortunately, we will never really know. Due to a contract dispute, Penn left the UFC after this fight and didn’t return until 2006. Hughes ended up winning the title back in October 2004 and held the UFC Welterweight Title for another two years. The two would tangle again after Penn’s return in what would be Hughes’ last successful title defense. In the UFC 63 rematch, Penn
pummeled Hughes for two rounds before gassing out and getting submitted in the third round. With the score tied at one each, they faced off for the final time in November 2010 at UFC 123. In this fight, Penn put the final stamp on their rivalry, blasting Hughes and knocking him out in 21 seconds.

While both men have had legendary careers with several accolades, the first match between Hughes and Penn is one of the most notable. It’s the most surprising and memorable loss in Matt Hughes’ career, coming at the peak of his run. For Penn it is his career defining win and showed what he is capable of when motivated or feels the odds are stacked against him. In terms of significance to the sport and the quality of this fight, Hughes-Penn I is something that all MMA fans should see at least once.