Wednesday, June 29, 2011

UFC 132 Predictions

Greetings readers!  It's been a long time coming, but I'm updating the blog with an easy post: predictions for this weekend's UFC 132.  It looks to be a great card, headlined by a main event of UFC Bantamweight Champ Dominick Cruz taking on "The California Kid" Urijah Faber and a co-main of Chris Leben vs. PRIDE legend Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva."  Since I'm typing this up while I'm at work, let's just get down to it.

Main Card
Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman: This is a lightweight scrap featuring two men who have each won seven of their past eight fights.  I don't know too much about Wiman besides the fact he was on a season of Ultimate Fighter in 2007 and didn't win.  I'm also not sure I've ever seen him fight.  I've seen Siver and he is an impressive kickboxer with a solid ground game.  He's coming off a decision win against top contender George Sotiropoulos and is looking like he could be a potential contender within the next six to twelve months.  I hate going with a fighter just because I know him more, but Siver has the more impressive record and a skillset I'm aware of.  Let's go with Siver by decision.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a welterweight fight featuring two of the top fighters in the division, with both men probably one or two fights away from a title shot.  Condit is coming off two impressive knockouts - a first round KO of Dan Hardy in October and a third round miracle TKO against Rory McDonald last June.  Kim has shown effective wrestling and grappling in winning fights over Amir Sadollah and Nate Diaz.  Condit has been out of action for a long time and is coming off of surgery, so ring rust could be a major factor for him.  I think Kim has the grappling to win this by decision, but Condit is exciting and fights hard.  I'm a fan of his and so I'm going to with Condit by 3rd Round TKO.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader: This fight has a better than forty precent chance of being really boring, as both men are wrestlers with some weak striking.  Bader is coming off his first loss ever after being tooled by Jon Jones and submitted.  Tito hasn't won a fight since beating the piss out of Ken Shamrock in 2006.  Since then he has lost a decision to Lyoto Machida (where he almost pulled off a submission), had a draw with Rashad Evans after having a point deducted for grabbing the cage, a split decision loss to Forrest Griffin that shouldn't have been split, and was dominated by Matt Hamill this past fall en route to a decision loss.  With the exception of the Hamill fight, he has only lost to top flight competition and he hasn't been finished in any of them.  He's been competitive for the most part, but he isn't good enough to win or bad enough to just get crushed like Chuck Liddell over the past few years.  Bader is another tough fight, as he was considered a top light heavyweight with a lot of potential before Jones tooled him.  It will be interesting to see how he recovers from that.  He should be able to beat Tito, as he is a younger version of of Ortiz.  I'll be cheering for Tito just because that dude deserves to win at least once more before he retires, but I'm almost certain this is going to be Bader by decision.

Co-Main Event
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben: This is a fight that has been a year in the making, but Wand had about fifteen surgeries and hasn't fought since February 2010, when he beat Michael Bisping by decision.  Leben took Silva's place in May and beat Yoshihiro Akiyama by third round submission in one of the best fights I've ever seen and then followed that up with a DWI and a first round knockout loss to Brian Stann this past January.  This should be an exciting brawl, since both men do not go to the ground and will stand and trade punches all day.  I think it is a near certainty someone is getting knocked out.  Leben's chin has come into question after Stann finished him in a way that had only been done once prior, and Silva's chin has been called into question consistently over the past few years.  I would like to see Wand go into PRIDE mode and beast on Leben with a knockout, but I think that his chin won't hold up to his opponent's punching power.  I want Wanderlei by 2nd round KO, but think it will be Leben by 2nd round KO.

Main Event
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber: This fight pits the dominant champ in Cruz, who has not lost in four years against Faber, the former featherweight kingpin and the only man to beat Cruz.  Cruz employs a technical striking style that, although lacking in finishing power, has not been deciphered by any opponent yet.  The odds of Cruz finishing Faber are pretty much nil, as no one finishes the California Kid.  Faber is in his third fight at 135 lbs. and his last fight was a disappointing decision win over Eddie Wineland.  What makes this fight especially interesting, other than Cruz attempting to avenge his lone loss, is that these two dudes can't stand each other.  They have been sniping at each other for a couple of years now, so it should be interesting to get to see them face off again.  Faber can't stand and box with Cruz, or he will lose a decision.  He needs to push the pace, bully Cruz against the cage, work some takedowns and try to throw him off his game early.  If he doesn't, he'll lose a decision.  I will be desperately cheering for a Faber win, as he is exciting and seems like a good dude.  I doubt how much Faber has left in the tank though.  He had to drop to bantamweight after it became apparent he could no longer compete for the title at featherweight, and his last fight at 135 was not very impressive.  Cruz, on the other hand, should be entering the prime of his career.  I think it's going to be Cruz by decision.

As always, feel free to leave your predictions on the comments page or my facebook page.

Monday, June 13, 2011

You Were Right LeBron, Karma is a Bitch

Note: This rant was started last night after the Mavs won and then finished today. I don’t know if it is coherent at all since I’m still so hyped that Shawn Marion has a ring and I don't proof read, but you’ll get over it.

“Crazy. Karma is a bitch”

With that tweet directed at the Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James set the basketball world on fire back in January. The Cavs of course are LeBron’s former team. The team LeBron shit all over for at least two seasons when talking about the idea of leaving in free agency. Then last summer he left Cleveland to “take his talents to South Beach” and join up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the Miami Heat. LeBron ended up tweeting that karma is a bitch because the Cavs lost by 55 to the Los Angeles Lakers and were on an 11-game losing streak. For some reason this pleased LeBron and he put up that tweet. I’m not sure how that is karma since they did nothing to deserve getting dumped on that way, but alright LeBron.

It gives me a great deal of pleasure to say 20 minutes after the Dallas Mavericks started celebrating their first NBA Championship, a year after The Decision, and after watching an entire career thus far of arrogance: Yes LeBron, karma is a bitch.

You see, after the Heat got their big three together, they had only Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley under contract. Beasley was obviously getting traded and people weren’t sure what was going to become of Chalmers. So the Heat did what any organization would do in that position: they had a championship celebration.

Using the slogan “Yes. We. Did.,” the Heat had a stage show like something out of a Kiss concert, complete with pyro and smoke bombs. The Big 3 popped out of the stage and Bosh was flexing and screaming like an idiot, LeBron danced, and Wade stood around with his herpes. They said they were a dynasty, despite not even having a roster. LeBron promised more than six championships, as if that would somehow make them all better than Michael Jordan. They danced and pranced then were confused as to why people hated them. Maybe if you weren’t a team with a proven choker (LeBron) and a guy who thinks he is a superstar but isn’t (Chris Bosh) and a guy who gives STDs to his wife (Dwyane Wade) and maybe if you didn’t celebrate like you won it all before playing a single game, people wouldn’t care so much.

That pre-season, pre-having a roster championship celebration set the tone for the entire NBA season. You were either a fair-weather NBA fan and a frontrunner and wanted Miami, or you were a true fan of the game and wanted to see them lose to a team who embodied the concept of five people on the court working together over the idea of three stars and a bunch of scrubs. Or of course you were my Mom and had been a Heat fan since the 90s.

Either way, the Heat celebrated and partied it up all summer and talked such shit about how they’d top the 1996 Chicago Bulls’ all-time best NBA record of 72-10 and they’d win the championship. They flexed and pranced around once the season started and they would beat on bad teams. Of course they had a shit record against the league’s elite, but that didn’t matter. They were riding high.

Now here we sit on this glorious Sunday night and the Heat have fallen short in every way imaginable. How did it happen? It happened because of the perfect storm brought on by the basketball gods. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after the game, “None of us really expected this.” Really, Coach Spo? Yes I understand you don’t go into a game expecting to lose, but deep down you couldn’t have seen this Finals Fail coming? Let’s look at some stuff that went down.

First off, the Heat had problems closing out games throughout the regular season because the ball would go to LeBron James and never Dwyane Wade. There’s nothing I need to say since it was put together wonderfully in this video. There was that beautiful span of time when they fell to the Bulls, Knicks, Magic, and Bulls again because of moments of unclutch play. For some reason against Boston and Chicago in the playoffs, LeBron James shattered the old playoff image of him being a choker. He closed out games against those teams like he was one of the best ever. But even then, Erik, you had to realize all good things come to an end. We’ll get back to that.

Over in the Western Conference, Dirk Nowitzki lost his fucking mind. He had a great season and should’ve been up with Dwight Howard as an MVP candidate not named Derrick Rose. People thought the Mavericks could potentially contend, but after years of failure previous they had their doubts. In the first round against Portland, many people thought Dallas would be sent packing. In Game 4, Dallas blew a 23 point lead and lost. People thought that was the end of the Mavericks and Dirk. We’d have to chalk Dirk up as another very good player who couldn’t hit that next level. Whoops.

Dallas came back from that loss and reeled off 7 straight victories, including a sweep of the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. Then people thought the OKC Thunder would beat Dallas, but Shawn Marion played defense like it was 2006 to shut down Kevin Durant and Dirk continued his dominance and the Mavericks made the Finals once again, and once again they found themselves against the Heat. Dirk had played out of his mind all season and looked to finally destroy the notion of him being soft and a choker. After hitting so many big shots and leading the Mavs to numerous comeback victories in the post season, people still weren’t convinced Dallas could compete with Miami’s star power.

Sorry, but I’ll take the team that puts five people out there working together over the team with three egomaniacs treating the sport like a pick up game that will be so easy any day. As Bill Simmons put it, “8 always beats 3,” referring to the depth of Dallas over the star power of the Heat. Miami took Game 1, but in Game 2 they fucked up when LeBron and Wade started celebrating taking a 15 point lead with 7 minutes left. Dirk and Co. came to life and punished Miami, evening the series at 1 apiece. Miami took Game 3, but Dirk’s heroics despite being sick as hell came through in Game 4 to even the series again. The Mavs made the big plays down the stretch and came up with the win in Game 5 as well. This brought us to the deciding Game 6 in Miami. Spoelstra and the Heat may have been saying they weren’t in trouble and were still confident, but it sure didn’t seem that way.

Remember when I said I’d get back to LeBron closing out Boston and Chicago? Here we go. LeBron could close out Boston with ease since Rajon Rondo, their best player, was hurt, thus costing the Celtics down the stretch in games. Shaq was hurt as well and the C’s still hadn’t fully incorporated the new guys from that trade. All of this made them inferior to Miami, thus giving LeBron confidence to hit shots since he saw their weaknesses. Chicago is a young team with much to learn, and Luol Deng and Derrick Rose were cooked from playing so many minutes so LeBron had no problems hitting big shots and flexing and dancing. They were inexperienced and uncomfortable in the big games so LeBron had that swagger.

But once he went up against a crafty veteran team who had nothing holding them back from bringing it, LeBron did a disappearing act. Just like he always does. Shawn Marion outplayed LeBron in at least two games and his defense on the self professed “King” helped keep him out of the game. Of course LeBron is also mentally weak so once he realized Dallas was going to fight to the end he collapsed and relied on Dwyane Wade to have an amazing series. LeBron was nowhere to be found in the fourth quarter of many of the games. He had only 11 fourth quarter points going into Game 6. For the series he finished with 18 fourth quarter points…but Chris Bosh had 23. Dirk Nowitzki had 62 and was a death dealer in the clutch. LeBron was the one being shit on.

The Heat went back to their old ways of being unable to close out games as they gave up numerous fourth quarter leads to Dallas. Spoelstra had to realize that his team suddenly closing games was too good to be true, right? He had to realize that LeBron was missing during the big moments and had a history of doing this and history is always doomed to repeat itself...right?

LeBron came out in Game 6 and hit his first few shots while Dirk started 1-12. Dirk went 8-15 the rest of the way while scoring 10 points in the fourth and sealing the victory. LeBron had 21 points on 9-15 shooting, but if you saw that game you knew he was ineffective. He was driving to the hoop then passing the ball away. Dwyane Wade may have shot poorly but he at least went all out. In the biggest game of the year LeBron had as many turnovers as assists (6) and went 1-4 from the foul line. He hit his first four shots then suddenly didn’t seem to have much of an effect and finished with the quietest 21 points I’ve seen in a big game. Sure he had 7 points in the fourth, but how many times did he get the ball then whip it away to Mario Chalmers as if Wade's STDs were dripping off the ball?

And the moral of the story is as LeBron said those few months ago: Karma is a bitch. Before Game 5 LBJ and Wade were mocking Dirk’s sickness in Game 4 by fake coughing and putting their shirts over their faces like Dirk did in his postgame interview. Cool LeBron. Real tough for a guy who got outplayed by Shawn Marion. When that video game out after Dallas had already won Game 5, the Heat had signed their death warrant for Game 6. Dirk may have shot poorly initially, but in that fourth quarter it was like he had the game sliders all the way up and began raining fire down on the Heatles, sending them on a long and bitter vacation.

Not to mention the fans in the arena in Miami! As Dallas owner Mark Cuban said, “Our fans punked the shit out of the Heat fans.” There were an awful lot of blue shirts in support of Dallas for that final game. Even Miami’s frontrunner fans knew they were screwed. Hell with two minutes left in the game Miami’s weak ass fans were already walking to the exits. LeBron choked in the biggest series of his life and did it in front of a crowd unwilling to support him and the team. It was beautiful.

That’s what happens when you mock a player who is demolishing your team. That’s what happens when you declare your team a dynasty when there’s no roster. When you act like LeBron and the Heat act, that crazy thing called karma gets you and you choke and fail miserably on the biggest stage in the sport. Chris Bosh acted like he was a superstar and such hot shit, and his season ends with him falling on the ground sobbing like a baby.

Now LeBron is saying he’s fine since he’s got a better life and more money than all of us and people have to get back to their lives and stop ripping on Miami. Hey fuck face, if you don’t want the scrutiny then don’t always try to draw attention to yourself. Don’t have championship celebrations before there’s even a team. Don’t go on television and have an hour infomercial that culminates in you kicking your former team in the balls for no good reason. Don’t shit all over a sports city that has been shit on for decades then say only your real fans will understand this move. Don’t tweet stupid shit about taking joy in your former team losing when clearly they were never built to withstand something like you leaving. Don’t dance and flex while you beat inferior teams. Don’t mock Dirk Nowitzki for being sick since he went out and played like Jordan and you played like Karl Malone.

Here is a guy with so much skill and who could be so amazing, but he acts in ways which draw attention to himself, and then he says everybody else is messed up when they don’t like how he acts. He refers to himself as “King James” and acts so arrogant, but then when the going gets tough he calls out everybody else like we all did something. Hell Chris Bosh played better than him in the biggest game of the year! LeBron is a total douche and so cocky for no reason, but once again it is summer time and LeBron James is not an NBA Champion.

People thought Jason Terry’s tattoo of the Championship trophy would be the ultimate stat curse in NBA history, but it appears as though all those lavish celebrations in South Beach and that talk all summer about domination was the real curse. Dwyane Wade mockingly said back in March, “The world is a better place because the Heat is losing.” I don’t know if the world as a whole is a better place, but the basketball world certainly is. The concept of a team still rules over all, and for that all real fans of the game should be pleased.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Bull Market...

As of this writing, the Chicago Bulls are down three games to one in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat.  This is happening despite the Bulls having better defense and better depth than Miami.  It was presumed that their coaching was better too, with Tom Thibodeau being considerably better than the Heat's Erik Spoelstra, who was thought to be outmatched by the star power on his team.  Turns out, this has been a bit unfounded, as Spo has managed to key in on Derrick Rose by using LeBron James and Chris Bosh to double team the MVP and force him into bad shots or to pass to teammates for bad shots or easy shots that miss.  Despite Coach Thib's reputation as a master planner and someone who works tirelessly to make adjustments, he has not managed to fully do so.  Sure Boozer has managed to start playing better, but Chris Bosh is running train on the Bulls on the other end and he should be the easiest one for Chicago to stop.

In order to win a series against Miami, a team just has to do the following things: Stop Bosh, stop Wade or LeBron, and play efficient offense that doesn't allow the Heat to get on the fast break.  Stopping both Wade and LeBron is damn nigh impossible, but keying in on one and then stopping Bosh is definitely within the realm of possibility and Chicago has not managed to do so consistently.

More specific to Chicago's game plan is that Rose needs to get around 25-30 points a game and shoot at a relatively efficient rate (for him).  Last night he had 23 points, but he was 8-27 from the field.  This whole series he has shot poorly and this is due to the aforementioned Bosh/James double teams that they have not figured out how to work around.  The team also needs strong contributions from Boozer and Deng.  Last night they delivered by each scoring 20 points, but this was cancelled out by the stinkbomb Rose threw out.  They also need a more consistent output from Joakim Noah, but he has really struggled since his 14 rebound performance in the series opener.

While Boozer has played better the past two games, he has really struggled this postseason and most of the second half of the year.  He has not managed to be fully integrated into the frontcourt with Noah and has not managed to become the second option that Chicago desperately needed in order to make it this season.  Hopefully after a healthy offseason, he can learn to mesh better with the team and develop a better chemistry with Derrick Rose in order to get a better pick and roll game together.

The lack of a shooting guard that can create his own shot has also hurt the Bulls this postseason.  Someone like Jason Richardson could have come in handy, as he can shoot the three ball and get to the hoop and take pressure off Rose.  Free agent guards this summer include Jamal Crawford, OJ Mayo, Caron Butler,  and Richardson and acquiring one of them should be a priority for Chicago.  The offense is in dire straits, living or dying with Rose and he needs some kind of help so he doesn't burn out or get injured doing all the work on that end.

I think the biggest issue with Chicago, for better or worse, has been Tom Thibodeau.  On the positive side, he managed to lead change the culture in Chicago and make them a relevant team again.  On the negative, he has to learn to become a playoff coach.  He put so much into the regular season and the team responded by having the best record in the NBA.  His intensity and drive really pushed this team into achieving at a higher level than most people expected.  The problem is that this same determination has left them ill-equipped for the playoffs.  The team had no higher gear for the postseason.  Every team they faced had already seen them play their hardest and at the best they are capable of in the regular season.  Deng played an absurd amount of minutes during the season and has been unable to keep up that level in the playoffs.  Last night, Noah was exhausted.  Rose has to be worn down from carrying such a heavy burden all year.  Chicago gave it their all most games, even when other teams weren't and this came back to haunt them, as they were not prepared for when teams like Indiana or Atlanta gave more effort than they did during the regular season.  For Thibs, his biggest task this offseason is to learn to pace himself and the team better so that they can play more consistently down the stretch when it matters most.  If not, he'll end up as Doug Collins 2.0 - a great regular season coach that can get a team headed on the right track, but ultimately too demanding and relentless to push a team over the hump.  Whether or not he can do that, we'll see next season (or as a Bulls fan, games 5, 6, and 7, followed by the Finals).

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

UFC 130 Predictions

This Saturday is UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill.  It was originally UFC 130: Edgar vs. Maynard III for the UFC Lightweight Title, but both men had to pull out with injuries.  The co-main event of Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Matt "The Hammer" Hamill has been promoted to main event, while Frank Mir and Roy Nelson are bumped to co-main status.  Seeing as how I can't stand Maynard or Edgar and these two fights have the potential to be perversely entertaining, it is quite the upgrade in my book.  Actually this card isn't bad, featuring a welterweight scrap between Thiago Alves and Rick Story, as well as a middleweight fight between Brian Stann and Jorge Santiago.  Since I'm at work and God knows that I never set aside time to update this thing, let's get right into it.

Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago: Stann is coming off an impressive KO win over Chris Leben back in January and was lobbying for a fight with Wanderlei Silva, but instead gets Jorge Santiago, who is returning to the UFC.  In his first stint, Santiago went 1-2 and has gone 11-1 since.  This should be a good stand up fight between men who excel in striking.  Santiago is more polished and experienced, but Stann should only be getting better at this point in his career.  I'm going to with Stann by decision, as he has fought the better competition and should be a fighter on the rise, where Santiago should be somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Thiago Alves vs Rick Story: This welterweight match pits top-five weltwerweight Thiago Alves against the entertaining and tough Rick Story.  Alves seems to have overcome some of his issues with weight cutting due to a switch to the Dolce Diet, helping him outlast John Howard by decision in his last fight.  If Alves shows up in good shape, this should be his fight to win.  He is three fights removed from his decision loss to GSP, so a few wins could move him back up the ladder.  For Story, a win could propel him into the top ten in the division.  I lean towards Alves by decision since he hasn't really finished anyone in a while and Story is a solid dude who has only lost by decision.  On the other hand, Thiago's striking should be much better than Story's, and his takedown defense should be enough to keep him out of trouble.

Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne: This battle features two of the lower tier fighters in the heavyweight division, although to be fair there is only an upper tier and a lower tier.  Struve is a decent prospect, but the dude needs to add some weight to his 6'11 frame so he doesn't crumple every time he gets blasted.  His fights are usually pretty exciting and at age 23, he has a lot of time to grow and mature as a fighter.  Browne, I know nothing about other than that he had a lame fight with Cheick Kongo and he beat James McSweeney, a castmember from the awful Ultimate Fighter Season 10.  If I remember correctly from the Kongo scrap, Browne's takedown and ground defense is not great and Struve has a decent ground game.  Barring a first round mauling, I like Struve by second round submission.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson: This fight cracks me up since I, as well as everyone I'm watching this card with, cannot stand either man.  Mir is obnoxious and not nearly as good as he likes to think and Nelson is a fat ass novelty act.  The intrigue in this fight comes to two things - Nelson beat Mir six years and 60 pounds ago in a jiu jitsu grappling competition and the winner of this fight could be one or two fights away from a title shot, with their next opponent being the winner of Schaub-Nogueira in a title eliminator.  I think that Mir is probably better standing than Nelson and they are probably even on the ground, with Nelson having a better top game than Mir does.  I've never seen Nelson have to work off his back, but Mir has always been good on his back unless against Lesnar or Carwin.  I would expect this fight to stay standing, and if Junior Dos Santos and his skilled striking couldn't KO Nelson, I don't see how Mir will.  I do think that Mir is probably just above Nelson in terms of ranking, with Nelson being a solid midlevel heavyweight and Mir being in between the middle and upper level.  I think this fight goes to Mir by decision.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Matt Hamill: This fight is hilarious, as Rampage is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and has main evented several cards, while Hamill's biggest fights are his DQ win against Jon Jones due to illegal elbows in a fight where he was getting straight mauled and a decision win over the ghost of Tito Ortiz.  Jackson was supposed to fight Thiago Silva on this card, but Silva was taken off after testing positive for PEDs after his last fight and Hamill begged to get a crack at Rampage.  In theory, Rampage should knock Hamill's head into the cheap seats, but his conditioning and motivation are always suspect.  This rings especially true for this fight, as Hamill is older and slower, his takedowns are nullified by Jackson's takedown defense, and he cannot stand and trade punches with him.  Rampage has nothing to gain from this fight and has been openly discussing retiring in two years.  That said, he knows that if he has an impressive showing against Hamill, he will probably be fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title this fall against Jon Jones, which should be a big seller and earn him a fat paycheck.  While a Hamill decision win wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever since the odds of him working far harder than Rampage are not too shabby, I think Rampage has been annoyed a bit by Hamill's trash talk and knows that he can put down Hamill.  Also, undersized light heavyweight Rich Franklin put Hamill down with a liver kick and Rampage hits much, much harder than "Ace."  I'm going with Rampage by second round KO.

That concludes the predictions for UFC 130.  My brother may put up predictions; he may not.  If the Bulls lose to the Heat this week there may be a period of mourning here at Black Belt Basketball, but I digress a bit.  If you want to share your thoughts and predictions on the upcoming card, feel free to leave a comment here or on my or Joe's Facebook walls.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Zuffa Acquisition of Strikeforce: The Fights I Would Like To See.

As reported several weeks ago, Zuffa purchased Strikeforce, adding another large stable of fighters to the UFC. Details are still sketchy about when and how Strikeforce will be absorbed, due to its existing deal with Showtime that expires in 2014. While a merger is a long ways away and Strikeforce is a clear second in established talent to the UFC, there are still several excellent fighters that could be transferred over that would lead to some exciting bouts. I am going to take this space to go over some of them, and discuss their likelihood of happening. For the sake of brevity, I am going to limit it to four fighters and the fights I’d most like to see. I’m going to leave out Dan Henderson, as he was a UFC fighter until recently and there aren’t many people he hasn’t went up against at this point.

Alistair OvereemThe ‘Reem is the man I most want to see inside the Octagon. There are several matchups that would be interesting. Here’s the list in descending order:
Vs. Cain Velasquez: This one is self-explanatory, as it pits the Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ against his UFC counterpart. Cain has never faced someone Overeem’s size that can actually strike and not curl up in the fetal position when hit, and Overeem hasn’t faced someone with the relentless pace and wrestling of Cain.
Vs. Junior Dos Santos: This would pit the best hands in the UFC Heavyweight Division against the reigning K-1 Grand Prix Champion. Junior can outbox most anyone, but he would have a tough time against Overeem’s size. It would be a great striking battle that would really test how good Junior really is.
Vs. Brock Lesnar: Two behemoths in the cage, plus Overeem wouldn’t gas out like Carwin did. It would be interesting to see what would happen when Lesnar gets punched by someone of Overeem’s power. Plus if he went for those half-assed takedowns around the ‘Reem’s chest, Alistair would have no problem using the standing guillotine choke.
Vs. Shane Carwin: Someone would get knocked out. Hard.
The odds of Overeem coming into the UFC: Near certainty. Alistair is on friendly terms with Dana White and since getting stiffed on his paycheck from K-1, is more willing to commit to the UFC’s contract demands. Also,, heavyweight is always the weakest division in the UFC, so they would be more than willing to bring in a beast like the ‘Reem.

Nick DiazDiaz is one of my favorite fighters of all-time and there are a bunch of fights I would love to see him in.
Vs. BJ Penn: Two of the best technical boxers and jiu jitsu practitioners in all of MMA, this would be exciting both on the ground and standing. BJ would love the challenge of a rangy fighter like Diaz, and it would be a tougher fight for Nick than he has fought in some time.
Vs. Georges St. Pierre: While I think GSP would clearly win this because of his superior wrestling, it would still be a dangerous fight for him. He hasn’t faced anyone with the excellent jiu jitsu of Diaz, plus his boxing is not as techincally sound as Nick’s is. Like I said, I would expect GSP to win hands down, it would be a more competitive and interesting fight than at least his last two or three defenses.
Vs. Dan Hardy: I think Nick would submit him in about two rounds, but this fight should happen for the shit talkng alone. It would be legendary.
Vs. Nate Diaz: Brother vs. Brother. Both men are crazy. Why not?
Odds of Diaz coming into the UFC: Toss up. Odds would say that he almost has to, otherwise who else will he fight? He seems to get along well with Dana White, but Diaz is a wild car and it’s damn nigh impossible to figure out what his plans are.

Muhammad “King Mo” LawalA former light heavyweight champion for Strikeforce, King Mo has some of the best wrestling in MMA and is still improving as a fighter. I’m not the biggest fan of his, but I would like to see him in the UFC to see just how good he is and can be.
Vs. Rampage Jackson: Evidently, these two don’t like each other very much. There is a clip on You Tube showing the two of them jawing at each other and it is both hilarious and awkward. I don’t know if the fight would go much differently than Rampage’s fight with Rashad Evans went, but I wouldn’t mind finding out.
Vs. Phil Davis: Two of the up and coming fighters in their weight classes, this would pit two men with similar experience and abilities against each other. I would give a slight advantage in striking to King Mo, but an advantage on submission grappling to Davis. This match would go a long way towards determining who else could be considered the future of the sport with Jon Jones.
Vs. Lyoto Machida: He already defeated one “cerebral” striker in Gegard Mousassi, but Machida is more elusive, more cerebral and a better striker and grappler than Mousassi. He is also a considerably better striker than King Mo. On the other hand, the only wrestler that Machida has faced was Rashad Evans, and ‘The Dragon’ made him look foolish. King Mo is bigger and stronger than Rashad, so it would be interesting to see how Machida fares.
Odds of Lawal coming into the UFC: Pretty good. He has decent name recognition in the sport and with the UFC marketing team behind him, could really become a mainstream star. Besides, there is no other promotion in America that he could fight and make a name for himself in and I don’t think he is embroiled in any disputes with Zuffa.

Fedor EmelianenkoAt one time the world’s best heavyweight, Fedor is at a bit of a crossroads in his career now. His best days are obviously behind him, but there are still a few dream matches that it would be worth seeing him in.
Vs. Randy Couture: A fight that fans have been clamoring for for nearly a decade, to the point that both men were made the cover athletes for EA MMA. This fight has lost a bit of its luster due to both men’s rankings within the heavyweight division being lower than they were several years ago, but it would still be exciting to see the two men who were at the top of the Pride and UFC promotions for years go at it.
Vs. Brock Lesnar: Another fight that would have been more intriguing a year or two ago, but it still holds some interest since they were both ranked number one in their weight class within the past year. Fedor was recently pounded by a larger fighter in Antonio Silva, but has historically fared well against bigger men. Lesnar is much more physically imposing than nearly everyone Fedor has been up against, but his skill level is lower than that of Antonio Silva and some of the other fighters Fedor has faced. For Lesnar, it would be the chance to beat someone other than Frank Mir and a much smaller and older Randy Couture and add an impressive name to his resume.
Odds of Fedor joining the UFC: Slim to none. Fedor and his management team have been engaged in a war of words with Dana White for years now over a wide range of topics. The chances of Fedor fighting in Strikeforce again are pretty slim, so I would say the chances of seeing him in the Octagon are pretty much nil.

There are several other fighters under the Strikeforce banner in every weight class that will be exciting additions to the UFC over the next few years. It is going to be both interesting and challenging to see how Zuffa absorbs such a large stable of fighters to their already massive roster.

Bulls vs. Heat: A long time coming

It began in December 4th, 2009. The 13-5 Cleveland Cavaliers went up against the 7-9 Chicago Bulls. Just a month earlier the Bulls eked out a one point victory against the Cavs. When they faced off again, LeBron James made sure to bask in the glory of beating on a team that had lost five of six in the games previous and was below .500. LeBron danced and pranced as the Cavs were blowing out the Bulls, which prompted Joakim Noah to start jawing at him. Keep in mind the Cavs were predicted to finish with the best record in the NBA and did end up doing that, while people didn’t even know if the Bulls would make the playoffs. We've never seen LeBron dance while beating a good team.

LeBron’s arrogance on that night and through the rest of the season prompted Noah to say he wanted to face off against Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls battled back from injuries to their entire starting line up and managed to secure the 8 seed, granting Noah his wish of playing Cleveland. Noah supplied classic quotes about the city of Cleveland and every game was closely contested even though it only lasted five games. Derrick Rose and Noah had a great series but the Cavs eliminated them. The Cavs went on to get embarrassed by the Boston Celtics in the next round, and the years of rumors about LeBron leaving Cleveland blasted to historic levels.

At the same time, Chris Bosh of the Toronto Raptors made it clear before the season even ended that he had no intention of staying come summer. He tanked most of the season and seemed disinterested in the Raptors’s success, or lack thereof. He even took to Twitter asking where he should play the 2010-11 season. Meanwhile in South Beach, Dwyane Wade seemed like he might be leaving Miami since they had dropped off hard since winning the 2006 Championship. An ass-kicking at the hands of the Celtics in the first round of the 2010 playoffs when many thought the Heat would knock off Boston seemed to be the straw that would break the camel’s back.

When the free agency period began in July following the season, Bosh made it clear he was going to just follow Wade or LeBron. Wade and Bosh both met with the Chicago Bulls multiple times and it seemed like Chicago was going to be their likely destination. LeBron James had his ego stroked the most, carrying out his decision over the course of a week and inviting six teams to meet with him and pitch their plans for the future. They were the Clippers, Nets, Knicks, Cavaliers, Bulls, and Heat. Chicago seemed like the likely pick early on, but when Wade and Bosh said they were uniting in Miami, everybody knew where LeBron was going.

In one of the most unbelievable (and not the good kind) moments in sports history, LeBron made ESPN devote an hour to his choice in a program called The Decision. It was an hour long infomercial about his self-proclaimed greatness, which culminated in him going on live national television and kicking the Cavaliers organization in the nuts. That is another rant for another time. LeBron made his decision by saying, “I’m going to take my talents to South Beach.” LeBron headed down to Miami and held lavish celebration after lavish celebration. The Heat organization even had the big three get together for what was essentially a championship celebration before the season even began. The line in the sand was drawn: You were either jumping on the band wagon, or you wanted to see these showboats get beat.

But while other teams were falling head over heels for LeBron, the Chicago Bulls were not. Derrick Rose texted James one time to tell him he’d like to play with him, Noah reached out but never heard back, Carlos Boozer reached out to LeBron briefly after he signed with Chicago, and the Bulls made their pitch in LeBron’s little free agency summit. But as evidenced with Rose’s lack of eagerness to sway LeBron, Chicago was prepared to live without him. The Bulls did however want Dwyane Wade. Derrick Rose contacted Wade multiple times about coming to Chicago, but Wade never responded. What would happen in Chicago after The Decision would shape a season almost nobody other than die hard fans and the Bulls organization expected.

Joakim Noah was seen walking through the streets with a huge grin on his face after LeBron announced he was going to Miami. He seemed genuinely glad he wouldn’t have to team up with James. Noah even went so far as to say, “It’s perfect.” He even came out and said that the Bulls would be the team that would take it to Miami when everything was on the line. Tough talk for a guy on a team people expected to finish maybe around the 4 or 5 seed.

Derrick Rose was so driven by the way LeBron, Wade, and Bosh acted that he went into the gym and busted his ass all summer to become a killer. He improved his defense, his shooting, his passing, and he came into training camp wondering out loud about winning the Most Valuable Player award. Again, tough talk for a guy on a team who people didn’t think would amount to the Celtics or Magic or the new superbeast in Miami.

The Bulls hired Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach and he along with executives Gar Forman and John Paxson built a roster that would end up becoming the deepest in the league. Thibodeau’s defense-first mindset took hold over the roster and they were primed to do serious damage over the course of the season.

Then the season began with Miami as the league’s biggest tale, but with injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah somehow Derrick Rose carried the Bulls to elite status. As the season went on, Rose built a reputation for being a great closer while the Heat’s inability to win close games made them an easy target. The Bulls beat Miami in all three regular season meetings, never winning by more than four but still doing damage. In fact after the third loss to Chicago, Heat players were crying in the locker room. But Chicago still wasn’t on the top of Miami’s hit list.

All summer the Heat built themselves up with the mission of beating the Boston Celtics. The C’s were the defending Eastern Conference champs and LeBron and Wade wanted revenge for their post-season failures against them. All year their focus was to take it to Boston. The Heat got their wish, dismantling the old Celtics in five games and making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. But now that they've got there, they’re facing a team that has prepared for this since the summer.

The Bulls have the MVP in Derrick Rose and the Coach of the Year in Tom Thibodeau. They have the deepest roster in the league and the best defense. While they lacked the flashiness of the Heat, all season they’ve displayed the heart it seems Miami is too often missing. And all season they worked their asses off to get the best record in the NBA. The catalyst for all of this amazing success the Bulls are enjoying this year? The Miami Heat.

Just the other night after eliminating the Atlanta Hawks, Noah stated this is what the Bulls have wanted all season. Rose and Noah have wanted to send a message since last summer. They’ve wanted to prove themselves to the big three. Rose, Noah, and the entire Bulls team are out to show that while the Heat’s big three are concerned with the glamour and notoriety that comes with success, there is a hard-working team that is all about winning regardless of who gets the credit for it. That is what makes this next part so painful.

While it is no secret I am a die hard Bulls fan, I have to state that my prediction for this series is the Heat in six. Derrick Rose can’t be the only Bull to create if they want to win, Carlos Boozer needs to consistently perform well if they want to win, and Luol Deng needs to survive playing 45 minutes of a 48 minute game every night. All of those becoming realities seem too unlikely against a team like Miami. Also since the NBA does pick who they want (if you type in “rigging games” in a Yahoo search the first Also Try result is “nba rigging games”), I can’t imagine the Bulls getting to the foul line anywhere near as much as the Heat since Miami making the Finals would be a huge story.

But NBA conspiracies aside, the Bulls have only sparingly been dominant in the post-season. They’re going to need to be dominant every night if they want to win this series. However with Miami's focus being on Boston and LeBron acting like he won the championship following the victory against the C's there is a chance Miami is not ready for what the Bulls can bring. While I’m sure the result of the series will leave me with massive heartache, I’m so pumped for this series just because of the build up. Chicago never really wanted LeBron and they’ve wanted to slap the taste out of his mouth in the playoffs for a long time. Now with Derrick Rose on the cusp of solidifying his place as the game’s top player, this series takes on a whole new level of intensity. Game 1 is tonight at 8. I don’t know what is going to happen, but I know we might be in for some of the most intense basketball of the season.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

UFC 129: Thoughts and What's Next?

UFC 129 was the other night and aside from a stinker of a main event between Georges St. Pierre and Jake Shields, was one of the best cards all the way through in a long, long time.  Lyoto Machida brutally finished Randy Couture's career with a crane kick to the jaw that sent teeth flying from the Natural's mouth.  Jose Aldo put a massive hematoma on Mark Hominick's skull and then survived a massive beatdown in the fifth round to keep his UFC Featherweight Title.  In the opening fight, Ben Henderson became my favorite fighter in the 155 lb division after his exciting decision win over Mark Bocek.  GSP put on a weak boxing exhibition and was actually outstruck by the flatfooted and awkward Jake Shields.  More on all this once we break down each fighter and what he should be up to next.

Ben Henderson: Bendo showed a lot of tenacity in overcoming Bocek's takedowns and responding with violent flurries of punches and knees.  Although he didn't get the finish, he certainly threw down a fast paced beating and showed he can hold his own with at least the middle of the pack at 155.  I would like to see him up against Jim Miller or the loser of Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard to see where he stacks up amongst the elite of the division.

Vladimir Matyushenko: Pardon the pun, but the Janitor mopped the floor with Jason Brilz, flooring him in about 20 seconds.  A solid middle of the pack light heavyweight and 40 years old, Vlad is in no way going to ever be close to a title shot.  A match with Stephan Bonnar would be a decent scrap between two men in roughly the same caliber and ranking.  If Zuffa wanted to get nostalgic, it could put him up against Tito Ortiz in a rematch of their title fight from UFC 33 or against Little Nog, who he KOed in 2006.

Randy Couture: Retirement, and a dentist.  Machida kicked out two of his teeth, one of which was on the opposite side of his face from where he was kicked.  Randy, despite getting beaten severly, should be commended for even accepting this fight.  Machida is one of the best in the world at 205 and is easily one of, if not THE, best fighter Randy has gone up against.  Other fighters have avoided Machida like the plague, but Randy stepped up and took the challenge.  Not the best finish to a career, but nothing to be ashamed of either.

Lyoto Machida: Machida put up one of the most vicious knockouts ever with his crane kick on Couture.  I think that Lyoto stands the best chance of challenging and defeating Jon Jones, but he is still at least one win away from a title shot.  His unorthodox striking and angles, as well as his underrated grappling and unrelenting patience could stymie Jones much more than Rashad Evans' or Rampage Jackson's styles.  I would put him up against the winner of UFC 133's Rashad Evans-Phil Davis match, with that person facing the victor of Jon Jones and Rampage Jackson (presuming Rampage beats Matt Hamill at the end of the month).

Jose Aldo, Jr: Dana White has already announced that Chad "Money" Mendes is the next challenger for the 145 lb title, so that one is set in stone.  Hopefully Jose will put on a better performance than he did in this fight, where he gassed early and showed some signs of ring rust, although this may have been part of a rumored illness he was suffering from.  The thing about this fight that baffled me was that Aldo went away from the leg kicks after devastating Hominick with them in the first round.  If he had continued to use them, I'm certain Aldo would have finished him by the third or fourth round.  Despite this, he probably still should have gotten a doctor stoppage for the basketball sized bruise he put on Hominick's head.  Hopefully in his next defense, he can show UFC fans why he is regarded so highly.

Jake Shields: Boxing lessons.  I forgot how painful it is to watch Jake Shields stand and strike.  His feet are flat, his back is rigid, and there is absolutely no power coming from his hands.  Absolutely dreadful.  He should have been destroyed by GSP, but St. Pierre suffered a minor eye injury and basically stopped fighting.  In two fights in the UFC, Shields has yet to show why his signing there was such a major coup for Dana White.  Putting him up against Jon Fitch would provide him a chance to show his grappling skills against one of the two other best wrestlers in the UFC.  It would also provide me a card to skip so I don't have to watch either man bore me to tears.  Seriously though, a match with Jon Fitch or maybe Diego Sanchez (once he is done with Matt Hughes) could work to his strengths.

Georges St. Pierre: Not since Anderson Silva decided to make a mockery of Damien Maia has a man lost so much in victory.  GSP put up a real stinker of a performance in this fight.  He apparently suffered an eye injury from an eye poke in the second round and basically coasted after that.  His stand up, which has always been at worst effective, was able to be evaded by the striking inept Shields.  Between rounds, GSP was panicking about his eye to the point that the fight just should have been stopped if it was that hard for him to do anything.  More than anything, this fight convinced me that Georges has no business moving up and challenging Anderson Silva, as Silva would annihilate the St. Pierre that showed up in this fight.  Silva preys on weakness and this was the weakest I have ever seen GSP.  This was about more than not finishing a fight.  This was about basically giving up and looking to merely survive against an opponent that couldn't have done anything even if Georges stuck his chin right out for Shields to blast.  If Anderson saw someone so weak, he would punt his head clean off his shoulders.  Anderson had broken ribs against Chael Sonnen and continued to go at it, culminating in a submission victory.  I don't know that GSP has that fortitude.  Since losing to Serra, Georges has seemed to lose that killer instinct that he possessed when he ran roughshod over the welterweight division.  He fights not to lose more than he does to win.  This has only been exacerbated by giving him inferior challengers that pose no real threat to him.  That is why he should fight the Strikeforce Welterweight Champ Nick Diaz.  Diaz is a tough hombre and he won't let GSP coast at any point in a fight.  Nick would bring out the best in GSP because he doesn't let up, has strong boxing, and can work off his back.  His intensity and taunting would force Georges to either fight to finish like he did against Matt Serra, or lose.  There's no way he could coast against Diaz.  Nick just doesn't roll like that.  At this point in his career, GSP needs that kind of opponent more than ever, a man who can truly bring out the best in him and can test his mettle.

I'll probably write more on this topic, plus Anderson Silva at some other point in time.  In the meantime, if you saw the show and have any thoughts on it, please share.